• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.310-316
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• 2023

This study aims to predict uncertain future scenarios that may unfold in South Korea in the near future, utilizing the theory of extreme events(X-events). A group of 32 experts, consisting of government emergency planning officers, was selected as the focus group to achieve this objective. Using the Focus Group Interview (FGI) technique, opinions were gathered from this focus group regarding potential X-events that may occur within the advanced science and technology domains over the next 10 years. The analysis of these opinions revealed that government emergency planning officers regarded the "Obsolescence of current technology and systems," particularly in the context of cyber network paralysis as the most plausible X-event within science and technology. They also put forth challenging and intricate opinions, including the emergence of new weapon systems and ethical concerns associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Given that X-events are more likely to emerge in unanticipated areas rather than those that are widely predicted, the results obtained from this study carry significant importance. However, it's important to note that this study is grounded in a limited group of experts, highlighting the necessity for subsequent research involving a more extensive group of experts. This research seeks to stimulate studies on extreme events at a national level and contribute to the preparation for future X-event predictions and strategies for addressing them.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.191-195
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• 2023

An X-event is an event that is difficult to predict and unlikely to occur, but if it occurs, it has a very large ripple effect, such as loss of life, property, territory, and emotional turmoil. Extreme events are unlikely to occur, but they can happen someday, and if they do, they have a great impact on society as a whole, so they must be prepared to minimize the impact and impact. For this purpose, we collected opinions from low-level experts at the Korea Army Research Center for Future & Innovation and the Army College on extreme events that can trigger the near future (10 years) in the field of high-tech science and technology, which is currently developing rapidly after the 4th Industrial Revolution. The researchers intend to synthesize and analyze this data to derive implications and provide a response direction to alleviate the ultra-uncertainty of extreme events and provide a cornerstone for crisis management strategies for the occurrence of serial and simultaneous extreme events.

• 천문학회보
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.66.1-66.1
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• 2017

Nuclear reactions in explosive stars such as novae, X-ray bursts, and supernovae are responsible for producing many of the elements that make up our world. Exotic nuclei not normally found on earth can play an important role in these events due to the extreme conditions that occur in the explosion. A frontier area of research involves utilizing beams of radioactive nuclei to improve our understanding of these explosions and the implications on cosmic element production. At the future radioactive ion beam facility of Korea, RAON, we will measure astrophysically important reactions using exotic beams to probe the details of cosmic events. Details of RAON and possible day-1 experiments at the facility will be presented.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.186-190
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• 2023

There are unimaginable possibilities ahead of us. As a result, it is difficult to predict the future, but the prediction itself is not meaningless. This is because it can have the flexibility to cope with contingencies by predicting various possibilities. This study was conducted to explore extreme events (X-event) in the Korean population sector. To this end, in-depth interviews were conducted with experts from the Korea Army Research Center for Future & Innovation and the Army College, and based on this, significant research results were derived that population problems such as population decline and aging can affect various fields such as economy. With this study, we hope that discussions on extreme events (X-event) that can occur in our society will be further activated.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.391-395
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• 2023

우리 앞에는 상상할 수 없이 많은 가능성이 놓여있다. 이로 인해, 미래예측이 어렵지만 예측 자체가 무의미한것은 아니다. 다양한 가능성들을 예측함으로써 우발상황에 대처할 수 있는 유연성을 가질 수 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 한국의 인구 분야에 대한 극단적 사건(X-events)을 탐색하기 위해 진행되었다. 이를 위해, 정부 및 공공 부문의 비상계획관 32명을 대상으로 심층 인터뷰를 실시했고, 이를 토대로 인구 감소, 고령화 등의 인구 문제가 경제, 국방등의 다양한 분야에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 유의미한 연구결과를 도출했다. 본 연구를 계기로 우리 사회에 일어날 수 있는 극단적 사건에 대한 논의와 토의가 더욱 활성화되길 기대한다.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2004년도 한국우주과학회보 제13권1호
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• pp.38-38
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• 2004

In this talk, we present a good example of extreme solar and geomagnetic activities from October to November, 2003. These activities are characterized by very large sunspot groups, X-class solar flares, strong particle events, and huge geomagnetic storms. We discuss ground-based and space-based data in terms of space weather scales. We applied the CME propagation models to these events in order to predict the arrivals of heliospheric disturbances. (omitted)

• 천문학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.433-438
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• 2004

Clusters of galaxies generally form by the gravitational merger of smaller clusters and groups. Major cluster mergers are the most energetic events in the Universe since the Big Bang. The basic properties of cluster mergers and their effects are discussed. Mergers drive shocks into the intracluster gas, and these shocks heat the intracluster gas. As a result of the impulsive heating and compression associated with mergers, there is a large transient increase in the X-ray luminosities and temperatures of merging clusters. These merger boost can affect X-ray surveys of clusters and their cosmological interpretation. Similar boosts occur in the strong lensing cross-sections and Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect in merging clusters. Merger shock and turbulence associated with mergers should also (re)accelerate nonthermal relativistic particles. As a result of particle acceleration in shocks and turbulent acceleration following mergers, clusters of galaxies should contain very large populations of relativistic electrons and ions. Observations and models for the radio, extreme ultraviolet, hard X-ray, and gamma-ray emission from nonthermal particles accelerated in these shocks will also be described. Gamma-ray observations with GLAST seem particularly promising.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• 제10권sup3호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2016

This numerical study investigated the effects of different reinforcing details in beam-column joints on the blast resistance of the joints. Due to increasing manmade and/or natural high rate accidents such as impacts and blasts, the resistance of critical civil and military infrastructure or buildings should be sufficiently obtained under those high rate catastrophic loads. The beam-column joint in buildings is one of critical parts influencing on the resistance of those buildings under extreme events such as earthquakes, impacts and blasts. Thus, the details of reinforcements in the joints should be well designed for enhancing the resistance of the joints under the events. Parameters numerically investigated in this study include diagonal, flexural, and shear reinforcing steel bars. The failure mechanism of the joints could be controlled by the level of tensile stress of reinforcing steel bars. Among various reinforcing details in the joints, diagonal reinforcement in the joints was found to be most effective for enhancing the resistance under blast loads. In addition, shear reinforcements also produced favourable effects on the blast resistance of beam-column joints.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.207-207
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• 2023

데이터 기반 강수 예측 모델은 극한 강수 이벤트의 크기를 과소 추정하는 경향이 있다. 이는 훈련 데이터에 극한 강수 이벤트보다 일반적인 강수 이벤트가 많이 포함되어 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 이러한 딥러닝의 데이터 불균형 문제를 해소하고자 모델을 학습시킬 때 격자별 극한 강수에 더 큰 가중치를 주어 극한 강수 예측의 정확성을 높이는 방법을 제안한다. 딥러닝 모델 중 공간-시간 필드를 정확하게 예측할 수 있는 ConvLSTM 기반 강수 예측 모델을 활용하여 레이더 강수량을 예측하였다. 먼저, 훈련 기간 동안의 강수 이벤트의 누적 분포 함수 CDF(Cummulative distribution funcion)을 그린 후 극한 강수 이벤트와 일반적인 강수 이벤트의 분포를 확인하였다. 그다음, 적은 분포를 가진 극한 강수 이벤트의 더 큰 가중치를 두어 모델을 학습시켰다. 이 모델은 대한민국 중부 지역 (200km x 200km)의 5km-10분 해상도 레이더-계량기 복합 강수 필드에 대해 2009-2014년 기간 동안 훈련 되었고 2015-2016년 동안 모델의 훈련을 검증 하였고, 2017-2018년 동안 테스트 되었다. 다양한 가중치 함수를 기반으로 훈련 시킨 결과 최적화 가중치 함수 모델의 평균 NSE는 0.6 평균 RMSE는 0.00015 그리고 극한 강수 이벤트만 따로 추출한 평균 MAE는 6이다. 결과적으로 제안된 모델은 기존 방법에 비해 예측 성능을 향상 시켰으며, 격자별 가중치를 두었을 경우 일반적인 강수 이벤트 뿐만 아니라 극한 강수 이벤트의 예측의 정확도를 향상시켰다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.315-328
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• 2004

본 연구에서는 2003년 10월과 11월에 발생한 강력한 태양활동과 우주환경의 변화에 대한 국내외 관측결과를 분석하였다. 이러한 태양활동은 거대한 흑점군, X급 이상의 강력한 플레어, 연이은 코로나물질 방출(Coronal Mass Ejections: CMEs) 및 프로톤 현상 등으로 특징지어 질 수 있다. 특히 이때 발생한 고속의 CME들은 지구 방향으로 진행하여 매우 강력한 지자기 폭풍을 일으켰다. 미국 해양대기청 우주환경예보센터에서 제시한 우주환경기준(Space Weather Scales)에 따라 국내외 관측 자료를 분석하고 위성 및 통신에 미치는 영향을 예측하였다. 또한 같은 기간동안 우리나라에서 관측된 전리층 총전자함유량(Total Electron Contents: TEC), 오로라, 전리층의 F2 임계주파수, 그리고 아리랑 위성 1호의 궤도자료를 분석함으로서 우주환경변화가 우리나라 상층대기, 위성궤도, 무선통신 등에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다.