• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.24-30
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• 1993

When modeling a complex system we use an event tree to analyze propagation of failure. An event tree cannot represent the statistical interrelationships among parameters, but it can be represented as a statistically identical influence diagram so that parameter updating can be easily performed. After updating parameters we can calculate posterior distribution of the failure rate for each path. But exact distribution requires considerably complex numerical integration. We propose an approximation method to calculate the posterior and derive the predictive distribution of the time to next failure. Finally we introduce the system which implements our methodology.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.24 no.3 s.192
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• pp.84-90
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• 2007

As a result of vehicle maintenance of rocker arm shaft for 4-cylinder SOHC engine, failure stress analysis of rocker arm shaft is needed. Because more than 30% of vehicles investigated have been fractured. Failure stress analysis is classified into an naked eyes, microscope, striation and X-ray fractography etc. Failure stress analysis by using striation is already established technology as means for seeking cause of fracture. But, although it is well known that striation spacing corresponds to the crack growth rate da/dN, it is not possible to determine ${\sigma}_{max}\;and\;{\sigma}_{min}$ under service loading only from striation spacing. This is because the value of striation spacing is influenced not only by ${\Delta}K$ but also by the stress ratio R. In the present paper, we determine the stress ratio using orthogonal array and ANOVA, and propose a prediction method of failure stress which is combined with FEM and striation.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.565-578
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• 2016

A probabilistic based systems approach is addressed in this study for the reliability prediction of solid rocket motors (SRM). To achieve this goal, quantitative Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach is employed to determine the reliability of components, which are integrated into the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to obtain the system reliability. The quantitative FMECA is implemented by burden and capability approach when they are available. Otherwise, the semi-quantitative FMECA is taken using the failure rate handbook. Among the many failure modes in the SRM, four most important problems are chosen to illustrate the burden and capability approach, which are the rupture, fracture of the case, and leak due to the jointed bolt and O-ring seal failure. Four algorithms are employed to determine the failure probability of these problems, and compared with those by the Monte Carlo Simulation as well as the commercial code NESSUS for verification. Overall, the study offers a comprehensive treatment of the reliability practice for the SRM development, and may be useful across the wide range of propulsion systems in the aerospace community.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
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• 1999.11a
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• pp.268-271
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• 1999

Fatigue life Prediction is investigated analytically based on the fatigue modulus concept. Fatigue modulus degradation rate at any fatigue cycle was assumed as a power function of number of fatigue cycles. New stress function describing the relation of initial fatigue modulus and elastic modulus was used to account for material non-linearity at the first cycle. It was assumed that fatigue modulus at failure is proportional to applied stress level. A new fatigue life prediction equation as a function of applied stress is proposed. The prediction was verified experimentally using cross-ply carbon/epoxy laminate (CFRP) tube.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.760-768
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• 2011

The performance of transmission lines and its shielding design during a lightning phenomenon are quite essential in the maintenance of a reliable power supply to consumers. The leader progression model, as an advanced approach, has been recently developed to calculate the shielding failure rate (SFR) of transmission lines using geometrical data and physical behavior of upward and downward lightning leaders. However, such method is quite time consuming. In the present paper, an effective method that utilizes artificial neural networks (ANNs) to create a metamodel for calculating the SFR of a transmission line based on shielding angle and height is introduced. The results of investigations on a real case study reveal that, through proper selection of an ANN structure and good training, the ANN prediction is very close to the result of the detailed simulation, whereas the Processing time is by far lower than that of the detailed model.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.9-15
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• 1983

This paper describes the applicable method of part stress analysis failure rate prediction for electronic components in the MIL-HDBK-217D. The part stress analysis method requires the great amount of detailed informations, such as operating temperature, operating environment, etc. This paper calculates the failure rate of electronic components using the computer program. The program was written by Fortran V and has four basic units as follows (1) Raw data file (2) Failure rate calculation (3) Reliability modelling(Series only) (4) New data file The Functions and structure of the program are illustrated.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.107-112
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• 2015

To predict the system availability of the National Environmental Satellite Center Earth Station, mathematical models of H/W and S/W availability, the availability estimating methods for parallel were systematically presented in this paper. Furthermore, the results of the availability prediction for the Environmental Satellite Earth Station were estimated. The analytical results of Environmental Satellite Earth Station system availability were estimated as 0.998072.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.7
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• pp.428-434
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• 2020

The one-shot weapon system is destroyed after only one mission. So, the system requires high reliability. Guided missiles are one-shot weapon systems that have to be analyzed by storage reliability since they spend most of their life in storage. The analysis results depend on the model and the ratio of correct censored data. This study was conducted to propose a method to more accurately predict the future failure rate of Air force guided missiles. In the proposed method, the failure rate is predicted by both MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) models and the model with a smaller error from the real failure rate is selected. Next, with the selected model, the ratio of correct censored data is selected to minimize the error between the predicted failure rate and the real failure rate. Based on real field data, the comparative result is determined and the result shows that the proposed sampling rate can predict the future failure rate more accurately.

• Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.317-322
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• 2015

The metal oxide varistor (MOV) is a major component of the surge protection devices (SPDs) currently in use. The device is judged to be faulty when fatigue caused by the continuous inflow of lightning accumulates and reaches the damage limit. In many cases, induced lightning resulting from lightning strikes flows in to the device several times per second in succession. Therefore, the frequency or the rate at which the SPD is actually exposed to stress, called a surge, is outside the range of human perception. For this reason, the protective device should be replaced if it actually approaches the end of its life even though it is not faulty at present, currently no basis exists for making the judgment of remaining lifetime. Up to now, the life of an MOV has been predicted solely based on the number of inflow surges, irrespective of the magnitude of the surge current or the amount of energy that has flowed through the device. In this study, nonlinear data that shows the damage to an MOV depending on the count of surge and the amount of input current were collected through a high-voltage test. Then, a failure prediction algorithm was proposed by preparing a look-up table using the results of the test. The proposed method was experimentally verified using an impulse surge generator

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.16 no.7
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• pp.889-895
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• 2002

This paper presents the effect of external corrosion, material properties, operation condition and design thickness in pipeline on failure prediction using a failure probability model. The predicted failure assessment for the simulated corrosion defects discovered in corroded pipeline is compared with that determined by ANSI/ASME B31G code and a modified B31G method. The effects of environmental, operational, and random design variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress and pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically studied using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.