• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.655-660
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• 2009

As the global economic crisis, the Korean foreign exchange market appears unstable with large fluctuations in exchange rate. Inevitably, there is growing attention on price variables such as exchange rate and interest rates and also on corelation between the factors. This is an empirical study on the causality of fluctuation between exchange rate and interest rate in the Korean market under global economic crisis. The fluctuations in won/dollar exchange rate and call rate are described and followed by analysis of lead-lag relationship between the two variables using Cross-correlation function and Granger causality test.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.171-179
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• 2021

In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.3-22
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• 2016

In this study, I examine mutual shock spillover effects among interest rate differences, won-dollar foreign exchange change rates, and stock market returns in Korea during the daily sample period from the beginning of 1995 to the October 16, 2015, using the multivariate GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) BEKK (Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner) model framework. Major findings are as follows. Throughout the 6 model estimation results of variance equations determining return spillovers covered from symmetric and asymmetric models of total sample period and two crisis sub-sample periods composed of Korean FX Crisis Times and Global Financial Crisis Times, shock spillovers are shown to exist mainly from stock market return shocks. Stock market shocks including down-shocks from the asymmetric models are shown to transfer to those other two markets most successfully. Therefore it is most important to maintain stable financial markets that a policy design for stock market stabilization such as mitigating stock market volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.47-66
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• 2021

Despite the dominance of the USD as a vehicle currency in non-US trade, most studies on the exchange rate-trade balance relationship ignore its importance. Some recent J-curve papers have proved that incorporating the role of USD as vehicle currency as a crucial determinant of trade balance can well reflect the reality of global trade and provide more detailed findings. Motivated by this new approach and by the fact that USD is substantially used in the trade between China and the EU and the UK, this paper scrutinizes how the vehicle currency USD and the bilateral exchange rates asymmetrically affect China's trade balance with each EU country and the UK. The results of NARDL estimation indicate that the USD models outperform the bilateral exchange rate (BER) models in terms of detecting significant long-run and short-run coefficients, which confirms the usefulness of the new approach. Also, this paper finds that the USD/CNY exchange rate cannot be neglected in China's trade with the EU and the UK, which can supplement China's policies on international trade and foreign exchange management.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.181-200
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• 2017

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on the stock prices of eight industries from 2006 to 2015. The first and second exchange rate exposure of these eight industries is estimated with respect to four different exchange rates, namely the US dollar, Japanese yen, European currency unit, and British pound. In exchange rate exposure, stock prices in foods-beverages, paper-wood, electricity-gas, and banks industries are negatively related to exchange rate, whereas stock prices in electrical-electronic equp. and transport-equp. industries are positively related to exchange rate as expected. However stock price in machinery industry is negatively related to exchange rate, which is opposite to the expectation. Negative relationship is found between stock price in chemicals industry and exchange rate. In exchange rate volatility exposure, stock price in paper-wood industry is found to be negatively related to exchange rate volatility. Stock price in banks industry is also negatively related to exchange rate volatility. This result is opposite as expected, because banks are supposed to get more revenue by issuing derivatives related to foreign exchange when exchange rate volatility increases.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.25 no.1 s.37
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• pp.64-72
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• 1992

To provide the information necessary for the insurance medicine management plan, price discount rates among the insurance medicines were studied. A total of 2,107 items of insurance medicine of which prices were discounted via governmental inspections of real transactional process of insurance medicine were analysed. The conclusions are as follows; 1. Among the variables relevant to the characteristics of manufacturers, price discount rates of insurance medicines were statistically significant with production rankings of manufacturers, incorporation year, existence of investments by foreign corporation, existence of a research institute, and enrollment in the exchange. And among the variables relevant to the properties of medicines, the number of enrolled items which have the same components, classification, the date of new enrollment, the sales of items, and the number of raw materials in the items were statistically significant. 2. Stepwise multiple regression was done to identify the factors which affect the price discount rates of insurance medicines. The number of enrolled items which have the same components, production rankings of manufactures, classification number (medicines for function of tissue cells), incorporation year(1940-1949), existence of investments by foreign corporations, classification number (anti-germ medicines), number of raw materials In the items, the sales of items, and medicines whose major objective is not treatment were significant variables and the $R^2$-value for these variables was 21.2%. Considering all of the above results, for management of insurance medicines, it seems important that the real transactional prices of insurance medicines should be identified systematically, focusing on the properties which affect the price discount rates of insurance medicines.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.399-407
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• 2021

Stock movement is difficult to predict because it has dynamic characteristics and is influenced by many factors. Even so, there are some approaches to predict stock price movements, namely technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and sentiment analysis. Many researches have tried to predict stock price movement by utilizing these analysis techniques. However, the results obtained are varied and inconsistent depending on the variables and object used. This is because stock price movement is influenced by a variety of factors, and it is likely that those studies did not cover all of them. One of which is that no research considers the use of fundamental analysis in terms of currency exchange rates and the use of foreign stock price index movement related to the technical analysis. This research aims to predict stock price movements in Indonesia based on sentiment analysis, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis using Support Vector Machine. The result obtained has a prediction accuracy rate of 65,33% on an average. The inclusion of currency exchange rate and foreign stock price index movement as a predictor in this research which can increase average prediction accuracy rate by 11.78% compared to the prediction without using these two variables which only results in average prediction accuracy rate of 53.55%.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.66-92
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• 2019

Purpose - Foreign Exchange Rates (FER) have been one of the most significant factors for both Korean exporters and the economy of Korea. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether exporters with a high level of Exchange Rate Elasticity of Sales (ERES) make the use of earnings management for Income Smoothing (IS). Design/methodology - Income smoothing was obtained using the methodology suggested by Leuz, Nanda and Wysocki (2003). Accruals-based Earnings Management (AEM) was estimated using Discretionary Accruals (DA) calculated by the operant Jones Model developed by Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney (1995). Real Earnings Management (REM) was obtained using the methodologies suggested by Roychowdhury (2006) and Cohen and Zarowin (2010). Data were 2,402 firm years of public listed companies on the KRX, which were not in the financial industry and had a settlement of accounts in December for the period from 2013 to 2017. Findings - Results of the evaluation are as follows. First, companies with higher levels of ERES have relatively lower levels of smoothing of reported income. This might be because a fluctuation in sales caused by an exchange rate fluctuation has a direct impact on the volatility of the reported income. Second, companies with high levels of both ERES and IS have a positive correlation with both AEM and REM. This might be because companies with high levels of IS engage in earnings management to smooth reported income. Specifically, it is possible to assume that for smoothing the reported income, not only AEM but also REM is practiced. Third, companies with high levels of ERES but low levels of IS have a negative correlation with both AEM and REM. This could be interpreted as companies exhibiting low levels of IS due to higher levels of ERES tend to control IS. In addition, such results were supported by firms relying highly on exporting, and are consequently sensitive to exchange rate fluctuation. Therefore, it may conclude that companies with high levels of ERES make the use of earnings management as a means of IS. Originality/value - This study can find its significance from the fact that it is the first study, empirically verifying that companies of Korea, where exportation is a large part, use both AEM and REM as a means for smoothing reported income upon facing exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, it is highly expected that the results of this study could be useful for participants of financial markets when making IS-related decisions.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.694-698
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• 2006

A method has been described for the chemical speciation, preconcentration and determination of Cr(III) and Cr(VI) species in filtered tannery waste waters by flame atomic absorption spectrometry using ion-exchange resins. Amberlite IR-120($H^+$) strongly acidic cation exchanger and Amberlite IRA-410($CI ^-$) strongly basic anion exchanger resins were used for the separation and preconcentration of Cr(III) and Cr(VI) species, respectively. Optimum condition for preconcentration and speciation was obtained by testing pH of sample and eluent, flow rates of sample and eluent, amount of resins, volume of sample and eluents, and effect of foreign ions. The recommended method has been successfully applied for the preconcentration and determination of chromium species in the dissolved phase of waste water samples collected from a tannery waste water treatment plant in Kayseri, Turkey. The detection limits achieved were 0.73 $\mu$g/L for Cr(III) and 0.81 $\mu$g/L for Cr(VI). Recovery studies showed 99% for Cr(III) and 98% for Cr(VI), for samples spiked with single species.