• 제목/요약/키워드: Extreme Process

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Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA (HadGEM3-RA 지역기후모델을 이용한 CORDEX 동아시아 2단계 지역의 기온과 강수 모의 평가)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.

Developing domestic flood resilience indicators and assessing applicability and significance (국내 홍수회복력 지표 개발과 적용성 및 중요도 평가)

  • Kim, Soohong;Jung, Kichul;Kang, Hyeongsik;Shin, Seoyoung;Kim, Jieun;Park, Daeryong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제57권8호
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    • pp.533-548
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    • 2024
  • Due to climate change with extreme weather events, occurrences of unprecedented heavy rainfall have become more frequent. Since it is difficult to perfectly predict and prevent flood damages, the limitation of traditional prevention-centered approaches has come a issue. The concept of "resilience" has therefore been developed which emphasizes the ability to swiftly recover from damages to previous states or to even better conditions. In this study, we 1) developed a total of 20 domestic flood resilience indicators based on the 4R principles (Redundancy, Robustness, Rapidity, Resourcefulness), 2) conducted applicability evaluations targeting specific disaster-prone areas, and 3) assessed the importance of each indicator through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis with flood-related experts. To confirm the suitability of the developed flood resilience indicators, multicollinearity analysis was performed, and the results indicated that all 20 indicators had tolerance limits above 0.1 and Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) below 10, demonstrating suitability as factors. Furthermore, evaluations of proposed indicators were carried out targeting disaster-prone areas in 2022(21 areas), and AHP analysis was utilized to determine the relative importance of each indicator. The analysis revealed that the importance of each indicator was as follows: Robustness 0.46, Rapidity 0.22, Redundancy 0.17, and Resourcefulness 0.16, with Robustness exhibiting the highest importance. Regarding the sub-indicators that had the greatest influence on each 4R component, river embankment maintenance emerged as the most influential for Robustness, healthcare services for Rapidity, fiscal autonomy of local governments for Resourcefulness, and drainage facilities for Redundancy.

Structure of Export Competition between Asian NIEs and Japan in the U.S. Import Market and Exchange Rate Effects (한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로)

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 1990
  • This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

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The Effect of Service Failure on the Desire for Betrayal and Retaliatory Behavior - Based on the Moderating Role of the Customer-Service Firm Relationship Quality (서비스 실패요인이 보복행위에 미치는 영향과 관계품질의 조절효과)

  • Kim, Mo Ran;Ahn, Kwang Ho
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.99-130
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    • 2012
  • Service failure and a poor service recovery may lead loyal customers to try to aggressively punish the service firm. We use perceived betrayal and desire for vengeance as the key constructs to understand customer retaliation. Perceived betrayal is defined as a customer's belief that a firm has intentionally violated what is normative in the context of their relationship. And the desire for vengeance is defined as the retaliatory feelings that consumers feel toward a firm, such as the desire to exert harm on the firm. The perceived betrayal and the desire for vengeance are key antecedents of retaliatory behaviors such as vindictive complaining, negative WOM and third-party complaining for publicity. The empirical results suggest that betrayal is a key motivational factor that lead customers to restore fairness by making use of all means, including retaliation. We also find that relationship quality has effect on a customer's response to a failure in service recovery. As the levels of relationship increases, a violation of the proper fairness has a stronger effect on the sense of betrayal experienced by customers. Considerable research has investigated consumer responses to dissatisfaction. But our study examine the response of outraged and highly frustrated consumers. We focus on emotional and behavioral processes that have not been covered by previous dissatisfaction researches and which are unique to outraged consumers caused by extremely dissatisfied purchase experience. It has recently been pointed out by various mass media that the customers not only have positive effects on the company performance but also put the company in crisis. It has often been reported that one customer's dissatisfaction, for example, never ends as it is, and it tends to grow for retaliating upon the company, depending on the level of seriousness of the dissatisfaction. This sometimes leads to a lawsuit against the company. Our study focuses on the customers' emotional and behavioral responses induced by their extreme dissatisfactions. We divided the customer groups into the customers with high relationship quality and the customers with low relationship quality, and the difference between two groups is examined. The objective of this study is to comprehend the causal relationship between the feeling of betrayal caused by the service failure and the retaliatory behavior triggered by the desire of revenge. Our study is divided into three parts. First, a causal relationship between perceived unfairness and the perceived betrayal and desire for revenge. Second, the effect of the perceived betrayal and desire for revenge on the retaliatory behavior is investigated. Finally, the moderating role of relationship quality in the causal relationship between the unfairness in service recovery and the perceived betrayal is analyzed. This study finds the following empirical results. The distributive unfairness, procedural unfairness and interactional unfairness had significant effects on the perceived betrayal. Especially, the perceived distributive unfairness results in the highest perceived betrayal. When the service company does not provide customers proper and sufficient compensation for the failure, they feel the strong sense of betrayal. And in the causal relationship between the perceived betrayal, desire for revenge and retaliatory behavior, the perceived betrayal has significant effects on e desire for revenge. In addition desire for revenge has significant effects on negative word of mouth, retaliatory complaining behavior and publicity of complaints through third group. Therefore the perceived unfairness has effects on retaliatory behavior through the mediation of the perceived betrayal and desire for revenge. Finally the moderating role of relationship quality was examined in the relationship between the unfairness and perceived betrayal. If the customers experienced the perceived unfairness in the process of service recovery, the customers with high relationship quality feel the stronger perceived betrayal than the customers with low relationship quality do. When they experience the double service failure, the customer group with high relationship quality accumulating the sense of trust feel the more perceived betrayal than the customer with low relationship quality who do not have strong trust. The contribution of this study is to find the effect of the service failure on the retaliatory behavior with the moderating roles of relationship quality. The dimensions of unfairness in service recovery is found to have differential effects on the perceived betrayal, desire for revenge. And these differential effect is moderated by the level of relationship quality.

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Dreams of Admiral Yi Sun-sin (1545-1598) in Nanjung Ilgi (Diary in War Time) and Some Aspects of His Personality: From Jungian Viewpoint (≪난중일기≫에서 본 이순신의 꿈과 인격의 몇 가지 측면: 분석심리학적 입장에서)

  • Bou-Yong Rhi
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • 제37권2호
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    • pp.99-148
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    • 2022
  • This study aims at the psychological elucidation of some conscious aspects of the personality of Yi Sun-sin (1545-1598), the Korean national hero, and the unconscious teleologic meanings of his dreams mentioned in Nanjung Ilgi (Diary in War Time) from the viewpoint of analytical psychology of C.G. Jung. Yi Sun-sin was a man of discipline, incorporated with the spirit of Confucian filial piety, hyo (hsiao) and royalty, chung. He was a stern man but with a warm heart. In his diary, Yi Sun-sin poured forth his feelings of suffering, despair, and extreme solicitude caused by slanders of his political opponents, his grief for the loss of mother and son, and his worries about the fate of his country, which the Japanese invaders now plundered. The moon night offered him the opportunity to touch with his inner soul, by reciting poems, playing Korean string, 'Keomungo', and flute. Further, he widened his scope by asking for the answers from the 'Heaven' through divination and dream. Yi Sun-sin's attitude toward his mother who raised the future hero and maternal principles were considered in concern with the Jungian term 'mother complex'. Won Gyun, Yi Sun-sin's rival admiral, who persistently accused Yi Sun-sin of 'slanders,' certainly represents the unconscious shadow image of Yi Sun-sin. The reciprocal 'shadow' projection has intervened in the conflicting relationship between Yi and Won. In concern to the argument for the suicidal death of Yi Sun-sin, the author found no evidence supporting such an argument, No trace of latent suicidal wish was found in his dreams. For Yi Sun-sin, the determination of the life and death depends on Heaven. 32 dreams from the diary and 3 from other historical references were reviewed and analyzed in the Jungian way. Symbols of anima, Self, and individuation process were found. His dream repeatedly suggests that Yi Sun-sin is an extraordinary man chosen by the divine man (神人). In the dream, Yi Sun-sin was a disciple of the divine man receiving instructions on various strategies, and he alone could see the great thing or events. The dream of a beautiful blue and red dragon, whom he was friendly touching, indicates Yi Sun-sin's eligibility for the kingship. Yi Sun-sin seemingly did not aware of this message of the unconscious. Perhaps he sensed something special but did not identify with 'the disciple of gods' and 'royal dragon' in his dream. His modest attitude toward the dream has prevented him from falling into ego inflation. There were warning signals in two dreams that suggested disorders in the dreamer's instinctive feminine drive. Spirits of the dead father and brothers appear in the dream, giving advice or mourning for the death of Sun-sin's mother. Though Yi Sun-sin was a genuine Confucian gentleman, a dream revealed his unconscious drive to destroy the Confucian authoritative 'Persona' by trampling down the cylindrical traditional Korean hat. To the dreams of synchronicity phenomena Yi Sun-sin immediately solves the problem in concrete reality. He understood dreams as valuable messages from the superior entity, for example, the Confucian Heaven (天) or Heaven's Decree (天命). Furthermore, the 'Heaven' presumably arranged for him the way to the national hero and imposed necessary trials upon him. Both his persecutors and advocates of him guided him in the way of a hero. Yi Sun-sin followed his destiny and completed the living myth of the hero. His mother, King Seon-jo, and prime minister Liu Seong Yong, all have contributed to embodying the myth of the hero. Yi Sun-sin died and became god, the divine healer of the nation.