• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exceedance

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Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Emission Control Measures to Improve PM2.5 Concentration in South Korea (미세먼지 농도 개선을 위한 배출량 저감대책 효과 분석)

  • Kim, Eunhye;Bae, Changhan;Yoo, Chul;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Kim, Soontae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.469-485
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    • 2018
  • On September 26, 2017, South Korean government has established the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Plan to improve Korean air quality by 2022, which aims to reduce annual mean surface $PM_{2.5}$ concentration to $18{\mu}g/m^3$. This study demonstrates quantitative assessment of predicted $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations over 17 South Korean regions with the enforcement of the comprehensive plan. We utilize the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with CAPSS 2013 and CREATE 2015 emissions inventories. Simulations are conducted for 2015 with the base emissions and the planned emissions, and impacts from model biases are minimized using the RRF (Relative Response Factor). With effective emission reduction scenario suggested by the comprehensive plan, the model demonstrates that the surface $PM_{2.5}$ concentration may decrease by $6{\mu}g/m^3$ ($23{\mu}g/m^3{\rightarrow}17{\mu}g/m^3$) and $7{\mu}g/m^3$ ($25{\mu}g/m^3{\rightarrow}18{\mu}g/m^3$) for Seoul and South Korea, respectively. The number of high $PM_{2.5}$ days(daily mean>$25{\mu}g/m^3$) also decreases from 21 days to 4 days.

Seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete building structures founded on an XPS layer

  • Koren, David;Kilar, Vojko
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.939-963
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    • 2016
  • According to the new directives about the rational and efficient use of energy, thermal bridges in buildings have to be avoided, and the thermal insulation (TI) layer should run without interruptions all around the building - even under its foundations. The paper deals with the seismic response of multi-storeyed reinforced concrete (RC) frame building structures founded on an extruded polystyrene (XPS) layer placed beneath the foundation slab. The purpose of the paper is to elucidate the problem of buildings founded on a TI layer from the seismic resistance point of view, to assess the seismic behaviour of such buildings, and to search for the critical parameters which can affect the structural and XPS layer response. Nonlinear dynamic and static analyses were performed, and the seismic response of fixed-base (FB) and thermally insulated (TI) variants of nonlinear RC building models were compared. Soil-structure interaction was also taken into account for different types of soil. The results showed that the use of a TI layer beneath the foundation slab of a superstructure generally induces a higher peak response compared to that of a corresponding system without TI beneath the foundation slab. In the case of stiff structures located on firm soil, amplification of the response might be substantial and could result in exceedance of the superstructure's moment-rotation plastic hinge capacities or allowable lateral roof and interstorey drift displacements. In the case of heavier, slenderer, and higher buildings subjected to stronger seismic excitations, the overall response is governed by the rocking mode of oscillation, and as a consequence the compressive strength of the XPS could be insufficient. On the other hand, in the case of low-rise and light-weight buildings, the friction capacity between the layers of the applied TI foundation set might be exceeded so that sliding could occur.

Quantitative Assessment on Contributions of Foreign NOx and VOC Emission to Ozone Concentrations over Gwangyang Bay with CMAQ-HDDM Simulations (CMAQ-HDDM을 이용한 광양만 오존 농도의 국외 기여도 분석)

  • Bae, Changhan;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Kim, Soontae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.708-726
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we examined the contribution of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds emitted from China and Japan to ozone concentrations over Gwangyang-bay, South Korea. We used a chemical transport model, Community Multi-scale Air Quality model, and its instrumented sensitivity tool, High-order Decoupled Direct Method. Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B 2006 for East Asia and Clean Air Policy Support System 2007 emissions inventories for South Korea were used for the ozone simulation. During the study period, May 2007, the modeled maximum daily 8-hr average ozone concentration among seven air quality monitors in Gwangyang-bay was 68.8 ppb. The contribution of $NO_x$ emissions from China was 19.5 ppb (28%). The highest modeled ozone concentrations and Chinese contributions appeared when air parcels were originated from Shanghai area. The observed 8-hr average ozone concentrations in Gwangyang Bay exceeded the national ambient air quality standard (60 ppb) 203 times by daytime and 56 times by nighttime during the period. It was noticed that many exeedances happened when contribution of Chinese emissions to ozone concentrations over the area increased. Sensitivity analysis shows that a reduction in Chinese $NO_x$ and VOC emissions by 15% could lessen the total exceedance hours by 24%. This result indicates that high ozone concentrations over Gwangyang-bay are strongly enhanced by Chinese emissions.

Probabilistic Analysis on Dynamic Response of Steel Box Girder Bridge by Actual Passing Trains (실 통행열차에 의한 강박스거더 교량의 동적응답에 대한 확률론적 분석)

  • Hwang, Eui Seung;Kim, Do Young;Yeo, Inho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.163-171
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    • 2016
  • For railway bridges, serviceabilities such as passenger comfort and train riding safety are important design requirements as well as the structural safety of the bridge. In this paper, dynamic responses of a steel box girder bridge by actual passing trains were measured and analyzed by probabilistic method. Deflections and accelerations data at center of side span were collected for about a month by various types of actual passenger and freight trains. Effects by axle weights, types of trains were analyzed. 100 and 200 years maximum values were estimated by Gumbel probability paper and compared with corresponding requirements in the current design code. Except for some cases of accelerations, estimated values were well below the criteria and exceedance probabilities were very low. More data for longer term and other types of bridges are needed to perform comprehensive analysis on the serviceability of railway bridges.

Accuracy Evaluation and Alert Level Setting for Real-time Cyanobacteria Measurement Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis (ROC 분석을 이용한 수질자동측정소 실시간 남조류 측정의 정확성 평가 및 경보기준 설정)

  • Song, Sanghwan;Park, Jong-hwan;Kang, Tae-Woo;Kim, Young-Suk;Kim, Jihyun;Kang, Taegu
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • With the need to evaluate accuracy of real-time measurement of cyanobacterial fluorescence to determine cyanobacterial blooms, this research examined 357 paired data (2013-2016) comprising both microscopic toxic cyanobacterial cell counts and concurrent real-time cyanobacterial concentrations at 2 sites (YS1 and YS2) in Yeongsan river. The increase in real-time cyanobacterial concentration was closely associated with the exceedance of 5,000 cyanobacterial cells/ml (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.12) and 10,000 cells/ml (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04-1.12) at YS2 site. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the real-time cyanobacterial measurement at the YS2 site was 0.93, which indicates the measurement provides a high accurate detection of cyanobacterial blooms. On the ROC curve, the early alert levels of real-time cyanobacteria ranging $16-23{\mu}g$ chl-a/L would produce acceptable sensitivity of 79% and specificities greater than 90%. The real-time fluorescence measurement was found to be an accurate indicator of cyanobacteria and can serve as a tool for detecting toxic cyanobacterial bloom events in Youngsan river.

Estimation on Drought Indicator Using Various Time Series (다양한 시계열을 이용한 가뭄지표 산정)

  • Im, Gyeong-Jin;Sim, Myeong-Pil;Seong, Gi-Won;Lee, Hyeon-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.673-685
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    • 2001
  • In this study, the drought indicator is calculate from the rainfall, daily highest temperature, streamflow and Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) for water plan and drought management in a relatively wide region. Three levels of drought severity, called drought watch, drought warning, and drought emergency, are established for these series which determine exceedance levels. The 25% nonexceedance level is used for drought watch, 10% for drought warning, and 5% for drought emergency to figure how well the drought indicators represent the past-drought and that those can be used for drought monitoring. As a result, 9-month and 12-month precipitation, and PDSI series shows the best consistency and high correlation indicate droughts. Because the results are based on the gauged data and simply calculated, the suggested indices can be used for basic data for drought monitoring system of a basin.

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A Study on the Risk - based Local Normal CSOs Curve Designs (위험도 기반 지역별 정규 CSOs 곡선 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Jo Deok-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.7 s.168
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    • pp.575-581
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a systematic approach for the economical design of stormwater quality control systems. For the design of runoff quality control system (RQCS), the rainfall-runoff process requires the local rainfall data recorded continuously. In this study the rainfall probability distribution is assumed to follow an exponential decay function. Applying the exponential decay function, the normalized curves are derived to explain the non-exceedance probability distributions. The optimal curves for the determination of the RQCS size are derived based on the overflow risk. Comparison of the optimal capture volume and peak runoff rate to those computed by an urban rainfall-runoff model(ILLUDAS) demonstrates that the optimal CSOs(Combined Sewer Overflows) curves derived in this study can be utilized for the design of stormwater quality control systems in Korea avoiding an excessive computational effort based on over flow risks.

Sensitivity Analysis of GIUH Model Applied to DEM Resolutions and Threshold Areas (GIUH적용을 위한 DEM 격자크기 및 Threshold Area의 민감도분석)

  • Cho, Hyo-Seob;Jung, Kwan-Sue;Kim, Jae-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.799-810
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    • 2003
  • Hydrologic models generally require land surface analysis to different topographic parameters defined as direct or indirect input variables to the model. Specially GIS supply the these parameters from digital data set of land surface The sensitivity analysis to DEM(Digital Elevation Model) resolution and the threshold area are of GIS extracted digital data set applied GIUH(Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph)model is investigated. Also it is compared the responses of GIUH model as input data of stream networks from digital data set(blue line) of NGIS and those extracted from DEM of various grid sizes. The results shows that the GIUH model is significantly affected by the DEM resolution and threshold area. According to the results, DEM grid size is suitable from 25m to 50m. Also threshold area is in the range of 30%∼50% for exceedance probability.

Development of Long Term Flow Duration Curves for the Management of Total Maximum Daily Loads - in the Nakdong River Basin - (수질오염총량관리 단위유역 장기유황곡선 구축 -낙동강수계를 대상으로-)

  • Kim, Gyeong hoon;Kwon, Heon gak;Ahn, Jung min;Kim, Sanghun;Im, Tae hyo;Shin, Dong seok;Jung, Kang-Young
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.939-953
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    • 2017
  • For the development of flow duration curves for the management of 41 Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) units of the Nakdong River basin, first, an equation for estimating daily flow rates as well as the level of correlation (correlation and determination coefficients) was extrapolated through regression analysis of discrete (Ministry of Environment) and continuous (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation) measurement data. The equation derived from the analysis was used to estimate daily flow rates in order to develop flow duration curves for each TMDL unit. By using the equation, the annual flow duration curves and flow curves, for the entire period and for each TMDL unit of the basin, were developed to be demonstrated in this research. Standard flow rates (abundant-, ordinary-, low- and drought flows) for major flow duration periods were calculated based on the annual flow duration curves. Then, the flow rates, based on percentile ranks of exceedance probabilities (5, 25, 50, 75, and 95%), were calculated according to the flow duration curves for the entire period and are suggested in this research. These results can be used for feasibility assessment of the set values of primary and secondary standard flow rates for each river system, which are derived from complicated models. In addition, they will also be useful for the process of implementing TMDL management, including evaluation of the target level of water purity based on load duration curves.

Determination of the Optimal Contract Amount of the Hydropower Energy Considering the Reliabilities of Reservoir Inflows (저수지(貯水池) 유입량(流入量)의 신뢰도(信賴度)를 고려한 최적(最適) 계약전력량(契約電力量)의 결정(決定))

  • Kwon, Oh Hun;Yoo, Ju Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 1993
  • Production of hydro-energy is random in its output amount due to the characteristics of the reservoir inflows. Therefore, it is necessary to provide the rationality in determining the amount of energy for a supply contract. This study presents a methodology for determining reasonably reliable amount of the energy supply considering the energy sale-incomes associated with the penalties which are subject to inflow-reliabilities. The objective function consists of the returns of energy sales and the risk-loss function to reflect statistically relevant risks. A range of the coefficient of the risk-loss function was figured out by its sensitivity analysis. The risk-loss herein means the penalty which should be paid by the energy supplier in case that the level of the energy supply is behind the contracted amount. And the reliability of reservoir inflow is defined by the exceedance probability of the inflow. The log-normal distribution was accepted as the probability density function of monthly inflows on the level of significance at 5%. Golden-ratio searching was applied to identify the optimal reliability and Incremental Dynamic Programming was used to maximize generation of the hydro-power energy in reservoir operation. The algorithm was the applied to the Daechung multi-purpose reservoir and hydro-power plant system in order to verify its usefulness.

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