• Title/Summary/Keyword: Flood frequency analysis

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Flood Frequency Analysis Considering Probability Distribution and Return Period under Non-stationary Condition (비정상성 확률분포 및 재현기간을 고려한 홍수빈도분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob;Kim, Hyeong Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.610-610
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    • 2015
  • 수공구조물의 설계에서는 홍수빈도분석을 통해 산정된 특정 재현기간에서의 확률수문량이 설계기준으로 사용된다. 그러나 최근 기후변화로 인해 이상기후 현상이 심해짐에 따라 수문기상자료의 정상성을 가정하는 기존의 홍수빈도분석은 변화되는 수문현상을 적절히 표현하지 못하는 경우가 많다. 본 연구에서는 확률분포의 모수가 시간에 따라 변화하는 비정상성 빈도분석기법을 적용하였으며 확률분포의 모수들을 최우추정법으로 추정하였다. 또한, 분위수 추정과정에서도 비정상성을 고려하여 정상성 가정에서 산정된 재현기간 및 위험도와 비교분석하였다. 확률분포는 GEV 분포를 사용하여 정상성 및 비정상성 모형 4개를 구축하였다. 특히, 비정상성 모형은 위치모수만 선형 경향성을 가지는 경우, 규모모수만 선형경향성을 가지는 경우, 위치 및 규모모수가 선형경향성을 가지는 경우의 3가지로 구분하여 적용하였다. 구축된 4개의 모형 중 적합모형을 선정하기 위해 우도비 검정과 Akaike 정보기준을 사용하였으며 적합모형선정 절차를 체계적으로 구축하고 적용하여 적합모형을 선정하였다. 본 연구에서 구축된 비정상성 홍수빈도분석 기법은 우리나라의 8개 다목적댐 (충주댐, 소양강댐, 안동댐, 임하댐, 합천댐, 대청댐, 섬진강댐, 주암댐)으로부터 취득된 과거 관측 댐 유입량을 대상으로 하여 적용되었다. 우도비 검정과 Akaike 정보기준을 이용한 적합 모형 선정 결과 합천댐과 섬진강댐이 비정상성 GEV 모형에 적합한 것으로 분석되었고, 나머지 지점의 다목적댐들은 정상성 모형에 적합한 것으로 분석되었다. 합천댐과 섬진강댐의 경우 비정상성 가정에서 산정된 재현기간이 정상성 가정에서 산정된 재현기간보다 매우 작게 산정되었으며 확률수문량과 위험도는 크게 산정되었다. 적합모형으로 정상성 모형이 선정된 6개의 다목적댐 중 소양강댐은 Mann-Kendall 비모수 경향성 검정 결과 유의하지는 않지만 비교적 큰 선형경향성을 가지고 있었다. 비록 비정상성 모형이 적합모형으로 선정되지는 않았지만 소양강댐에 비정상성 모형을 가정하여 재현기간과 확률수문량, 위험도를 분석한 결과 정상성 모형 가정에서 산정한 결과와 상당한 차이가 있었다. 이와 같은 결과는 수문자료의 정상성과 비정상성을 고려한 홍수빈도분석이 향후 수공구조물의 설계에 있어서 신뢰성 있는 확률수문량을 결정하는데 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

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Hydrologic Regimes Analyses on Down Stream Effects of the Young Chun Dam by Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations (수문변화 지표법에 의한 영천댐이 하류하천에 미치는 유황변화 분석)

  • Park, Bong-Jin;Kim, Joon-Tae;Jang, Chang-Lae;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2008
  • Hydrologic regimes play a major role in determining the biotic composition, structure, and function of river ecosystem. In this study, hydrologic regimes were analyzed on down stream effects of the Young-Chun dam construction using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations(IHA). The analysis results were as follows ; (1) Monthly mean flows were decreased during drought and flood season on the pre and post dam, (2) Magnitude and Duration of Annual Exterm Conditions, annual minima 1-day means was $3.48m^3/sec$, $0.89m^3/sec$ and annual maxima 1-day mean was $833.1m^3/sec$, $672.1m^3/sec$ on the pre and post dam (3) Timing of Annual Exterm conditions, Julian date of the annual minima 1-day means was 180th(June) in the pre dam, 257th(September) in the post dam, Julian date of the annual maxima 1-day means was 209th(July) in the pre dam, 217th(August) in the post dam, (4) Frequency and Duration of High and Low Pulse, Low Puls counts and duration were 3 times and 23 days in the pre dam, High Pulse counts and duration were 4 times and 2 days in the pre dam. (5) Rate and Frequency of Water Condition Changes, rise rates was 39.27 %, 19.36 % and fall rates -15.85 %, -8.16 % in the pre and post dam, respectively (6) Coefficient of Variation, annual exteram water conditions were decreased from 0.9054 to 0.6314 and from 1.0440 to 0.9617, Timing of Annual Exterm conditions were incereased for minima flow from 0.269 to 0.282, for maxima form 0.069 to 0.153.

A Study on Knowledge Entity Extraction Method for Individual Stocks Based on Neural Tensor Network (뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 기반 주식 개별종목 지식개체명 추출 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Yunseok;Lee, Hyun Jun;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2019
  • Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.

Agroclimatic Zone and Characters of the Area Subject to Climatic Disaster in Korea (농업 기후 지대 구분과 기상 재해 특성)

  • 최돈향;윤성호
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.34 no.s02
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    • pp.13-33
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    • 1989
  • Agroclimate should be analyzed and evaluated accurately to make better use of available chimatic resources for the establishment of optimum cropping systems. Introducing of appropriate cultivars and their cultivation techniques into classified agroclimatic zone could contribute to the stability and costs of crop production. To classify the agroclimatic zones, such climatic factors as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, humidity and wind were considered as major influencing factors on the crop growth and yield. For the classification of rice agroclimatic zones, precipitation and drought index during transplanting time, the first occurrence of effective growth temperature (above 15$^{\circ}C$) and its duration, the probability of low temperature occurrence, variation in temperature and sunshine hours, and climatic productivity index were used in the analysis. The agroclimatic zones for rice crop were classified into 19 zones as follows; (1) Taebaek Alpine Zone, (2) Taebaek Semi-Alpine Zone, (3) Sobaek Mountainous Zone, (4) Noryeong Sobaek Mountainous Zone, (5) Yeongnam Inland Mountainous Zone, (6) Northern Central Inland Zone, (7) Central Inland Zone, (8) Western Soebaek Inland Zone, (9) Noryeong Eastern and Western Inland Zone, (10) Honam Inland Zone, (ll) Yeongnam Basin Zone, (12) Yeongnam Inland Zone, (13) Western Central Plain Zone, (14) Southern Charyeong Plain Zone, (15) South Western Coastal Zone, (16) Southern Coastal Zone, (17) Northern Eastern Coastal Zone, (18) Central Eastern Coastal Zone, and (19) South Eastern Coastal Zone. The classification of agroclimatic zones for cropping systems was based on the rice agroclimatic zones considering zonal climatic factors for both summer and winter crops and traditional cropping systems. The agroclimatic zones were identified for cropping systems as follows: (I) Alpine Zone, (II) Mountainous Zone, (III) Central Northern Inland Zone, (IV) Central Northern West Coastal Zone, (V) Cental Southern West Coastal Zone, (VI) Gyeongbuk Inland Zone, (VII) Southern Inland Zone, (VIII) Southern Coastal Zone, and (IX) Eastern Coastal Zone. The agroclimatic zonal characteristics of climatic disasters under rice cultivation were identified: as frequent drought zones of (11) Yeongnam Basin Zone, (17) North Eastern Coastal Zone with the frequency of low temperature occurrence below 13$^{\circ}C$ at root setting stage above 9.1%, and (2) Taebaek Semi-Alpine Zone with cold injury during reproductive stages, as the thphoon and intensive precipitation zones of (10) Hanam Inland Zone, (15) Southern West Coastal Zone, (16) Southern Coastal Zone with more than 4 times of damage in a year and with typhoon path and heavy precipitation intensity concerned. Especially the three east coastal zones, (17), (18), and (19), were subjected to wind and flood damages 2 to 3 times a year as well as subjected to drought and cold temperature injury.

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