• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Inflation

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A Study on Land price stabilization plan by Developing Prediction model of Land price -Focusing on Jeju special delf-governing province- (토지가격 예측 모형 개발을 통한 토지가격 안정화 방안 연구 -제주특별자치도를 중심으로-)

  • Kang, Kwon-Oh;Yang, Jeong-Cheol;Hwang, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2017
  • The price of land in Jeju is reaching a new high every day and this phenomenon not only causes real difficulties for the purchase of real estate by local residents, but also results in psychological deprivation. Therefore, this study analyzes the factors causing the increase of the land price in Jeju, in order to examine the measures required to stabilize the land price which is continuously rising. As a result of this study, we developed a land price prediction model including seven variables, including the 'inflation rate', 'interest rate', and 'population'. According to the model, land prices in Jeju are expected to rise steadily, and it is predicted that in 2020 the price will increase to 170% of that in 2015 and will triple by 2025. Based on the results of this study, this study suggested policy alternatives, such as 'Establishing a tourism policy for managing the number of tourists' and 'increasing the approval standards for development activities'. The two policies proposed in this study can be implemented as a regional initiative, which may be less effective than the changes in the national system, but it is meaningful that the efforts to stabilize the land price will continue at the regional level.

A Study on the Prediction Function of Wind Damage in Coastal Areas in Korea (국내 해안지역의 풍랑피해 예측함수에 관한 연구)

  • Sim, Sang-bo;Kim, Yoon-ku;Choo, Yeon-moon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2019
  • The frequency of natural disasters and the scale of damage are increasing due to the abnormal weather phenomenon that occurs worldwide. Especially, damage caused by natural disasters in coastal areas around the world such as Earthquake in Japan, Hurricane Katrina in the United States, and Typhoon Maemi in Korea are huge. If we can predict the damage scale in response to disasters, we can respond quickly and reduce damage. In this study, we developed damage prediction functions for Wind waves caused by sea breezes and waves during various natural disasters. The disaster report (1991 ~ 2017) has collected the history of storm and typhoon damage in coastal areas in Korea, and the amount of damage has been converted as of 2017 to reflect inflation. In addition, data on marine weather factors were collected in the event of storm and typhoon damage. Regression analysis was performed through collected data, Finally, predictive function of the sea turbulent damage by the sea area in 74 regions of the country were developed. It is deemed that preliminary damage prediction can be possible through the wind damage prediction function developed and is expected to be utilized to improve laws and systems related to disaster statistics.

Study on Economic and Financial Education for the North Koreans after Unification: from the Perspective of Behavioral Economics (통일 후 북한 주민 대상 경제금융 교육에 관한 연구: 행태경제학 관점을 중심으로)

  • Son, Jeong-Kook;Kim, Young-Min
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2021
  • Unification means the change of the economic system from 'Planned Economy' of the North Korea to 'Market Economy' of the South Korea. Therefore, it may cause confusions and difficulties for North Koreans who have been under planned economy for ages. So, we need to take the perspective of behavioral economics for the effective education. First of all, it is about overall finance, which contains the record of financial transactions, effect of inflation, investors' bounded rationality, and choice difficulty of financial products. Second, it is about borrowings, which includes the credit management, interest rate of difference among financial institutions. Third, it is about investment on financial products, which includes the effect of cost on returns, difference between compound interest and simple interest, trade-off between expected return and risk, market and non-market risks, the importance of diversification, and passive & aggressive investments.

A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.