• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.4
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• pp.37-48
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• 2018

The extreme 2017 spring drought affected a large portion of central and western South Korea, and was one of the most climatologically driest spring seasons over the 1961-2016 period of record. This drought was characterized by exceptionally low precipitation, with total precipitation from January to June being 50% lower than the mean normal precipitation (1981-2010) over most of western South Korea. In this study, for the quantitative drought impact analysis, the widely-used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the statistical drought frequency are compared with observed meteorological characteristics and anomalies. According to the drought frequency analysis of monthly cumulative precipitation during January and May in 2017, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheong-do, and Jeollanam-do areas showed more than drought frequency over 100 years. Gyeongsangnam-do area showed more than drought frequency over 200 years based on annual precipitation in 2017. The South Korean government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)) have been operating a government-level drought monitoring system since 2016. Results from this study can be used to improve the drought monitoring applications of future drought events, as well as drought planning and preparedness in South Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.585-596
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• 2013

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hybrid downscaling method combined Step-Wise Scaling (SWS) method with Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation data for climate change impact study on hydrology area. The SWS method is divided by 3 categories (extreme event, dry event and the others). The extreme events, wet-dry days and the others are corrected by using regression method, quantile mapping method, mean & variance scaling method. The application and evaluation of SWS method with 3 existing and popular statistical techniques (linear scaling method, quantile mapping method and weather generator method) were performed at the 61 weather stations. At the results, the accuracy of corrected simulation data by using SWS are higher than existing 3 statistical techniques. It is expected that the usability of SWS method will grow up on climate change study when the use of RCM simulation data are increasing.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.643-653
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• 2013

The most important procedure in frequency analysis is to determine the appropriate probability distribution and to estimate quantiles for a given return period. To perform the frequency analysis, the goodness-of-fit tests should be carried out for judging fitness between obtained data from empirical probability distribution and assumed probability distribution. The previous goodness-of-fit could not consider enough extreme events from the recent climate change. In this study, the critical values of the modified Anderson-Darling test statistics were derived for 3-parameter Weibull distribution and power test was performed to evaluate the performance of the suggested test. Finally, this method was applied to 50 sites in South Korea. The result shows that the power of modified Anderson-Darling test has better than other existing goodness-of-fit tests. Thus, modified Anderson-Darling test will be able to act as a reference of goodness-of-fit test for 3-parameter Weibull model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.645-654
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• 2018

Extreme rainfall events caused severe damage to human life and property due to the inundation in major urban areas. In particular, the increase in the intensity of rainfall due to climate change causes changes in the design flood discharge. As a result, it causes uncertainty in the design criteria of hydraulic structures. However, quantitative analysis results have not been provided due to the limitations of climate scenarios and the uncertainty in climate changes. Therefore, this research chose Bulgwangcheon basin as the target basin to analysis the discharge considering climate change. As the result, it is necessary to strengthen design standards since the amount of discharge increased by 14.2% even in the near future.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.103-115
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• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.3
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• pp.1-14
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• 2019

North Korea has frequently suffered from extreme agricultural crop droughts, which have led to food shortages, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The increasing frequency of extreme droughts, due to global warming and climate change, has increased the importance of enhancing the national capacity for drought management. Historically, a meteorological drought index based on data collected from weather stations has been widely used. But it has limitations in terms of the distribution of weather stations and the spatial pattern of drought impacts. Satellite-based data can be obtained with the same accuracy and at regular intervals, and is useful for long-term change analysis and environmental monitoring and wide area access in time and space. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), a satellite-based drought index using the ratio of potential and actual evaporation, is being used to detect drought response as a index of the droughts occurring rapidly over short periods of time. It is more accurate and provides faster analysis of drought conditions compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In this study, we analyze drought events during 2015-2017 in North Korea using the ESI satellite-based drought index to determine drought response by comparing with it with the SPI and SPEI drought indices.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.13-20
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to analyze the fuzzy pattern that is reflected on the inside of the value evaluator in measuring the economic value of architectural aesthetic using the fuzzy-contingent valuation method. The main results of analyzing the relationship between architectural aesthetic and fuzzy patterns by typing 307 fuzzy patterns collected from visitors at Dongdaemun Design Plaza are as follows: First, low levels of architectural aesthetic can be a primary cause of extreme refusal of payment. However, it was confirmed that the extreme refusal of payment could partially involve mentality of free-ride on public goods or mentality that would not give value to past events that are not future. Second, if the architectural aesthetic score is 77.5, the most perfect form of fuzzy pattern is formed. It is confirmed that the fuzzy form, which is the standard in the relationship between architectural aesthetic and money value, is made at 77.5 points. This means that it is most efficient to have 77.5 points of architectural aesthetic to secure balanced data by membership in the study of architectural aesthetic value measurement through fuzzy pattern. Third, according to the architectural aesthetic score, respondents can be interpreted as follows: no monetary willingness arises before or after 52.4, starts to respond to the amount before and after 65.6, severe conflict over payments around 70.6~71.7, stronger willingness to pay around 77.6, want to pay for sure around 80.0.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.69-75
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• 2023

Purpose: The risk of disaster from extreme weather events is increasing due to the increase in occurrence and the strength of heavy rains and storms from continued climate change. To reduce these risks, emergency weather information customized for the characteristics of the information users and related circumstances should be provided. Method: A first-stage emergency weather information delivery system has been developed to provide weather information to the disaster-risk area residents and the disaster response personnel. Novel methods to apply artificial intelligence to identify emergencies have been studied. The relationship between special weather reports from meteorological administration and disaster-related news articles has been analyzed to identify the significance of a pilot study using text analytic artificial intelligence. Result: The basis to identify the significance of the relations between disaster-related articles and special weather reports has been established and the possibility of the development of a real-world applicable system based on a broader analysis of data has been suggested. Conclusion: Through direct alert delivery of weather emergency alerts, a weather emergency alert system is expected to reduce the risk of damage from extreme weather situations.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.178-178
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• 2023

Drought and flooding have historically coexisted in Korea, occurring at different times and with varying cycles and trends. The drought indicators measured were (PDSI), (SPI), and (SPEI) in order to statistically analyze the annual or periodic drought occurrence and objectively evaluate statistical characteristics such as the periodicity, tendency, and frequency of occurrence of droughts in the Doam watershed. To compute potential evapotranspiration (PET), both Thornthwaite (Thor) and Penman-Monteith (PM) parameterizations were considered, and the differences between the two PET estimators were analyzed. Hence, SPIs 3 and SPIs 6 revealed a tendency to worsen drought in the spring and winter and a tendency to alleviate drought in the summer in the study area. The seasonal variability trend did not occur in the SPIs 12 and PDSI, as it did in the drought index over a short period. As a result of the drought trend study, the drought from winter to spring gets more severe, in addition to the duration of the drought, although the periodicity of the recurrence of the drought ranged from 3 years to 6 years at the longest, indicating that SPIs 3 showed a brief time of around 1 year. SPIs 6 and SPIs 12 had a term of 4 to 6 years, and PDSI had a period of roughly 6 years. Based on the indicators of the PDSI, SPI, and SPEI, the drought severity increases under climate change conditions with the decrease in precipitation and increased water demand as a consequence of the temperature increase. Therefore, our findings show that national and practical measures are needed for both winter and spring droughts, which happen every year, as well as large-scale and extreme droughts, which happen every six years.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.307-320
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• 2021

Udo Rhodolith Beach is a small-scale, mixed sand-and-gravel beach embayed on the N-S trending rocky coast of Udo, Jeju Island, South Korea. This study analyzes the short-term topographic changes of the beach during the extreme storm conditions of four typhoons from 2016 to 2020: Chaba (2016), Soulik (2018), Lingling (2019), and Maysak (2020). The analysis uses the topographic data of terrestrial LiDAR scanning and drone photogrammetry, aided by weather and oceanographic datasets of wind, wave, current and tide. The analysis suggests two contrasting features of alongshore topographic change depending on the typhoon pathway, although the intensity and duration of the storm conditions differed in each case. During the Soulik and Lingling events, which moved northward following the western sea of the Jeju Island, the northern part of the beach accreted while the southern part eroded. In contrast, the Chaba and Maysak events passed over the eastern sea of Jeju Island. The central part of the beach was then significantly eroded while sediments accumulated mainly at the northern and southern ends of the beach. Based on the wave and current measurements in the nearshore zone and computer simulations of the wave field, it was inferred that the observed topographic change of the beach after the storm events is related to the directions of the wind-driven current and wave propagation in the nearshore zone. The dominant direction of water movement was southeastward and northeastward when the typhoon pathway lay to the east or west of Jeju Island, respectively. As these enhanced waves and currents approached obliquely to the N-S trending coastline, the beach sediments were reworked and transported southward or northward mainly by longshore currents, which likely acts as a major control mechanism regarding alongshore topographic change with respect to Udo Rhodolith Beach. In contrast to the topographic change, the subaerial volume of the beach overall increased after all storms except for Maysak. The volume increase was attributed to the enhanced transport of onshore sediment under the combined effect of storm-induced long periodic waves and a strong residual component of the near-bottom current. In the Maysak event, the raised sea level during the spring tide probably enhanced the backshore erosion by storm waves, eventually causing sediment loss to the inland area.