• Title/Summary/Keyword: Factors of Effect

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Short-Term Efficacy of Steroid and Immunosuppressive Drugs in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Pre-treatment Factors Associated with Favorable Response (특발성폐섬유화증에서 스테로이드와 면역억제제의 단기 치료효과 및 치료반응 예측인자)

  • Kang, Kyeong-Woo;Park, Sang-Joon;Koh, Young-Min;Lee, Sang-Pyo;Suh, Gee-Young;Chung, Man-Pyo;Han, Jung-Ho;Kim, Ho-Joong;Kwon, O-Jung;Lee, Kyung-Soo;Rhee, Chong-H.
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.685-696
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    • 1999
  • Background : Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a diffuse inflammatory and fibrosing process that occurs within the interstitium and alveolus of the lung with invariably poor prognosis. The major problem in management of IPF results from the variable rate of disease progression and the difficulties in predicting the response to therapy. The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate the short-term efficacy of steroid and immunosuppressive therapy for IPF and to identify the pre-treatment determinants of favorable response. Method : Twenty patients of IPF were included. Diagnosis of IPF was proven by thoracoscopic lung biopsy and they were presumed to have active progressive disease. The baseline evaluation in these patients included clinical history, pulmonary function test, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), and chest high resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Fourteen patients received oral prednisolone treatment with initial dose of 1mg/kg/day for 8 to 12 weeks and then tapering to low-dose prednisolone (0.25mg/kg/day). Six patients who previously had experienced significant side effects to steroid received 2mg/kg/day of oral cyclophosphamide with or without low-dose prednisolone. Follow-up evaluation was performed after 6 months of therapy. If patients met more than one of followings, they were considered to be responders : (1) improvement of more than one grade in dyspnea index, (2) improvement in FVC or TLC more than 10% or improvement in DLco more than 20% (3) decreased extent of disease in chest HRCT findings. Result : One patient died of extrapulmonary cause after 3 month of therapy, and another patient gave up any further medical therapy due to side effect of steroid. Eventually medical records of 18 patients were analyzed. Nine of 18 patients were classified into responders and the other nine patients into nonresponders. The histopathologic diagnosis of the responders were all nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) and that of nonresponders were all usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) (p<0.001). The other significant differences between the two groups were female predominance (p<0.01), smoking history (p<0.001), severe grade of dyspnea (p<0.05), lymphocytosis in BAL fluid ($23.8{\pm}16.3%$ vs $7.8{\pm}3.6%$, p<0.05), and less honeycombing in chest HRCT findings (0% vs $9.2{\pm}2.3%$, p<0.001). Conclusion : Our results suggest that patients with histopathologic diagnosis of NSIP or lymphocytosis in BAL fluid are more likely to respond to steroid or immunosuppressive therapy. Clinical results in large numbers of IPF patients will be required to identify the independent variables.

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Effect of Bronchial Artery Embolization(BAE) in Management of Massive Hemoptysis (대량 객혈환자에서 기관지 동맥색전술의 효과)

  • Yeo, Dong-Seung;Lee, Suk-Young;Hyun, Dae-Seong;Lee, Sang-Haak;Kim, Seok-Chan;Choi, Young-Mee;Suh, Ji-Won;Ahn, Joong-Hyun;Song, So-Hyang;Kim, Chi-Hong;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1999
  • Background : Massive and untreated hemoptysis is associated with a mortality of greater than 50 percent. Since the bleeding is from a bronchial arterial source in the vast majority of patients, embolization of the bronchial arteries(BAE) has become an accepted treatment in the management of massive hemoptysis because it achieves immediate control of bleeding in 75 to 90 percent of the patients. Methods: Between 1990 and 1996, we treated 146 patients with hemoptysis by bronchial artery embolization. Catheters(4, 5, or 7F) and gelfoam, ivalon, and/or microcoil were used for embolization. Results: Pulmonary tuberculosis and related disorders were the most common underlying disease of hemoptysis(72.6%). Immediate success rate to control bleeding within 24hours was 95%, and recurrence rate was 24.7%. The recurrence rate occured within 6 months after embolization was 63.9%. Initial angiographic findings such as bilaterality, systemic-pulmonary artery shunt, neovascularity, aneurysm were not statistically correlated with rebleeding tendency(P>0.05). Among Initial radiographic findings, only pleural lesions were significantly correlated with rebleeding tendency(P<0.05). At additional bronchial artery angiograpy done due to rebleeding, recanalization of previous embolized arteries were 63.9%, and the presence of new feeding arteries were 16.7%, and 19.4% of patients with rebleeding showed both The complications such as fever, chest pain, headache, nausea and vomiting, arrhythmia, paralylytic ileus, transient sensory loss (lower extremities), hypotension, urination difficulty were noticed at 40 patients(27.4%). Conclusion: We conclude that bronchial artery embolization is relatively safe method achieving immediate control of massive hemoptysis. At initial angiographic findings, we could not find any predictive factors for subsequent rebleeding. It may warrant further study whether patients with pleural disease have definetely increased rebleeding tendency.

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A Study on the Growth Diagnosis and Management Prescription for Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214) (진안 평지리 이팝나무군(천연기념물 제214호)의 생육진단 및 관리방안)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Han, Sang-Yub;Choi, Yung-Hyun;Son, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2018
  • This study was attempted to find out the value of cultural assets through the clear diagnosis and prescription of the dead and weakness factors of the Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214), The results are as follows. First, Since the designation of 13 natural monuments in 1968, since 1973, many years have passed since then. In particular, despite the removal of some of the buried soil during the maintenance process, such as retreating from the fence of the primary school after 2010, Second, The first and third surviving tree of the designated trees also have many branches that are dead, the leaves are dull, and the amount of leaves is small. vitality of tree is 'extremely bad', and the first branch has already been faded by a large number of branches, and the amount of leaves is considerably low this year, so that only two flowers are bloomed. The second is also in a 'bad'state, with small leaves, low leaf density, and deformed water. The largest number 1 in the world is added to the concern that the s coverd oil is assumed to be paddy soils. Third, It is found that the composition ratio of silt is high because it is known as '[silty loam(SiL)]'. In addition, the pH of the northern soil at pH 1 was 6.6, which was significantly different from that of the other soil. In addition, the organic matter content was higher than the appropriate range, which is considered to reflect the result of continuous application for protection management. Fourth, It is considered that the root cause of failure and growth of Jinan pyeongji-ri Population of Retusa Fringe Trees group is chronic syndrome of serious menstrual deterioration due to covered soil. This can also be attributed to the newly planted succession and to some of the deaths. Fifthly, It is urgent to gradually remove the subsoil part, which is estimated to be the cause of the initial damage. Above all, it is almost impossible to remove the coverd soil after grasping the details of the soil, such as clayey soil, which is buried in the rootstock. After removal of the coverd soil, a pestle is installed to improve the respiration of the roots and the ground with Masato. And the dead 4th dead wood and the 5th and 6th dead wood are the best, and the lower layer vegetation is mown. The viable neck should be removed from the upper surface, and the bark defect should undergo surgery and induce the development of blindness by vestibule below the growth point. Sixth, The underground roots should be identified to prepare a method to improve the decompression of the root and the respiration of the soil. It is induced by the shortening of rotten roots by tracing the first half of the rootstock to induce the generation of new roots. Seventh, We try mulching to suppress weed occurrence, trampling pressure, and soil moisturizing effect. In addition, consideration should be given to the fertilization of the foliar fertilizer, the injection of the nutrients, and the soil management of the inorganic fertilizer for the continuous nutrition supply. Future monitoring and forecasting plans should be developed to check for changes continuously.

Analysis of shopping website visit types and shopping pattern (쇼핑 웹사이트 탐색 유형과 방문 패턴 분석)

  • Choi, Kyungbin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.85-107
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    • 2019
  • Online consumers browse products belonging to a particular product line or brand for purchase, or simply leave a wide range of navigation without making purchase. The research on the behavior and purchase of online consumers has been steadily progressed, and related services and applications based on behavior data of consumers have been developed in practice. In recent years, customization strategies and recommendation systems of consumers have been utilized due to the development of big data technology, and attempts are being made to optimize users' shopping experience. However, even in such an attempt, it is very unlikely that online consumers will actually be able to visit the website and switch to the purchase stage. This is because online consumers do not just visit the website to purchase products but use and browse the websites differently according to their shopping motives and purposes. Therefore, it is important to analyze various types of visits as well as visits to purchase, which is important for understanding the behaviors of online consumers. In this study, we explored the clustering analysis of session based on click stream data of e-commerce company in order to explain diversity and complexity of search behavior of online consumers and typified search behavior. For the analysis, we converted data points of more than 8 million pages units into visit units' sessions, resulting in a total of over 500,000 website visit sessions. For each visit session, 12 characteristics such as page view, duration, search diversity, and page type concentration were extracted for clustering analysis. Considering the size of the data set, we performed the analysis using the Mini-Batch K-means algorithm, which has advantages in terms of learning speed and efficiency while maintaining the clustering performance similar to that of the clustering algorithm K-means. The most optimized number of clusters was derived from four, and the differences in session unit characteristics and purchasing rates were identified for each cluster. The online consumer visits the website several times and learns about the product and decides the purchase. In order to analyze the purchasing process over several visits of the online consumer, we constructed the visiting sequence data of the consumer based on the navigation patterns in the web site derived clustering analysis. The visit sequence data includes a series of visiting sequences until one purchase is made, and the items constituting one sequence become cluster labels derived from the foregoing. We have separately established a sequence data for consumers who have made purchases and data on visits for consumers who have only explored products without making purchases during the same period of time. And then sequential pattern mining was applied to extract frequent patterns from each sequence data. The minimum support is set to 10%, and frequent patterns consist of a sequence of cluster labels. While there are common derived patterns in both sequence data, there are also frequent patterns derived only from one side of sequence data. We found that the consumers who made purchases through the comparative analysis of the extracted frequent patterns showed the visiting pattern to decide to purchase the product repeatedly while searching for the specific product. The implication of this study is that we analyze the search type of online consumers by using large - scale click stream data and analyze the patterns of them to explain the behavior of purchasing process with data-driven point. Most studies that typology of online consumers have focused on the characteristics of the type and what factors are key in distinguishing that type. In this study, we carried out an analysis to type the behavior of online consumers, and further analyzed what order the types could be organized into one another and become a series of search patterns. In addition, online retailers will be able to try to improve their purchasing conversion through marketing strategies and recommendations for various types of visit and will be able to evaluate the effect of the strategy through changes in consumers' visit patterns.

Dosimetric Characteristics of Detectors in Measurement of Beam Data for Small Fields of Linear Accelerator (선형가속기의 소조사면에 대한 빔 자료 측정에서 검출기의 선량 특성 분석)

  • Koo, Ki-Lae;Yang, Oh-Nam;Lim, Cheong-Hwan;Choi, Won-Sik;Shin, Seong-Soo;Ahn, Woo-Sang
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2012
  • Aquisition of accurate beam data is very important to calculate a reliable dose distribution of the treatment planning system for small radiation fields in intensity-modulated radiation therapy(IMRT) and stereotactic radiosurgery(SRS). For the measurement of small fields, the choice of a suitable detector is important due to the shape gradient in profile penumbra, the lack of lateral electronic equilibrium, and the effect of effective detector volume. Therefore, this study was to analyze the dosimetric characteristics of various detectors in measurement of beam data for small fields of linear accelerator. 0.01cc and 0.13cc ion chambers (CC01 and CC13) and a stereotactic diode detector(SFD) were used for measurement of small fields. The beam data, including the percent depth dose, output factor, and beam profile were acquired under 6 MV and 15 MV photon beams. Measurements were performed with the field size ranging from $2{\times}2cm^2$ to $5{\times}5cm^2$. For $2{\times}2cm^2$ field size, the differences of the ratios of $PDD_{20}$ and $PDD_{10}$ measured by CC01 and SFD detectors were 1.02% and 0.12% for 6 MV and 15 MV photon beams, respectively. For field sizes larger than $3{\times}3cm^2$, the differences of values of $PDD_{20}/PDD_{10}$ obtained from each detector were 1.15% and 0.71% for 6 MV and 15 MV photon beams, respectively. The output factors obtained from CC01 and SFD for $2{\times}2cm^2$ field size were within 0.5% and 1.5% for 6 MV and 15 MV, respectively. The differences in output factor of three detectors for $3{\times}3cm^2$ to $5{\times}5cm^2$ field sizes were within 0.5%. Profile penumbras measured by the SFD, CC01, and CC13 detectors at three depths were average 2.7 mm and 3.5 mm, 3.4 mm and 4.3 mm, and 5.2 mm and 6.1 mm for 6 MV and 15 MV photon beams, respectively. In conclusion, it could be possible to use of the CC01 and SFD detectors for the measurement of percent depth dose and output factor for $2{\times}2cm^2$ field size, and to use of three detectors for $3{\times}3cm^2$ to $5{\times}5cm^2$ field sizes. CC01 and SFD detectors, consider ably smaller than the radiation field, should be used in order to accurately measure the profile penumbra for small field sizes.

A Survey on Physical Complaints Related with Farmers' Syndrome of Vinylhouse and Non-vinylhouse Farmers (비닐하우스 재배농민과 일반농민의 농부증 관련 신체증상 호소율 조사)

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Park, Jung-Han;Kim, Doo-Hie
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.2 s.46
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    • pp.258-273
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    • 1994
  • To compare the physical complaints of vinylhouse farmers with those of non-vinylhouse farmers, a personal interviews on 250 vinylhouse and 142 non-vinylhouse farmers were conducted in Sungjoo county in Kyungpook province selected by a random sampling from July 5 to July 10, 1993. Blood pressure of the subjects was also measured. Vinylhouse farmers had a higher average age, larger family size, shorter experience of farming, more working hours per day and working days per year and higher annual income than the non-vinylhouse farmers. The frequency of pesticide spray of the vinylhouse farmers was 3.4 times on the average in June 1993 as compared with 2.0 times of non-vinylhouse farmers, and 16.7 times for the vinylhouse farmers during the last one year while it was 8.3 times for the non-vinylhouse farmers in the same period. While 39.6% of vinylhouse farmers experienced pesticide intoxication symptoms such as headache, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, itching, and skin irritation, etc. during the month of June, 25.4% of non-vinylhouse farmers experienced such symptoms. The most frequent symptoms among eight symptoms that constitute the farmers' syndrome were lumbago, numbness of hand or foot, shoulder pain and dizziness regardless of sex and type of farming. Prevalence of the farmers' syndrome in male and female among vinylhouse farmers were 22.1%, 43.4%, respectively, and the prevalence in non-vinylhouse farmers was 23.2% for male and 50.7% for female. There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of farmers' syndrome between vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers. However, the prevalence in female was about 2 times higher than that of male. When the effects of other factors were adjusted by multiple logistic regression for farmers' syndrome, the prevalence in female was 3.0 times higher than that of male. The prevalence of farmers' syndrome was increased as the age of farmers increased in both vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers, and adjusted odds ratio of farmers' syndrome increased by 3% as the age increased by 1 year. Adjusted odds ratio for Farmers' syndrome in farmers who experienced pesticide intoxication during the month of June was 3.1 times higher than that of farmers who did not have such experience. While the prevalence of hypertension in male and female non-vinylhouse farmers were 22.4%, 13.7%, respectively, the prevalence in vinylhouse farmers were 13.5% for male and 12.0% for female. However, there was no association between farmers' syndrome and hypertension. It was found in this study that the vinylhouse farmers are at a high risk of pesticide intoxication, which is associated with tile common physical complaints. To reduce such risk it is necessary to develop farming methods which do not require the pesticide or may use less pesticide, a safer method of pesticide spraying, and the protective equipments which can be worn at a high temperature and have a better protective effect. Also education of farmers for the correct methods of ventilation after pesticide spraying in the vinylhouse and wearing the protective equipments may be considered as a supportive method. Since inappropriate posture at work and intensive labor may cause farmers' syndrome, it is recommended to develop farming tools which reduce physical burden and take a rest and exercise periodically during work. It is necessary to strengthen the hypertension management program of the Kyungpook province, because the prevalence of hypertension was as high as about 15%.

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An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

Effects of insulin and IGF on growth and functional differentiation in primary cultured rabbit kidney proximal tubule cells - Effects of IGF-I on Na+ uptake - (초대배양된 토끼 신장 근위세뇨관세포의 성장과 기능분화에 대한 insulin과 IGF의 효과 - Na+ uptake에 대한 IGF-I의 효과 -)

  • Han, Ho-jae;Park, Kwon-moo;Lee, Jang-hern;Yang, IL-suk
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.783-794
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    • 1996
  • It has been suggested that ion transport systems are intimately involved in mediating the effects of growth regulatory factors on the growth of a number of different types of animal cells in vivo. The functional importance of the apical membrane $Na^+/H^+$ antiporter in the renal proximal tubule is evidenced by estimates that this transporter mediates the reabsorption of approximately one third of the filtered load of sodium and the bulk of the secretion of hydrogen ions. This study was designed to investigate the pathway utilized by IGF-I in regulating sodium transport in primary cultured renal proximal tubule cells. Results were as follows : 1. $Na^+$ was observed to accumulate in the primary cells as a function of time. Raising the concentration of extracellular NaCl induced an decrease in $Na^+$ uptake compared with control cells in a dose dependent manner. The rate of $Na^+$ uptake into the primary cells was about two times higher in the absence of NaCl($40.11{\pm}1.76pmole\;Na^+/mg\;protein/min$) than in the presence of 140mM NaCl($17.82{\pm}0.94pmole\;Na^+/mg\;protein/min$) at the 30 minute uptake. 2. $Na^+$ uptake was inhibited by IAA($1{\times}10^{-4}M$) or valinomycin($5{\times}10^{-6}M$) treatment($50.51{\pm}4.04$ and $57.65{\pm}2.27$ of that of control, respectively). $Na^+$ uptake by the primary proximal tubule cells was significantly increased by ouabain($5{\times}10^{-5}M$) treatment($140.23{\pm}3.37%$ of that of control). When actinomycin D($1{\times}10^{-7}M$) or cycloheximide($4{\times}10^{-5}M$) was applied, $Na^+$ uptake was decreased to $90.21{\pm}2.39%$ or $89.64{\pm}3.69%$ of control in IGF-I($1{\times}10^{-5}M$) treated cells, respectively. 3. Extracellular cAMP decreased $Na^+$ uptake in a dose-dependent manner($10^{-8}-10^{-4}M$). IBMX($5{\times}10^{-5}M$) also inhibited $Na^+$ uptake. Treatment of cells with pertussis toxin(50pg/ml) or cholera toxin($1{\mu}g/ml$) inhibited $Na^+$ uptake. Extracellular PMA decreased $Na^+$ uptake in a dose-dependent manner(1-100ng/ml). 100 ng/ml PMA concentration significantly inhibited $Na^+$ uptake in IGF-I treated cells. However, staurosporine($1{\times}10^{-7}M$) had no effect on $Na^+$ uptake. When PMA and staurosporine were added together, the inhibition of $Na^+$ uptake was not observed. In conclusion, sodium uptake in primary cultured rabbit renal proximal tubule cells was dependent on membrane potentials and intracellular energy levels. IGF-I stimulates sodium uptake through mechanisms that involve some degree of de novo protein and/or RNA synthesis, and cAMP and/or PKC pathway mediating the action mechanisms of IGF-I.

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Analysis of Health Functional Foods Advertisements Effects according to the Delivery Tool for Efficacy Information and Consumers' Attitudes (기능성 정보 전달 방법 및 소비자 태도에 따른 건강기능식품 광고 효과 분석)

  • Lee, Yeonkyung;Kim, Ji Yeon;Kwon, Oran;Hwang, In-Kyeong
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.835-848
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to find efficient and customized tools for delivering the benefit of health functional foods (HFFs). Delivery tools which could influence the impact of advertising were images, explanations of ingredients, diagrams of health benefit, patents, and comments from authority. Six advertisements were developed using these tools: "A": relevant image + explanation of ingredients + scientific diagram of efficacy; "B": relevant image + explanation of ingredients; "C": relevant image; "D": irrelevant image; "E": irrelevant image + explanation of ingredient + patent; "F": irrelevant image + explanation of ingredient + comments from authority. To analyze the consumer perceptions on HFFs and advertisement effects, 300 respondents were requested to answer a questionnaire comprising of the following questions: 5 questions of attitudes (necessity of HFFs, trust in HFFs, gathering information, watching advertisements and trust in advertisement claims) and 6 questions on the 6 developed advertisements (attention, understanding, sufficiency of information, sympathy, trust, and purchase). Scoring was done as per the 5 Likert scale. There was a higher proportion of females and the elderly, as compared to males and youngsters. The overall consumer attitudes were positive. Explanation of ingredients, scientific diagram of health benefit, patents and expert comments were helpful factors in increasing the advertisement evaluation by consumer, but the images were not. Advertisement evaluation of consumer did not differ with gender and age. However, differences were observed between some of the consumer attitudes (necessity of HFFs, trust in HFFs, gathering information and trust in advertisements claim) and advertisement evaluations (attention, understanding, sympathy and purchase). Our results indicate that for consumers utilizing the HFFs, advertisements with concrete tools such as diagrams, patent, and expert comments are more helpful. However, for consumers who do not have interest in HFFs, the scientific information was irrelevant. We believe that to maximize the effect of health information in advertisements, consumers should be segmented, and customized tools for each segment needs to be developed.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.