• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.5_3
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• pp.1037-1051
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• 2020

The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.12a
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• pp.45-73
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• 1995

The current paper presents a system dynamics model which can generate the land use anq transportation system performance simultaneously is proposed. The model system consists of 7 submodels (population, migration of population, household, job growth-employment-land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level), and each of them is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socio-economic, and policy variables. The important advantages of the system dynamics model are as follows. First, the model can address the complex interactions between land use and transportation system performance dynamically. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for evaluating the time-by-time effect of a policy over time horizons. Secondly, the system dynamics model is not relied on the assumption of equilibrium state of urban systems as in conventional models since it determines the state of model components directly through dynamic system simulation. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is very flexible in reflecting new features, such as a policy, a new phenomenon which has not existed in the past, a special event, or a useful concept from other methodology, since it consists of a lots of separated equations. In Chapter I, II, and III, overall approach and structure of the model system are discussed with causal-loop diagrams and major equations. In Chapter V _, the performance of the developed model is applied to the analysis of the impact of highway capacity expansion on land use for the area of Montgomery County, MD. The year-by-year impacts of highway capacity expansion on congestion level and land use are analyzed with some possible scenarios for the highway capacity expansion. This is a first comprehensive attempt to use dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions. The model structure is not very elaborate mainly due to the problem of the availability of behavioral data, but the model performance results indicate that the proposed approach can be a promising one in dealing comprehensively with complicated urban land use/transportation system.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.91-129
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• 2024

The Bank of Korea, through a legal amendment in 2011 following the financial crisis, was entrusted with the additional responsibility of financial stability beyond its existing mandate of price stability. Since then, concerns have been raised about the prolonged increase in household debt compared to income conditions, which could constrain consumption and growth and increase the possibility of a crisis in the event of negative economic shocks. The current accumulation of financial imbalances suggests a critical period for the government and central bank to be more vigilant, ensuring it does not impede the stable flow of our financial and economic systems. This study examines the applicability of the Integrated Inflation Targeting (IIT) framework proposed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for macro-financial stability in promoting long-term economic stability. Using VAR models, the study reveals a clear increase in risk appetite following interest rate cuts after the financial crisis, leading to a rise in household debt. Additionally, analyzing the central bank's conduct of monetary policy from 2000 to 2021 through DSGE models indicates that the Bank of Korea has operated with a form of IIT, considering both inflation and growth in its policy decisions, with some responsiveness to the increase in household debt. However, the estimation of a high interest rate smoothing coefficient suggests a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, estimating the optimal interest rate rule to minimize the central bank's loss function reveals that a policy considering inflation, growth, and being mindful of household credit conditions is superior. It suggests that the policy of actively adjusting the benchmark interest rate in response to changes in economic conditions and being attentive to household credit situations when household debt is increasing rapidly compared to income conditions has been analyzed as a desirable policy approach. Based on these findings, we conclude that the integrated inflation targeting framework proposed by the BIS could be considered as an alternative policy system that supports the stable growth of the economy in the medium to long term.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.147-187
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• 2008

Online game researchers focus on the flow and factors influencing flow. Flow is conceptualized as an optimal experience state and useful explaining game experience in online. Many game studies focused on the customer loyalty and flow in playing online game, In showing specific game experience, however, it doesn't examine multidimensional experience process. Flow is not construct which show absorbing process, but construct which show absorbing result. Hence, Flow is not adequate to examine multidimensional experience of games. Online game is included in hedonic consumption. Hedonic consumption is a relatively new field of study in consumer research and it explores the consumption experience as a experiential view(Hirschman and Holbrook 1982). Hedonic consumption explores the consumption experience not as an information processing event but from a phenomenological of experiential view, which is a primarily subjective state. It includes various playful leisure activities, sensory pleasures, daydreams, esthetic enjoyment, and emotional responses. In online game experience, therefore, it is right to access through a experiential view of hedonic consumption. The objective of this paper was to make up for lacks in our understanding of online game experience by developing a framework for better insight into the hedonic experience of online game. We developed this framework by integrating and extending existing research in marketing, online game and hedonic responses. We then discussed several expectations for this framework. We concluded by discussing the results of this study, providing general recommendation and directions for future research. In hedonic response research, Lacher's research(1994)and Jongho lee and Yunhee Jung' research (2005;2006) has served as a fundamental starting point of our research. A common element in this extended research is the repeated identification of the four hedonic responses: sensory response, imaginal response, emotional response, analytic response. The validity of these four constructs finds in research of music(Lacher 1994) and movie(Jongho lee and Yunhee Jung' research 2005;2006). But, previous research on hedonic response didn't show that constructs of hedonic response have cause-effect relation. Also, although hedonic response enable to different by stimulus properties. effects of stimulus properties is not showed. To fill this gap, while largely based on Lacher(1994)' research and Jongho Lee and Yunhee Jung(2005, 2006)' research, we made several important adaptation with the primary goal of bringing the model into online game and compensating lacks of previous research. We maintained the same construct proposed by Lacher et al.(1994), with four constructs of hedonic response:sensory response, imaginal response, emotional response, analytical response. In this study, the sensory response is typified by some physical movement(Yingling 1962), the imaginal response is typified by images, memories, or situations that game evokes(Myers 1914), and the emotional response represents the feelings one experiences when playing game, such as pleasure, arousal, dominance, finally, the analytical response is that game player engaged in cognition seeking while playing game(Myers 1912). However, this paper has several important differences. We attempted to suggest multi-dimensional experience process in online game and cause-effect relation among hedonic responses. Also, We investigated moderate effects of perceived complexity. Previous studies about hedonic responses didn't show influences of stimulus properties. According to Berlyne's theory(1960, 1974) of aesthetic response, perceived complexity is a important construct because it effects pleasure. Pleasure in response to an object will increase with increased complexity, to an optimal level. After that, with increased complexity, pleasure begins with a linearly increasing line for complexity. Therefore, We expected this perceived complexity will influence hedonic response in game experience. We discussed the rationale for these suggested changes, the assumptions of the resulting framework, and developed some expectations based on its application in Online game context. In the first stage of methodology, questions were developed to measure the constructs. We constructed a survey measuring our theoretical constructs based on a combination of sources, including Yingling(1962), Hargreaves(1962), Lacher (1994), Jongho Lee and Yunhee Jung(2005, 2006), Mehrabian and Russell(1974), Pucely et al(1987). Based on comments received in the pretest, we made several revisions to arrive at our final survey. We investigated the proposed framework through a convenience sample, where participation in a self-report survey was solicited from various respondents having different knowledges. All respondents participated to different degrees, in these habitually practiced activities and received no compensation for their participation. Questionnaires were distributed to graduates and we used 381 completed questionnaires to analysis. The sample consisted of more men(n=225) than women(n=156). In measure, the study used multi-item scales based previous study. We analyze the data using structural equation modeling(LISREL-VIII; Joreskog and Sorbom 1993). First, we used the entire sample(n=381) to refine the measures and test their convergent and discriminant validity. The evidence from both the factor analysis and the analysis of reliability provides support that the scales exhibit internal consistency and construct validity. Second, we test the hypothesized structural model. And, we divided the sample into two different complexity group and analyze the hypothesized structural model of each group. The analysis suggest that hedonic response plays different roles from hypothesized in our study. The results indicate that hedonic response-sensory response, imaginal response, emotional response, analytical response- are related positively to respondents' level of game satisfaction. And game satisfaction is related to higher levels of game loyalty. Additionally, we found that perceived complexity is important to online game experience. Our results suggest that importance of each hedonic response different by perceived game complexity. Understanding the role of perceived complexity in hedonic response enables to have a better understanding of underlying mechanisms at game experience. If game has high complexity, analytical response become important response. So game producers or marketers have to consider more cognitive stimulus. Controversy, if game has low complexity, sensorial response respectively become important. Finally, we discussed several limitations of our study and suggested directions for future research. we concluded with a discussion of managerial implications. Our study provides managers with a basis for game strategies.