• STI Policy Review
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.24-53
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• 2015

Foresight, a major methodological tool in the STI policy toolbox, has recently featured new directions in methodological development, becoming influenced by progress in information and communication technologies and online tools. However, no overview of these directions has been available so far. Based on a literature review, an interactive workshop, and an international expert survey as well as expert interviews, the research presented here attempts to shed light onto some of the relevant issues by providing a structured overview of recent changes in order to further the debate on the future directions of methodological development in foresight. The paper outlines four clusters of emerging approaches in foresight:Integrated qualitative and quantitative approaches, IT-based and automated foresight, experiential foresight including new forms of communication and interaction such as visualization and gaming, and open and crowd-sourced approaches. The benefits and challenges of the approaches known so far are categorized and summarized, and areas of potential use for each of the clusters in STI contexts are identified.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2000

This paper compares technology foresight activities of Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Australia, and the Netherlands with those of Korea in terms of their motives and purposes, procedures and methods, and utilization of foresight results. From the comparison, it has been found that although the foresight programs were started from similar motives and purposes, different approaches were adopted from one another depending on the characteristics of national innovation systems, national S&T policy directions, and level of science and technology capabilities of the countries. On the basis of the lessons drawn from our study, some recommendations are made for future foresight activities in Korea: clarifying purposes of foresight activities, preparing utilization strategy at the planning stage, promoting participants' learning and methodological elaboration, and so forth. Implications for policy makers are also discussed.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.69-89
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• 2006

Due to the technological developments and industrial changes , studying for the future has been attached great importance. According to the forthcoming ubiquitous computing environment or smart environment, it is necessary for a country and an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies . Although many countries have been doing the foresight, it is difficult for the enterprise to try future foresight activity, because the foresight activity needs lots of the costs and time for good results. Also, almost methodologies used in foresight are suitable for country level foresight projects. In this research, a methodology is developed for an enterprise to use easily, and a case based on the proposed methodology is presented. The proposed foresight methodology is developed based on the traditional forecasting methods, FAR, Future Wheel, and Scenario. Especially, the methodology focused on the customers of a company.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.110-126
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• 2002

This study reviews and compares the selection procedures for science and technology topics to predict mid- and long-term trends in science and technology development in Korea, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It then identifies science and technology topics and future technologies for the third science and technology foresight of Korea. In Japan and the United Kingdom, non-technological topics that reflect socioeconomic needs are also select-ed along with technological ones. This study provides the following policy implications to enhance reliability and effectiveness of the third science and technology foresight of Korea. First, selection of science and technology topics should coincide with the national goal, taking into account development trends in science and technology and socioeconomic needs. Second, the current prediction methodologies such as "delphi" do not fully consider future uncertainties in science and technology development. A scenario method is, for example, needed to present coherent pictures of alternative futures. finally, the third technology foresight should select and include topics that reflect domestic conditions and global trend in technological progress. This study suggests 117 topics for the third science and technology foresight.foresight.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.49-74
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• 2017

What are some of the explanations for cross-national diversity of foresight performance among technological followers? Why are some countries more successful than others in learning how to develop national innovation system foresight? This paper argues that the answers are linked to organizational capacities at three different levels: governmental, policy network and social learning. To corroborate this argument, the paper chose Iran and Korea as benchmarking partners, and attempts to find out what makes Iran a slow learner in building innovation system foresight. The conceptual model is an improved model of Saritas's, by integrating Borras' and Andersen's conceptions and classifications. The data are collected from comprehensive interviews in both countries and second-hand data of international indexes. The paper, finally, concludes that it is the weakness of analytical-systemic capacity that impedes and delays the emergence of systemic foresight in Iran, and that this weakness stems from the adverse impacts of the dominant institutions, surrounding the innovation system. The final point is that it is not sufficient for Iran to learn the methods and techniques of foresight from Korea. It should learn how to open its macro-policy towards the global market and design appropriate industrial strategy in a coherent policy-strategy portfolio.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.143-159
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• 2011

Recently, the level of uncertainty in R&D investment for an enterprise has increased due to technological development and industrial changes. Accordingly it is necessary for an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies. But, the fact that the methodology used in predicting future technology is suitable for large project makes enterprise difficult to forecast the future technologies or trends. Thus, this study seeks for available methodology for future technology foresight from enterprise standpoint. The methodology proposed in this research is based on the scenario model, especially focused on the customer needs and future society change.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.53-60
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• 2012

In this paper, we present new methods for identifying keywords for foresight topics that utilize the internet and textmining techniques to draw objective and quantified information that support experts' qualitative opinions and evaluations in foresight. Furthermore, by applying this fabricated procedure, we have derived keywords to analyze priorities in architectural engineering. Not much difference between qualitative methods of experts and quantitative methods such as text mining has been observed from comparison between technologies derived via qualitative method from "The Science Technology Vision" (control group). Therefore, as a quantitative tool useful for drawing keywords for foresight, textmining can supplement quantitative analysis by experts. In addition, depending on the level and type of raw data, text mining can bring better results in deriving foresight keywords. For this reason, research activities accommodating Internet search results and the development of textmining methods for analyzing current trends are in demand.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Design Studies Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.232-233
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• 2005

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.229-236
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• 2017

Technology foresight is the process which investigate long term science, technology, economic and social effects to derive strategic R&D and future promising technologies. This study shows that new systematic framework based on technology classifications of space and action in human society, future six senses was employed as a new research method for effective process of future technology foresight. In addition, to increase the acceptance, forecasting, and uniqueness of new technology, we derived major issues of future society and demand-base products and services through the new process of ICT future mega trend analysis, the findings and selections of future technology, and future scenario based on human six senses.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.369-383
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to ascertain the demands for developing marine science technology to reduce fatalities caused by marine accidents. For this purpose, we analyzed the contents of about 77,000 news articles posted for a month after the tragedy of the Sewol (April 16~May 15) to identify keywords and then we used the Social Network Analysis (SNA) for each keyword. The findings of the analysis show that there are five networks and that each one reveals different aspects about technology development to prepare for marine accidents. Based on these findings, we categorized three kinds of demands for technology development from the perspective of marine science technology: provision of the information about the marine environment, development of equipment and technology to overcome extreme environments, and the establishment of a field support system.