• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.111-131
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• 2015

There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.93-111
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• 2013

As Internet and information technology (IT) continues to develop and evolve, the issue of big data has emerged at the foreground of scholarly and industrial attention. Big data is generally defined as data that exceed the range that can be collected, stored, managed and analyzed by existing conventional information systems and it also refers to the new technologies designed to effectively extract values from such data. With the widespread dissemination of IT systems, continual efforts have been made in various fields of industry such as R&D, manufacturing, and finance to collect and analyze immense quantities of data in order to extract meaningful information and to use this information to solve various problems. Since IT has converged with various industries in many aspects, digital data are now being generated at a remarkably accelerating rate while developments in state-of-the-art technology have led to continual enhancements in system performance. The types of big data that are currently receiving the most attention include information available within companies, such as information on consumer characteristics, information on purchase records, logistics information and log information indicating the usage of products and services by consumers, as well as information accumulated outside companies, such as information on the web search traffic of online users, social network information, and patent information. Among these various types of big data, web searches performed by online users constitute one of the most effective and important sources of information for marketing purposes because consumers search for information on the internet in order to make efficient and rational choices. Recently, Google has provided public access to its information on the web search traffic of online users through a service named Google Trends. Research that uses this web search traffic information to analyze the information search behavior of online users is now receiving much attention in academia and in fields of industry. Studies using web search traffic information can be broadly classified into two fields. The first field consists of empirical demonstrations that show how web search information can be used to forecast social phenomena, the purchasing power of consumers, the outcomes of political elections, etc. The other field focuses on using web search traffic information to observe consumer behavior, identifying the attributes of a product that consumers regard as important or tracking changes on consumers' expectations, for example, but relatively less research has been completed in this field. In particular, to the extent of our knowledge, hardly any studies related to brands have yet attempted to use web search traffic information to analyze the factors that influence consumers' purchasing activities. This study aims to demonstrate that consumers' web search traffic information can be used to derive the relations among brands and the relations between an individual brand and product attributes. When consumers input their search words on the web, they may use a single keyword for the search, but they also often input multiple keywords to seek related information (this is referred to as simultaneous searching). A consumer performs a simultaneous search either to simultaneously compare two product brands to obtain information on their similarities and differences, or to acquire more in-depth information about a specific attribute in a specific brand. Web search traffic information shows that the quantity of simultaneous searches using certain keywords increases when the relation is closer in the consumer's mind and it will be possible to derive the relations between each of the keywords by collecting this relational data and subjecting it to network analysis. Accordingly, this study proposes a method of analyzing how brands are positioned by consumers and what relationships exist between product attributes and an individual brand, using simultaneous search traffic information. It also presents case studies demonstrating the actual application of this method, with a focus on tablets, belonging to innovative product groups.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.39-46
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• 1994

Two types of sunshine recorders, Jordan and bimetal, were used for measuring the duration of sunshine and percentage of sunshine in Weather Forecast Offices(WFO) and Weather Observation Stations(WOS) in Korea, respectively.These two gauges showed different values in each element observation. To evaluate the solar energy resources by duration and percentage of sunshine, relevant parameter should be adapted to use the two kinds of data for zoning of agricultural climatic area and comparison of regional solar energy distributions. In this respect, the correlation and distribution pattern were found by analyzing data from the two types of sunshine recorders. The results were as follows. The monthly duration of sunshine by the Jordan type was $50{\sim}60$ hours lower than the bimetal type and its value in May was the highest in a year. The percentage of sunshine by the Jordan type was $5{\sim}10%$ lower than the bimetal type. The seasonal difference of sunshine hour data by two types of sunshine recorder became small in winter but large in summer. Standard deviation of monthly duration of sunshine of WFO and WOS was $11{\sim}32$ and $17{\sim}25$ hours and percentage of sunshine was $3{\sim}11$ and $4{\sim}9$ % respectively. The range of deviation in WOS data was smaller than WFO. The highest distribution of duration and percentage of sunshine was in the Southern Coastal Area, whereas the lowest in the Central North Western Area.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.431-440
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• 2005

Local K-index is an indicator representing local geomagnetic activity in every 3 hour. For estimation of the local K-index, a reasonable determination of solar quiet curve (undisturbed daily variation of geomagnetic field) is quiet essential. To derive the solar quiet curve, the FMI method, which is one of representative algorithms, uses horizontal components (H and D) of 3 days magnetometer data from the previous day to the next day for a specific day. However, this method is not applicable to real time forecast since it always requires the next day data. In this study, we have devised a new method to estimate local K-index in near real-time by modifying the FMI method. The new method selects a recent quiet day whose $K_p$ indices, reported by NOAA/SEC are all lower than 3, and replace the previous day and the next day data by the recent quiet day data. We estimated 2,672 local K indices from Gyeongzu magnetometer in 2003, and then compared the indices with those from the conventional FMI method. We also compared the K indices with those from Kakioka observatory. As a result, we found that (1) K indices from the new method are nearly consistent with those of the conventional FMI method with a very high correlation (R=0.96); (2) onr local K indices also have a relatively high correlation (R=0.81) with those from Kakioka station. Our results show that the new method can be used for near real-time estimation of local K indices from Gyeongzu magnetometer.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.134-153
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• 2015

When making urban planning, it is important to understand climate effect caused by urban structural changes. Seoul city applies UPIS(Urban Plan Information System) which provides information on urban planning scenario. Technology for analyzing climate effect resulted from urban planning needs to developed by linking urban planning scenario provided by UPIS and climate analysis model, CAS(Climate Analysis Seoul). CAS develops for analyzing urban climate conditions to provide realistic information considering local air temperature and wind flows. Quantitative analyses conducted by CAS for the production, transportation, and stagnation of cold air, wind flow and thermal conditions by incorporating GIS analysis on land cover and elevation and meteorological analysis from MetPhoMod(Meteorology and atmospheric Photochemistry Meso-scale model). In order to reflect land cover and elevation of the latest information, CAS used to highly accurate raster data (1m) sourced from LiDAR survey and KOMPSAT-2(KOrea Multi-Purpose SATellite) satellite image(4m). For more realistic representation of land surface characteristic, DSM(Digital Surface Model) and DTM(Digital Terrain Model) data used as an input data for CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) model. Eight inflow directions considered to investigate the change of flow pattern, wind speed according to reconstruction and change of thermal environment by connecting green area formation. Also, MetPhoMod in CAS data used to consider realistic weather condition. The result show that wind corridors change due to reconstruction. As a whole surface temperature around target area decreases due to connecting green area formation. CFD model coupled with CAS is possible to evaluate the wind corridor and heat environment before/after reconstruction and connecting green area formation. In This study, analysis of climate impact before and after created the green area, which is part of 'Connecting green network across the north and south in Seoul' plan, one of the '2020 Seoul master plan'.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.12
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• pp.1159-1172
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• 2020

This study applied deep convolution neural network based on U-Net and SegNet using long period weather radar data to very short-term rainfall prediction. And the results were compared and evaluated with the translation model. For training and validation of deep neural network, Mt. Gwanak and Mt. Gwangdeoksan radar data were collected from 2010 to 2016 and converted to a gray-scale image file in an HDF5 format with a 1km spatial resolution. The deep neural network model was trained to predict precipitation after 10 minutes by using the four consecutive radar image data, and the recursive method of repeating forecasts was applied to carry out lead time 60 minutes with the pretrained deep neural network model. To evaluate the performance of deep neural network prediction model, 24 rain cases in 2017 were forecast for rainfall up to 60 minutes in advance. As a result of evaluating the predicted performance by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at the threshold of 0.1, 1, and 5 mm/hr, the deep neural network model showed better performance in the case of rainfall threshold of 0.1, 1 mm/hr in terms of MAE, and showed better performance than the translation model for lead time 50 minutes in terms of CSI. In particular, although the deep neural network prediction model performed generally better than the translation model for weak rainfall of 5 mm/hr or less, the deep neural network prediction model had limitations in predicting distinct precipitation characteristics of high intensity as a result of the evaluation of threshold of 5 mm/hr. The longer lead time, the spatial smoothness increase with lead time thereby reducing the accuracy of rainfall prediction The translation model turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (> 5 mm/hr) because it preserves distinct precipitation characteristics, but the rainfall position tends to shift incorrectly. This study are expected to be helpful for the improvement of radar rainfall prediction model using deep neural networks in the future. In addition, the massive weather radar data established in this study will be provided through open repositories for future use in subsequent studies.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.101-111
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• 2008

Hangang Parks have been played an important role as the source of various Civilian activities by providing a natural space near Han River ever since it was developed. Due to the local-heavy rain caused by recent climate change, the Hangang Parks tends to be easily overflowed. Evacuation of the park in emergency and its controlled system should be made for the sake of Civilian's safety. In this study, various basic data and several parameters were analyzed to simulate the hydraulic effect of Hangang Parks based on the outflow in $P1/4{\div}1/4^3$ Dam. Rising effects of flood water level were investigated through the one-dimensional and twodimensional numerical hydraulic models. Relationships of water level and travel time of flood between key station and centeral part of each park were also identified. It can be used to forecast the future flood water level of each individual park in Hangang Parks. Obtained results can be used to establish the rational plan of usage, management, citizen's safety, and emergency action plan of the Hangang Parks as the flood is occurred from the outflow of Paldang dam.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.26-41
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• 2012

It is necessary to manage, forecast and prepare agricultural production based on accurate and up-to-date information in order to cope with the climate change and its impacts such as global warming, floods and droughts. This study examined the applicability as well as challenges of the object-based image analysis method for developing a land cover image classification algorithm, which can support the fast thematic mapping of wide agricultural areas on a regional scale. In order to test the applicability of RapidEye's multi-temporal spectral information for differentiating agricultural land cover types, the integration of other GIS data was minimized. Under this circumstance, the land cover classification accuracy at the study area of Kimje ($1300km^2$) was 80.3%. The geometric resolution of RapidEye, 6.5m showed the possibility to derive the spatial features of agricultural land use generally cultivated on a small scale in Korea. The object-based image analysis method can realize the expert knowledge in various ways during the classification process, so that the application of spectral image information can be optimized. An additional advantage is that the already developed classification algorithm can be stored, edited with variables in detail with regard to analytical purpose, and may be applied to other images as well as other regions. However, the segmentation process, which is fundamental for the object-based image classification, often cannot be explained quantitatively. Therefore, it is necessary to draw the best results based on expert's empirical and scientific knowledge.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.469-476
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• 2018

The purpose of this study was to examine the relations and analyze the mediation effect that exists between the feedback types by professors of university physical education and self-efficacy and sports continuance. The sampling method was used to survey physical education university students from three different universities located in the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area. 309 samples were ultimately selected as valid samples. Data processing was carried out by using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0. The fidelity of the whole model was assessed through this process and then the theory was tested. The results were as follows. Firstly, if the perceived feedbacks by the professor were complimentary/encouragement and performance knowledge/positive nonverbal feedbacks it had a positive effect. Negative nonverbal perceived feedback had a negative effect forecast. Secondly, complimentary/encouragement perceived feedbacks by the professor did not have a meaningful impact on sports continuance index. Performance knowledge/positive nonverbal feedback resulted in static effect while negative nonverbal feedback had a negative effect. Lastly, self-efficacy served a meaningful mediation role in the relation between negative nonverbal feedback by the professor and sports continuance.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.93-98
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• 2016

For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.