• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권7호
• /
• pp.349-356
• /
• 2021

This study comprehensively investigates whether there is an impact of risk, size, profitability, earnings per share, dividend yield, and book-to-market equity on the stock prices of Jordanian banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) for the period 2006-2018. To mitigate endogeneity concerns and to control for within-bank dynamics, panel data fixed effects estimations are used. This study shows that size (SIZE), profitability (ROA), dividend yield (DY) and book-to-market equity (BE/ME) ratios are statistically significant determinants of stock prices. The risk (RISK) factor measured by volatility of ROA has a positive and significant effect on the stock prices, while earnings per share has minimum influence on the stock prices. The results show that ROA has a significant and positive effect and provides the largest effect among all variables used in this study, while the RISK factor has a positive and significant effect. In contrast, SIZE, DY, and BE/ME have a significant negative effect on stock prices. The paper presented new evidence showing that ROA is a better determinant of stock prices in Jordanian banks, and RISK significantly affects stock prices. The researcher recommends using a factor of profitability represented by ROA which has a significant positive effect on the stock prices in Jordanian banks and applying the ROA variable to other sectors.

• 지역연구
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.33-51
• /
• 1999

After the 1997 currency crisis, the real estate prices had been rapidly dropped and the deregulation in the Korean real estate merket has been performed. It is analyzed whether these transactions caused a structural change in real estate market, or not. The Pettitt test shows there exists a turing point in real estate prices in 1998. It is found that the degrees of co-movement between the change in real estate prices and real GDP growth rate are increased. Consequently, the factor, represented as real GDP growth rate, determining the market fundamental of real estate prices will effect on the behavioral pattern and the real estate prices in the long run. While the factors determining the portfolio selection behaviors, such as interest rate and stock prices, will cause short-term variations.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권12호
• /
• pp.131-138
• /
• 2020

In accordance with huge demand for capital to meet the expansion of steel production, there are more and more steel companies who have officially listed their stocks in HOSE and HNX. One of the key issues in successful initial public offerings and seasonal offerings for these companies is how to make stocks of steel companies become more attractive in the eyes of investors. The purpose of this research is to analyze the determinants of share prices of listed steel companies in Vietnam. This study utilized macro-economic variables, ratios and indicators representing characteristics of steel industry collected from Quarter 1/2006 to Quarter 4/2019 in association with the panel data and the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model to evaluate the degree of these factors on the share prices. The results of the research show that ROE, Cons_rate, and CO2_rate are three main factors affecting the share prices of listed steel companies. Among which, ROE and Cons_rate have a positive effect, while CO2_rate has a negative effect on the share prices of listed steel companies. It also confirms the relationship between the environmental factor, construction industry factor and the stock prices. This lays foundations for recommendations for the future policies towards environmental protection and sustainable development.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제13권11호
• /
• pp.39-46
• /
• 2015

Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

• 국제지역연구
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.3-17
• /
• 2017

본 논문은 자기회귀시차(ARDL) 모형으로부터 도출된 오차수정모형을 이용하여 8개 제조 산업을 대상으로 수출의 임금탄력도, 수출의 이자율탄력도 그리고 수출의 수입물가지수 탄력도를 추정함으로서 생산요소가격의 변동이 수출성과에 미치는 효과를 산업별로 분석하였다. 실증분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 수출의 임금탄력도, 이자율탄력도, 그리고 수입물가지수 탄력도의 부호는 모두 대부분의 제조 산업에서 1%의 통계적 유의 수준에서 기대부호대로 음(-)으로 나타났다. 그리고 자본집약도가 큰 산업일수록 임금탄력도가 작게 나타났으며 다른 한편 해외수입중간재 비중이 높은 산업일수록 수입물가지수 탄력도가 크게 나타나는 경향을 보이고 있다. 따라서 실증분석 결과는 외환위기 이후에 이자율의 하락, 수입물가지수의 증가율 하락, 그리고 실질임금 증가율의 둔화 등으로 나타난 생산요소가격의 하락현상은 제조산업의 수출성과에 지대한 영향을 주었음을 입증하고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.67-74
• /
• 2017

본 논문은 기후와 국제곡물가격의 인과관계를 분석한다. 기후는 곡물시장에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인이지만 국제곡물가격의 인과관계를 분석한 선행연구는 제한적이다. 본 논문은 대표적인 세계기후 변수인 해양표면온도 (sea surface temperature; SST)와 세계 3대 곡물인 밀, 옥수수, 콩의 국제가격을 이용하여 1987년 5월부터 2013년 7월까지 기간의 월별자료를 분석하였다. 분석방법으로서 비모수 커널방법으로 제시된 고차 적률 인과관계 개념 (Nishiyama 등, 2011)을 모수적인 방법으로 변환하여 적용하였다. 분석결과, 기후는 1차 적률에서 3개 곡물가격 모두에 대해 그리고 2차 적률에서 옥수수와 콩의 가격에 대해 각각 인과관계를 가지며 3차 적률에서는 3개 곡물가격 모두에 대해 인과관계를 갖지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

• 신재생에너지
• /
• 제6권3호
• /
• pp.13-21
• /
• 2010

This paper analyzes the factors of renewable energy consumption in Korea, China and Japan. We consider renewable energy consumption per capita as dependent variable, GDP per capita, $CO_2$ emissions per capita and real oil prices as independent variables. To analyze this model, this paper uses three econometric methods such as OLS, fixed effect model and panel GLS, utilizing data from 1990 to 2006 in Korea, China and Japan. According to the results by OLS for each country, an increase in GDP per capita or $CO_2$ emissions per capita or oil prices leads to an increase in renewable energy consumption. According to the results by fixed effect model, an increase in GDP per capita or $CO_2$ emissions per capita leads to an increase in renewable energy consumption. And real oil prices do not have a significant impacts on this model. According to the results by panel GLS, an increase in real GDP per capita as a proxy of income leads to an increase renewable energy consumption. And both $CO_2$ emissions per capita and real oil prices do not correlated closely with renewable energy consumption. Thus oil is not substituted to renewable energy in Northeast asian countries.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제17권11호
• /
• pp.93-101
• /
• 2019

Purpose: Blockchain technology suggests ways to solve the problems in the existing industry. Among them, Cryptocurrency system, which is an element of Blockchain technology, is a very important factor for operating Blockchain. While Blockchain cryptocurrency has attracted attention, studies on cryptocurrency prices have been mainly conducted, however previous studies mainly conducted on Bitcoin prices. On the other hand, in the context of the creation and trading of various cryptocurrencies based on the Blockchain system, little research has been done on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Hence, this study attempts to find variables related to the prices of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrencies using machine learning techniques. We also attempt to find differences in the variables related to the prices for each cryptocurrencies and to examine machine learning techniques that can provide better performance. Research design, data, and methodology: This study performed Dash, Litecoin, and Monero price prediction analysis of cryptocurrency using Blockchain information and machine learning techniques. We employed number of transactions in Blockchain, amount of generated cryptocurrency, transaction fees, number of activity accounts in Blockchain, Block creation difficulty, block size, umber of created blocks as independent variables. This study tried to ensure the reliability of the analysis results through 10-fold cross validation. Blockchain information was hierarchically added for price prediction, and the analysis result was measured as RMSE and MAPE. Results: The analysis shows that the prices of Dash, Litecoin and Monero cryptocurrency are related to Blockchain information. Also, we found that different Blockchain information improves the analysis results for each cryptocurrency. In addition, this study found that the neural network machine learning technique provides better analysis results than support-vector machine in predicting cryptocurrency prices. Conclusion: This study concludes that the information of Blockchain should be considered for the prediction of the price of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrency. It also suggests that Blockchain information related to the price of cryptocurrency differs depending on the type of cryptocurrency. We suggest that future research on various types of cryptocurrencies is needed. The findings of this study can provide a theoretical basis for future cryptocurrency research in distribution management.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
• /
• 제17권5호
• /
• pp.179-185
• /
• 2016

본 연구에서는 금융위기 이후 투기적 성향의 거래가 원자재 가격 상승의 주요 요인으로 작용했음을 구조적 벡터자기회귀(SVAR: Structural Vector Auto Regressive) 모형을 이용해 정량적으로 증명했다. SVAR 모형을 추정 후 충격반응 분석과 분산분해 결과에서 금융위기 이후 투기 거래가 원자재 가격에 미친 영향력이 금융위기 전 보다 3~6배 커진 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 금융위기 이후 급증한 글로벌 유동성도 원자재 가격에 영향을 준 것으로 나타났다. 금융위기 이전에는 산업생산 등 수요와 경기 요인이 원자재 가격에 크게 영향을 주었으나 금융위기 이후에는 그 영향력이 감소했다. 따라서 금융위기 이후 원자재 가격 반등은 유동성 확대에 따른 투기 거래 증가에 영향을 받은 것으로 판단할 수 있다. 미국은 2015년 12월 금리 인상을 시작했고 향후 금융 긴축 기조를 지속할 것으로 전망되어 글로벌 유동성이 감소할 가능성이 커지고 있다. 금융위기 이후 원자재 가격이 금융 변수의 영향을 크게 받았기 때문에 향후 유동성이 감소한다면 투기 거래가 위축되고 원자재 가격의 하락 요인으로 작용할 것으로 예상된다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.34-46
• /
• 2021

Purpose - This paper aims to analyze the impact of the terms of trade, export price, and import price on the Korean economy (that is, real GDP, CPI, money market rate, and real effective exchange rate), and vice versa in the simple vector autoregression. Design/methodology - We impose two assumptions, i.e., diagonality and bloc exogeneity, to correctly identify the impact of a factor to the others in the structural equation. With two contemporaneous assumptions in the structural VAR, this paper investigates the impacts of the terms of trade on the Korean economy and vice versa. Findings - Impulse responses to the shocks in the terms of trade and Korean economy show that 1) an impact of the terms of trade on the economy is different in export prices and in import prices. A higher export price is beneficial to the economy while a higher import price hurts the economy, and 2) an increase in real effective exchange rate and in interest rate constrains domestic production and lowers consumer prices. Originality/value - Unlike the conventional perception that a depreciation of a currency would promote exports and domestic production at the price of inflation, our result shows the opposite, and 3) real GDP and consumer prices are positively correlated. That is, an increase in real GDP does not only cause inflation, but an increase in consumer prices also promote domestic production. Yet, the only difference is that export prices and import prices end up higher with an increase in real GDP, but lower with inflation.