• 제목/요약/키워드: Forest Change

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기후변화에 따른 임상분포 변화 및 탄소저장량 예측 - 용인시 산림을 기반으로 - (Estimating the Change of Potential Forest Distribution and Carton Stock by Climate Changes - Focused on Forest in Yongin-City -)

  • 정현용;이우균;남기준;김문일
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 임상도와 HyTAG 모형을 적용하여 기후변화에 따른 경기도 용인시 임상의 잠재 생육적지 분포 변화와 산림 재적 및 탄소저장량 변화를 예측하였다. 이를 위해 제5차 임상도와 전국산림자원조사를 이용한 생장모델을 적용하여 현재의 용인시 산림재적을 예측하였다. HyTAG 모형을 적용하여 10년 단위로 미래 100년 후까지 잠재생육 적지 분포를 예측하고, 생장모델인 대수차 변형을 이용하여 산림 재적을 산출하였다. 용인시 산림을 제5차 임상도를 이용하여 분석한 결과, 현재 침엽수림 37.8%, 활엽수림 62.2%로 분포하고 있었다. HyTAG 모형을 적용한 30년 후 임상의 분포는 침엽수림 0.13%, 활엽수림 99.97%로 변화하였으며, 60년 후에 용인시 전체의 임상이 활엽수림으로 분포하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 현재 산림탄소량은 1,773,862 tC(56.79 tC/ha)로 측정되었으며 HyTAG 모형을 적용한 50년 후에 탄소저장량은 4,432,351 tC(141.90 tC/ha), 100년 후에는 6,884,063 tC(220.40 tC/ha)로 예측되었다. HyTAG 모형에 따른 수종별 변화를 분석해 본 결과, 잣나무, 낙엽송, 리기다소나무, 소나무는 각각 10년, 30년, 30년, 50년 이후에는 기후에 적합하지 않는 것으로 예측되었으며, 모두 참나무류가 적합한 것으로 예측되었다.

Estimating Wood Weight Change on Air Drying Times for Three Coniferous Species of South Korea

  • Lee, Daesung;Choi, Jungkee
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.262-269
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    • 2016
  • The purposes of this study are to calculate the green and dried weight using wood discs, to figure out weight change on air drying times, and to develop the model of wood disc weight change for Larix kaempferi, Pinus koraiensis, and Pinus densiflora. The variables affecting the weight change were investigated, and the pattern of weight change over time was figured out through linear models. When comparing the stem green weight calculated using wood discs in this study with the weight table of Korea Forest Service, the weight was not significantly different for L. kaempferi and P. koraiensis. On the other hand, in comparison of stem dried weight, the weight was significantly different in all of three species. In addition, various measurement factors were examined to figure out the relationship with weight change, and air drying times and disc diameter were found as significant independent variables. Finally, two linear models were developed to estimate air drying times of three species, fit statistics were significant for practical use.

KBDI 가뭄지수를 이용한 SSP 기후변화 시나리오하의 충청지역 백두대간 산불 잠재력 전망 (Projecting forest fire potential in the Baekdudaegan of the Chungcheong region under the SSP scenario climate change using KBDI Drought Index)

  • 최재용;김수진;정휘철;김성열;문건수
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • Recently, climate change has been regarded as a major cause of large-scale forest fires worldwide, and there is concern that more frequent and severe forest fires will occur due to the level of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the daily Keetch and Byram Drought Index (KBDI) of the Baekdudaegan in Chungcheong region including Sobaeksan, Songnisan, and Woraksan National Parks were calculated to assess effect of climate change on the forest fire potential- severity of annual maximum KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. The present (2000~2019) and future KBDI(2021~2040, 2041~2060, 2081~2090) were calculated based on the meteorological observation and the ensemble regional climate model of the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with a spatial resolution of 1-km provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 6.5℃ increase and 14% precipitation increase are expected at the end of the 21st century. The severity of maximum daily KBDI increases by 48% (+50mm), and the frequency of high KBDI days (> 100 KBDI) increases more than 100 days, which means the high potential for serious forest fires. The analysis results showed that Songnisan National Park has the highest potential for forest fire risk and will continue to be high in intensity and frequency in the future. It is expected that the forest vulnerability of the Baekdudaegan in the Chungcheong region will greatly increase and the difficulty in preventing and suppressing forest fires will increase as the abundance of combustible materials increases along with climate changes.

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 소나무 임분의 재적 추정 (Estimating Stand Volume Pinus densiflora Forest Based on Climate Change Scenario in Korea)

  • 김문일;이우균;;;;최솔이;김창길;권태성
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제103권1호
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 우리나라 주요 수종인 소나무림을 대상으로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 시나리오에 따른 임목 재적의 시 공간적 변이를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 전국 규모의 예측을 위해 5차임상도와 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용하였으며, 기후와 공간의 변이가 임목 생장에 미치는 영향을 반영하기 위해 기상 및 지형인자를 반영한 생장모형을 적용하였다. 모형의 검증을 위해 시, 도별 산림통계와 모형 결과를 비교한 결과, 비교적 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화를 고려하였을 때, 소나무림의 임분 재적은 현재 $131m^3/ha$에서 2050년에는 $212.42m^3/ha$까지 증가 할 것으로 예측되었으며, 현재의 기후가 유지될 경우에는 $221.92m^3/ha$까지 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 일부 고산지대를 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 소나무림의 생장률이 감소할 것으로 예측되었으며, 특히 해안지역과 남부지역에서 생장률의 감소가 클 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해 기후변화가 소나무림 생장에 미치는 영향을 시 공간에 따라 정량화 할 수 있었으며, 이는 기후변화 적응을 고려한 산림관리 및 시업계획을 수립하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Water balance change at a transiting subtropical forest in Jeju Island

  • Kim, JiHyun;Jo, Kyungwoo;Kim, Jeongbin;Hong, Jinkyu;Jo, Sungsoo;Chun, Jung Hwa;Park, Chanwoo;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.99-99
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    • 2022
  • Jeju island has a humid subtropical climate and this climate zone is expected to migrate northward toward the main land, Korea Peninsula, as temperature increases are accelerated. Vegetation type has been inevitably shifted along with the climatic change, having more subtropical species native in southeast Asia or even in Africa. With the forest composition shift, it becomes more important than ever to analyze the water balance of the forest wihth the ongoing as well as upcoming climate change. Here, we implemented the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model (ED2) by initializing the key variables using forest inventory data (diameter at breast height in 2012). Out of 10,000 parameter sets randomly generated from prior distribution distributions of each parameter (i.e., Monte-Carlo Method), we selected four behavioral parameter sets using remote-sensing data (LAI-MOD15A2H, GPP-MOD17A2H, and ET-MOD16A2, 8-days at 500-m during 2001-2005), and evaluated the performances using eddy-covariance carbon flux data (2012 Mar.-Sep. 30-min) and remote sensing data between 2006-2020. We simulated each of the four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from four climate forcings (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5 from ISIMIP2b). Based on those 64 simulation sets, we estimate the changes in water balance resulting from the forest composition shift, and also uncertainty in the estimates and the sensitivity of the estimates to the parameters, climate forcings, and RCP scenarios.

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토지부문 온실가스 통계 산정을 위한 토지이용변화 평가방법 비교 (Comparison of Land-use Change Assessment Methods for Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Land Sector)

  • 박진우;나현섭;임종수
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.329-337
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    • 2017
  • In this study, land-use changes from 1990 to 2010 in Jeju Island by different approaches were produced and compared to suggest a more efficient approach. In a sample-based method, land-use changes were analyzed with different sampling intensities of 2 km and 4 km grids, which were distributed by the fifth National Forest Inventory (NFI5), and their uncertainty was assessed. When comparing the uncertainty for different sampling intensities, the one with the grid of 2 km provided more precise information; ranged from 6.6 to 31.3% of the relative standard error for remaining land-use categories for 20 years. On the other hand, land-cover maps by a wall-to-wall approach were produced by using time-series Landsat imageries. Forest land increased from 34,194 ha to 44,154 ha for 20 years, where about 69% of total forest land were remained as forest land and 19% and 8% within forest lands were converted to grassland and cropland, respectively. In the case of grassland, only about 40% of which were remained as grassland and most of the area were converted to forest land and cropland. When comparing land-cover area by land-use categories with land-use statistics, forest areas were underestimated while areas of cropland and grassland were overestimated. In order to analyze land use change, it is necessary to establish a clear and consistent definition on the six land use classification.

Experimental Throughfall Exclusion Studies on Forest Ecosystems: A Review

  • Park, Seunghyeon;Kim, Ikhyun;Kim, Beomjeong;Choi, Byoungkoo
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.213-222
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    • 2019
  • Climate change has been intensifying and affecting forest ecosystems. Over the years, the intensity and frequency of climate change have increased and the effects of climate change have been aggravating due to cumulative greenhouse gases such as CO2, which has resulted in several negative consequences, drought being the main threat among all. Drought affects forest ecosystems directly and indirectly. Insufficient soil moisture, due to drought, may affect the growth of plants and soil respiration (SR), and soil temperature may increase because of desiccated soil. In addition, the mortality rate of plants and soil microorganisms increases. As a result, these effects could reduce forest productivity. Thus, in this article, we have presented various research studies on artificial drought using throughfall exclusion, and we have mainly focused on SR, which is significantly related to forest productivity. The research studies done worldwide were sorted as per the main groups of Köppen-Geiger climate classification and intensively reviewed, especially in tropical climates and temperate climates. We briefly reviewed the properties among the exclusion experiments about the temperate climate, which mostly includes Korean forests. Our review is not a proof of concept, but an assumption for adequate investigation of drought effects in the Korean forest.

도농통합지역의 녹지환경정비모델에 관한 연구II -천안의 녹지구조변화를 중심으로- (A Study on the Urban Fringe Landscape Environment Model- The Analysis of Change in Forest Structure of Chonan city-)

  • 심우경;이진희;김훈희
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 1999
  • Landcover change is an important factor that changes structure and function of regional ecosystem. As the rise of concern on environment quality, many studies are trying to quantify and evaluate the landsacpe in recent days. In this study, using landscape indices with RS(Remote Sensing) and GIS(Geographic Information System) technology, spatio-temporal variations of areas and distribution of forest patches were examined in the Chonan from 1985 to 1996. Fragstats 2.0 was employed to analyze and compute 31 landscape indices from 52 landcover maps. A result of this study showed that area of forest and paddy decreased as a result of urban sprawl. Especially from 1993 to 1996, the change of land use progressed rapidly because of merging a city and a country in Chonan. The size of patch in forest had been smaller and irregular form, heterogeneity of size of forest patches within sub-basin increased, and variety of patch types around forest patches increased from 1985 to 1996.

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