• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.177-187
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• 2022

Theoretical literature agrees on the interaction between financial instability and economic activity but explains it's dynamic in two points of view: one is that the transmission mechanism occurs in one unique regime and the other reckons a shift of regime leads to the alteration of the transmission mechanism. This study aims to find evidence of the multi-regime transmission for ASEAN developing countries. The author employs the technique of Threshold vector auto regression using the financial stress index standing for financial instability. Monthly data is collected, covering a period long enough with many episodes of high stress in recent decades. There are two conclusions: (1) A financial shock has a negative and stronger impact on economic activity during a high-stress period than it does during a low-stress period; (2) the response of economic activity to a negative financial shock during high-stress periods is stronger than it is during normal times. The findings point to the importance of the financial stress index as an additional early warning indicator for the real economy sector, as well as the positive effect that a reduction in financial stress may have on economic activity, implying the importance of "unconventional" monetary policy in times of high financial stress.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.273-280
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• 2021

본 연구는 등록금 인상 억제로 인한 사립대학들의 재정 위축 상황에서 사립대학의 유보금과, 대학의 건전성이 회계 지표와 어떤 관계인지를 종합적으로 살펴보고 재정정책에 시사점을 제공하는데 그 목적이 있다. 독립변수인 재정여건의 하위변수로 교내유보금과 재정건전성으로 하고, 종속변수인 재정지표의 하위변수로 학생1인당교육비, 인건비비율, 연구학생경비비율, 관리운영비비율로 하여 대학특성변수에 의한 조절효과까지 검증하였다. SPSS 25을 활용하여 상관관계분석과 다중회귀분석을 실시하였다. 첫째, 사립대학의 교내 유보금 항목이 회계지표 항목에 영향을 미쳤다. 둘째, 재정 건전성 항목이 회계지표 항목에 영향을 미쳤다. 셋째, 소재지에 따라 재정여건이 회계지표 변화에 영향을 미쳤다. 넷째, 학생규모에 따라 재정여건 요인이 회계지표 변화의 영향을 미쳤다. 사립대학의 정부 투자와 지원은 정원감축을 통한 재정지원이 아닌, 발전계획 수립을 통한 재정확보 패러다임으로 변화되어야 하며, 수입 다변화 정책 전략으로 생존을 모색해야 할 것이다.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.113-153
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 복합금융그룹화가 해당 그룹소속 개별금융회사의 부실위험에 미치는 영향을 2003년 12월(4분기)부터 2006년 12월까지(4분기)까지 국내 복합금융그룹 및 개별금융회사의 분기별 재무자료를 이용하여 검증하였다. 검증을 위해 개별기반 부실위험측도인 Z-index와 가중규제 자본비율이 복합금융그룹소속 금융회사들과 비금융그룹 금융회사들 간에 유의적인 차이가 있는지를 통합 및 패널 회귀분석을 이용해 분석하였다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, Z-index 와 가중규제자본비율을 비교 분석한 결과, 복합금융그룹 소속 금융회사들의 부실위험이 비금융그룹 금융회사들에 비해 유의적으로 낮은 것으로 나타난다. 둘째, 두 그룹 간에 나타난 부실위험의 차이는 분석기간 초기에는 유의적이지 않지만, 최근으로 올수록 유의성이 높아진다. 셋째, 개별금융회사의 부실위험에 대해 소속된 금융그룹의 대형화, 다각화 및 그룹화 지표가 유의적으로 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난다. 먼저 그룹화 효과의 경우 비록 단변량 비교에서는 복합금융그룹의 부실위험이 낮게 나타나지만, 부실위험에 영향을 미치는 다른 요인들의 효과를 통제하는 경우 개별금융회사의 그룹소속여부는 해당금융회사의 부실위험에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난다. 그러나 이러한 부정적인 영향은, 해당복합금융그룹의 대형화 및 다각화 특성으로 인해 다소 완화되는 것으로 나타난다. 따라서 단일변량분석에서 드러난 복합금융그룹의 낮은 부실위험은 주로 해당그룹의 대형화로 인한 규모의 경제효과와 다각화에 따른 범위의 경제효과로부터 비롯되는 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.257-267
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• 2019

The paper aims to test long-term and short-term causality from four exchange rates, the Korean won/$US, the Korean won/Euro, the Korean won/Japanese yen, and the Korean won/Chinese yuan, to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index in the presence of several macroeconomic variables using monthly data from January 1986 to June 2018. The results of Johansen cointegration tests show that there exists at least one cointegrating equation, which indicates that long-run causality from an exchange rate to the Korean stock market will exist. The results of vector error correction estimates show that: for long-term causality, the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, that is, long-term causality from exchange rates to the Korean stock market is observed. For short-term causality, the coefficient of the Japanese yen exchange rate is significant with a positive sign, that is, short-term causality from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock market is observed. The coefficient of the financial crises i.e. 1997-1999 Asian financial crisis and 2007-2008 global financial crisis on the endogenous variables in the model and the Korean economy is significant. The result indicates that the financial crises have considerably affected the Korean economy, especially a negative effect on money supply.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.103-112
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• 2022

This study aims to obtain empirical evidence regarding the link between tax avoidance (TA) and the readability of financial statements. This is a quantitative research using Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis which is then processed using STATA 14.0. A total of 278 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2017-2019 is the data of this study. In detecting TA in a company, this study uses the ETR and CashETR and for the measurement of financial statement readability, this study uses gunning fog index and length of the document. The findings of this study suggest that tax avoidance and clear financial statements are mutually exclusive in the sense that when tax avoidance is practiced, companies will tend to conceal the information conveyed by financial statements. In other words, it is concluded that the more a company engages in tax avoidance, the lower the readability of the company's financial statements. This study provides in-depth evidence that tax avoidance is indirectly related to the disclosure of information by the company. Users of financial statements will realize that the company seeks to make disclosures that are in their best interests to avoid their tax avoidance strategy being detected.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.445-459
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• 2014

This paper investigates the dependence structure of Korean financial markets (stock, foreign exchange (FX) rates and bond) using copula-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models. We examine GJR-GARCH with skewed elliptical distributions and four copulas (Gaussian, Student's t, Clayton and Gumbel) to model dependence among returns, and then employ DCC model to describe system-wide correlation dynamics. We analyze the daily returns of KOSPI, FX (WON/USD) and KRX bond index (Gross Price Index) from $2^{nd}$ May 2006 to $30^{th}$ June 2014 with 2,063 observations. Empirical result shows that there is significant asymmetry and fat-tail of individual return, and strong tail-dependence among returns, especially between KOSPI and FX returns, during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis period. Focused only on recent 30 months, we find that the correlation between stock and bond markets shows dramatic increase, and system-wide correlation wanders around zero, which possibly indicates market tranquility from a systemic perspective.

• 가족자원경영과 정책
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.63-78
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• 2018

This study examined the insolvency of debtors using multiple-indicator approaches and compared the outcomes across income levels with the 2016 'Household Financial and Welfare Survey'. This study used (1) the total debt to total assets ratio (DTA), (2) the total debt service ratio (DSR), and (3) the Household Default Risk Index (HDRI) recently developed by the Bank of Korea. Households in the lowest income quintile were more likely to be insolvent than any other income group. Demographics, such as age and gender of the household head, and most of the financial variables significantly increased the likelihood of insolvency based on the DTA. The number of household members and job status increased the likelihood of insolvency based on the DSR. Also, age, gender of the household head, and most of the financial variables increased the likelihood of household insolvency based on the HDRI after controlling for other demographics and financial variables.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.109-124
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• 2020

Facing the 4^th Industrial Revolution era, researches on artificial intelligence have become active and attempts have been made to apply machine learning in various fields. In the field of finance, Robo Advisor service, which analyze the market, make investment decisions and allocate assets instead of people, are rapidly expanding. The stock price prediction using the machine learning that has been carried out to date is mainly based on the prediction of the market index such as KOSPI, and utilizes technical data that is fundamental index or price derivative index using financial statement. However, most researches have proceeded without any explicit verification of the prediction rate of the learning data. In this study, we conducted an experiment to determine the degree of market prediction ability of basic indicators, technical indicators, and system risk indicators (AR) used in stock price prediction. First, we set the core parameters for each financial indicator and define the objective function reflecting the return and volatility. Then, an experiment was performed to extract the sample from the distribution of each parameter by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and to find the optimum value to maximize the objective function. Since Robo Advisor is a commodity that trades financial instruments such as stocks and funds, it can not be utilized only by forecasting the market index. The sample for this experiment is data of 17 years of 1,500 stocks that have been listed in Korea for more than 5 years after listing. As a result of the experiment, it was possible to establish a meaningful trading strategy that exceeds the market return. This study can be utilized as a basis for the development of Robo Advisor products in that it includes a large proportion of listed stocks in Korea, rather than an experiment on a single index, and verifies market predictability of various financial indicators.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.1305-1325
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• 2008

As index option markets grow recently, many analysts and investors become interested in forecasting the volatility of KOSPI 200 Index to achieve portfolio's goal from the point of financial risk management and asset evaluation. To serve this purpose, we introduce NN and SVM integrated with other financial series models such as GARCH, EGARCH, and EWMA. Moreover, according to the empirical test, Integrating NN with GARCH or EWMA models improves prediction power in terms of the precision and the direction of the volatility of KOSPI 200 index. However, integrating SVM with financial series models doesn't improve greatly the prediction power. In summary, SVM-EGARCH was the best in terms of predicting the direction of the volatility and NN-GARCH was the best in terms of the prediction precision. We conclude with advantages of the integration process and the need for integrating models to enhance the prediction power.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2019

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of Offcial Development Assistance (ODA) in recipient countries' economy. ODA is designed to mitigate poverty and stimulate economic growth in the developing countries. We classify total ODA into bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA depending on the number of donor countries. If the ODA flows from one donor country to one recipient country, it is classified as bilateral ODA. If the multiple countries simultaneously become donor countries through the international organizations such as United Nations and World Bank, it is classified as multilateral ODA. This paper compares the effect of bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA in determining recipient countries' economic development, and tries to provide policy implications to Korean ODA. Research design, data, and methodology - Our primary explanatory variables are bilateral and multilateral ODA. Private credit in recipient countries is adopted as additional explanatory variables to capture the level of financial development in recipient countries. We measure the ODA effectiveness using economic growth and quality of life of the recipient countries as the dependent variable. We collect 142 recipient countries' data from OECD statistics, during the period from 1970-2014. Panel least squares estimation with country fixed effect is employed as the empirical model. Results - Our results support that ODA variable has a negatively significant impact on recipient countries' economic growth, while it is positively correlated with human development index. Recipient countries' private credit is positively correlated with economic growth and human development index. The interaction variable of ODA and financial development turns out to be significant in general. We find that the positive effect of ODA depends on recipient countries' financial market development and this effect is stronger in multilateral aid than bilateral one. Conclusions - From the analysis, we have confirmed that the recipient countries financial development is the necessity condition to achieve positive effect of ODA. Based on these results, we suggest that Korean government should increase the share of multilateral funding and pay attention to recipient countries' financial market development to maximize the effectiveness of ODA.