• 제목/요약/키워드: External Shocks

검색결과 63건 처리시간 0.026초

Spiral Structure and Mass Inflows in Barred-Spiral Galaxies

  • Kim, Yonghwi;Kim, Woong-Tae
    • 천문학회보
    • /
    • 제38권2호
    • /
    • pp.39.1-39.1
    • /
    • 2013
  • We use high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations to study nonlinear gas responses to imposed non-axisymmetric stellar potentials in barred-spiral galaxies. The gas is assumed to be infinitesimally thin, isothermal, and unmagnetized. We consider various spiral-arm models with differing strength and pattern speed, while fixing the bar parameters. We find that the extent and shapes of spiral shocks as well as the related mass drift depend rather sensitively on the pattern speed. In models where the arm pattern is rotating more slowly than the bar, the gaseous arms extend from the bar ends all the way to the outer boundary, with a pitch angle slightly smaller than that of the stellar counterpart. The arms drive mass inflows at a rate of ${\sim}0.5-2.5M{\odot}/yr$ to the bar region to which the shock dissipation, external torque, and self-gravitational torque contribute about 50%, 40%, and 10%, respectively. About 85% of the inflowing mass is added to bar substructures such as an inner ring, dust lanes, and a nuclear ring. while the remaining 15% encircles the bar region. On the other hand, models where the arms corotate with the bar exhibit mass outflows, rather than inflows, over most of the arm region. In these models, spiral shocks are much more tightly wound than the stellar arms and cease to exist in the region where $M{\bot}/sinp*{\geq}25-40$, where $M{\bot}$ denotes the Mach number of a rotating gas perpendicular to the arms with pitch angle p*. We demonstrate that the distributions of line-of-sight velocities and densities can be a useful diagnostic tool to distinguish if the arms and bar corotate or not.

  • PDF

기계학습기법에 기반한 국제 유가 예측 모델 (Oil Price Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Techniques)

  • 박강희;;신현정
    • 대한산업공학회지
    • /
    • 제37권1호
    • /
    • pp.64-73
    • /
    • 2011
  • Oil price prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the government and the related industries. When employing the time series techniques for prediction, however, it becomes difficult and challenging since the behavior of the series of oil prices is dominated by quantitatively unexplained irregular external factors, e.g., supply- or demand-side shocks, political conflicts specific to events in the Middle East, and direct or indirect influences from other global economical indices, etc. Identifying and quantifying the relationship between oil price and those external factors may provide more relevant prediction than attempting to unclose the underlying structure of the series itself. Technically, this implies the prediction is to be based on the vectoral data on the degrees of the relationship rather than the series data. This paper proposes a novel method for time series prediction of using Semi-Supervised Learning that was originally designed only for the vector types of data. First, several time series of oil prices and other economical indices are transformed into the multiple dimensional vectors by the various types of technical indicators and the diverse combination of the indicator-specific hyper-parameters. Then, to avoid the curse of dimensionality and redundancy among the dimensions, the wellknown feature extraction techniques, PCA and NLPCA, are employed. With the extracted features, a timepointspecific similarity matrix of oil prices and other economical indices is built and finally, Semi-Supervised Learning generates one-timepoint-ahead prediction. The series of crude oil prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was used to verify the proposed method, and the experiments showed promising results : 0.86 of the average AUC.

원통형 이종 접합 소재의 $SiO_2/Ag$스퍼터 증착과 온도 변화에 따른 기계적 특성에 관한 연구 (The Study on the Improvement of Mechanical Performance due to Change in Temperature and Sputtering by $SiO_2/Ag$ Material of Bonded Dissimilar Materials with Cylindrical Shape)

  • 이승현;최성대;이종형
    • 한국기계가공학회지
    • /
    • 제11권3호
    • /
    • pp.138-145
    • /
    • 2012
  • The material used in this study is dielectric and ferrite. Because of the unique characteristics of the material, it is easily exposed to external shocks and pressure, which cause damage to the product. However, after being processed under high-temperature environment repeatedly, the mechanical strength of the product is greatly increased due to the change of the electrical properties. In this paper, dielectric and bonded ferrite material was tested for the material properties. The equipment for this experiment was produced and tested to allow Cylindrical and Three-dimensional geometry of the product for the vacuum deposition. For Cylindrical shape of the product, in order to obtain the equivalent film thickness, the device is constructed in a vacuum chamber which gives arbitrary revolving and rotating capability. The electrical performance of the product is obtained through this process as well. However, as mentioned above, with repeating processes under high temperature and exposure to external environment, the product is easy to be broken. This experiment has enabled us to find out a stable condition to apply the communication of the RF high frequency to each of the core elements, such as Ferrite and Dielectric which is then used for the mechanical strength of the Raw material, hetero-junction material, Hetero-junction Ag Coating material and hetero-junction Ag Coating SiO2 Coating material respectively.

기업의 지식경영활동이 재무적 성과에 미치는 영향: 기업 회복역량의 매개효과를 중심으로 (Effects of Knowledge Management Activities on Financial Performance: Focusing on the Mediating Effects of Enterprise-level Resilience)

  • 강연실;조부연
    • 지식경영연구
    • /
    • 제22권1호
    • /
    • pp.139-154
    • /
    • 2021
  • 기업 경영에 있어 환경적 위험이 증대되면서, 외부 충격 이후에 빠르게 일상 운영수준으로 복귀하는 능력인 회복역량에 대한 관심이 증대되고 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 기업의 회복역량에 대한 개념적 모형을 제시하고, 이를 실증적으로 검증하고자 한다. 기존 연구를 기반으로 회복역량의 하위 구성개념을 강건성, 대체성, 자원동원성 및 신속성으로 구분하였으며, 선행요인으로 기업의 지식경영활동을 제시하였다. 회복역량을 매개변인으로 고려하면서, 기업의 성과에 영향을 미칠 것으로 가정하였다. 지식경영활동, 회복역량 및 성과로 이어지는 구조모형을 검증하기 위하여, 체계적으로 기업 대상 설문을 설계하여 조사를 시행하였다. 지식경영활동 외에 개별 기업의 회복역량을 높일 수 있는 독립변수들에 대한 탐색적 연구가 필요함과 성과에 대한 세분화된 검증이 필요함을 향후 연구방향으로 제시하였다.

COVID-19 전후 도시철도 승차인원 시계열 군집분석을 통한 역세권 군집별 대응방안 고찰 (A Study on the Response Plan by Station Area Cluster through Time Series Analysis of Urban Rail Riders Before and After COVID-19)

  • 리청시;정헌영
    • 대한토목학회논문집
    • /
    • 제43권3호
    • /
    • pp.363-370
    • /
    • 2023
  • COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) 확산으로 2020년 초부터 도시철도 등 대중교통수단의 이용량이 크게 변동하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 COVID-19 이전과 COVID-19 확산 이후, 3년 동안 도시철도 역별 일별 시계열 자료를 수집하여 DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) 거리법을 통해 시계열 군집분석 유사도를 평가하여 군집 별 회귀 중앙치를 도출하고, COVID-19 등 여러 외부 사건이 이용객 수의 변동에 미치는 영향을 시계열 충격 탐지 함수(Outlier Detection)로 진단하였다. 또한 도시철도 역의 군집 별 이용 특성을 분석하고 또한 외부 충격에 따른 승객량의 변동을 파악하였다. 향후 COVID-19 재확산 시 이용량의 유지와 회복에 대한 방안을 검토하는 데 목적을 두었다.

트랙킹 액추에이터의 진동 억제를 위한 트랙킹 Gain-up 제어기 설계 (Design of a Tracking Gain-up Controller for the Vibration Suppression of Tracking Actuator)

  • 이문노;진경복
    • 한국소음진동공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.356-364
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper presents a tracking gain-up controller design method to control effectively the vibration of tracking actuator caused by external shocks and remaining velocity after seek control. A pole placement constraint is considered to assure a desired transient response against the vibration of tracking actuator. A loop gain-up constraint is introduced to hold the tracking gain-up loop gain and control bandwidth within allowable bounds. The pole placement constraint is expressed by a matrix inequality and the loop gain-up constraint is considered as an objective function so that genetic algorithm can be applied. Finally, a tracking gain-up controller is obtained by integrating a genetic algorithm with LMI design approach. The proposed tracking gain-up controller design method is applied to the track-following system of a DVD recording device and its effectiveness is evaluated through the experimental results.

Information Cascade and Share Market Volatility: A Chinese Perspective

  • Hong, Hui
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제3권4호
    • /
    • pp.17-24
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to understand the underlying dynamics for the share market bubbles in China during the most recent decade. By using the behavioral finance theory and the Shanghai Composite index prices during the periods from 2005 to 2008 and from 2014 to 2015 as the study samples, we find that the large volatilities in the Chinese share market are closely related to information blockage, which impedes share prices to timely respond to economic conditions as well as external shocks and increases (decreases) the demand of shares when the supply is difficult to adjust. Although the Chinese government has introduced a series of programs designed to increase more reliable information to the public, the share market still tends to confront issues of information asymmetry. The potential reason is that the reforms did not change the long-stand situation in China, where individuals or groups related to government bureaucracy who play a dominant role in the society are given priority to gain access and obtain information that benefits. By identifying the main reasons for the large volatilities in the market, policy makers are given advice as to which areas they may need to focus on to improve future market performance.

An Exploration of Dynamical Relationships between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Korea

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Brahmasrene, Tantatape
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제5권3호
    • /
    • pp.7-17
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.

Lessons from Korean Innovation Model for ASEAN Countries Towards a Knowledge Economy

  • Ocon, Joey D.;Phihusut, Doungkamon;del Rosario, Julie Anne D.;Tuan, Trinh Ngoc;Lee, Jaeyoung
    • STI Policy Review
    • /
    • 제4권2호
    • /
    • pp.19-40
    • /
    • 2013
  • The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) achieved relatively rapid economic growth over the past decade. Sustainable growth among member states, however, is put into question due to macroeconomic challenges, political risk, and vulnerability to external shocks. Developed countries, in contrast, have turned into less labor-intensive technologies to further expand their economies. In this paper, we review the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies and statuses of the scientific and technological capabilities of the ASEAN member countries. Empirical results based on STI indicators (R&D spending, publications, patents, and knowledge economy indices) reveal considerable variation between the science and technology (S&T) competence and effectiveness of STI policies of ASEAN members. We have categorized nations into clusters according their situations in their S&T productivity. Under the Korean Innovation Model, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei are classified as being in the institutional-building stage, while Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the catch up stage, and Singapore in the post-catch up stage. Finally, policy prescriptions on how to enhance the S&T capabilities of the developing ASEAN countries, based on the South Korea development experience, are presented.

해양수산부 산하기관의 생산성 추정에 관한 연구 (The Estimation of The Productivities of Institutions under Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries)

  • 김태현;김종천;박철형
    • 수산해양교육연구
    • /
    • 제28권1호
    • /
    • pp.186-197
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study applied the parametric bootstrapping method to analyze whether there was a change in the production efficiency of institutions under Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries. This study used input and output oriented productivity simultaneously. In particular, the productivity was estimated through 95% confidence interval derived by 2000 times re-sampling process. The results of the study showed us a reduction in overall total factor productivity by 24% between 2009 and 2013, and 7% of decreases in productivity annually. A recent conditions of an external economic shocks brought a 28% downward shift of production function. In this study, public institutions were divided into three types, which were public, quasi-government, and other public institutions. There were approximately 13%, 1%, and 5% decreases in total factor productivity per each. In analyzing the productivity each of 14 institutions, approximately DMU4 and DMU6 had 4%, and 5% increases in productivity per each. While DMU14 showed us no changes in productivity, all of the other 10 DMUs were estimated the decreases in productivities.