• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.480-494
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• 2009

장기간의 극치 파랑자료는 연안 및 항만구조물의 계획 및 설계에서 매우 중요한 인자이다. 그러나, 한국 연안 심해파는 관측 자료가 한정되어 있으므로 기상정보로부터 사후추정한 장기간의 파랑자료를 이용하고 있다. 한국해양연구원(2005)에서는 1979년부터 2003년까지의 한국연안 106개 지점의 극치 파랑 자료를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 이 자료를 활용하여 최적 극치분포 함수를 분석하고, Goda(2004)가 제안한 확산모수를 산정하였다. 산정된 확산모수는 모멘트법으로 산정한 결과와 잘 일치하였다. 그러나, 확산모수가 외국사례보다 큰 1.0에서 2.8에 이르고 있기 때문에 차후 설계파에 대한 검토가 필요하다.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.71-77
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• 2010

Although the problems of defects and nonmetallic inclusion in metal fatigue are very complicated, it is particularly important to view these problems from the perspective that defects and inclusions are virtually equivalent to small cracks. This concept will help one to understand various fatigue phenomena caused by Ductile Cast Iron. For different ferrite-pearlite matrix structure, containing more than 90% spheroidal ratio of graphite, GCD 45-3, GCD 50, GCD 60 series and 70%, 80%, 90% spheroidal ratio of graphite, GCD 40, GCD 45-1, GCD 45-2 series, this paper has carried out image analyzer, estimated maximum and mean size of graphite, investigated correlation. It was concluded as follows. (1) A good quality of Ductile cast iron using in this experiment, the graphite was separated well. The effect of the interaction by graphite was verified by microscopic observation and by fracture mechanics investigation in surface, interior of the specimen. (2)${\sqrt{area}}_{max}$ of graphite can be used to predict fatigue limit of Ductile Cast Iron. The Statistical distribution of extreme values of ${\sqrt{area}}$ may be used as a guide line for the control of inclusion size in the steel making processes.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.459-470
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• 2012

본 연구는 강원도 농업을 사례로 1993-2010년 기간 동안 11개 시군별 기후, 지리 및 토양, 사회 경제적 변수들에 대한 패널자료를 구축하고 리카디언 방법을 사용하여 극한기후 변수들이 논과 밭 경작유형별로 토지가치에 미친 경제적 효과를 추정하고자 시도한다. 추정결과에 따르면, 호우 관련 극한기후 변수는 논과 밭의 토지가치와 부정적인 관계가 있다. 여름철 관련 극한기온 변수들은 토지가치에 음(-)의 영향을 미치고 있지만, 한파를 제외한 겨울철 관련 극한기온 변수들은 토지가치와 정(+)의 관계를 보여주고 있다.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.255-263
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• 2023

Western coastal area of Chungnam, including Cheonsu Bay and Garorim Bay, has suffered from hot and cold extremes. In this study, the extreme sea surface temperature on the western coast of Chungnam was analyzed using the quantile regression method, which extracts the linear regression values in all quantiles. The regional MOHID (MOdelo HIDrodinâmico) model, with a high resolution on a 1/60° grid, was constructed to reproduce the extreme sea surface temperature. For future prediction, the SSP5-8.5 scenario data of the CMIP6 model were used to simulate sea surface temperature variability. Results showed that the extreme sea surface temperature of Cheonsu Bay in August 2017 was successfully simulated, and this extreme sea surface temperature had a significant negative correlation with the Pacific decadal variability index. As a result of future climate prediction, it was found that an average of 2.9℃ increased during the simulation period of 86 years in the Chungnam west coast and there was a seasonal difference (3.2℃ in summer, 2.4℃ in winter). These seasonal differences indicate an increase in the annual temperature range, suggesting that extreme events may occur more frequently in the future.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.469-482
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• 2022

The generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is frequently used to fit the block maximum of environmental parameters such as the annual maximum wind speed. There are several methods for estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution, including the least-squares method (LSM). However, the application of the LSM with the expected order statistics has not been reported. This study fills this gap by proposing a fitting method based on the expected order statistics. The study also proposes a plotting position to approximate the expected order statistics; the proposed plotting position depends on the distribution shape parameter. The use of this approximation for distribution fitting is carried out. Simulation analysis results indicate that the developed fitting procedure based on the expected order statistics or its approximation for GEVD is effective for estimating the distribution parameters and quantiles. The values of the probability plotting correlation coefficient that may be used to test the distributional hypothesis are calculated and presented. The developed fitting method is applied to extreme thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm winds for several major cities in Canada. Also, the implication of using the GEVD and Gumbel distribution to model the extreme wind speed on the structural reliability is presented and elaborated.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.423-435
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• 2021

Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제13권7호
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• pp.269-280
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• 2008

소프트웨어 개발방법론의 선택은 항상 고민거리가 되어왔다. 극한 프로그래밍(XP) 방법론 도입의 문제점을 소프트웨어 개발 현장에서도 찾아보는 노력이 필요한 시점이다. 본 논문에서는 점점 대중화되고 있는 XP 방법론의 도입 현황을 살펴본 후, XP의 구성요소인 "가치"와 "실천"이 개발자들에게 어떻게 받아들여지고 있는지를 유용성과 이용용이성을 기준으로 조사하였다. 연구 결과 XP는 소프트웨어 개발과정의 품질과 적기를 개선시키는데 매우 성공적이라고 받아들여지고 있었다. 또한, XP의 애자일 철학과 적용의 기반이 되는"가치"와 "실천"은 성취하기가 비교적 수월했지만, 이중에서 기술에는 거의 종속되지 않은 의사소통 피드백, 공동 소유권, 짝 프로그래밍, 단순설계, 고객 참여와 같은 요소는 성취하기 어렵다고 파악되었다. 창의적이고 노동 집약적인 소프트웨어 개발현장에서 XP가 더욱 잘 수용되기 위해서는, 본 연구결과가 시사하는 바와 같이 관리자나 교육자들이 기술적 요소 외에도 인간적인 특성에 기반한 가치와 실천의 활용에 보다 많은 노력을 해야 한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.59-65
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• 2015

Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

• Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.185-194
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• 2018

In this study, the extreme sloshing pressure was predicted using various statistical models: three-parameter Weibull distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, and three-parameter log-logistic distribution. The estimation of sloshing impact pressure is important in design of liquid cargo tank in severe sea state. In order to get the extreme values of local impact pressures, a lot of model tests have been carried out and statistical analysis has been performed. Three-parameter Weibull distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are widely used as the statistical analysis method in sloshing phenomenon, but generalized extreme value distribution and three-parameter log-logistic distribution are added in this study. Additionally, statistical distributions are fitted to peak pressure data using three different parameter estimation methods. The data were obtained from a three-dimensional sloshing model text conducted at Seoul National University. The loading conditions were 20%, 50%, and 95% of tank height, and the analysis was performed based on the measured impact pressure on four significant panels with large sloshing impacts. These fittings were compared by observing probability of exceedance diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient test for goodness-of-fit.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.87-109
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• 2012

A substantial part of South Africa is subject to more than one strong wind source. The effect of that on extreme winds is that higher quantiles are usually estimated with a mixed strong wind climate estimation method, compared to the traditional Gumbel approach based on a single population. The differences in the estimated quantiles between the two methods depend on the values of the Gumbel distribution parameters for the different strong wind mechanisms involved. Cluster analysis of the distribution parameters provides a characterization of the effect of the relative differences in their values, and therefore the dominance of the different strong wind mechanisms. For gusts, cold fronts tend to dominate over the coastal and high-lying areas, while other mechanisms, especially thunderstorms, are dominant over the lower-lying areas in the interior. For the hourly mean wind speeds cold fronts are dominant in the south-west, south and east of the country. On the West Coast the ridging of the Atlantic Ocean high-pressure system dominate in the south, while the presence of a deep trough or coastal low pressure system is the main strong wind mechanism in the north. In the central interior cold fronts tend to share their influence almost equally with other synoptic-scale mechanisms.