• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제16권4호
• /
• pp.647-658
• /
• 2009

It is already known from the previous study that flood seems to have heavier tail. Therefore, to make prediction of future extreme label, some agreement of tail behavior of extreme data is highly required. The LH-moments estimation method, the generalized form of L-moments is an useful method of characterizing the upper part of the distribution. LH-moments are based on linear combination of higher order statistics. In this study, we have formulated LH-moments of five distributions useful in hydrology such as, two types of three parameter kappa distributions, beta-${\kappa}$ distribution, beta-p distribution and a generalized Gumbel distribution. Using LH-moments reduces the undue influences that small sample may have on the estimation of large return period events.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2007년도 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.1441-1444
• /
• 2007

It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of hydrological extreme events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methodologies are not devised to account for nonstationarity that arises due to variation in exogenous factors of the causal structure. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to consider the exogenous factors that can influence on the frequency of extreme floods. The sea surface temperatures, predicted GCM precipitation, climate indices and snow pack are considered as potential predictors of flood risk. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The predictors are compared in terms of the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters associated with estimated flood frequency distributions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제56권5호
• /
• pp.1603-1618
• /
• 2024

Emergency operation plans are indispensable elements for effective process safety management especially when unanticipated events occur under extreme situations. In the paper, a synthesis framework is proposed for the integration success path planning and performance analysis. Within the synthesis framework, success path planning is implemented through flow-directed signal tracing, renaming and reconstruction from a complete collection of Minimal Path Sets (MPSs) that are obtained using graph traversal search on GO-FLOW model diagram. The performance of success paths is then evaluated and prioritized according to the task complexity and probability calculation of MPSs for optimum action plans identification. Finally, an Auxiliary Feed Water System of Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR-AFWS) is taken as an example system to demonstrate the flow-directed MPSs search method for success path planning and performance analysis. It is concluded that the synthesis framework is capable of providing procedural guidance for emergency response and safety management with optimal success path planning under extreme situations.

• 한국제4기학회지
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.161-161
• /
• 2003

During the last century, most scientific questions related to climate change were focused on the evidence of anthropogenic global warming (IPCC, 2001). There are robust evidences of warming and also human-induced climate change. We now understand the global, mean change a little bit better; however, the uncertainties for regional climate change still remains large. The purpose of this study is to understand the past climate change over Korea based on the observational data and to project future regional climate change over East Asia using ECHAM4/HOPE model and MM5 for downscaling. There are significant evidences on regional climate change in Korea, from several variables. The mean annual temperature over Korea has increased about 1.5∼$1.7^{\circ}C$ during the 20th century, including urbanization effect in large cities which can account for 20-30% of warming in the second half of the 20th century. Cold extreme temperature events occurred less frequently especially in the late 20th century, while hot extreme temperature events were more common than earlier in the century. The seasonal and annual precipitation was analyzed to examine long-term trend on precipitation intensity and extreme events. The number of rainy days shows a significant negative trend, which is more evident in summer and fall. Annual precipitation amount tends to increase slightly during the same period. This suggests an increase of precipitation intensity in this area. These changes may influence on growing seasons, floods and droughts, diseases and insects, marketing of seasonal products, energy consumption, and socio-economic sectors. The Korean Peninsular is located at the eastern coast of the largest continent on the earth withmeso-scale mountainous complex topography and itspopulation density is very high. And most people want to hear what will happen in their back yards. It is necessary to produce climate change scenario to fit forhigh-resolution (in meteorological sense, but low-resolution in socio-economic sense) impact assessment. We produced one hundred-year, high-resolution (∼27 km), regional climate change scenario with MM5 and recognized some obstacles to be used in application. The boundary conditions were provided from the 240-year simulation using the ECHAM4/HOPE-G model with SRES A2 scenario. Both observation and simulation data will compose past and future regional climate change scenario over Korea.

• 감성과학
• /
• 제17권3호
• /
• pp.83-94
• /
• 2014

본 연구는 개인의 사회적 배척 경험과 소속 욕구 수준이 사회적 사건에 대한 정서 예측 및 정서 예측 오류의 크기에 미치는 영향을 검증하기 위하여 실시되었다. 참가자들은 예비 연구를 통해 구성된 8가지 종류의 사회적 사건과 비사회적 사건에 대해 각 사건이 실제로 벌어진다면 얼마나 기쁠지 혹은 괴로울지에 대해 응답하였다. 연구 1에서는 사회적 배척 경험이 많을수록 또는 소속 욕구가 높을수록 비사회적 사건에 비해 사회적 사건이 가지고 올 괴로움을 더욱 부정적으로 예측하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 연구 2에 의하면, 사회적 배척 경험이 많거나 소속 욕구가 높다고 해서 실제로 사회적 부정적 사건을 경험했을 때 더 괴로운 것은 아니라는 것이 밝혀졌다. 본 연구의 결과는 사회적 배척 경험이 많거나 소속 욕구가 높은 개인의 사회적 사건에 대한 민감한 정서 예측이 그들이 사회적 사건으로부터 경험하는 실질적 괴로움이 더 크기 때문이 아니라 사회적 사건으로 인해 겪게 될 미래 정서를 과대 추정하기 때문이라는 것을 시사한다. 본 연구 결과의 함의와 제한점, 추후 연구에 대한 논의가 제시되었다.

• 한국심리학회지 : 문화 및 사회문제
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.365-383
• /
• 2018

본 연구에서는 높은 수준의 PTSD 증상을 유발하는 사건을 탐색하기 위해 외상사건을 DSM-IV-TR의 진단기준을 충족시키는 '진단기준사건'과 '생활스트레스 사건'으로 구분하고, 가장 고통스러운 사건 대비 PTSD 고위험군의 비율인 PTSD의 조건비율(conditional probability)을 확인하였다. 이를 위해 전국의 인구센서스 기준에 따라 성별 및 연령비율을 고려하여 표집한 성인 1,000명을 대상으로 외상사건을 조사하였고, 998명의 자료를 분석하였다. 진단기준사건을 살펴보면, '16세 이전의 성추행', '기타사고 목격', '16세 이전의 성폭행', '16세 이전의 가정폭력 목격', '재난', '교통사고 겪음', '교통사고 목격', '기타사고 겪음'인 것으로 나타났으며, 생활스트레스 사건은 '법적 구속 또는 수감(본인 및 가족)', '부모의 별거나 이혼', '심각한 스트레스를 야기하는 실패나 절망', '가족과의 극심한 갈등 또는 잦은 다툼'인 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 인구사회학적 특성 중 연령, 혼인상태, 종교유무가 PTSD 증상수준에 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 주요 연구결과를 토대로 논의 및 시사점을 제시하였다.

• 문화기술의 융합
• /
• 제9권5호
• /
• pp.391-395
• /
• 2023

우리 앞에는 상상할 수 없이 많은 가능성이 놓여있다. 이로 인해, 미래예측이 어렵지만 예측 자체가 무의미한것은 아니다. 다양한 가능성들을 예측함으로써 우발상황에 대처할 수 있는 유연성을 가질 수 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 한국의 인구 분야에 대한 극단적 사건(X-events)을 탐색하기 위해 진행되었다. 이를 위해, 정부 및 공공 부문의 비상계획관 32명을 대상으로 심층 인터뷰를 실시했고, 이를 토대로 인구 감소, 고령화 등의 인구 문제가 경제, 국방등의 다양한 분야에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 유의미한 연구결과를 도출했다. 본 연구를 계기로 우리 사회에 일어날 수 있는 극단적 사건에 대한 논의와 토의가 더욱 활성화되길 기대한다.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
• /
• 제23권3호
• /
• pp.117-129
• /
• 2018

This study examines the impact of severe weather on lean supply chains. First, this paper reviewed the literature on the disruptions and damages that severe weather events cause on supply chain. Then, several recent examples of lean supply chain disruptions due to severe weather were discussed. The results of the study indicated that the frequency of weather related disasters is increasing and extreme weather events will increase potential risks to supply chains. First, building organizational resilience will help firms look beyond efficiency and profits in managing lean supply chains. Second, the concept of sole sourcing may need rethinking to maintain a supply chain that is lean and resilient. Third, organizations must plan ahead for supply chains in unpredictable weather. Fifth, communication is a key for anticipating and avoiding the impact of severe weather. This study proposes of a set of strategies, both theoretical and practical, that business firms should develop to effectively prevent and respond to severe weather related disruptions in lean supply chains.

• 한국물환경학회지
• /
• 제23권6호
• /
• pp.829-836
• /
• 2007

For the purpose of managing non-point sources, water quality control basins (WQCBs) are often designed to capture rainfall events smaller than extreme events. The design rainfall statistics and runoff capture rates for sizing a WQCB should be derived from the local long-term continuous rainfall record. In this study, the 31-year continuous rainfall data recorded in Busan is analyzed to derive the synthesized runoff capture curve incorporated with SCS curve number.

• 한국해안해양공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국해안해양공학회 1996년도 정기학술강연회 발표논문 초록집
• /
• pp.19-22
• /
• 1996

Extreme sea statistics and combinations of environmental events or response for structures are very important problem in performance evaluation and design of coastal and Offshore structures. A probabilistic method is developed that leads to the combination of Typhoon (Hurricane) or winter storm induces winds, waves, currents and surge for a generic site. The traditional recommendation for the fixed structures is a combination of the 100 years maximum wave height with the 100 years wind and current. (omitted)