• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2020

Currently, Storage Reliability is analyzed when predicting the reliability of guided missile. However, Mission Reliability and Logistics Reliability should be analyzed according to the definition of reliability in MIL-STD-785B. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the reliability of guided missile based on the definition of reliability. In this paper, we proposed improved the reliability procedure and model for guided missile based on which the definition of reliability considering the mission profile. The proposed model can calculate the final failure rate by applying the ratio of the dormant and storage according to the mission profile. The proposed model has been confirmed to be more accurate than the existing model compared to the actual failure rate value. The results of this study can be useful for applying the reliability prediction to any guided missile.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.109-120
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• 2013

As information-oriented industry has been developed and electronic devices has come to be smaller, lighter, multifunctional, and high speed, the components used to the devices need to be much high density and should have find pattern due to high integration. Also, diverse reliability problems happen as user environment is getting harsher. For this reasons, establishing and securing products and components reliability comes to key factor in company's competitiveness. It makes accelerated test important to check product reliability in fast way. Out of fine pattern failure modes, failure of Electrochemical Migration(ECM) is kind of degradation of insulation resistance by electro-chemical reaction, which it comes to be accelerated by biased voltage in high temperature and high humidity environment. In this thesis, the accelerated life test for failure caused by ECM on fine pattern substrate, $20/20{\mu}m$ pattern width/space applied by Semi Additive Process, was performed, and through this test, the investigation of failure mechanism and the life-time prediction evaluation under actual user environment was implemented. The result of accelerated test has been compared and estimated with life distribution and life stress relatively by using Minitab software and its acceleration rate was also tested. Through estimated weibull distribution, B10 life has been estimated under 95% confidence level of failure data happened in each test conditions. And the life in actual usage environment has been predicted by using generalized Eyring model considering temperature and humidity by developing Arrhenius reaction rate theory, and acceleration factors by test conditions have been calculated.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.310-315
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.230-235
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• 2014

The failure modes of pneumatic directional control valves include leakage, wear of the spool seal, and sticking of the spool. Among them, the main failure mode of the valve is leakage. The leakage is caused by the wear of the spool seal. However, due to the characteristics of the seal material, the leakage rate is fluctuated a lot rather than constantly increased over time. If life analysis is performed using the first time data of leakage failure, predicted life cycles can be different from the real life cycles. This paper predicts life cycles of the pilot pneumatic directional control valve based on the three point moving average which considers the average of the fluctuating leakage rate.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.50-53
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• 2007

Improving the reliability or long-term dependability of a system requires a different approach from the previous emphasis on short-term concerns. The purpose of this paper is to present a reliability evaluation method for an oil cooler intended for high-precision machining centers. The oil cooler system in question is a cooling device that minimizes the deformation caused from the heat generated by driving devices. This system is used for machine tools and semiconductor equipment. We predicted the reliability of the system based on the failure rate database and conducted the reliability test using a test-bed to evaluate the life of the oil cooler. The results provided an indication of the reliability of the system in terms of the failure rate and the MTBF of the oil cooler system and its components, as well as a distribution of the failure mode. These results will help increase the reliability of oil cooler systems. The evaluation method can also be used to determine the reliability of other machinery products.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제4권6호
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• pp.12-19
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary conditions in various failure pressure models published for the estimation of failure pressure. Furthermore, this approach is extended to the failure prediction with the aid of a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect in buried pipelines for long exposure period with unit of years. A failure probability model based on the von-Mises failure criterion is adapted. The log-normal and standard normal probability functions for varying random variables are adapted. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically investigated for the corrosion pipeline by using an adapted failure probability model and varying failure pressure model.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.155-165
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• 2016

Pipe Deterioration Prediction (PDP) and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models were developed in an attempt to predict the deterioration and failure risk in water mains using fuzzy technique and the markov process. These two models were used to determine the priority in repair and replacement, by predicting the deterioration degree, deterioration rate, failure possibility and remaining life in a study sample comprising 32 water mains. From an analysis approach based on conservative risk with a medium policy risk, the remaining life for 30 of the 32 water mains was less than 5 years for 2 mains (7%), 5-10 years for 8 (27%), 10-15 years for 7 (23%), 15-20 years for 5 (17%), 20-25 years for 5 (17%), and 25 years or more for 2 (7%).

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.21-30
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• 1997

가속수명시험에서 강한충격수준에서 부품들의 고장시간이 관측되고 가속화된 고장시간을 토대로 정상충격수준에서 부품들의 성능을 조사한다. 본 논문은 지수수명분포에서 중도절단된 가속수명자료를 이용하여 고장률의 사전분포의 평균을 알 때, 정상조건하에서 하나의 미래 관찰치의 예측문제를 사전분포의 모수에 대하여 적률추정량을 이용하는 경험적 베이즈 접근방법을 적용시켜 경험적 베이즈 예측분포와 예측구간에 대하여 연구하였다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.20-24
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• 1976

The higher develops the industrial techniques, the more reliability of mac hi nary, equipments and systems want the consumers. So, it is a key to succeed in the new-product development that the consumers can put reliance on the product to be made in the product design stage. This study intends to help the product designer and the system manager by presenting them better reliability prediction techniques. For this purpose, the author built some fundamental reliability system models. And then predict the system reliability by estimating the elemental component's failure rate ${\lambda}_i$, and proposed an evaluation model. And also, a system is wrong according to the component's characteristics' degradation, we must estimate the degradation failure rate (average and standard deviation). For this, the "Moment method" is used.

• 콘크리트학회논문집
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.233-238
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 염해환경에 노출되어 있는 철근콘크리트 구조물의 수명예측에 있어서 철근덮개 파괴시간 예측을 위하여, 유한요소해석을 통한 방법을 제시하였다. 또한 본 연구에서는 인공세공용액중의 철근 부식속도로부터 콘크리트 중의 철근 부식속도를 유도하는 방법을 제시하였으며, 철근 부식의 분포에 따른 철근덮개의 파괴시간을 비교하여, 철근덮개 파괴시간을 합리적으로 예측하기 위한 방법을 제시하였다. 국부부식을 고려한 경우 균일한 부식을 가정한 경우보다 최대 약 40%정도 철근덮개 파괴시간이 짧아짐을 알 수 있다. 따라서, 철근덮개의 파괴시간 예측을 위한 유한요소해석에 있어서 국부부식을 고려하는 것이 합리적인 결과를 제시할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.