• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Effect

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Relationship of Compliance and Oxygen Transport in Experimental Acute Respiratory Failure during Positive End-Expiratory Pressure Ventilation (실험적 급성호흡부전에서 호기말양압에 의한 폐유순도와 산소운반의 변화 및 상관관계 - 호흡부전의 기전에 따른 차이 -)

  • Lee, Sang-Do;Yoon, Se-Jin;Lee, Bok-Hee;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo;Kim, Keun-Youl;Han, Yong-Chol
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.6-15
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    • 1993
  • Background: Positive end, expiratory pressure (PEEP) has become one of the standard therapies for adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Total static compliance has been proposed as a guide to determine the size of PEEP ('best PEEP') which is of unproven clinical benefit and remains controversial. Besides increasing functional residual capacity and thus improving oxygenation, PEEP stimulate prostacyclin secretion and was proposed for the treatment of acute pulmonary embolism. But little is known about the effect of PEEP on hemodynamic and gas exchange disturbances in acute pulmonary embolism. Methods: To study the validity of total static compliance as a predictor of 'best PEEP' in ARDS and acute pulmonary embolism, experimental ARDS was induced in mongrel dog with oleic acid and acute pulmonary embolism with autologous blood clot. Then hemodynamic and gas exchange parameters were measured with serial increment of PEEP. Results:In ARDS group, total static compliance and oxygen transport were maximal at 5 cm$H_2O$, and decreased thereafter (p<0.05). With increment of PEEP, arterial oxygen tension ($PaO_2$) and arterial carbon dioxide tension ($PaCO_2$) increased and cardiac output and physiological shunt decreased. In pulmonary embolism group, total static compliance, oxygen transport, physiological shunt and cardiac output decreased and $PaO_2$ and $PaCO_2$ increased with increment of PEEP (p<0.05). Comparing the change induced by increment of PEEP by 1 cm$H_2O$ in ARDS group with that in pulmonary embolism group, there was no significant difference between two groups except cardiac output which decreased more in pulmonary embolism group (p<0.05). In ARDS group, oxygen transport and total static compliance increased after PEEP application, and total static compliance was maximal at the PEEP level where oxygen transport was maximal. However in pulmonary embolism group, oxygen transport and total static compliance decreased after application of PEEP. There was significant correlation between change of total static compliance and change of oxygen transport in both groups. Conclusion: In both ARDS and acute pulmonary embolism, it can be concluded that total static compliance is useful as a predictor of 'best PEEP'.

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Effect of Pressure Rise Time on Tidal Volume and Gas Exchange During Pressure Control Ventilation (압력조절환기법에서 압력상승시간(Pressure Rise Time)이 흡기 일환기량 및 가스교환에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeoung, Byung-O;Koh, Youn-Suck;Shim, Tae-Sun;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong;Lim, Chae-Man
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.766-772
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    • 2000
  • Background : Pressure rise time (PRT) is the time in which the ventilator aclieves the set airway pressure in pressure-targeted modes, such as pressure control ventilation (PCV). With varying PRT, in principle, the peak inspiratory flow rate of the ventilator also varies. And if PRT is set to a shorter duration, the effective duration of target pressure level would be prolonged, which in turn would increase inspiratory tidal volume(Vti) and mean airway pressure (Pmean). We also postulated that the increase in Vti with shortening of PRT may relate inversely to the patients' basal airway resistance. Methods : In 13 paralyzed patients on PCV (pressure control 18$\pm$9.5 cm $H_2O$ $FIO_2\;0.6\pm0.3$, PEEP 5$\pm$3 cm $H_2O$, f 20/min, I : E1 : 2) with Servo 300 (Siemens-Elema, Solna, Sweden) from various causes of respiratory failure, PRT of 10 %, 5 % and 0 % were randomly applied. At 30 min of each PRT trial, peak inspiratory flow (PIF, L/sec), Vti (ml), Pmean (cm $H_2O$) and ABGA were determined. Results : At PRT 10%, 5%, and 0%, PIF were 0.69$\pm$0.13, 0.77$\pm$0.19, 0.83$\pm$0.22, respectively (p<0.001). Vti were 425$\pm$94, 439$\pm$101, 456$\pm$106, respectively (p<0.001), and Pmean were 11.2$\pm$3.7, 12.0$\pm$3.7, 12.5$\pm$3.8, respectively (p<0.001). pH were 7.40$\pm$0.08, 7.40$\pm$0.92, 7.41$\pm$0.96, respectively (p=0.00) ; $PaCO_2$ (mm Hg) were 47.4$\pm$15.8, 47.2 $\pm$15.7, 44.6$\pm$16.2, respectively (p=0.004) ; $PAO_2-PaO_2$ (mm Hg) were 220$\pm$98, 224$\pm$95, 227$\pm$94, respectively (p=0.004) ; and $V_n/V_T$ as determined by ($PaCO_2-P_E-CO_2$)/$PaCO_2$ were 0.67$\pm$0.07, 0.67$\pm$0.08, 0.66$\pm$0.08, respectively (p=0.007). The correlation between airway resistance and change of Vti from PRT 10% to 0% were r= -0.243 (p=0.498). Conclusion : Shortening of pressure rise timee during PCV was associated with increased tidal volume, increased mean airway pressure and lower $PaCO_2$.

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A study on The U.S.-Korean Trade Friction Prevention and Settlement in the Fields of Information and Telecommunication Industries (한미간(韓美間) 정보통신분야(情報通信分野) 통상마찰예방(通商摩擦豫防)과 해소방안(解消方案)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Jung, Jay-Young
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.13
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    • pp.869-895
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    • 2000
  • The US supports the Information and Communication (IC) industry as a strategic one to wield a complete power over the World Market. However, several other countries are also eager to have the support for the IC industry because the industry produces a high added value and has a significant effect on other industries. Korea is not an exception. Korea recently succeeded in the commercialization of CDMA for the first time in the world, after the successful development of TDX. Hence, it is highly likely to get tracked by the US. Although the IC industry is a specific sector of IT, there is a concern that there might be a trade friction between the US and Korea due to a possible competition. It will be very important to prepare a solution in advance so that Korea could prevent the friction and at the same time increase its share domestically and globally. It will be our important task to solve the problem with the minimum cost if the conflict arises unfortunately in the IT area. The parties that have a strong influence on the US trade policy are the think tank group and the IT-related interest group. Therefore, it would be important to have a close relationship with them. We found some implications by analyzing the case of Japan, which has experienced trade frictions with the US over the long period of time in the high tech industry. In order to get rid of those conflicts with the US, the Japanese did the following things : (1) The Japanese government developed supporting theories and also resorted to international support so that the world could support the Japanese theories. (2) Through continual dialogue with the US business people, the Japanese business people sought after solutions to share profits among the Japanese and the US both in the domestic and in the worldwide markets. They focused on lobbying activities to influence the US public opinion to support the Japanese. The specific implementation plan was first to open culture lobby toward opinion leaders who were leaders about the US opinion. The institution, Japan Society, were formed to deliver a high quality lobbying activities. The second plan is economic lobby. They have established Japanese Economic Institute at Washington. They provide information about Japan regularly or irregularly to the US government, research institution, universities, etc., that are interested in Japan. The main objective behind these activities though is to advertise the validity of Japanese policy. Japanese top executives, practical interest groups on international trade, are trying to justify their position by direct contact with the US policy makers. The third one is political lobby. Japan is very careful about this political lobby. It is doing its best not to give impression that Japan is trying to shape the US policy making. It is collecting a vast amount of information to make a correct judgment on situation. It is not tilted toward one political party or the other, and is rather developing a long-term network of people who understand and support the Japanese policy. The following implications were drawn from the experience of Japan. First, the Korean government should develop a long-term plan and execute it to improve the Korean image perceived by American people. Second, the Korean government should begin public relation activities toward the US elite group. It is inevitable to make an effort to advertise Korea to this elite group because this group leads public opinion in the USA. Third, the Korean government needs the development of a relevant policy to elevate the positive atmosphere for advertising toward the US. For example, we need information about to whom and how to about lobbying activities, personnel network who immediately respond to wrong articles about Korea in the US press, and lastly the most recent data bank of Korean support group inside the USA. Fourth, the Korean government should create an atmosphere to facilitate the advertising toward the US. Examples include provision of incentives in tax on the expenses for the advertising toward the US and provision of rewards to those who significantly contribute to the advertising activities. Fifth, the Korean government should perform the role of a bridge between Korean and the US business people. Sixth, the government should promptly analyze the policy of IT industry, a strategic area, and timely distribute information to industries in Korea. Since the Korean government is the only institution that has formal contact with the US government, it is highly likely to provide information of a high quality. The followings are some implications for business institutions. First, Korean business organization should carefully analyze and observe the business policy and managerial conditions of US companies. It is very important to do so because all the trade frictions arise at the business level. Second, it is also very important that the top management of Korean firms contact the opinion leaders of the US. Third, it is critically needed that Korean business people sent to the USA do their part for PR activities. Fourth, it is very important to advertise to American employees in Korean companies. If we cannot convince our American employees, it would be a lot harder to convince regular American. Therefore, it is very important to make the American employees the support group for Korean ways. Fifth, it should try to get much information as early as possible about the US firms policy in the IT area. It should give an enormous effort on early collection of information because by doing so it has more time to respond. Sixth, it should research on the PR cases of foreign enterprise or non-American companies inside the USA. The research needs to identify the success factors and the failure factors. Finally, the business firm will get more valuable information if it analyzes and responds to, according to each medium.

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Effect of Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure after Early Surfactant Therapy in Moderate Respiratory Distress Syndrome (중등도 신생아 호흡 곤란 증후군에서 폐 표면 활성제 조기 투여 후 Nasal CPAP의 치료 효과)

  • Kim, Eun Ji;Kim, Hae Sook;Hur, Man Hoe;Lee, Sang Geel
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.45 no.10
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    • pp.1204-1212
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Early surfactant therapy with either gentle ventilation, high-frequency ventilation or aggressive weaning of mechanical ventilation are principles for the treatment of respiratory distress syndrome(RDS). We studied to determine the accessibility of noninvasive nasal continuous positive airway pressure(CPAP) rather than mechanical ventilation by invasive intubation after early surfactant therapy. Methods : The study group consisted of 14 infants who were born and diagnosed with moderate respiratory distress syndrome and received early surfactant therapy with nasal CPAP of PEEP 5-6 cm $H_2O$ within two hours after birth in the Fatima neonatal intensive care unit for two years from January 1999 to August 2001. The control group consisted of 15 infants who were diagnosed with the disease and could be weaned from mechanical ventilator within five days after birth during the same period. Results : The characteristics, the severity of clinical symptoms and laboratory findings in the two groups at birth showed no significant difference. Neither did the interim analysis of laboratory data in two groups. Of 14 infants in the study group who received nasal CPAP after early surfactant therapy, only two infants showed weaning failure with this therapy. In the response cases, duration of CPAP was five days and mean airway pressure was $5.4{\pm}0.5cm$ $H_2O$. Two had the complication of CPAP with abdominal distension. Final complications and outcomes in the two groups showed no signifcant difference(P>0.05). Conclusion : The clinical courses in the two groups showed no significant difference. Therefore, we suggest that early surfactant therapy with noninvasive nasal CPAP is a simple and safe method rather than aggressive weaning after invasive mechanical ventilation in moderate respiratory distress syndrome.

An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

The Effect of Lime Application after Cultivating Winter Forage Crops on the Change of Major Characters and Yield of Peanut (동계사료작물 재배후 석회물질 시용이 땅콩의 주요 형질 및 수량에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Dae-Hyang;Chim, Jae-Seong
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.7
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 1995
  • These experiments were conducted for decrease of injury by continuous cropping in the peanut fields of Chonbuk Wangkungarea. The continuous cropping field for four years was used in this experiment. Italian ryegrass and rye were cultivated andlime materials were distributed for improvement of soil fertility. The results were as follows; 1. Forage crops were cultivatedand lime materials were distributed on the continuous cropping field of peanut. The organic matter content of the expermentalplot cultivating Italian ryegrass was only 1.25%. The organic matter content of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributedmagnesium lime was 1.37% and that of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed gypsum was 1.30%. It was highcontent comparing to that of soil distributed lime materials only. The organic matter content of soil cultivated rye after distributed gypsum was 1.77%. 2. The phosphate content of soil cutivated Italian ryegrass was 332ppm. The phosphate content ofsoil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed magnesium lime was 34Oppm and that of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass afterdistributed gypsum was 31 2ppm. The phosphate content of soil cultivated rye only was 386ppm. The phosphate content ofsoil cultivated rye after distributed gypsum was 41 8ppm. This phosphate content was lower than that of soil distributed limematerials only. 3. The phytotoxin content of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed magnesium lime was decreased to17.7% and that of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed gypsum was decreased to 25.3%. The phytotoxin content ofsoil cultivated rye after distributed magnesium lime was decreased to 12.0% and that of soil cultivated rye after distributedgypsum was decreased to 12.8% comparing to the phytotoxin content of soil distributed lime materials only. Italian ryegrasswas effective to decrease phytotoxin among the forage crops and gypsum was effective among the lime materials. 4. Abacterial wilt and a late spot of peanut which were known as, main reason of continuous cropping failure were surveyed.lnccidence of a bacterial wilt was 3.4% in the plot cultivated Italian ryegrass only and that was 2.9% in the plot cultivated ryeonly. lnccidence of a bacterial wilt was 2.5% in the plot cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed magnesium lime and thatwas 2.3% in the plot cultivated rye after distributed gypsum. Inccidence plot cultivated forage crops was lower than that of plotdistributed lime materials. 5. Inccidence of a late spot was high in the plot cultivated forage crops ony, but it was low in the plotcultivated forage crops after distributed lime materials comparing to that of the control plot. 6. The growth and yield of peanutwere bad in the plot cultivated forage crops only comparing to the control plot distributed lime materials only. These resultswere same in the plot cultivated rye after distributed lime materials, but the growth and yield were grown up in the plotcultured Italian ryegrass after distributed lime materials.

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The micro-tensile bond strength of two-step self-etch adhesive to ground enamel with and without prior acid-etching (산부식 전처리에 따른 2단계 자가부식 접착제의 연마 법랑질에 대한 미세인장결합강도)

  • Kim, You-Lee;Kim, Jee-Hwan;Shim, June-Sung;Kim, Kwang-Mahn;Lee, Keun-Woo
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.148-156
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    • 2008
  • Statement of problems: Self-etch adhesives exhibit some clinical benefits such as ease of manipulation and reduced technique-sensitivity. Nevertheless, some concern remains regarding the bonding effectiveness of self-etch adhesives to enamel, in particular when so-called 'mild' self-etch adhesives are employed. This study compared the microtensile bond strengths to ground enamel of the two-step self-etch adhesive Clearfil SE Bond (Kuraray) to the three-step etch-and- rinse adhesive Scotchbond Multi-Purpose (3M ESPE) and the one-step self-etch adhesive iBond (Heraeus Kulzer). Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of a preceding phosphoric acid conditioning step on the bonding effectiveness of a two-step self-etch adhesive to ground enamel. Material and methods: The two-step self-etch adhesive Clearfil SE Bond non-etch group, Clearfil SE Bond etch group with prior 35% phosphoric acid etching, and the one-step self-etch adhesive iBond group were used as experimental groups. The three-step etch-and-rinse adhesive Scotchbond Multi-Purpose was used as a control group. The facial surfaces of bovine incisors were divided in four equal parts cruciformly, and randomly distributed into each group. The facial surface of each incisor was ground with 800-grit silicon carbide paper. Each adhesive group was applied according to the manufacturer's instructions to ground enamel, after which the surface was built up using Light-Core (Bisco). After storage in distilled water at $37^{\circ}C$ for 1 week, the restored teeth were sectioned into enamel beams approximately 0.8*0.8mm in cross section using a low speed precision diamond saw (TOPMET Metsaw-LS). After storage in distilled water at $37^{\circ}C$ for 1 month, 3 months, microtensile bond strength evaluations were performed using microspecimens. The microtensile bond strength (MPa) was derived by dividing the imposed force (N) at time of fracture by the bond area ($mm^2$). The mode of failure at the interface was determined with a microscope (Microscope-B nocular, Nikon). The data of microtensile bond strength were statistically analyzed using a one-way ANOVA, followed by Least Significant Difference Post Hoc Test at a significance level of 5%. Results: The mean microtensile bond strength after 1 month of storage showed no statistically significant difference between all adhesive groups (P>0.05). After 3 months of storage, adhesion to ground enamel of iBond was not significantly different from Clearfil SE Bond etch (P>>0.05), while Clearfil SE Bond non-etch and Scotchbond Multi-Purpose demonstrated significantly lower bond strengths (P<0.05), with no significant differences between the two adhesives. Conclusion: In this study the microtensile bond strength to ground enamel of two-step self-etch adhesive Clearfil SE Bond was not significantly different from three-step etch-and-rinse adhesive Scotchbond Multi-Purpose, and prior etching with 35% phosphoric acid significantly increased the bonding effectiveness of Clearfil SE Bond to enamel at 3 months.

A Study on the Growth Diagnosis and Management Prescription for Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214) (진안 평지리 이팝나무군(천연기념물 제214호)의 생육진단 및 관리방안)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Han, Sang-Yub;Choi, Yung-Hyun;Son, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2018
  • This study was attempted to find out the value of cultural assets through the clear diagnosis and prescription of the dead and weakness factors of the Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214), The results are as follows. First, Since the designation of 13 natural monuments in 1968, since 1973, many years have passed since then. In particular, despite the removal of some of the buried soil during the maintenance process, such as retreating from the fence of the primary school after 2010, Second, The first and third surviving tree of the designated trees also have many branches that are dead, the leaves are dull, and the amount of leaves is small. vitality of tree is 'extremely bad', and the first branch has already been faded by a large number of branches, and the amount of leaves is considerably low this year, so that only two flowers are bloomed. The second is also in a 'bad'state, with small leaves, low leaf density, and deformed water. The largest number 1 in the world is added to the concern that the s coverd oil is assumed to be paddy soils. Third, It is found that the composition ratio of silt is high because it is known as '[silty loam(SiL)]'. In addition, the pH of the northern soil at pH 1 was 6.6, which was significantly different from that of the other soil. In addition, the organic matter content was higher than the appropriate range, which is considered to reflect the result of continuous application for protection management. Fourth, It is considered that the root cause of failure and growth of Jinan pyeongji-ri Population of Retusa Fringe Trees group is chronic syndrome of serious menstrual deterioration due to covered soil. This can also be attributed to the newly planted succession and to some of the deaths. Fifthly, It is urgent to gradually remove the subsoil part, which is estimated to be the cause of the initial damage. Above all, it is almost impossible to remove the coverd soil after grasping the details of the soil, such as clayey soil, which is buried in the rootstock. After removal of the coverd soil, a pestle is installed to improve the respiration of the roots and the ground with Masato. And the dead 4th dead wood and the 5th and 6th dead wood are the best, and the lower layer vegetation is mown. The viable neck should be removed from the upper surface, and the bark defect should undergo surgery and induce the development of blindness by vestibule below the growth point. Sixth, The underground roots should be identified to prepare a method to improve the decompression of the root and the respiration of the soil. It is induced by the shortening of rotten roots by tracing the first half of the rootstock to induce the generation of new roots. Seventh, We try mulching to suppress weed occurrence, trampling pressure, and soil moisturizing effect. In addition, consideration should be given to the fertilization of the foliar fertilizer, the injection of the nutrients, and the soil management of the inorganic fertilizer for the continuous nutrition supply. Future monitoring and forecasting plans should be developed to check for changes continuously.

Effect of Cellulose Derivatives to Reduce the Oil Uptake of Deep Fat Fried Batter of Pork Cutlet (셀룰로오스 유도체가 돈가스 튀김옷의 흡유량 감소에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Byung-Sook;Lee, Young-Eun
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.488-495
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    • 2009
  • Pork cutlet is a favorite deep fat fried food item among Korean children, and an excellent protein-containing food, and as well as a simple and economical cuisine. However, the frying process adds a significant amount of calories. We added MC (Methylcellulose) and HPMC (Hydroxypropyl Methylcellulose) to the batter in an effort to reduce oil uptake in prepared pork cutlets. After additions of MC and HPMC at concentrations of 0.5, 1, and 1.5% respectively, we assessed the viscosity of batter, color after frying, the increases in moisture retention and oil uptake, and sensory characteristics, comparing each quality. The viscosity of batter with 0.5% HPMC added (w/w) was similar to that of the controls, but the viscosity of all the batter with added MC was so much higher that it was difficult to use the batter for coating at the same temperature, leading to a failure even to prepare a sample. After frying, the batter with added HPMC provided significantly less oil uptake and more moisture retention than the batter to which MC was added. Additionally, with regard to color and sensory characteristics, the pork cutlet with 0.5% added HPMC was superior to the other samples. According to these results, we concluded that when cellulose derivatives are added in order to reduce oil uptake and to raise the moisture retention of the batter of pork cutlet, HPMC is more useful in this regard than MC. Additionally, the batter with 0.5% HPMC added appears to be the best of the tested choices, for three reasons: first, the viscosity of the batter is similar to that of the controls; second, the taste is not greasy after frying as the result of the reduced oil uptake and higher moisture retention; and third, the sensory characteristics of this sample, such as, color, crispiness, and hardness were the best among samples.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.