• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2007

In this paper a methodology of identifying individual pipes according to the internal and external characteristics of pipe is developed, and the methodology is applied to a case study water distribution pipe break database. Using the newly defined individual pipes the hazard rates of the cast iron 6 inch pipes are modeled by implementing the proportional hazards modeling approach for consecutive pipe failures. The covariates to be considered in the modeling procedures are selected by considering the general availability of the data and the practical applicability of the modeling results. The individual cast iron 6 inch pipes are categorized into seven ordered survival time groups according to the total number of breaks recorded in a pipe to construct distinct proportional hazard model (PHM) for each survival time group (STG). The modeling results show that all of the PHMs have the hazard rate forms of the Weibull distribution. In addition, the estimated baseline survivor functions show that the survival probabilities of the STGs generally decrease as the number of break increases. It is found that STG I has an increasing hazard rate whereas the other STGs have decreasing hazard rates. Regarding the first failure the hazard ratio of spun-rigid and spun-flex cast iron pipes to pit cast iron pipes is estimated as 1.8 and 6.3, respectively. For the second or more failures the relative effects of pipe material/joint type on failure were not conclusive. The degree of land development affected pipe failure for STGs I, II, and V, and the average hazard ratio was estimated as 1.8. The effects of length on failure decreased as more breaks occur and the population in a GRID affected the hazard rate of the first pipe failure.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.372-378
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• 2018

Life management technology is required as the failure risk of aged power transformers increases. Asset management technology is developed to evaluate the remaining life, establish the replacement strategies, and decide the optimal investment based on the reliability and economy of power transformers. The remaining life assessment uses data such as installation, operation, maintenance, refurbishment, and failure of power transformers. The optimal investment also uses data such as maintenance, outage, and social costs. To develop the asset management system for power transformers, determining the degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers and evaluating the condition of power transformers using these parameters are important. In this study, since 1983, 110,000 Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) data have been analyzed to determine the degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers. The alarm rates of combustible gases ($H_2$, $C_2H_2$, $C_2H_4$, $CH_4$, and $C_2H_6$), TCG, CO, and $CO_2$ were analyzed. The end of life and failure rate (bathtub curve) of power transformers were also calculated based on the failure data from 1981 to 2014. The DGA gases related to discharge, overheating, and insulation degradation were determined based on alarm and failure rates. $C_2H_2$, $C_2H_6$, and $CO_2$ were discharge, oxidation, and insulation degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers.

• Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.217-223
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• 2006

When only partial information is available about equipment failures (installation date and amount, as well as failure and replacement rates), data on sufficiently large number of yearly populations of the components can be combined, and estimation of model parameters may be possible. The parametric models may then be used for forecasting of the system's short term future failure and for formulation of replacement strategies. We employ the Weibull distribution and show how we estimate its parameters from past failure data. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is possible to assess confidence ranges of the forecasted component performance data.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 1997년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 홍익대학교, 서울; 1 Nov. 1997
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• pp.193-196
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• 1997

In this paper we consider a Bayesian theoretic approach to periodic incomplete preventive maintenance with minimal repair at failure. We assume that the system failure rate is increasing as the frequency of PM increases and that the system is replaced at the K-th PM under this maintenance strategy. The optimal policies which minimize the expected cost rates are discussed. We seek the optimal periodic PM interval x and replacement time K under a Weibull failure intensity. Assuming suitable prior distribution for the Weibull parameters, we derive the posterior distribution incorporating failure data and obtain the updated optimal replacement strategies.

• 산업공학
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.422-430
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• 2012

In this article, we introduced the estimation method by 'Safety Integrity Level'(SIL) for the criterion of safety assurance and performed a case study on a flame scanner. SIL requires probabilistic evaluation of each set of equipment used to reduce risk in a safety related system. FMEDA(Failure Modes, Effects and Diagnostic Analysis) method is widely used to evaluate the safety levels and provides information on the failure rates and failure mode distributions necessary to calculate a diagnostic coverage factor for a part or a component. Basically, two parameters resulting from FMEDA are used for SIL classification of the device : SFF(Safe Failure Fraction) and PFD(Probability of Failure on Demand). In this case study, it is concluded that the flame scanner is designed to fulfill the condition of SIL 3 in the aspect of SFF and PFD.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회B
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• pp.2845-2849
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• 2008

Long Term Asset Management(LTAM) means a plan developed by using LCM(Life Cycle Management) process for optimum life cycle management of significant plant assets at each plant across the fleet. As a part of development of LTAM Strategies on nuclear turbines, a method so as to determine the future failure rates for low pressure turbine facilities at a nuclear plant was studied and developed by using both plant specific and industry-wide performance data. INPO's EPIX data were analyzed and some failure rate evaluation values considering preventive maintenance practices were calculated by using EPRI's PM Basis software. As the result, failure rate functions applicable to a priori and a posteriori replacement of low pressure turbines at a nuclear plant were developed and utilized in an assessment of economics of LCM alternatives on the nuclear turbine facilities in the respects of 40-year and 60-year operation bases.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권11호
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• pp.476-484
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• 2006

The failure prediction and preventive maintenance for the equipment of nuclear power plant area using reliability-centered maintenance have been grown. On the other hand, the maintenance for power distribution system consists of time-based maintenance mainly. In this paper, the new maintenance algorithms for power distribution system are developed considering reliability indices. First of all, Time-varying failure rates are extracted from data accumulated at KEPCO using exponential distribution function and weibull distribution function. Next, based on the extracted failure rate, reliability for real power distribution system is evaluated for applying the effective maintenance algorithm which is the analytic method deciding the maintenance point of time and searching the feeder affecting the specific customer. Also the algorithm deciding the maintenance priority order are presented based on sensitivity analysis and equipment investment plan are analyzed through the presented algorithm at real power distribution system.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• 제57권5호
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• pp.439-442
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• 2004

배 경 : 기관 내관 발관의 실패와 재 삽관 (extubation failure and reintubation)은 유병률 및 사망률의 증가를 초래하므로 기관 내관을 제거할 때 신중한 평가가 필요하다. 발관 실패의 여러 위험 요인이 제시 되었고 발관의 임상적 기준이 제시되었으나 여전히 일부 환자는 발관 실패를 경험하게 된다. 이에 저자들은 계획된 발관을 시도한 환자를 대상으로 발관 실패 및 재 삽관한 환자의 임상적 특징을 보고자 하였다. 방 법 : 인공 호흡기 치료 후 호전되어, 충분한 발관에 대한 평가를 거쳐 계획된 발관을 시도한 31명의 환자를 대상으로 하였다. 이들 환자 중 발관 48시간 이내에 호흡 부전으로 재 삽관 한 환자를 발관 실패로 정의하였다. 발관 성공 군과 실패 군간의 임상적 지표, 호흡기능 및 혈역학적 지표 등을 비교하였다. 결 과 : 31명의 환자 중 6명이 발관 실패 군이었고, 발관 실패율은 19.4% 였다. 성공 군과 실패 군 간에 나이 (성공군 $60.4{\pm}15.65$, 실패 군 $80.3{\pm}7.17$세), 총 삽관 시간(성공 군 $7.12{\pm}2.47$, 실패 군 $13.83{\pm}2.4$ 일), 분당 심박수 (성공 군 $94.32{\pm}5.77$, 실패 군 $110.67{\pm}3.78$ 회)에서 의미 있는 차이를 보였다. 결 론 : 고령의 환자나 삽관 기간이 길었던 환자는 발관에 신중을 기해야 하며, 발관 전 심장 기능의 적극적인 평가도 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제23권8호
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• pp.14-20
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 배전 시스템을 구성하는 기기들에 대한 설치 현황자료와 고장 자료 및 전국 지점을 대상으로 한 설문조사 자료를 이용하여 기후별 고장률을 예측하였다. 같은 종류의 배전 설비라 하더라도 그 설비가 설치되어 있는 기후 상태에 따라서 고장률은 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 그러므로 배전기기의 고장률을 설비관리나 최적 투자 계획의 운용에 사용하기 위해서는 대상 설비가 설치된 기후 특성을 고려해야 하며 이를 위해 기후 특성을 고려한 고장률 예측이 요구된다고 할 수 있다. 기후특성분석을 위하여 한국전력공사의 전국지점을 대상으로 기후 특성(호우, 낙뢰, 강풍, 해일, 특징 없음)으로 구분하여 설문조사를 실시하였고 기후 특성에 따른 영향도를 분석하였고 고장률 추정 알고리즘을 제안하였다.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.105-110
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• 2017

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of frozen mixed double-embryo transfer (MDET; the simultaneous transfer of day 3 and day 5 embryos) in comparison with frozen blastocyst double-embryo transfer (BDET; transfer of two day 5 blastocysts) in patients with repeated implantation failure (RIF). Methods: A total of 104 women with RIF who underwent frozen MDET (n = 48) or BDET (n = 56) with excellent-quality embryos were included in this retrospective analysis. All frozen embryo transfers were performed in natural cycles. The main outcome measures were the implantation rate, clinical pregnancy rate, multiple pregnancy rate, and miscarriage rate. These measures were compared between the patients who underwent MDET or BDET using the chi-square test or the Fisher exact test, as appropriate. Results: The implantation and clinical pregnancy rates were significantly higher in patients who underwent MDET than in those who underwent BDET (60.4% vs. 39.3%, p=0.03 and 52.1% vs. 30.4%, p=0.05, respectively). A significantly lower miscarriage rate was observed in the MDET group (6.9% vs. 10.7%, p=0.05). In addition, the multiple pregnancy rate was slightly, but not significantly, higher in the MDET group (27.1% vs. 25.0%). Conclusion: MDET was found to be significantly superior to double blastocyst transfer. It could be regarded as an appropriate approach to improve in vitro fertilization success rates in RIF patients.