• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Prediction Model

Search Result 516, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Design of Data Fusion and Data Processing Model According to Industrial Types (산업유형별 데이터융합과 데이터처리 모델의 설계)

  • Jeong, Min-Seung;Jin, Seon-A;Cho, Woo-Hyun
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.67-76
    • /
    • 2017
  • In industrial site in various fields it will be generated in combination with large amounts of data have a correlation. It is able to collect a variety of data in types of industry process, but they are unable to integrate each other's association between each process. For the data of the existing industry, the set values of the molding condition table are input by the operator as an arbitrary value When a problem occurs in the work process. In this paper, design the fusion and analysis processing model of data collected for each industrial type, Prediction Case(Automobile Connect), a through for corporate earnings improvement and process manufacturing industries such as master data through standard molding condition table and the production history file comparison collected during the manufacturing process and reduced failure rate with a new molding condition table digitized by arbitrary value for worker, a new pattern analysis and reinterpreted for various malfunction factors and exceptions, increased productivity, process improvement, the cost savings. It can be designed in a variety of data analysis and model validation. In addition, to secure manufacturing process of objectivity, consistency and optimization by standard set values analyzed and verified and may be optimized to support the industry type, fits optimization(standard setting) techniques through various pattern types.

Predicting Mortality in Patients with Tuberculous Destroyed Lung Receiving Mechanical Ventilation

  • Kim, Won-Young;Kim, Mi-Hyun;Jo, Eun-Jung;Eom, Jung Seop;Mok, Jeongha;Kim, Ki Uk;Park, Hye-Kyung;Lee, Min Ki;Lee, Kwangha
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.81 no.3
    • /
    • pp.247-255
    • /
    • 2018
  • Background: Patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to tuberculous destroyed lung (TDL) have a poor prognosis. The aim of the present retrospective study was to develop a mortality prediction model for TDL patients who require mechanical ventilation. Methods: Data from consecutive TDL patients who had received mechanical ventilation at a single university-affiliated tertiary care hospital in Korea were reviewed. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. A TDL on mechanical Ventilation (TDL-Vent) score was calculated by assigning points to variables according to ${\beta}$ coefficient values. Results: Data from 125 patients were reviewed. A total of 36 patients (29%) died during ICU admission. On the basis of multivariate analysis, the following factors were included in the TDL-Vent score: age ${\geq}65$ years, vasopressor use, and arterial partial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio <180. In a second regression model, a modified score was then calculated by adding brain natriuretic peptide. For TDL-Vent scores 0 to 3, the 60-day mortality rates were 11%, 27%, 30%, and 77%, respectively (p<0.001). For modified TDL-Vent scores 0 to ${\geq}3$, the 60-day mortality rates were 0%, 21%, 33%, and 57%, respectively (p=0.001). For both the TDL-Vent score and the modified TDL-Vent score, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were larger than that of other illness severity scores. Conclusion: The TDL-Vent model identifies TDL patients on mechanical ventilation with a high risk of mortality. Prospective validation studies in larger cohorts are now warranted.

Prediction Model of Endurance Time to Isotonic Contraction Exercise for Biceps Brachii using Multiple Regression Analysis with Personal Factors and Anthropometric Data (신체측정치수를 적용하여 다중회귀 분석을 통한 위팔두갈래근 등장성 운동의 근지구력시간 예측모델 연구)

  • Jeong, Ju-Young;Lee, Sang-Sik
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.178-186
    • /
    • 2015
  • Endurance time is very important indicator to estimate muscle fatigue. In the case of measuring endurance time directly, it is dangerous for subject to perform a test until the point of failure to main time force. Therefore, this paper presents the model to estimate endirance time using indirect measurements such as personal factors and anthropometrical data. Previous studies had shown that personal factors such as gender and age were not related to endurance time, but recently studies have shown that it is estimated by using independent variable or predictor such as GTA (Gravitational Torque of the horizontal, stretched arm) and MVC (Maximum Voluntary Contraction). The present study investigated variables to estimate endurance time using personal factors and anthrometrical data during isotonic contractions. Twenty five healthy subject volunteered for this study, and performed three test sessions of isotonic contraction exercises at 10~50% respectively. Afterward the correlation coefficient and p-values were compared among regression models using personal factors and anthropometrical data. The results demonstrated that multi-regression model had significant coefficient of correlation, and was useful estimate endurance time.

A METHOD OF CAPABILITY EVALUATION FOR KOREAN PADDY SOILS -Part 2. The rice yield prediction by soil fertility constituents and other characters (한국(韓國) 답토양(畓土壤)의 생산력(生産力) 평가방법에 관한 연구 -2 보(報)·비옥도(肥沃度) 구성인자(構成因子) 및 기타(其他) 특성(特性)에 의(依)한 쌀수확량(收穫量)의 추정(推定))

  • Hong, Ki-Chang;Maeng, Do-Won;Kazutake, Kyuma;Hisao, Furukawa;Suh, Yoon-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.15-23
    • /
    • 1979
  • In the first paper of the series the five soil fertility factors were evaluated by means of principal component analysis and varimax method. They are interpreted as representing, 1) skeletal available phosporus status, 2) organnic matter status, 3) salt status 4) base status, and 5) free oxide status. In order to resynthesize such fragmented information for the overall soil fertility evaluation, the method of multiple regression analysis was adopted, using the five factor scores and yield data for Korean paddy soils as independent and dependent variables respectively. As test of linear models with different combinations of independent variables the results of t-test of regression coefficient were revealed that the organic matter status (FII) has no relevance to the yield of paddy and that the free oxides and salt supply has by it self only an insignificant contribution to the yield. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) revealed its multiple regression analysis was as low as 0.43. Introduction of quadratic terms to the linear model bettered the result. Thus multiple correlation coefficient (R) was increased as 0.59. Therefore, a coefficient of determination 0.35 was obtained by a quadratic model with interaction terms among the five fertility constituents. Generally we think that the fertility factor has more contribution to raise the rice yield in paddy and that the failure of yield prediction by fertility factor scores was caused by one of follows; 1) the roughness of the yield inspection, and 2) missextraction of fertility constituents. The second step in this study, assuming that the residuals by multiple regression analysis were due to factors other than soil fertility, we can now proceed to predicting the yield from the field characters with the classified fertility groups by means of Hayashi's theory of quantification No. 1. Such variables as fertility groups (FTYG), water availability (WATER), soil drainage (DRNG), climatic zone (CLIZ), surface soil's stickiness (STCKT), surface soil's dry consistence (DCNST), and surface soil's texture (FTEXT) are taken up as the explanatory variables. The quantification appears reasonable; the well to extremely well in soil drainage, very sticky of surface soil, inefficiency in water availability, coarse texture, and very hard to extremely hard dry consistence in soil are detrimental to the rice yield. The R was as high as 0.90 for the set of variables. But the given explanatory variables in this study were not quite effective in explaining rice yield. The method developed seems to be promising only if properly collected data are available. Conditions that should be satisfied in the yield inspection obtained from common cultivator for the purpose of deriving a prediction equation were put forward.

  • PDF

A Study on the Rollover Behavior of SUV and Collision Velocity Prediction using PC-Crash Program (PC-Crash를 이용한 SUV의 전복사고 거동 및 충돌속도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Yong-Soon;Baek, Se-Ryong;Jung, Jong-Kil;Cho, Jeong-Kwon;Yoon, Jun-Kyu
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.227-235
    • /
    • 2018
  • Along with the recent increase in traffic volume of vehicles, accidents involving rollover of vehicles have been rapidly increased, resulting in an increase casualties. And to prevent this, various technologies such as vehicle crash test equipment and analysis program development have been advanced. In this study, the applied vehicle model is FORD EXPLORER model, and PC-Crash program for vehicle collision analysis is used to predict the rollover accident behavior of SUV and the collision velocity. Compared with the actual rollover behavior of SUV through the FMVSS No 208 regulations, the analysis results showed similar results, the characteristics of the collision velocity and roll angle showed a tendency that the error rate slightly increased after 1000 msec. Then, as a result of considering using the database of NHTSA, it is shown that the rollover accident occur most frequently in the range of the collision velocity of 15~77 km/h and the collision angle of $22{\sim}74^{\circ}$. And it is possible to estimate the vehicle speed and collision time when the vehicle roof is broken by reconstructing the vehicle starting position, the roof failure position and the stop position by applying the actual accident case.

Development of Sludge Concentration Estimation Method using Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithm (뉴로-퍼지 알고리즘을 이용한 슬러지 농도 추정 기법 개발)

  • Jang, Sang-Bok;Lee, Ho-Hyun;Lee, Dae-Jong;Kweon, Jin-Hee;Chun, Myung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.119-125
    • /
    • 2015
  • A concentration meter is widely used at purification plants, sewage treatment plants and waste water treatment plants to sort and transfer high concentration sludge and to control the amount of chemical dosage. When the strange substance is contained in the sludge, however, the attenuation of ultrasonic wave could be increased or not be transmitted to the receiver. At that case, the value of concentration meter is higher than the actual density value or vibrated up and down. It has also been difficult to automate the residuals treatment process according to the problems as sludge attachment or damage of a sensor. Multi-beam ultrasonic concentration meter has been developed to solve these problems, but the failure of the ultrasonic beam of a specific concentration measurement value degrade the performance of the entire system. This paper proposes the method to improve the accuracy of sludge concentration rate by choosing reliable sensor values and learning them by proposed algorithm. The prediction algorithm is chosen as neuro-fuzzy model, which is tested by the various experiments.

Risk-based Profit Prediction Model for International Construction Projects (해외건설공사의 리스크 분석에 기초한 수익성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.4D
    • /
    • pp.635-647
    • /
    • 2006
  • Korean construction companies first advanced to the international markets in 1960's and so far have brought more than 4,900 projects which account for 193 billion dollars approximately. With the large increase of national employment and income being followed by the achievement, Korea's construction industry has made an enormous contribution to the improvement of domestic economy for the last 40 years. However, recently the increased risk in international markets as well as the sharpening competition with foreign companies promising in terms of advanced technologies and low labor cost have been driving Korean construction away from the market shares. According to ENR (Engineering News Record, 1994~2003), it is revealed that 15.1% of top 225 global contractors are suffering from loss in international construction markets. This phenomenon is largely due to the highly uncertain characteristics of international projects, which are inherently exposed to various and complicated risky situations. Furthermore, especially for Korean construction companies, it is often the case that the failure in an international construction project cannot be offset by even a sufficient number of successful domestic achievements. Therefore, not only the selective screening among the nominated projects which have strong possibility of collapse but the systematic strategies for controlling potential risk factors are also considered indispensable in international construction portfolio management. The purpose of this study is to first analyze the causal relationships of the profit-influencing variables and the project success, and develop the profitability forecasting model in international construction projects.

Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process (경사제 피복재의 누적피해를 이산시간 확률과정으로 고려한 조건기반 유지관리의 할인비용모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.109-120
    • /
    • 2017
  • A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.

A numerical study on the fatigue evaluation of mark-III LNG primary barrier (수치해석을 이용한 Mark-III LNG 1차 방벽에 대한 피로 평가)

  • Kwon, Sun-Beom;Kim, Myung-Sung;Lee, Jae-Myung
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.41 no.4
    • /
    • pp.337-344
    • /
    • 2017
  • The demand of liquified natural gas is increasing due to environmental issues. This reason has resulted in increasing the capacity of liquified natural gas cargo tank. The Mark-III type primary barrier directly contacts liquified natural gas. Also, the primary barrier is under various loading conditions such as weight of liquified natural gas and sloshing loads. During a ship operation, various loads can cause fatigue failure. Therefore, the fatigue life prediction should be evaluated to prevent leakage of liquified natural gas. In the present study, the fatigue analysis of insulation system including primary barrier is performed using a finite element model. The fatigue life of primary barrier is carried out using a numerical study. The value of principle stress and the location of maximum principle stress range are calculated, and the fatigue life is evaluated. In addition, the effects on the insulation panel status and the arrangement of knot or corrugation are analyzed by comparing the fatigue life of various models. The insulation system which has best structural performance of primary barrier was selected to ensure structural integrity in fatigue assessment. These results can be used as a design guideline and a fundamental study for the fatigue assessment of primary barrier.

A Study on Rotation Behavior of High Strength Steel Endplate Connections under Fire (화재시 고강도강 엔드플레이트 접합부의 회전 거동에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Su-Min;Lee, Chy-Hyoung;Yoon, Sung-Kee
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.35-43
    • /
    • 2016
  • In order to understand rotation behavior of high strength steel endplate connections under fire, this study is compared with existing studies conducted using FEA program. Eurocode 3 presents the three failure modes according to the prediction of bending resistance moment. The parameters of analysis model are temperature, thickness and steel materials of endplate. The rotation stiffness, and bending resistance moment are analyzed according to the parameters. The change of rotation stiffness and bending resistance moment are analyzed about the parameters, regression equations are suggested the change of high strength steel endplate connections. Consequently, the regression equations were proposed as the linear and quadratic equation. The moment ratio of high strength steel under fire was more reduced than the carbon steel, and was small effect about the thickness. When the high strength steel under fire was compared with at ambient temperature, the slope of initial rotation stiffness reduced, the increment ratio of moment was slow, and the change of plastic rotation stiffness wasn't effect by the thickness increase.