• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exchange Rate Rise

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An Empirical Study of the Impact of China's Export Tax Rebates on RMB Appreciation

  • Ma, Degong;Cho, Hyun-Jun
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.273-290
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    • 2012
  • While the issue of RMB (Renminbi, Chinese Yuan) revaluation became the focus of world attention in 2003, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005 didn't fundamentally solve the RMB appreciation problem, and even in 2008 the global financial crisis made RMB appreciation face new challenges and risks. It appears that the rise in RMB value is caused by supply exceeding demand in China's foreign exchange market; however, intrinsically it is due to the asymmetry in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The export tax rebates policy implemented by Chinese government is one of the leading causes of the asymmetry. This study constructs a transmission model between export tax rebates and foreign exchange rates, and applies the Granger Test to validate the causality between kernel variables based on correlative data from 1994-2011, and uses the error correction method to analyze the quantified relations of kernel variables, and finally gets the contribution rate of export tax rebates to RMB appreciation.

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Global Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model

  • ZAFAR, Sadaf;KHAN, Muhammad Arshad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.189-201
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    • 2022
  • The study empirically examines the impact of monetary fundamentals along with global oil prices on the Pak-rupee exchange rate using the monthly data over 2001-2020. Employing the cointegrating vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) and vector error correction model with exogenous variables (VECMX), the study analyzes the impact of domestic monetary fundamentals while considering the foreign variables as weakly exogenous. In order to account for the structural breaks in the data, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with two structural breaks has been used (Lee & Strazicich, 2003). The empirical results reveal that the domestic and foreign monetary variables significantly explain the exchange rate movements in Pakistan both in the long run and in the short run. The dynamic properties of the monetary model of exchange rate have been analyzed using the persistence profile analysis and generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that the responses of shocks to domestic monetary fundamentals are consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Furthermore, being a net oil importer, a rise in global oil prices significantly depreciated the Pak-rupee exchange rate over the period of study. The global financial crisis (GFC) and pandemic (COVID-19) were also found to cause the Pak-rupee exchange rate depreciation.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Korea's Air Trade with China

  • Lim, Jae-Hwan;Kim, Young-Rok;Choi, Yun-Chul;Choi, Yu-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.111-116
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to identify the representative factors affecting the air trade between the two countries over the past 20 years, targeting China, Korea's largest trading partner for air transport. In the analysis, the two countries' GDP, GDP per capita, and tariff rates, as well as exchange rates, international oil prices, and FTAs were used as variables. For the analysis method, OLS multiple regression analysis was performed, and each was analyzed by dividing the export amount, import amount, and trade amount. As a result of the analysis, China's GDP and Korea's GDP per capita showed a positive (+) direction, an increase in the exchange rate resulted in an increase in the amount of trade, and an increase in the tariff rate resulted in a decrease in the amount of trade. Whether the FTA was concluded or not acted as a factor in increasing the amount of trade between the two countries.

Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export & Import Container Volumes in Korea (환율변동성이 우리나라 컨테이너 수출입 물동량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • AHN, Kyung-Ae
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.75
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    • pp.95-116
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    • 2017
  • The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.

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An Empirical Study on the Economic Development Effects on Kazakhstan Focusing on the Macroeconomic Indices: International Oil Price, Interest Rate, Real Exchange Rate (카자흐스탄 경제발전에 대한 실증연구 : 국제유가·이자율·실질환율을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Yun-Seop;Kim, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Recently, countries on the Caspian Sea were had heavily interested due to instability of international resource market. These countries having been developed basing on energy exports, especially Kazakhstan have drastically grown during a decades. However economy, heavily relied on the exports of energy, is influenced on fluctuation in the international energy price as well as sometimes exposed at Dutch disease. These days, Kazakhstan, increased trade and investment with Korea, has been on the rise as new supplier for energy. Therefore, economic change in Kazakhstan can be an important issue. In this paper, we analyze relations among oil price, interest rate, and real exchange rate during sample period from January 1999 to December 2008 expanding Balasa-Samuelson model. Empirical results present that oil price, interest rate, and real exchange rate mutually keep their balance. Eventually, we find out Kazakhstan has exposed at Dutch disease since oil price and interest rate have negative impacts on real exchange rate respectively.

Rapid Energy Transfer Mechanism of F Electronic Excitation to the Vibration of Randomly Distributed $OH^- in KCI

  • 장두전;아철승
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.1063-1068
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    • 1998
  • The nature of F electronic excitation energy transfer to OH- vibrational levels in KCl crystals is the exchange interaction, although the transfer process exhibits three temporally distinguishable components depending on the distance between excited F center and OH-. The critical distance as well as rate of the major energy transfer process in randomly distributed samples increases rapidly as OH- librational motions become active with temperature rise. The excited state character introduced into the OH- ground electronic state by perturbation is essential for the exchange interaction. The perturbation is brought about by the expanded electron cloud of excited F center for OH- associated to F center, whereas by librations and lattice vibrations perpendicular to the bond axis for isolated OH- . F excitation quenching efficiency by OH- is dependent on the variation of the critical distance rather than the rate as the rate is much faster than the normal F bleach recovery rate.

Effect of Group Spacing of Energy Piles on Thermal Analysis (말뚝 간격에 따른 에너지 파일의 열적 거동분석)

  • Min, Hye-Sun;Yun, Tae-Sup;Jeong, Sang-Seom
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.27 no.8
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to analyze the thermal behavior of a PHC energy pi1e system in saturated soil conditions, various seasonal and flow-speed conditions during 100 hours of operation through numerical analysis. The examination was a1so conducted with a single pile as well as with group pils. For the operation of 100 hours, the average heat exchange rate appeared 55 W/m, 47 W/m during winter and summer respectively. An increase in flow-speed was associated with a rise in the heat exchange rate. And thermal behavior analysis results during winter season show that thermal efficiency has increased when there are more free thermal planes. For the operation in group pile as 3D and 5D pile spacing (D: pile diameter), average heat exchange rate increased as pile spacing grows. Compared with the heat exchange rate of single pile, thermal exchange efficiency of group pile decreased by 89% (for 3D spacing) and 93% (for 5D spacing).

Correlation Analysis Among the Price of Apartments in Seoul, Stock Market and main Economic Indicators (서울지역 아파트가격과 주식시장 및 주요 경제지표와의 상관관계 분석)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2014
  • Real estate has been the most preferable investment asset since 1980's has begun. Especially the ups and downs of housing price influence significantly on the household and national economy for a digital economy. In this analysis, monthly movement of apartment price of Seoul and its correlation with KOSPI, construction concerned shares, securities concerned shares, interest rate and exchange rate for 320 months(from January, 1987 to August, 2013) are shown. From the analysis, correlation coefficient of the price of apartment in Seoul and KOSPI is 0.8566 which is highly positive while the price of apartment in Seoul and interest rate are shown strong negative correlation which is -0.7846. The rise of stock market does affect the rise of the price of apartments in Seoul, on the contrary, the price goes down when the interest rate goes up.

Nexus between Indian Economic Growth and Financial Development: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

  • KUMAR, Kundan;PARAMANIK, Rajendra Narayan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2020
  • The study examines the nexus between financial development and economic growth in India during Q1: 1996 to Q3: 2018. This study employs time-series data of real GDP and ratio of broad money to GDP as a proxy for economic and financial development, respectively. The data are obtained from RBI database on the Indian economy. All variables are seasonally adjusted using X12-arima technique and expressed in natural logarithm form. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bound test has been used to check for cointegrating relationship of these two variables. Empirical findings suggest that, unlike in the short run, in the long run financial development does impact economic growth positively. Further, a symmetric effect of positive and negative components of financial development is found for the Indian economy, whereas the effect of control variable like exchange rate and trade openness is in consonance with common economic intuition. Exchange rate is in consonance with intuitive economic logic that a fall in exchange rate makes exports cheaper and increases the quantity of export, which improves the balance of payment and leads to a rise in aggregate demand, hence improves economic growth. This paper contributes to the existing literature on India by breaking down financial indicator into positive and negative components to examine the finance-growth relationship.

Effect of the U.S. Monetary Policy on the Real Economy of the Asia: Focusing on the impact of the exchange rate in Korea, China and Japan (미국의 통화정책이 아시아 실물경제에 미치는 영향: 한국, 중국, 일본의 환율충격을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Nam-Jin
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.3-23
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we used actual proof analysis, based on SVAR model according to economy theory, to observe the impact of actual and financial market of Korea, Japan, and China that have adopted quantitative easing export based strategy of growth, an unconventional monetary policy of the U.S. As a result of estimation, it appears that real effective exchange rate rise shock of Korea, Japan, and China against U.S. dollar has a negative influence on current account and index of industrial product, which are real economy. It can be implied that the result is driven from the fact that strong home currency of Korea, Japan, and China decreases price competitiveness of exports, causing negative influence on real economy. The real effective exchange rate shock against U.S. dollar appeared to decrease national bond rate of Korea and Japan, while increasing that of China. In instances of Korea and Japan, it is implied that national bond rate decreases as foreigner investment funds flow in, considering foreign-exchange profit through advanced financial market with high opening extent. On the other hand, because there are strong regulation on opening extent of Chinese financial markets, the influence seems to be greater for domestic policy, rather than a foreign influence. Lastly, Korea showed a more dramatic variable reaction to exchange rate shock compared to Japan or China. It is implied from the result that Korea is relatively more susceptible and fragile in regards of international status of economic size and currency.