• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exponential smoothing forecasting model

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A Study on the Feedforward Control Algorithm for Dynamic Positioning System Using Ship Motion Prediction (선체운동 예측을 이용한 Dynamic Positioning System의 피드포워드 제어 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Soon-Seok;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Hee-Su;Jeon, Ma-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2016
  • In the present study we verified performance of feed-forward control algorithm using short term prediction of ship motion information by taking advantage of developed numerical simulation model of FPSO motion. Up until now, various studies have been conducted about thrust control and allocation for dynamic positioning systems maintaining positions of ships or marine structures in diverse sea environmental conditions. In the existing studies, however, the dynamic positioning systems consist of only feedback control gains using a motion of vessel derived from environmental loads such as current, wind and wave. This study addresses dynamic positioning systems which have feedforward control gain derived from forecasted value of a motion of vessel occurred by current, wind and wave force. In this study, the future motion of vessel is forecasted via Brown's Exponential Smoothing after calculating the vessel motion via a selected mathematical model, and the control force for maintaining the position and heading angle of a vessel is decided by the feedback controller and the feedforward controller using PID theory and forecasted vessel motion respectively. For the allocation of thrusts, the Lagrange Multiplier Method is exploited. By constructing a simulation code for a dynamic positioning system of FPSO, the performance of feedforward control system which has feedback controller and feedforward controller was assessed. According to the result of this study, in case of using feedforward control system, it shows smaller maximum thrust power than using conventional feedback control system.

A Study on Forecasting Industrial Land Considering Leading Economic Variable Using ARIMA-X (선행경제변수를 고려한 산업용지 수요예측 방법 연구)

  • Byun, Tae-Geun;Jang, Cheol-Soon;Kim, Seok-Yun;Choi, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.214-223
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present a new industrial land demand prediction method that can consider external economic factors. The analysis model used ARIMA-X, which can consider exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are composed of macroeconomic variable, Business Survey Index, and Composite Economic Index variables to reflect the economic and industrial structure. And, among the exogenous variables, only variables that precede the supply of industrial land are used for prediction. Variables with precedence in the supply of industrial land were found to be import, private and government consumption expenditure, total capital formation, economic sentiment index, producer's shipment index, machinery for domestic demand and composite leading index. As a result of estimating the ARIMA-X model using these variables, the ARIMA-X(1,1,0) model including only the import was found to be statistically significant. The industrial land demand forecast predicted the industrial land from 2021 to 2030 by reflecting the scenario of change in import. As a result, the future demand for industrial land was predicted to increase by 1.91% annually to 1,030.79 km2. As a result of comparing these results with the existing exponential smoothing method, the results of this study were found to be more suitable than the existing models. It is expected to b available as a new industrial land forecasting model.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.