• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fire Prediction

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A Study on the Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model using Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index -Occurrence of Forest Fire in Kangwon Province- (캐나다 산불 기상지수를 이용한 산불발생확률모형 개발 -강원도 지역 산불발생을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Houng-Sek;Lee, Si-Young;Chae, Hee-Mun;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2009
  • Fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), a main component of forest fire weather index(FWI) in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system(CFFDRS), indicated a probability of ignition through expecting a dryness of fine fuels. According to this code, a rising of temperature and wind velocity, a decreasing of precipitation and decline of humidity in a weather condition showed a rising of a danger rate for the forest fire. In this study, we analyzed a weather condition during 5 years in Kangwon province, calculated a FFMC and examined an application of FFMC. Very low humidity and little precipitation was a characteristic during spring and fall fire season in Kangwon province. 75% of forest fires during 5 years occurred in this season and especially 90% of forest fire during fire season occurred in spring. For developing of the prediction model for a forest fire occurrence probability, we used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and classified mean FFMC during 10 days. Accuracy of a developed model was 63.6%. To improve this model, we need to deal with more meteorological data during overall seasons and to associate a meteorological condition with a forest fire occurrence with more research results.

Study on Fire.Explosion Accidents Prediction Model Development of LPG Vaporizer (LPG 기화기의 화재.폭발사고 예측모델개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2010
  • We have garnered 3,593 data of gas accidents reported for 12 years from 1995, and then analyzed the LPG vaporizer accidents according to their types and causes based on the classified database. According to the results the gas rupture has been the most common accident followed by the release, explosion and then fire accidents, the most frequent accident-occurring sub-cause is LPG check floater faults. In addition, we have applied the Poisson Probability Functions to predict the most-likely probabilities of fire, explosion, release and rupture with the LPG vaporizer in the upcoming 5 years. In compliance with Poisson Probability Functions results, in the item which occurs below 3 "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire", in the item which occurs below 5 "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults-Check Floater" and the item which occurs below 10 appeared with "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults". From this research we have assured the successive database updating will highly improve the anticipating probability accuracy and thus it will play a key role as a significant safety- securing guideline against the gas disasters.

The Prediction of Flash point of Binary systems by Using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 이용한 2성분계 인화점 예측)

  • Park, Sang-Hun;Lee, Myung-Ho;Cho, Young-Se;Na, Byoung-Gyun;Kim, Kyu-Hyun;Kim, Wan-Seop;Lee, Sung-Jin;Ha, Dong-Myeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2013.04a
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    • pp.41-41
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    • 2013
  • 화학산업이 발달함에 따라 화학 산업 현장에서 사용되고 있는 가연성물질들의 여러 가지 화재 및 폭발 위험이 증가되고 있으며, 화재 및 폭발의 예방 안전을 위한 화학공정설계 및 대처에 있어, 물질의 연소특성치 데이터를 필요로 한다. 인화점은 가연성 액체를 다루는 공정에서 안전한 취급과 사고방지를 위해 중요한 자료가 되며, 화재의 위험을 나타내는 지표로서 가연성액체의 액면 가까이서 인화할 때 필요한 증기를 발산하는 액체의 최저온도, 그리고 가연성증기의 포화증기압이 공기와 혼합기체의 폭발한계 하한농도와 같게 되는 온도로 정의한다. 본 연구에서는 2성분계 혼합물에 대해 인화점을 측정하였고, 측정값을 Raoult의 법칙과 다중회귀분석(Multiple Regression)을 도입하여 이론값과 비교 하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제시된 방법론에 의해 아직까지 밝혀지지 않은 순수가연성액체와 가연성혼합물의 인화점을 예측하는 방법을 전개하고자 하며, 실험에서 찾고자하는 자료에 도움을 주고자 한다. 본 연구를 바탕으로 혼합물의 인화점 예측 방법과 실험에서 측정한 자료를 화재 및 폭발을 방지하는 기초 자료로 제공하고자하며, 산업현장에서 취급되고 있고 위험성 평가가 되지 않은 보다 많은 물질에 대한 이론 및 실험 연구에 활용 되도록 하는데 그 목적이 있다.

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An Analytical Study on Prediction Fire Resistance of CFT Column in ISO Fire (표준화재조건 CFT기둥 내화성능예측을 위한 해석적 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Jun;Kim, Heun-Youl
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.257-260
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    • 2008
  • The heat resistance of steel materials tends to weaken due to its high heat transfer properties, which might result in deteriorated strength because of rapidly rising temperature on surface in a fire. Particularly in case of CFT column that bears tensile stress of the structure on its external steel members, a numerical analysis on deterioration of strength and variation of stress shall be first carried out to ensure the structure will have sufficient fire resistance. In the study, based on values obtained from the high temperature material property test of steel materials and concrete, the test to forecast the fire behavior of CFT column was conducted using a finite element analysis method (ABAQUS). An Analysis in a bid to predict the heat transfer and the behavior characteristics by varying the strength of the concrete filled to the range of 40MPA and 50MPA was carried out. As a result of analysis of CFT column on condition of 180-minute exposure under the standard fire condition, 123mm of strain appeared with 40MPA model, while 91mm contraction with 50MPA model.

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Numerical simulation on gas continuous emission from face during roadway excavation

  • Chen, Liang;Wang, Enyuan;Feng, Junjun;Li, Xuelong;Kong, Xiangguo;Zhang, Zhibo
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.297-314
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    • 2016
  • With the mining depth continuously increasing, gas emission behaviors become more and more complex. Gas emission is an important basis for choosing the method of gas drainage, gas controlling. Thus, the accurate prediction of gas emission is of great significance for coal mine. In this work, based on the sources of gas emission from the heading faces and the fluid-solid coupling process, we established a gas continuous dynamic emission model, numerically simulated and applied it to the engineering. The result was roughly consistent with the actual situation and shows the model is correct. We proposed the measures of reducing the excavation distance and borehole gas drainage based on the model. The measures were applied and the result shows the overproof problem of gas emission disappears. The model considered the influence factors of gas emission wholly, and has a wide applicability, promotional value. The research is of great significance for the controlling of gas disaster, gas drainage and pre-warning coal and gas outbursts based on gas emission anomaly at the heading face.

Experimental and numerical investigation on post-earthquake fire behaviour of the circular concrete-filled steel tube columns

  • Wang, Yu-Hang;Tang, Qi;Su, Mei-Ni;Tan, Ji-Ke;Wang, Wei-Yong;Lan, Yong-Sen;Deng, Xiao-Wei;Bai, Yong-Tao;Luo, Wei;Li, Xiao-Hua;Bai, Jiu-Lin
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 2021
  • Post-earthquake fire is a common disaster which causes serious safety issues to infrastructures. This study aims to investigate the residual loading capacities of circular concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) columns under post-earthquake fire experimentally and numerically. The experimental programme contains two loading steps - pre-damage cyclic loading at room temperature and transient state tests with constant compression loads. Three finite element models are developed and validated against the test results. Upon validation, a total of 48 numerical results were generated in the parametric study to investigate the effects of thickness and strengths of steel tube, axial compression ratio and damage degree on the fire resistance of circular CFST columns. Based on the analysis on experimental and numerical results, the loading mechanism of circular CFST columns is discussed. A design method is proposed for the prediction of fire resistance time under different seismic pre-damage and compression loads. The predictions by the new method is compared with the newly generated experimental and numerical results and is found to be accurate and consistent with the mean value close to the unity and a coefficient of variation around 1%.

Large Eddy Simulation for the Prediction of Unsteady Dispersion Behavior of Hydrogen Fluoride (불산의 비정상 확산거동 예측을 위한 대와동모사)

  • Ko, M.W.;Oh, Chang Bo;Han, Y.S.;Choi, B.I.;Do, K.H.;Kim, M.B.;Kim, T.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2015
  • A Large Eddy Simulation(LES) was performed for the prediction of unsteady dispersion behavior of hydrogen fluoride (HF). The HF leakage accident occurred at the Gumi fourth industrial complex was numerically investigated using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) based on the LES. The accident area was modeled three-dimensionally and time-varying boundary conditions for wind were adopted in the simulation for considering the realistic accident conditions. The Message Passing Interface (MPI) parallel computation technique was used to reduce the computational time. As a result, it was found that the present LES simulation could predict the unsteady dispersion features of HF near the accident area effectively. The dispersion behaviors of the leaked HF was much affected by the unsteady wind direction. The LES could predict the time variation of the HF concentration reasonably and give an useful information for the risk analysis while the prediction with the time-averaging concept of HF concentration had a limitation for the amount of HF concentration at specific location point. It was identified that the LES is very useful to predict the dispersion characteristics of hazardous chemicals.

3D Terrain Model Application for Explosion Assessment

  • Kim, Hyung-Seok;Chang, Eun-Mi;Kim, In-Won
    • 한국지역지리학회:학술대회
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    • 2009.08a
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2009
  • An increase in oil and gas plants caused by development of process industry have brought into the increase in use of flammable and toxic materials in the complex process under high temperature and pressure. There is always possibility of fire and explosion of dangerous chemicals, which exist as raw materials, intermediates, and finished goods whether used or stored in the industrial plants. Since there is the need of efforts on disaster damage reduction or mitigation process, we have been conducting a research to relate explosion model on the background of real 3D terrain model. By predicting the extent of damage caused by recent disasters, we will be able to improve efficiency of recovery and, sure, to take preventive measure and emergency counterplan in response to unprepared disaster. For disaster damage prediction, it is general to conduct quantitative risk assessment, using engineering model for environmentaldescription of the target area. There are different engineering models, according to type of disaster, to be used for industry disaster such as UVCE (Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion), BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Evaporation Vapor Explosion), Fireball and so on, among them.we estimate explosion damage through UVCE model which is used in the event of explosion of high frequency and severe damage. When flammable gas in a tank is released to the air, firing it brings about explosion, then we can assess the effect of explosion. As 3D terrain information data is utilized to predict and estimate the extent of damage for each human and material. 3D terrain data with synthetic environment (SEDRIS) gives us more accurate damage prediction for industrial disaster and this research will show appropriate prediction results.

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Prediction Performance of FDS on the Carbon Monoxide Production in the Under-Ventilated Fires (환기부족 화재에서 일산화탄소 발생에 대한 FDS의 예측성능)

  • Ko, Gwon-Hyun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2011
  • In the present study, a numerical simulation was conducted to estimate the prediction performance of FDS on the carbon monoxide production in the under-ventilated compartment fires. Methane and heptane fires located in the a 2/5 scale compartment based on the ISO-9705 standard room was simulated using FDS Ver. 5.5. Through the comparison between the computed results and the earlier published experimental data, the performance of FDS was estimated on the predictions of the combustion gases concentration in the hot upper layer of the compartment and the effects of CO yield rate on the estimation of CO production at local points were analyzed. From the results, it was known that FDS Ver. 5.5, in which the two-step reaction mixture fraction model implemented, was more effective on the prediction of CO concentration compared to the previous FDS version. In addition, controlling CO yield rate made the predicted CO concentration get closer to the experimental data for the fires of the under-ventilated condition.

APPLICATION OF 3D TERRAIN MODEL FOR INDUSTRY DISASTER ASSESSMENT

  • Kim, Hyung-Seok;Cho, Hyoung-Ki;Chang, Eun-Mi;Kim, In-Hyun;Kim, In-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.3-5
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    • 2008
  • An increase in oil and gas plants caused by development of process industry have brought into the increase in use of flammable and toxic materials in the complex process under high temperature and pressure. There is always possibility of fire and explosion of dangerous chemicals, which exist as raw materials, intermediates, and finished goods whether used or stored in the industrial plants. Since there is the need of efforts on disaster damage reduction or mitigation process, we have been conducting a research to relate explosion model on the background of real 3D terrain model. By predicting the extent of damage caused by recent disasters, we will be able to improve efficiency of recovery and, sure, to take preventive measure and emergency counterplan in response to unprepared disaster. For disaster damage prediction, it is general to conduct quantitative risk assessment, using engineering model for environmental description of the target area. There are different engineering models, according to type of disaster, to be used for industry disaster such as UVCE (Unconfined Vapour Cloud Explosion), BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Evaporation Vapour Explosion), Fireball and so on, among them, we estimate explosion damage through UVCE model which is used in the event of explosion of high frequency and severe damage. When flammable gas in a tank is released to the air, firing it brings about explosion, then we can assess the effect of explosion. As 3D terrain information data is utilized to predict and estimate the extent of damage for each human and material. 3D terrain data with synthetic environment (SEDRIS) gives us more accurate damage prediction for industrial disaster and this research will show appropriate prediction results.

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