• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제43권6호
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• pp.699-708
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• 2023

원자력 발전소는 안전하게 운영될 수 있도록 설계단계에서 자연재해를 포함한 예상 가능한 모든 외부사건들이 고려되고 있다. 그러나 최근에 기후변화로 인해 설계를 초과하는 자연재해의 발생 가능성이 증가하면서 설계 당시에 예측하지 못했던 극한자연재해와 외부사건에 대해 세심한 검토가 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 원전 부지별 잠재적 극한자연재해를 선별하고자 하였다. 이를 위해서 원전 부지특성과 원전 부지별 외부재해로 인해 발생한 사건을 조사하고 분석하였다. 그리고 기존 문헌과 연구 자료를 조사하여 국내 원전 실정에 맞는 선별절차와 기준을 수립하였다. 본 연구에서 수립된 선별기준에 근거하여 원전 부지별로 정성적 선별을 수행하였고, 선별된 자연재해를 대상으로 정량적 선별과 현장실사를 통해 국내 원전 부지별 잠재적 극한자연재해를 선별하였다. 선별 결과, 폭우에 의한 내부침수 이외에도 강풍에 의한 풍압과 극한 공기압이 모든 부지에서 공통적인 잠재적 극한자연재해로 선별되었다. 그리고 고리부지의 경우 폭풍해일이 1순위의 잠재적 극한자연재해로 선정되었다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2015년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.257-258
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• 2015

The amount of damages caused by natural hazards is consistently growing due to the unusual weather and extreme events. At the same time, property damage by natural hazards is rapidly increasing as well. Hence, we need systematic anti-disaster activities and consulting that can react to such a situation. To address these needs, we investigated and analyzed insured claim payouts from natural hazards by administrative area, and calculate the risk index utilizing GIS. According to the index, this map is identifying the areas of greatest natural hazard risk. The ranking of natural disaster vulnerability based on the risk index, and risk grades were divided into five based on the ranking. This map integrates the natural hazard losses to assist in comprehensive and effective loss prevention activities using analysis of regional loss claims from natural hazards. Moreover, this map can be as utilized as loss mitigation and prevention activities to verify the distribution of exposure and hazards.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.166-166
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• 2023

Compound hazards (CHs) are two or more extreme climate events combined which occur simultaneously in the same region at the same time. Compared to individual hazards, the combination of hazards that cause CHs can result in greater economic losses and deaths. While several extreme climate events have been recorded across Asia for the past decades, many studies have only focused on a single hazard. In this study, we assess the spatiotemporal pattern of dry compound hazards which includes drought, heatwave, fire and wind across Asia for the last 42 years (1980-2021) using the historical data from ERA5 Reanalysis dataset. We utilize a daily spatial data of each climate event to assess the occurrence of such compound hazards on a daily basis. Heatwave, fire and wind hazard occurrences are analyzed using daily percentile-based thresholds while a pre-defined threshold for SPI is applied for drought occurrence. Then, the occurrence of each type of compound hazard is taken from overlapping the map of daily occurrences of a single hazard. Lastly, a multivariate assessment are conducted to quantify the occurrence frequency, hotspots and trends of each type of compound hazard across Asia. By conducting a multivariate analysis of the occurrence of these compound hazards, we identify the relationships and interactions in dry compound hazards including droughts, heatwaves, fires, and winds, ultimately leading to better-informed decisions and strategies in the natural risk management.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.91-110
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• 2020

The reliability of structures is affected by various impacts that generally have a negative effect, from extreme weather conditions, due to climate change to natural or man-made hazards. In recent years, extreme loading has had an enormous impact on the resilience of structures as one of the most important characteristics of the sound design of structures, besides the structural integrity and robustness. Resilience can be defined as the ability of the structure to absorb or avoid damage without suffering complete failure, and it can be chosen as the main objective of design, maintenance and restoration for structures and infrastructure. The latter needs further clarification (which is done in this paper), to achieve the clarity of goals compared to robustness which is defined in Eurocode EN 1991-1-7 as: "the ability of a structure to withstand events like fire, explosions, impact or the consequences of human error, without being damaged to an extent disproportionate to the original cause". Many existing structures are more vulnerable to the natural or man-made hazards due to their material deterioration, and a further decrease of its loadbearing capacity, modifying the structural performance and functionality and, subsequently, the system resilience. Due to currently frequent extreme events, the design philosophy is shifting from Performance-Based Design to Resilience-Based Design and from unit to system (community) resilience. The paper provides an overview of such design evolution with indicative needs for Resilience-Based Design giving few conducted examples.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2016년도 추계 학술발표논문집
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• pp.44-48
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• 2016

Extreme temperature impacts on field crop are of key concern and increasingly assessed, however the studies have seldom taken into account the automatic adaptations such as shifts in planting dates, phenological dynamics and cultivars. In this present study, trial data on rice phenology, agro-meteorological hazards and yields during 1981-2009 at 120 national agro-meteorological experiment stations were used. The detailed data provide us a unique opportunity to quantify extreme temperature impacts on rice yield more precisely and in a setting with automatic adaptations.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.801-810
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• 2013

본 연구는 기후변화로 인하여 심각해져가고 있는 자연재해에 보다 효율적인 대응방안을 마련하기 위한 이론적 토대를 확립하고자 도시계획분야의 지속가능성 개념을 재정립하였다. 과거 지속가능성 개념에 대한 고찰과 최근 미국 방재학계의 동향을 분석하여 마련한 새로운 지속가능개발은 기존 환경분야 주요 목표인 환경보호와 더불어 이상기후로부터 도시 사회 안전성 확보가 포함되어야 함을 인식하였다. 그리고 도시 사회 안전성 확보는 저탄소녹색도시 관련요소와의 연계 속에서 이뤄져야 함을 강조하였다. 또한 환경, 경제, 사회분야의 목표를 동시에 추구함으로써 야기되는 갈등을 인식하고 대형화된 자연재해에 효과적으로 대응하기 위하여 기존 공학 시설중심의 구조적 방재대책과 더불어 비구조적 대책의 적극적 도입 필요성을 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 이론적 틀을 바탕으로 도시계획분야의 향후 연구는 갈등 조정 중재를 위한 새로운 제도적 틀 마련과 함께 APFM(the Associated Programme on Flood Management)에서 제시한 '노출(Exposure)'과 '취약성(Vulnerability)' 요인을 바탕으로 환경보호와 안전성 확보는 물론 관련 갈등해소에 기여할 수 있는 세부 요소 목표설정, 구체적 관련 기술개발 등에 노력해야 할 것으로 판단된다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.59-65
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• 2015

Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.313-319
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• 2022

The resiliency of electricity transmission and distribution lines towards natural and man-made hazards is critical to the operation of cities and businesses. The extension of these lines throughout the country increases their risk of extreme loading conditions. This paper investigates a unique extreme loading condition of a 100-year old distribution line segment that passes across a river and got entangled with a boom of a ship. The study adopts the Applied Elements Method (AEM) for simulating 54 cases of the highly deformable structural behaviour of the tower. The most significant effects on the tower's structural integrity were found to occur when applying the load with components in all three of the cartesian directions (i.e., X, Y and Z) with the full capacities of the four cables. The studied extreme loading condition was determined to be within the tower's structural capacity, attributed to the shear failure of the anchor bolts, which acted as a sacrificing element that fails to protect the transfer of tensioning load to the supporting tower.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.110-147
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• 2022

Many megacities are exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, and when located in coastal regions, are also vulnerable to hurricanes and tsunamis. The physical infrastructures of transportation systems in megacities have become so complicated that very few organizations can understand their response to extreme events such as earthquakes and can effectively mitigate subsequent economic downfalls. The technological advances made in recent years to support these complex systems have not grown as fast as the rapid demand on these systems burdened by population shift toward megacities. The objective of this paper is to examine the risks imposed on and recoveries of transportation systems in megacities as the result of extreme events such as an earthquake. First, the physical damage to transportation infrastructure, loss of the transportation system performance, and the corresponding economic loss from disruptions to passenger and freight traffic is evaluated. Then, traffic flows are re-routed to reduce vehicles' delay due to earthquakes using a microscopic traffic flow simulator with an optimization model and macroscopic terminal simulator. Finally, the economic impact of the earthquake is estimated nationwide. Southern California is regarded as the region of study. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the integrated model and provide what and how to prepare innovative resilience policies of urban infrastructure for a natural disaster occurrence.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.655-665
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• 2014

폭염, 폭우와 가뭄 등과 같은 이상 기후 현상에 대한 적절한 대응이 최근 많이 요구되고 있다. 이상 기후 현상을 분석하기 위해 극단값 분석 기법을 적용할 수 있는데, 본 논문은에서는 한국의 여름철 강수량 자료(1973년부터 2012년까지의 5월부터 9월)를 분계점 초과값 모형으로 분석해보았다. 분계점은 한국의 기상관측소들을 5개의 군집으로 나누어, 각 군집별로 지리 정보와 시간을 공변량으로 하는 분위수 회귀 방법을 통하여 추정하였다. Northrop과 Jonathan (2011)과 같이 극단값들이 시공간적으로 독립이라고 가정하고 분석한 후, 추정오차와 검정 과정에 공간 종속성을 반영하였다.