• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.329-337
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• 2003

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task of financial time-series prediction. There have been many studies using artificial neural networks in this area. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are regarded as promising methods for the prediction of financial time-series because they me a risk function consisting the empirical ewer and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. In this study, I apply SVM to predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in financial forecasting by comparing it with back-propagation neural networks and case-based reasoning. The experimental results show that SVM provides a promising alternative to stock market prediction.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.698-699
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• 2015

For last three years, our research team have conducted the project named "Development of construction project management technology based on BIM/GIS platform. "We developed construction cost estimation system as well as 3D modeling engine at the first two year and established a web-system which could estimate the benefits of the project and further analyze the economic and financial feasibility of the project. This paper mainly focused on the functions and specifications of web-system. The system was composed of two modules: economic feasibility estimation module and financial feasibility estimation module. While the economic feasibility estimation module determines economic feasibility of the project based on traffic demand forecasting from the public's perspective, the financial feasibility estimation module determine financial viability of the project using toll fee of the road from private entity's perspective. Compared with traditional feasibility study, the proposed system provide users with better flexibility which can make users easily to validate the project upon the change of project environments. The system was also verified with an already accomplished project. The verification showed that proposed system could provide satisfactory accurate results with reduced time and resources.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.149-169
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• 2023

Purpose - The main purpose of this study is to develop the stress test model for Korean banks by exploring the optimal Monte Carlo simulation and BIS forecasting model. Design/methodology/approach - This study selects 15 Korean banks as sample financial firms and collects relevant 76 quarterly data for the period between year 2000 and 2018 from KRX(Korea Excange), Bank of Korea, and FnGuide. The Regression analysis, Unit-root test, and Monte Carlo simulation are hired to analyze the data. Findings - First, most of the sample banks failed to keep 8% BIS ratio for the adverse and severely Adverse Scenarios, implying that Korean banks must make every effort to realize better BIS ratios under adverse market conditions. Second, we suggest the better Monte Carlo simulation model for the Korean banks by finding that the more appropriate volatility should be different depending on variables rather than simple two-sigma which has been used in the previous studies. Third, we find that the stepwise regression model is better fitted than simple regression model in forecasting macro-economic variables for the BIS variables. Fourth, we find that, for the more robust and significant statistical results in designing stress tests, Korean banks are required to construct more valid time-series and cross-sectional data-base. Research implications or Originality - The above results all together show that the optimal volatility in designing optimal Monte Carlo simulation varies depending on the country, and many Korean banks fail to pass sress test under the adverse and severely adverse scenarios, implying that Korean banks need to make improvement in the BIS ratio.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3D
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• pp.391-397
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• 2009

This research introduces the implementation for cash flow forecasting system in construction company through a case study. The implemented system shows how to develop overall corporate-level and project-level cash flow forecasting model based on a real business process in construction company. It takes 1 year to implement system. The study proposes the way of system design, process of system design, and considerations of implementation in step by step. Moreover, it shows main screen, limitation and reliability of the system. The proposed model is validated accurate, flexible and simple as a result of comparing actual data to forecasting data for 2 years. This system is easy to approach the employee who don't have any financial knowledge. This research is expected to assist to implement system of cash flow forecasting in construction company.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.177-192
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• 2016

Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.457-464
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• 2020

This study aims to recognize customers' real sentiment and then discover the data-driven insights for strategic decision-making in the financial sector of Saudi Arabia. The data was collected from the social media (Facebook and Twitter) from start till October 2018 in financial companies (NCB, Al Rajhi, and Bupa) selected in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia according to criteria. Then, it was analyzed using a sentiment analysis, one of data mining techniques. All three companies have similar likes and followers as they serve customers as B2B and B2C companies. In addition, for Al Rajhi no negative sentiment was detected in English posts, while it can be seen that Internet penetration of both banks are higher than BUPA, rarely mentioned in few hours. This study helps to predict the overall popularity as well as the perception or real mood of people by identifying the positive and negative feelings or emotions behind customers' social media posts or messages. This research presents meaningful insights in data-driven approaches using a specific data mining technique as a tool for corporate decision-making and forecasting. Understanding what the key issues are from customers' perspective, it becomes possible to develop a better data-based global strategies to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.111-126
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• 2021

A Kano model was used to classify the quality attributes of the service robot function for actual deployment that can support and replace bank employees. Quality attributes for a total of 6 dimensions and 23 service elements were divided into bank employees and customer groups, and service priorities were derived after comparative analysis. The Decision tree model was used to supplement the excessive simplification of quality attributes by the modest number of Kano models and to classify and predict by segment market. Of the 23 services, 16 were classified into the same attributes in both groups. 6 services classified as combination attributes used a Decision tree to identify differences in perception of quality attributes among groups. In terms of basic financial services and professional financial services, it was confirmed that bank employees feel financial service robots more attractive than ordinary customers. In the design of IT convergence service, we propose a methodology for deriving quality attributes by combining a Kano model for classifying quality attributes of two groups and a Decision tree for forecasting subdivision markets.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.39-44
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• 2018

The application of deep neural networks to finance has received a great deal of attention from researchers because no assumption about a suitable mathematical model has to be made prior to forecasting and they are capable of extracting useful information from large sets of data, which is required to describe nonlinear input-output relations of financial time series. The paper presents a new deep neural network model where single layered autoencoder and 4 layered neural network are serially coupled for stock price forecasting. The autoencoder extracts deep features, which are fed into multi-layer neural networks to predict the next day's stock closing prices. The proposed deep neural network is progressively learned layer by layer ahead of the final learning of the total network. The proposed model to predict daily close prices of KOrea composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is built, and its performance is demonstrated.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.177-184
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• 2014

This research analyzes the effects of factors on the demands for outbound to the countries such as Japan, China, the United States of America, Thailand, Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, the countries preferred by many Koreans. The factors for this research are (1) economic variables such as Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), which could have influences on outbound tourism and exchange rate and (2) unpredictable events such as diseases, financial crisis and terrors. Regression analysis was used to identify relationship based on the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010. The results of the analysis show that both exchange rate and KOSPI have impacts on the demands for outbound travel. In the case of travels to the United States of America and Philippines, Korean tourists usually have particular purposes such as studying, visiting relatives, playing golf or honeymoon, thus they are less influenced by the exchange rate. Moreover, Korean tourists tend not to visit particular locations for some time when shock reaction happens. As the demands for outbound travels are different from country to country accompanied by economic variables and shock variables, differentiated measure to should be considered to come close to the target numbers of tourists by switching as well as creating the demands. For further study we plan to build outbound tourism forecasting models using Artificial Neural Networks.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.8
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• pp.5256-5262
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• 2014

Recently, Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, such as spreading malicious code, cyber-terrorism, have occurred in government agencies, the press and the financial sector. DDoS attacks are the simplest Internet-based infringement attacks techniques that have fatal consequences. DDoS attacks have caused bandwidth consumption at the network layer. These attacks are difficult to detect defend against because the attack packets are not significantly different from normal traffic. Abnormal traffic is threatening the stability of the network. Therefore, the abnormal traffic by generating indications will need to be detected in advance. This study examined the abnormal traffic detection technique using a forecasting model-based trend model.