• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fault Prediction Model

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A study on Reliability Enhancement Method and the Prediction Model Construction of Medium-Voltage Customers Causing Distribution Line Fault Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터 마이닝 기법을 이용한 특별고압 파급고장 발생가능 고객 예측모델 구축 및 신뢰도 향상방안에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Sung-Hwan;Kim, Ja-Hee;Hong, Jung-Sik;Lim, Han-Seung
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.10
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    • pp.1869-1880
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    • 2009
  • Distribution line fault has been reduced gradually by the efforts on improving the quality of electrical materials and distribution system maintenance. However faults caused by medium voltage customers have been increased gradually even though we have done many efforts. The problem is that we don't know which customer will cause the fault. This paper presents the concept to find these customers using data mining techniques, which is based on accumulated fault records of medium voltage customers in the past. It also suggests the prediction model construction of medium voltage customers causing distribution line fault and methods to enhance the reliability of distribution system. We expect that we can effectively reduce faults resulted from medium voltage customers, which is 30% of total faults.

Severity-based Software Quality Prediction using Class Imbalanced Data

  • Hong, Euy-Seok;Park, Mi-Kyeong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2016
  • Most fault prediction models have class imbalance problems because training data usually contains much more non-fault class modules than fault class ones. This imbalanced distribution makes it difficult for the models to learn the minor class module data. Data imbalance is much higher when severity-based fault prediction is used. This is because high severity fault modules is a smaller subset of the fault modules. In this paper, we propose severity-based models to solve these problems using the three sampling methods, Resample, SpreadSubSample and SMOTE. Empirical results show that Resample method has typical over-fit problems, and SpreadSubSample method cannot enhance the prediction performance of the models. Unlike two methods, SMOTE method shows good performance in terms of AUC and FNR values. Especially J48 decision tree model using SMOTE outperforms other prediction models.

A Study on Constructing the Prediction System Using Data Mining Techniques to Find Medium-Voltage Customers Causing Distribution Line Faults (특별고압 수전설비 관리에 데이터 마이닝 기법을 적용한 파급고장 발생가능고객 예측시스템 구현 연구)

  • Bae, Sung-Hwan;Kim, Ja-Hee;Lim, Han-Seung
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.12
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    • pp.2453-2461
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    • 2009
  • Faults caused by medium-voltage customers have been increased and enlarged their portion in total distribution faults even though we have done many efforts. In the previous paper, we suggested the fault prediction model and fault prevention method for these distribution line faults. However we can't directly apply this prediction model in the field. Because we don't have an useful program to predict those customers causing distribution line faults. This paper presents the construction method of data warehouse in ERP system and the program to find customers who cause distribution line faults in medium-voltage customer's electric facility management applying data mining techniques. We expect that this data warehouse and prediction program can effectively reduce faults resulted from medium-voltage customer facility.

Fault Detection of Cutting Force in Turning Process using RBF/ART-1 (RBF/ART1을 이용한 선삭에서 절삭력을 이상신호 검출)

  • 임상만;이명재;유봉환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1994.10a
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 1994
  • The application of neural network for fault dection of cutting force in turning was introduced. This monitoring system consist of a RBF predicton model and a ART-1 pattern classifier. RBF prediction model predict a cutting force signal. Prediction error of predictor is used for a input vector of ART-1 pattern classifier. Prediction error could be successfully performed to fault signal monitoring of ART-1 pattern classifier.

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Fault Pattern Analysis and Restoration Prediction Model Construction of Pole Transformer Using Data Mining Technique (데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 주상변압기 고장유형 분석 및 복구 예측모델 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Woo-Hyun;Kim, Ja-Hee;Jang, Wan-Sung;Hong, Jung-Sik;Han, Deuk-Su
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.9
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    • pp.1507-1515
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    • 2008
  • It is essential for electric power companies to have a quick restoration system of the faulted pole transformers which occupy most of transformers to supply stable electricity. However, it takes too much time to restore it when a transformer is out of order suddenly because we now count on operator in investigating causes of failure and making decision of recovery methods. This paper presents the concept of 'Fault pattern analysis and Restoration prediction model using Data mining techniques’, which is based on accumulated fault record of pole transformers in the past. For this, it also suggests external and internal causes of fault which influence the fault pattern of pole transformers. It is expected that we can reduce not only defects in manufacturing procedure by upgrading quality but also the time of predicting fault patterns and recovering when faults occur by using the result.

A Software Quality Prediction Model Without Training Data Set (훈련데이터 집합을 사용하지 않는 소프트웨어 품질예측 모델)

  • Hong, Euy-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.10D no.4
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    • pp.689-696
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    • 2003
  • Criticality prediction models that determine whether a design entity is fault-prone or non fault-prone are used for identifying trouble spots of software system in analysis or design phases. Many criticality prediction models for identifying fault-prone modules using complexity metrics have been suggested. But most of them need training data set. Unfortunately very few organizations have their own training data. To solve this problem, this paper builds a new prediction model, KSM, based on Kohonen SOM neural networks. KSM is implemented and compared with a well-known prediction model, BackPropagation neural network Model (BPM), considering internal characteristics, utilization cost and accuracy of prediction. As a result, this paper shows that KSM has comparative performance with BPM.

Hybrid metrics model to predict fault-proneness of large software systems (대형 소프트웨어 시스템의 결함경향성 예측을 위한 혼성 메트릭 모델)

  • Hong, Euy-Seok
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2005
  • Criticality prediction models that identify fault-prone spots using system design specifications play an important role in reducing development costs of large systems such as telecommunication systems. Many criticality prediction models using complexity metrics have been suggested. But most of them need training data set for model training. And they are classification models that can only classify design entities into fault-prone group and non fault-prone group. To solve this problem, this paper builds a new prediction model, HMM, using two styled hybrid metrics. HMM has strong point that it does not need training data and it enables comparison between design entities by criticality. HMM is implemented and compared with a well-known prediction model, BackPropagation neural network Model(BPM), considering internal characteristics and accuracy of prediction.

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Prediction Model of Software Fault using Deep Learning Methods (딥러닝 기법을 사용하는 소프트웨어 결함 예측 모델)

  • Hong, Euyseok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.111-117
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    • 2022
  • Many studies have been conducted on software fault prediction models for decades, and the models using machine learning techniques showed the best performance. Deep learning techniques have become the most popular in the field of machine learning, but few studies have used them as classifiers for fault prediction models. Some studies have used deep learning to obtain semantic information from the model input source code or syntactic data. In this paper, we produced several models by changing the model structure and hyperparameters using MLP with three or more hidden layers. As a result of the model evaluation experiment, the MLP-based deep learning models showed similar performance to the existing models in terms of Accuracy, but significantly better in AUC. It also outperformed another deep learning model, the CNN model.

PREDICTION OF FAULT TREND IN A LNG PLANT USING WAVELET TRANSFORM AND ARIMA MODEL

  • Yeonjong Ju;Changyoon Kim;Hyoungkwan Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.388-392
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    • 2009
  • Operation of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plants requires an effective maintenance strategy. To this end, the long-term and short-term trend of faults, such as mechanical and electrical troubles, should be identified so as to take proactive approach for ensuring the smooth and productive operation. However, it is not an easy task to predict the fault trend in LNG plants. Many variables and unexpected conditions make it quite difficult for the facility manager to be well prepared for future faulty conditions. This paper presents a model to predict the fault trend in a LNG plant. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is combined with Wavelet Transform to enhance the prediction capability of the proposed model. Test results show the potential of the proposed model for the preventive maintenance strategy.

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Unsupervised Learning Model for Fault Prediction Using Representative Clustering Algorithms (대표적인 클러스터링 알고리즘을 사용한 비감독형 결함 예측 모델)

  • Hong, Euyseok;Park, Mikyeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2014
  • Most previous studies of software fault prediction model which determines the fault-proneness of input modules have focused on supervised learning model using training data set. However, Unsupervised learning model is needed in case supervised learning model cannot be applied: either past training data set is not present or even though there exists data set, current project type is changed. Building an unsupervised learning model is extremely difficult that is why only a few studies exist. In this paper, we build unsupervised models using representative clustering algorithms, EM and DBSCAN, that have not been used in prior studies and compare these models with the previous model using K-means algorithm. The results of our study show that the EM model performs slightly better than the K-means model in terms of error rate and these two models significantly outperform the DBSCAN model.