• 제목/요약/키워드: Exceedance

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Current Status and Applications of Integrated Safety Assessment and Simulation Code System for ISA

  • Izquierdo, J.M.;Hortal, J.;Sanchez Perea, M.;Melendez, E.;Queral, C.;Rivas-Lewicky, J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.295-305
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    • 2017
  • This paper reviews current status of the unified approach known as integrated safety assessment (ISA), as well as the associated SCAIS (simulation codes system for ISA) computer platform. These constitute a proposal, which is the result of collaborative action among the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), University of Madrid (UPM), and NFQ Solutions S.L, aiming to allow independent regulatory verification of industry quantitative risk assessments. The content elaborates on discussions of the classical treatment of time in conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) sequences and states important conclusions that can be used to avoid systematic and unacceptable underestimation of the failure exceedance frequencies. The unified ISA method meets this challenge by coupling deterministic and probabilistic mutual influences. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated with some examples of its application to a real size plant.

서울지역 도시대기측정망 평가 연구 (An Assessment Study for the Urban Air Monitoring Network in Seoul)

  • 김영성;최용주;박지수;김찬혁
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제30권5호
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    • pp.504-509
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    • 2014
  • Twenty-five stations of the urban monitoring network in Seoul were assessed with a focus on surveillance function of the exceedances of 8-hour ozone and 24-hour $PM_{10}$ standards. The two standards were selected because their attainment rates were particularly low. Two hierarchical cluster analyses were performed to group stations with similar atmospheric environments-one using daily highest 8-hour [$O_3+NO_2$], 8-hour $O_3$ concentrations plus corresponding 8-hour $NO_2$ concentrations considering the interconversion of $O_3$ and $NO_2$, and the other using 24-hour $PM_{10}$ concentrations. An index to measure higher concentration and exceedances of the standards was introduced. Within a cluster, sufficiently high score was assigned to the trends station or the station with higher index. Scores for $O_3+NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ of a given station were added and ranked in the descending order to determine the relative importance.

한반도의 지진재해도 작성연구 (A Study on Seismic Hazard Map of Korea)

  • 김성균
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 1997년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Fall 1997
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 1997
  • It has knows that the seismicity of the Korean Peninsula is relatively inactive than those of adjacent northern China and southwestern Japan. Recently the review of long term historical records and recent seismicity. In addition, it is considered that the modern society is more vulnerable to seismic hazard because of high urbanization and industrialization. From this viewpoint, the improvement and modification of the present regulation for aseismic design is strongly proposed. The purpose of the present study is to prepare seismic hazard maps for Korea to be used in improving the present regulation. The present study was performed as a cooperative project of eight Korean seismologists. Each seismologist calculated independently seismic hazard value at the given grid points based on his own judgement about methodology and seismicity. Then the values are unified with equal weight to produce a seismic hazard map. Seven seismic hazard maps for peak acceleration with 10 percentile probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 years are presented. This probability of exceedancd in such years corresponds to return period of 48, 95, 190, 475, 950, 2373, 4747 years, respectively. It is recommended to use a hazard map to be selected on the basis of the importance and the design level of structures.

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Nonlinear dynamic response of reinforced concrete building retrofitted with buckling restrained braces

  • Guneyisi, Esra Mete;Tunca, Osman;Azez, Ibrahim
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.1349-1362
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents an analytical study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of using buckling-restrained braces (BRBs) in mitigating the seismic response of a case study 6 storey reinforced concrete (RC) building. In the design of the BRBs with non-prismatic cross-sections, twelve combinations of ${\alpha}$ and ${\beta}$ design parameters that influence the strength and stiffness of the BRBs, respectively, were considered. The response of the structure with and without BRBs under earthquake ground accelerations were evaluated through nonlinear dynamic analysis. Two sets of ground motions representative of the design earthquake with 10% and 50% exceedance probability in fifty years were taken into account. By comparing the structural performance of the original and buckling restrained braced structures, it was observed that the use of the BRBs were very effective in mitigating the seismic response as a retrofit scheme. However, the selection of the strength and stiffness parameters of the BRBs had considerable effect on the response characteristics of RC structures. For instance, by increasing the value of ${\alpha}$ and by decreasing the value of ${\beta}$ of the buckling-restrained braces, the maximum deformation demand of the structures increased.

Reevaluation of Seismic Fragility Parameters of Nuclear Power Plant Components Considering Uniform Hazard Spectrum

  • Park, In-Kil;Choun, Young-Sun;Seo, Jeong-Moon;Yun, Kwan-Hee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.586-595
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    • 2002
  • The Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) or seismic margin assessment (SMA) have been used for the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plant structures and equipments. For the SPRA or SMA, the reference response spectrum should be defined. The site-specific median spectrum has been generally used for the seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipments in a Korean nuclear power plant Since the site-specific spectrum has been developed based on the peak ground motion parameter, the site-specific response spectrum does not represent the same probability of exceedance over the entire frequency range of interest. The uniform hazard spectrum is more appropriate to be used in seismic probabilistic risk assessment than the site- specific spectrum. A method for modifying the seismic fragility parameters that are calculated based on the site-specific median spectrum is described. This simple method was developed to incorporate the effects of the uniform hazard spectrum. The seismic fragility parameters of typical NPP components are modified using the uniform hazard spectrum. The modification factor is used to modify the original fragility parameters. An example uniform hazard spectrum is developed using the available seismic hazard data for the Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) site. This uniform hazard spectrum is used for the modification of fragility parameters.

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC ASSESSMENT OF BASE-ISOLATED NPPS SUBJECTED TO STRONG GROUND MOTIONS OF TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

  • Ali, Ahmer;Hayah, Nadin Abu;Kim, Dookie;Cho, Ung Gook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.699-706
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    • 2014
  • The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN;JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL;LIM, TAE-JIN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제47권1호
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2015
  • Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

Application of a Sediment Quality Index to the Masan Bay, Korea

  • Shim, Won-Joon;Hong, Sang-Hee
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.367-378
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    • 2007
  • A sediment quality index (SQI) and a mean sediment quality guideline quotient (M-SQGQ) were applied for the assessment of sediment quality in Masan Bay, Korea where metals and organic pollutants are of concern. The SQI was calculated by two functions, 'scope' (the number of variables that do not meet guideline objective) and 'amplitude' (the magnitude by which variables exceed guideline objective), with six different sediment quality guideline values from Canada, USA and Australia/New Zealand. Categorization of sediment quality was on the basis of SQI scores. The SQI values were compared with six guideline values applied as well as with the M-SQGQs. The SQI values were severely influenced by a few variables of high exceedance in the degree of non-compliance. The SQI values were very dependent on both the numbers and values of guideline variables used in index caluculation. Nevertheless, the SQI could provide integrated and simplified information from a large number of chemical data set. It is required to further evaluate protocols and guideline applied for deriving SQI and to compare it with field based sediment toxicity test and ecosystem integrity.

2016년 경주지진에 의한 국내 도시철도 교량의 잠재적 손상평가 (Damage Potential of a Domestic Metropolitan Railway Bridge subjected to 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake)

  • 이도형;심재엽;전종수
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제20권7_spc호
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2016
  • Damage potential has been investigated for a domestic metropolitan railway bridge subjected to 2016 Gyeongju earthquake which has been reported as the strongest earthquake in Korea. For this purpose, nonlinear static pushover analyses for the bridge piers have been carried out to evaluate ductility capacities. Then, the capacities have been compared with those suggested by Railway Design Standards of Korea. This comparison shows that all piers possess enough safety margins. Nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis has also been conducted to estimate both displacement and shear force demands for the bridge subjected to ground motions recorded at stations in near of Gyeongju. Maximum demands reveal that response under the ground motions remains essentially in elastic. In addition, for a further assessment of the bridge under the Gyeongju earthquake, fragility analyses have been performed using those ground motions. The fragility results indicate that the recorded earthquakes do not significantly affect the damage exceedance probability of the bridge piers.

Evaluating the effective spectral seismic amplification factor on a probabilistic basis

  • Makarios, Triantafyllos K.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제42권1호
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2012
  • All contemporary seismic Codes have adopted smooth design acceleration response spectra, which have derived by statistical analysis of many elastic response spectra of natural accelerograms. The above smooth design spectra are characterized by two main branches, an horizontal branch that is 2.5 times higher than the peak ground acceleration, and a declining parabolic branch. According to Eurocode EN/1998, the period range of the horizontal, flat branch is extended from 0.1 s, for rock soils, up to 0.8 s for softer ones. However, from many natural recorded accelerograms of important earthquakes, the real spectral amplification factor appears to be much higher than 2.5 and this means that the spectrum leads to an unsafe seismic design of the structures. This point is an issue open to question and it is the object of the present study. In the present paper, the spectral amplification factor of the smooth design acceleration spectra is re-calculated on the grounds of a known "reliability index" for a desired probability of exceedance. As a pilot scheme, the seismic area of Greece is chosen, as it is the most seismically hazardous area in Europe. The accelerograms of the 82 most important earthquakes, which have occurred in Greece during the last 38 years, are used. The soil categories are taken into account according to EN/1998. The results that have been concluded from these data are compared with the results obtained from other strong earthquakes reported in the World literature.