• Title/Summary/Keyword: Event modeling

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Analyzing effect and importance of input predictors for urban streamflow prediction based on a Bayesian tree-based model

  • Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.134-134
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    • 2022
  • Streamflow forecasting plays a crucial role in water resource control, especially in highly urbanized areas that are very vulnerable to flooding during heavy rainfall event. In addition to providing the accurate prediction, the evaluation of effects and importance of the input predictors can contribute to water manager. Recently, machine learning techniques have applied their advantages for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. However, the techniques have not considered properly the importance and uncertainty of the predictor variables. To address these concerns, we applied the GA-BART, that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) with the Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model for hourly streamflow forecasting and analyzing input predictors. The Jungrang urban basin was selected as a case study and a database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 from the rain gauges and monitoring stations. For the goal of this study, we used a combination of inputs that included the areal rainfall of the subbasins at current time step and previous time steps and water level and streamflow of the stations at time step for multistep-ahead streamflow predictions. An analysis of multiple datasets including different input predictors was performed to define the optimal set for streamflow forecasting. In addition, the GA-BART model could reasonably determine the relative importance of the input variables. The assessment might help water resource managers improve the accuracy of forecasts and early flood warnings in the basin.

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Seismic analysis of free-standing spent-fuel dry storage cask considering soil-concrete pad-cask interaction

  • Seungpil Kim;Sang Soon Cho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.10
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    • pp.4446-4454
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    • 2024
  • This paper presents a seismic analysis method that can evaluate a very large number of cases for the free standing dry storage cask by proposing a methodology that has short analysis time as well as accuracy. This study also performed a seismic analysis of a dry storage facility with multiple casks to show a tip-over phenomenon from earthquake accident conditions. The earthquake accident condition is long-term event that occur during about 20 s long, and lots of seismic analysis cases should be performed to consider various real conditions because the free-standing spent-fuel dry storage cask has many nonlinear responses. The soil-concrete pad-cask interaction was considered in the seismic analysis and finite element model was made using concrete pad, soil and cask models. In the reinforced concrete pad, the rebar was excluded to reduce the analysis time, but the thickness was corrected to maintain the bending rigidity. Additionally, the analysis time reduced by modeling the cask as a rigid body rather than a flexible body. 35-cases of seismic analysis were performed to determine a tip-over phenomenon from each earthquake. The analysis revealed that no tip-over phenomenon of the cask was observed in all analyses from 0.2 g to 0.6 g, however the tip-over of the cask were observed from 0.8 g with friction coefficients of 0.8 and 1.0.

A Study on the Simulation Modeling Method of LKAS Test Evalution (LKAS 시험평가의 시뮬레이션 모델링 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Geon-Hwan;Lee, Seon-bong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2020
  • The leading technologies of the ADAS (Advanced Driver Assist System) are ACC (Advanced Cruise Control), LKAS (Lane Keeping Assist System), and AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking). LKAS is a system that uses cameras and infrared sensors to control steering and return to its running lane in the event of unintentional deviations. The actual test is performed for a safety evaluation and verification of the system. On the other hand, research on the system evaluation method is insufficient when an additional steering angle is applied. In this study, a model using Prescan was developed and simulated for the scenarios proposed in the preceding study. Comparative analyses of the simulation and the actual test were performed. As a result, the modeling validity was verified. A difference between the front wheels and the lane occurred due to the return velocity. The results revealed a maximum error of 0.56 m. The error occurred because the lateral velocity of the car was relatively small. On the other hand, the distance from wheels to the lanes displayed a tendency of approximately 0.5 m. This can be verified reliably.

Application of LID Methods for Sustainable Management of Small Urban Stream Using SWMM (SWMM 모델을 이용한 지속 가능한 도시 소하천 관리를 위한 LID 기법의 적용 방안 연구)

  • Han, Yanghui;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.10
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    • pp.691-697
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    • 2014
  • Though the upper stream basin area of Gwanpyung-Cheon in Daejeon, Korea is protected as Green Belt Zone, the stream is under constant environmental pressure due to current agricultural practices and infrastructure development in its basin area. To develop appropriate integrated water resources management plan for the stream, it is necessary to consider not only water quality problems but also water quantity aspect. In this study, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was calibrated and validated with sets of field measurements to predict for future water flow and water quality conditions for any rainfall event. While flow modeling results showed good agreement by showing correlation coefficient is greater than 0.9, water quality modeling results showed relatively less accurate levels of agreements with correlation coefficient between 0.67 and 0.87. Hypothetical basin development scenarios were developed to compare effect on stream water quality and quantity when Low Impact Development (LID) technologies are applied in the basin. The results of this study can be used effectively in decision making processes of urban development Gwanpyung-Cheon area by comparing basin management alternatives such as LID methods.

University-level Flipped Classroom Learner Competency Modeling (대학의 플립드 러닝에서 우수 학습자 역량모델링)

  • Kim, Rang;Song, Hae-Deok
    • 교육공학연구
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.1001-1024
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    • 2017
  • Flipped classroom has used widely in university in that its unique structure can facilitate learners' higher-thinking skills and promote competencies. Learners are expected to extend knowledge through performing online and offline, but they have difficulty in understanding their roles and specific behaviors to achieve the learning goals in the flipped learning. Therefore, a guidance for students has been required to support learners' mastery learning. The purpose of this study is to identify successful learners' characteristics in terms of "competency". For this, three-phased competency modeling was employed. In Phase I, Behavioral Event Interviews were conducted with eight learners of the flipped classroom. In Phase II for identifying competencies and developing a competency model, the data was coded, followed by testing reliability of the coding. Based on the meaning codes, competencies and behavioral indexes were developed. The final competencies consist of learning orientation, learning management, feedback seeking, peer interaction, and knowledge extension. In Phase III, validation of the competency model was conducted by explanatory factor analysis. As last, competencies were aligned by the two-phase of the flipped classroom. The finding will be used as the guidance for the learners and instructors in the flipped classroom.

A Study on the Implement of AI-based Integrated Smart Fire Safety (ISFS) System in Public Facility

  • Myung Sik Lee;Pill Sun Seo
    • International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 2023
  • Even at this point in the era of digital transformation, we are still facing many problems in the safety sector that cannot prevent the occurrence or spread of human casualties. When you are in an unexpected emergency, it is often difficult to respond only with human physical ability. Human casualties continue to occur at construction sites, manufacturing plants, and multi-use facilities used by many people in everyday life. If you encounter a situation where normal judgment is impossible in the event of an emergency at a life site where there are still many safety blind spots, it is difficult to cope with the existing manual guidance method. New variable guidance technology, which combines artificial intelligence and digital twin, can make it possible to prevent casualties by processing large amounts of data needed to derive appropriate countermeasures in real time beyond identifying what safety accidents occurred in unexpected crisis situations. When a simple control method that divides and monitors several CCTVs is digitally converted and combined with artificial intelligence and 3D digital twin control technology, intelligence augmentation (IA) effect can be achieved that strengthens the safety decision-making ability required in real time. With the enforcement of the Serious Disaster Enterprise Punishment Act, the importance of distributing a smart location guidance system that urgently solves the decision-making delay that occurs in safety accidents at various industrial sites and strengthens the real-time decision-making ability of field workers and managers is highlighted. The smart location guidance system that combines artificial intelligence and digital twin consists of AIoT HW equipment, wireless communication NW equipment, and intelligent SW platform. The intelligent SW platform consists of Builder that supports digital twin modeling, Watch that meets real-time control based on synchronization between real objects and digital twin models, and Simulator that supports the development and verification of various safety management scenarios using intelligent agents. The smart location guidance system provides on-site monitoring using IoT equipment, CCTV-linked intelligent image analysis, intelligent operating procedures that support workflow modeling to immediately reflect the needs of the site, situational location guidance, and digital twin virtual fencing access control technology. This paper examines the limitations of traditional fixed passive guidance methods, analyzes global technology development trends to overcome them, identifies the digital transformation properties required to switch to intelligent variable smart location guidance methods, explains the characteristics and components of AI-based public facility smart fire safety integrated system (ISFS).

Analysis of the Effect of Objective Functions on Hydrologic Model Calibration and Simulation (목적함수에 따른 매개변수 추정 및 수문모형 정확도 비교·분석)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Yeon, Min Ho;Kim, Young Hun;Jung, Sung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • An automatic optimization technique is used to estimate the optimal parameters of the hydrologic model, and different hydrologic response results can be provided depending on objective functions. In this study, the parameters of the event-based rainfall-runoff model were estimated using various objective functions, the reproducibility of the hydrograph according to the objective functions was evaluated, and appropriate objective functions were proposed. As the rainfall-runoff model, the storage function model(SFM), which is a lumped hydrologic model used for runoff simulation in the current Korean flood forecasting system, was selected. In order to evaluate the reproducibility of the hydrograph for each objective function, 9 rainfall events were selected for the Cheoncheon basin, which is the upstream basin of Yongdam Dam, and widely-used 7 objective functions were selected for parameter estimation of the SFM for each rainfall event. Then, the reproducibility of the simulated hydrograph using the optimal parameter sets based on the different objective functions was analyzed. As a result, RMSE, NSE, and RSR, which include the error square term in the objective function, showed the highest accuracy for all rainfall events except for Event 7. In addition, in the case of PBIAS and VE, which include an error term compared to the observed flow, it also showed relatively stable reproducibility of the hydrograph. However, in the case of MIA, which adjusts parameters sensitive to high flow and low flow simultaneously, the hydrograph reproducibility performance was found to be very low.

A Colored Workflow Model for Business Process Analysis (비즈니스 프로세스 분석을 위한 색채형 워크플로우 모델)

  • Jeong, Woo-Jin;Kim, Kwang-Hoon
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.113-129
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    • 2009
  • Abstract Corporate activities are composed of numerous working processes and during the working flow, various business processes are being created and completed simultaneously. Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP) makes the working process simple, yet creates more complicated work structure and therefore, there is an absolute need of efficient management for business processes. The workflow literature has been looking for efficient and effective ways of rediscovering and mining workflow intelligence and knowledge from their enactment histories and event logs. As part of studies to analyze and improve the process, the concepts of 'Process Mining', 'Process re-discovery', 'BPR (Business Process Reengineering)' have appeared and the studies for practical implementation are proactively being done. However, these studies normally follow the approach throughout data warehousing for log data of process instances. It is very hard for these approaches to reflect user's intention to the rediscovering and mining activities. The process instances designed based on the consideration of analysis can make groupings effectively and when the analysis demand of user changes within the analysis domain can also reduce the cost of analysis. Therefore, the thesis proposes a special type of workflow model, which is called a colored workflow model, that is extended from the ICN (information control net) modeling methodology by reinforcing the concept of colored token. The colored tokens represent the conceptual types of constraints and criteria that can be used to classifying and grouping the workflow intelligence and knowledge extracted from the corresponding workflow models' enactment histories and event logs. Through the runtime information of process instances, it makes possible to analyze proactive and user-oriented process with the goal of deriving business knowledge from the beginning of process definition.

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Characteristics of Nonpoint Source Pollution and Relationship between Land Use and Nutrient Concentrations in the Han River Watershed (강우시 한강유역에서의 비점오염원 유출 특성과 토지이용도와의 관계)

  • Jung, Sungmin;Eum, Jaesung;Jang, Changwon;Choi, Youngsoon;Kim, Bomchul
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.255-268
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    • 2012
  • Nonpoint source pollution has become a concern for water quality in the Han River system, especially during the high runoff events during the monsoon season. The patterns in nonpoint source runoff the relationships with land use, rainfall intensity, and stream nutrients concentrations were surveyed in 19 streams in the Han River watershed. The results show that the magnitude of NPS inputs of nutrients and sediment in the Han River watershed are of a serious concern. In the South Han River watershed, event mean concentrations (EMC) for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), suspended sediment (SS), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved total phosphorus (DTP), total nitrogen (TN) Nitrate ($NO_3$-N) and total phosphorus (TP) were $1.94mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;251mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;2.75mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;0.076mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;2.82mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;2.40mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ and $0.232mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$, respectively. In the North Han River watershed, EMCs for BOD, SS, DOC, DTP, TN, $NO_3$-N and TP were $1.34mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;172mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;2.63mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;0.032mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;1.97mg{\cdot}L^{-1},\;1.55mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ and $0.148mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$, respectively. The specific export coefficients of nutrient and sediments were much higher than those of other reports. Our study also found that the proportion of agricultural field area was significantly correlated with the EMCs for nutrients. Therefore, efforts to reduce NPS loading must focus on agricultural practices in the watershed. The relationships between land use and nutrient and sediment export found in this study can be used to derive estimates of runoff coefficients for agricultural field and as input data for modeling works and to develop total maximum daily load and best management practices in the Han River watershed.

A Model for Post-Traumatic Stress and Burnout in Firefighters (소방대원의 출동충격스트레스와 소진에 관한 구조모형)

  • Choi, Eun-Sook
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.147-164
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the hypothetical model designed to explain the post-traumatic stress and burnout in firefighters. Six exogenous variables such as career, control, impact mobilization frequency, life event, work burden, social support, and four endogenous variables, eg., mobilization impact, coping, post-traumatic stress, burnout were considered for the study. The target population for the distribution of the questionnaire was 428 firefighters in Daejeon, Chungnam Province, Seoul and Kyonggi Province. The data was collected about five weeks, July 12-August 25, 1999. The survey instrument was 8 control items by Seo(1995), 10 life event items by Brugha and Cragg(1990), 20 work burden items by Choi(2000), 12 social support items by Park(1985), post-traumatic stress of 17 items by Foa et al.(1998) and 45 items by Kang(1997). The reliability of the survey instrument and the cronbach's alpha was .62 - .93 level. SAS PC Program and LISREL 8.12a program were used for descriptive statistics and linear structural relationship(LISREL) modeling. Based on the data collected, the following results were obtained. 1. The overall fit of the hypothetical model to the data was good (${\chi}^2=54.65$ [df=17, p=0.000007], RMSEA=0.07, standardized RMR=0.03, GFI=0.98, AGFI=0.91, NFI=0.90, NNFI=0.75). 2. After considering statistical significance and theoretical meaningfulness of paths of the model, a modified model was sought. Compared to the hypothetical model, the modified model has become parsimonious and had a better fit to the data(${\chi}^2=55.90$ [df=20, p=0.0003], RMSEA=0.06, standardized RMR=0.03, GFI=0.98, AGFI=0.93, NFI=0.90, NNFI=0.80). 3. The results of statistical testing of hypotheses were as follows: (1) Work burden, career had a significantly direct effect on mobilization impact. These variables explained 9% of the total variance of mobilization impact. (2) Control, social support, work burden, mobilization impact had a significantly direct effect on coping. These variables explained 15% of the total variance of coping. (3) Control, work burden, social support, coping had a significantly direct effect on post-traumatic stress. These variables explained 49% of the total variance of post-traumatic stress. (4) Coping, post-traumatic stress had a significantly direct effect on burnout. These variables explained 60% of the total variance of burnout.

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