• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

'The worstest environment disaster', 'World's first biocide massacre', 'Home-based Sewol ferry disaster' are all phrases attached to the recent humidifier disinfectant disaster. In the spring of 2011, four of 8 pregnant women including 1 adult man passed away at a university hospital in Seoul due to breathing failure. Epidemiologic investigation conducted by the Korean CDC soon revealed the inhalation of humidifier disinfectant, which had been widely used in Korea during the winter, to be responsible for the disease. As well as lung fibrosis hardening of the lungs, other diseases including asthma, rhinitis, skin disease, liver disease, fetal disease or cancers have been researched for their relation with exposure to the products. By February 9, 2017, 5,342 cases had registered for health problems and 1,131 of them were already dead (20.8% mortality rate). Based on studies by government agencies and a telephone survey of the general population by Seoul National University and civic groups, around 20% of the general public of Korea has used these products. Since the market release of the first product by SK Chemical in 1994, over 7.1 million items from around 20 brands were sold up to 2011. Most of the products were manufactured by well-known large conglomerates such as SK, Lotte, Samsung, Shinsegye, LG, and GS, as well as some European companies including UK-based Reckitt Benckiser and TESCO, the German firm Henkel, the Danish firm KeTox, and an Irish company. Even though this disaster was unveiled in 2011 by the Korean government, the issue of the victims was neglected for over five years. In 2016, an unexpected but intensive investigation by prosecutors found that Reckitt Benckiser manipulated and concealed animal tests for its own brand and brought several university experts and company employees to court. The matter was an intense social issue in Korea from May to June with a surge in media coverage. The prosecutor's investigation and a nationwide boycott campaign organized by victims and environmental groups against Reckitt Benckiser, whose product had been used by more than 70% of victims, led to the producer's official apology and a compensation scheme. A legislative investigation organized after the April 2016 national election revealed the producers' faults and the government's responsibility, but failed to meet expectations. A special law for the victims passed the National Assembly in January 2017 and a punitive system together with a massive environmental epidemiology investigation are expected to be the only solutions for this tragedy. Sciences of medicine, toxicology and environmental health have provided decisive evidence so far, but for the remaining problems the perspectives of social sciences such as sociology and jurisprudence are highly necessary, similar to with the Minamata disease and Wonjin Rayon events. It may not be easy to follow this issue using unfamiliar terminology from medical and chemical science and the long, complicated history of the event. For these reasons the author has attempted to write this article in a question and answer format to render it easier to follow. The 17 questions are: Q1 What is humidifier disinfectant? Q2 What kind of health problems are caused by humidifier disinfectant? Q3 How many victims are there? Q4 What is the analysis of the 1,112 cases of death? Q5 What is the problem with the government's diagnostic criteria and the solution? Q6 Who made what brands? Q7 Has there been a recall? What is still on sale? Q8 Was safety not checked by any producers? Q9 What are the government's responsibilities? Q10 Is it true that these products were sold only in Korea? Q11 Why and how was it unveiled only in 2011 after 17 years of sales? Q12 What delayed the resolution of the victim issue? Q13 What is the background of the prosecutor's investigation in early 2016? Q14 Is it possible to report new victim cases without evidence of product purchase? Q15 What is happening with the victim issue? Q16 How does it compare with the cases of Minamata disease and Wonjin Rayon? Q17 Are there prevention measures and lessons?

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.339-348
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• 2003

Objective : To quantify the economic value of the Sirolimus fluting Stent ($CYPHER^{TM}$) in treating acute coronary heart disease (CMD), and to assist in determining an adequate level of reimbursement for $CYPHER^{TM}$ in Korea. Methods : A decision-analytical model, developed by the Belgium Health Economics Disease Management group, was used to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness of $CYPHER^{TM}$ versus conventional stenting. The time horizon was five years. The probabilities for clinical events at each node of the decision model were obtained from the results of large, randomized, controlled clinical trials. The initial care and follow-up direct medical costs were analyzed. The initial costs consisted of those for the initial procedure and hospitalization, The follow-vp costs included those for routine follow-up treatments, adverse reactions, revascularization and death. Defending on the perspective of the analysis, the costs were defined as insurance covered or total medical costs (=sum of insurance covered and uncovered medical costs). The cost data were obtained from the administrative data of 449 patients that received conventional stenting from five participating Korean hospitals during June 2002. Sensitivity analyses were peformed for discount rates of 3, 5 and 7%. Since the major clinical advantage of $CYPHER^{TM}$ over conventional stenting was the reduction in the revascularization rates, the economic value of $CYPHER^{TM}$, in relation to the direct medical costs of revascularization, were evaluated. If the incremental cost of $CYPHER^{TM}$ per revascularization avoided, compared to conventional stenting, was no higher than that of a revascularization itself, $CYPHER^{TM}$ would be considered as being cost-effective. Therefore, the maximum acceptable level for the reimbursement price of $CYPHER^{TM}$ making the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio equal to the cost of a revascularization was identified. Results : The average weighted initial insurance covered and total medical costs of conventional stenting were about 6,275,000 and 8,058,000 Won, respectively. The average weighted sum of the initial and 5-year follow-up insurance covered and total medical costs of conventional stenting were about 13,659,000 and 17,353,000 Won, respectively. The estimated maximum level of reimbursement price of $CYPHER^{TM}$ from the perspectives of the insurer and society were $4,126,897{\sim}4,325,161$ and $4,939,939{\sim}5,078,181$ Won, respectively. Conclusion : By evaluating the economic value of $CYPHER^{TM}$, as an alternative to conventional stenting, the results of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for determining the acceptable level of reimbursement for $CYPHER^{TM}$.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.19-37
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• 2013

From the perspective of labor welfare, forty-hour-a-week working system:(FWS) has been an important goal throughout world, and in fact, advanced countries implemented this a long time ago. However, there are differences in opinions concerning FWS; some people emphasizes the improvement in life quality, while others point out that this measure increases the cost of wages and has limited effectiveness. Thus, discussions about the success of FWS have emerged from diverse perspectives; One thing that should be made clear before debating FWS is that reducing laborers' working hours is already a global trend, and Korea, also intends to extend it. Therefore, in order to maximize the benefits resulting from the execution of the system and to identify measures that can be used to solve the problems related to FWS, it is necessary to consider actual laborers' use of leisure resources and whether they have increased or decreased as a result of FWS. It is also necessary to look at the differences in workers' leisure activity with and without the system. To evaluate and diagnose FWS's political effect from the perspective of laborers' leisure satisfaction and improvements in life quality, this study examines differences in leisure expenses, leisure hours, use of and demand for leisure resources such as leisure space, and types of leisure activity, according to the execution of FWS, This research is based on the "2012 Survey on National Leisure Activity" conducted by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism. In addition, through analysis of the differences in leisure satisfaction and happiness levels, the study intends to confirm the necessity of executing FWS and ensuring that the system is in use. The study results can be briefly summed up as followa:: First, regarding the general findings of the study, a significant result was shown in terms of the execution of FWS according to income level. The finding that the execution of FWS works differently according to the working environment or life quality reassures us of the common notion in society that working environment or life quality may differ in relation to social characteristics. The utility of weekday leisure hours did not indicate a statistically significant difference, but in terms of weekend leisure hours, laborers practicing FWS had an additional 30 minutes of leisure time than those who did not. Furthermore, regarding leisure expenses, laborers practicing FWS indicated more monthly average leisure expenses or expected leisure expenses. In relation to leisure activity, those working at a company executing FWS engaged in culture and art activities more frequently than those working at the companies that did not. On the other hand, those working at companies without FWS indicated more hobbies, amusement activities, rest, and other activities than those working at the companies with FWS. In terms of vacation experience, those working at companies with FWS had more vacation time than those working at companies without it; on average, they had longer vacations by 1.64 days. Regarding their leisure life satisfaction and happiness level, those working at companies with FWS indicated higher satisfaction and greater happiness than those working at companies without it. The findings mentioned above represent the preliminary results of this paper, and the remainder of the research will provide more detailed analysis results and suggestions corresponding to them.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.1-27
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• 2011

In an attempt to cope with widespread, dynamic, and accelerating changes in both internal and external business environments, companies often utilize information technologies such as SCM(Supply Chain Management). To date, SCM research has mainly focused on the effects of dynamic factors on SCM success and emphasized adoption strategies and critical success factors. Consequently, the effects of more static factors such as interdependency between SCM partners have been largely ignored. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the effects of both dynamic and static factors on SCM performance by controlling for information quality and partnership quality. The five factors examined in this study include innovative ness, mutual dependency, quality of information, partnership quality, and SCM performance. All factors were examined from the perspective of part suppliers, except the mutual dependency which was examined from two aspects: supplier's dependency on customer and customer's dependency on supplier. Data was collected through five hundred survey questionnaires distributed to the part supplier companies that have implemented SCM systems for at least one year. As a result, a total of 170 valid responses were obtained. A structural equation research model was fitted using SAS 9.1.3 and SMART-PLS 2.0. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, innovativeness positively affected SCM information quality. SCM partnership quality, and ultimately SCM performance. The path coefficient between innovativeness and information quality was 0.387, with a t-value of 3.528. Innovativeness also had a positively direct effect on partnership quality. The path coefficient was 0.351 with a t-value of 3.366. The total effect of innovativeness on partnership quality was significant, although its indirect effect on partnership quality by altering information quality was negligible. The total indirect effect of innovativeness on SCM performance by affecting information quality and partnership quality was significant with a p-value of 0.014. Innovativeness played an important role in determining SCM performance. Second, mutual dependency showed no significant effect on SCM information quality. This result contradicts the earlier assertion that the more dependent two companies are, the more accurate and timely the information they exchange ought to be. This study showed that this may not be the case; a partner may provide information of poor quality even when it is strongly dependent on the other. Mutual dependency showed significant effect on partnership quality. However, when the mutual dependency perceived by suppliers was divided into two parts, one being a supplier's dependency on its customer company and the other being a customer's dependency on the supplier, the latter showed a significant impact on the perceived SCM partnership quality. This result indicates that a customer company can hardly improve the partnership quality perceived by suppliers by making them more dependent. It improves only when the suppliers perceive that their partners, typically having more bargaining power, are more dependent on them. The overall effect of mutual dependency of any kind on SCM performance, however, was not significant. Although mutual dependency has been mentioned as an important static factor influencing almost every aspect of cooperation on a supply chain, its influences may not be as significant as it was initially perceived to be. Third, the correlation between information quality and partnership quality was 0.448 with a p-value of less than 0.001. Information quality had a path coefficient of 0.256 to partnership quality with a t-value of 2.940. The quality of information exchanged between partners may have an impact on their partnership quality. Fourth, information quality also had a significant impact on SCM performance with a path coefficient of 0.325 with a t-value of 3.611. In this study, SCM performance was divided into four categories: product quality, cost saving, service quality, and order fulfillment. Information quality has Significant impacts on product quality, cost saving and service quality, but not on order fulfillment. Fifth, partnership quality, as expected, had a significant impact on SCM performance. The path coefficient was 0.403 with a t-value of 3.539. Partnership quality, like information quality, had positive impacts on product quality, cost saving and service quality, but showed no impact on order fulfillment. It seemed that order fulfillment is the hardest category of performance that SCM can satisfy. One major limitation of this study is that it surveyed only the suppliers. To better understand the dual aspects of SCM, it is important to survey both suppliers and the assemblers, especially in pairs. This research, to our best knowledge, was the first attempt to study the level of dependency between the two groups by measuring the dual aspects of SCM and studying mutual dependency from the categories of suppliers and assemblers each.. In the future, a more comprehensive and precise measurement of SCM characteristics needs to be achieved by examining from both the supplier's and assembler's perspectives.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.36-48
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• 2015

To complete various types of finish works with higher quality in much less time, TACT, which was mostly used for high-rise buildings, has been adapted to meet the needs for systematic schedule management in construction sites. However, the effectiveness of adapting TACT has not been shown as expected due to the different perspectives on productivity from both general contractor and subcontractors based on unforeseen conditions according to the types of site. Furthermore, not enough theoretical backgrounds, empirical data, and systematic approaches to solve the fundamental problems caused by each participants' different views on productivity has produced obstacles for establishing effective solutions. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the possible main reasons for having different point of views regarding productivity among various participants of residential building sites using TACT based on literature review, site survey, and interviews. Also, case study was conducted to propose obtainable productivity (OP) regression equation and productivity achievement ratio (PAR) with reduction factors (RFs) and actual productivity (AP) data from an actual construction site. The proposed outcome may assist general contractors converting output management with PPC to productivity management with actual data using PAR. On the other hand, subcontractors would be able to estimate theory-based maximum productivity of construction sites with TACT by using OP. The PAR will enhance the communication between general and sub-contractors for their decision making process. Finally, the main RFs derived from PAR could be used as essential keys for productivity management to increase the economical and operational effectiveness of the construction project.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.334-367
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• 2017

The ICT industry has been the main driver of Korea's economy with international competitiveness and is expected to be the growth engine that will revitalize the currently depressed economy. A broad range of different perspectives and opinions on the industry exist in Korea and overseas. Some of these are stereotypes, not all of which are based on objective evidence. Stereotypes refer to widely-held fixed opinions on a specific group and do not necessarily have negative connotations. However, they should not be viewed lightly because they can substantially affect decision-making process. In this regard, this study sought to review the stereotypes of ICT industry and identify objective and relative stereotypes. In the study, a decision-tree analysis was conducted on a survey result of 3,300 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in order to identify Korean ICT companies' characteristics that distinguish them from other technology companies. The decision-tree analysis, a data mining process based on machine learning, took a total of 291 variables into account in 10 subjects such as: corporate business in general, technology development activities as well as organization and people in technology development. Identifying the variables that distinguish ICT companies from other technology companies with the decision-tree analysis, the study then came up with a list of objective stereotypes of ICT companies. The findings from the stereotypes of Korean ICT companies are as follows. First, the companies are in need of technology policies that help R&D planning and market penetration. Second, policies must better support the companies working to sell new products or explore new business. Third, the companies need policies that support secure protection of development outcomes and proper management of IP rights. Fourth, the administrative procedures related to governmental support for ICT companies' R&D projects must be simplified. It is hoped that the outcome of this study will provide meaningful guidance in establishment, implementation and evaluation of technology policies for ICT SMEs, particularly to policymakers or researchers in relevant government agencies who determine R&D policies for ICT SMEs.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Health Promotion Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.1-16
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• 2004

This paper considers the possibilities of health promotion from the following perspectives; (1) IUHPE, (2) socio-cultural similarities, (3) action research, and (4) learning from our past. 1. The IUHPE values decentralized activities through regions, and countries such as Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China belong to NPWP region. Since IUHPE World Conference was held in Japan in 1995, Japan used to occupy more than 60% of NPWP membership. After 2001, membership is increasing rapidly in Chinese speaking sub-region. The transnational collaboration is still in its beginning phase. 2. Confucianism is one of key points. Confucian tradition should not be seen only as obstacles but as advantages to seek a form of health promotion more acceptable in East Asia. 3. Within the new public health framework, people are expected to create and live their health. However, especially in Japan, the tendency of 'lacking of face-to-face explicit interactions' is still common at health-promotion settings as well as academic settings. Therefore, the author tried participatory approaches such as asking WlFY (interactive questions designed for subjects to review their daily life and environment) and as introducing round table interactions. So far, majority of participants welcome new trials. 4. The following social phenomena are comparatively discussed after Japanese invasion and occupation of Korea ended in 1945; ·status of oriental medicine, ·separation of dispensary services, and ·health promotion specialist as a national license. In contrast to Japanese' tendency of maintaining the status quo and postponing of substantial social change, trend toward rapid and dynamic social changes are more commonly observed in Korea. Although all of above possibilities are still in their beginning stages, they are going to offer interesting directions waiting for further challenges and accompanying researches.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.43-65
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• 2010

Facing a complex environment driven by a decade, many companies are adopting new strategic frameworks such as Customer Relationship Management system to achieve sustainable profitability as well as overcome serious competition for survival. In many business areas, CRM system advanced a great deal in a matter of continuous compensating the defect and overall integration. However, pharmaceutical companies in Korea were slow to accept them for usesince they still have a tendency of holding fast to traditional way of sales and marketing based on individual networks of sales representatives. In the circumstance, this article tried to empirically address current status of CRM system as well as the effects of the system on the performance of pharmaceutical companies by applying BSC method's four perspectives, from financial, customer, learning and growth and internal process. Survey by e-mail and post to employers and employees who were working in pharma firms were undergone for the purpose. Total 113 cases among collected 140 ones were used for the statistical analysis by SPSS ver. 15 package. Reliability, Factor analysis, regression were done. This study revealed that CRM system had a significant effect on improving financial and non-financial performance of pharmaceutical companies as expected. Proposed regression model fits well and among them, CRM marketing information system shed the light on substantial impact on companies' outcome given profitability, growth and investment. Useful analytical information by CRM marketing information system appears to enable pharmaceutical firms to set up effective marketing and sales strategies, these result in favorable financial performance by enhancing values for stakeholderseventually, not to mention short-term profit and/or mid-term potential to growth. CRM system depicted its influence on not only financial performance, but also non-financial fruit of pharmaceutical companies. Further analysis for each component showed that CRM marketing information system were able to demonstrate statistically significant effect on the performance like the result of financial outcome. CRM system is believed to provide the companies with efficient way of customers managing by valuable standardized business process prompt coping with specific customers' needs. It consequently induces customer satisfaction and retentionto improve performance for long period. That is, there is a virtuous circle for creating value as the cornerstone for sustainable growth. However, the research failed to put forward to evidence to support hypothesis regarding favorable influence of CRM sales representative's records assessment system and CRM customer analysis system on the management performance. The analysis is regarded to reflect the lack of understanding of sales people and respondents between actual work duties and far-sighted goal in strategic analysis framework. Ordinary salesmen seem to dedicate short-term goal for the purpose of meeting sales target, receiving incentive bonus in a manner-of-fact style, as such, they tend to avail themselves of personal network and sales and promotional expense rather than CRM system. The study finding proposed a link between CRM information system and performance. It empirically indicated that pharmaceutical companies had been implementing CRM system as an effective strategic business framework in order for more balanced achievements based on the grounded understanding of both CRM system and integrated performance. It suggests a positive impact of supportive CRM system on firm performance, especially for pharmaceutical industry through the initial empirical evidence. Also, it brings out unmet needs for more practical system design, improvement of employees' awareness, increase of system utilization in the field. On the basis of the insight from this exploratory study, confirmatory research by more appropriate measurement tool and increased sample size should be further examined.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.113-124
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• 2013

The government strives to create venture ecosystem for realizing creative economy, at the same time, the Mistry of Education is spending huge resources and efforts to spread entrepreneurship education to universities in Korea. Since entrepreneurship education gives motivation to individuals and creates market innovation and these connect to the growth of national economy through increased efficiency, entrepreneurship education is becoming increasingly more important for realizing creative economy. Based on the importance, entrepreneurship education in the universities is now spreading rapidly. However, college students' entrepreneurial intention has still not been improved comparing to spreading entrepreneurship education. To overcome the poor improvement, entrepreneurship education needs to be driven more systematic direction through the study on the effect of students' motivation and environment. In this study, entrepreneurship as a part of careers perspectives, is analyzed on students' career reasons with entrepreneurial intention. For this study, 918 surveys was collected from 7 universities having entrepreneurship courses in Seoul and Gyeonggi regions in 2012 and analyzed 858 surveys in order to prove the hypothesis. The results disclosed the relationship between students' career reasons and entrepreneurial self-efficacy and intention. Motivation factors of self-realization, innovation and role model have positive effect on entrepreneurial self-efficacy following by increased entrepreneurial intention, unlike the common notion financial success and independence factors are not significant with entrepreneurial intention of students. Based on these results having meaningful implication to Korea entrepreneurship education, this study is expected to have contribution to the successful promoting the creative economy realization of our government.