• 제목/요약/키워드: Event Study Analysis

검색결과 2,015건 처리시간 0.029초

원자력발전소의 물리적방호를 위한 핵심구역파악 규칙 개발 및 적용 (Vital Area Identification Rule Development and Its Application for the Physical Protection of Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 정우식;황미정;강민호
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.160-171
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    • 2017
  • US national research laboratories developed the first Vital Area Identification (VAI) method for the physical protection of nuclear power plants that is based on Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) techniques in 1970s. Then, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute proposed advanced VAI method that takes advantage of fire and flooding Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) results. In this study, in order to minimize the burden and difficulty of VAI, (1) a set of streamlined VAI rules were developed, and (2) this set of rules was applied to PSA fault tree and event tree at the initial stage of VAI process. This new rule-based VAI method is explained, and its efficiency and correctness are demonstrated throughout this paper. This new rule-based VAI method drastically reduces problem size by (1) performing PSA event tree simplification by applying VAI rules to the PSA event tree, (2) calculating preliminary prevention sets with event tree headings, (3) converting the shortest preliminary prevention set into a sabotage fault tree, and (4) performing usual VAI procedure. Since this new rule-based VAI method drastically reduces VAI problem size, it provides very quick and economical VAI procedure. In spite of an extremely reduced sabotage fault tree, this method generates identical vital areas to those by traditional VAI method. It is strongly recommended that this new rule-based VAI method be applied to the physical protection of nuclear power plants and other complex safety-critical systems such as chemical and military systems.

Stock Market Behavior after Large Price Changes and Winner-Loser Effect: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

  • RASHEED, Muhammad Sahid;SHEIKH, Muhammad Fayyaz;SULTAN, Jahanzaib;ALI, Qamar;BHUTTA, Aamir Inam
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권10호
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2021
  • The study examines the behavior of stock prices after large price changes. It further examines the effect of firm size on stock returns, and the presence of the disposition effect. The study employs the event study methodology using daily price data from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for the period January 2001 to July 2012. Furthermore, to examine the factors that explain stock price behavior after large price movements, the study employs a two-way fixed-effect model that allows for the analysis of unobservable company and time fixed effects that explain market reversals or continuation. The findings suggest that winners perform better than losers after experiencing large price shocks thus showing a momentum behavior. In addition, the winners remain the winner, while the losers continue to lose more. This suggests that most of the investors in PSX behave rationally. Further, the study finds no evidence of disposition effect in PSX. The investors underreact to new information and the prices continue to move in the direction of initial change. The pooled regression estimates show that firm size is positively related to post-event abnormal returns while the fixed-effect model reveals the presence of unobservable firm-specific and time-specific effects that account for price continuation.

울산 야시장 서비스 품질이 감정, 행동의도 및 지역발전성과에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of Service Quality on Emotions, Behavior Intention and Local Development Performance in the Ulsan Night Market)

  • 서경화
    • 한국조리학회지
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    • 제23권8호
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2017
  • This study identified the important service quality of the emerging night market as an alternative for the revitalization of the traditional market. This study also was to analyze the effects of service quality on customers' emotions, behavior intention and local performance in night market, and to provide an effective operation plan. The collected data were analyzed by frequency analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis and multiple regression analysis using SPSS 16.0 Version, a statistical package program, and various results were discovered. First, all the service quality factors (convenience, food, event program, physical environment) had a positive (+) effect on positive emotion, and the service quality factors except event program had a negative (-) effect on negative emotions. Second, the service quality factors had a partially positive (+) effect on behavior intention and local performance. Third, the positive and negative emotions had a effect on behavior intention, however, the positive emotions had a positive (+) effect on local performance. Consequently, the present study confirmed that service quality in the night market is important factors for emotions, behavior intention, and local performance. Therefore, the findings of this study is capable of being the basic data for revitalizing the traditional market in the future.

인지갈등과 비인지적 변인이 개념변화에 미치는 영향 및 변칙사례에 의해 유발된 상황 흥미의 근원 (The Influences of Cognitive Conflict and Non-Cognitive Variables on Conceptual Change and the Sources of Situational Interest Induced by a Discrepant Event)

  • 강훈식;김민경;노태희
    • 한국과학교육학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2007
  • 이 연구에서는 변칙사례에 의해 유발된 인지갈등과 비인지적 변인이 개념변화 과정에 미치는 영향과 변칙사례가 상황 흥미를 유발하는 과정을 조사하였다. 중학교 1학년 학생들이 연구에 참여하였다. 밀도 개념에 대해 오개념을 지닌 학생들을 선별하기 위해 선개념 검사를 실시하였다. 변칙사례에 대한 인지적 반응검사와 상황 흥미 검사를 실시하였다. CAl 프로그램을 통해 학습하게 한 후, 주의집중 검사, 노력 검사, 개념 검사를 실시하였다. 경로 분석 결과, 변칙사례에 의해 유발된 인지갈등이 상황 흥미를 유발하고 이것이 개념학습 과정에서의 학생들의 주의집중과 노력에 영향을 미쳐 개념변화를 일으키는 것으로 나타났다. 변칙사례에 의해 처음으로 유발되는 것은 새로움이며, 새로움은 직접적으로 또는 주의집중 요구, 탐구 의도, 순간적 즐거움을 경유하여 상황 흥미를 불러일으키는 것으로 나타났다. 새로움은 도전에 직접적인 영향을 주고, 도전은 직접적으로 또는 인지갈등을 통해 순간적 즐거움에 부정적인 영향을 줌으로써 전체 흥미를 감소시키기도 하였다. 그러나 이 경로의 계수는 전자의 경로의 계수보다 상대적으로 작았다. 이에 대한 교육적 함의를 논의하였다.

텍스트 마이닝 기법을 적용한 뉴스 데이터에서의 사건 네트워크 구축 (Construction of Event Networks from Large News Data Using Text Mining Techniques)

  • 이민철;김혜진
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.183-203
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    • 2018
  • 전통적으로 신문 매체는 국내외에서 발생하는 사건들을 살피는 데에 가장 적합한 매체이다. 최근에는 정보통신 기술의 발달로 온라인 뉴스 매체가 다양하게 등장하면서 주변에서 일어나는 사건들에 대한 보도가 크게 증가하였고, 이것은 독자들에게 많은 양의 정보를 보다 빠르고 편리하게 접할 기회를 제공함과 동시에 감당할 수 없는 많은 양의 정보소비라는 문제점도 제공하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 방대한 양의 뉴스기사로부터 데이터를 추출하여 주요 사건을 감지하고, 사건들 간의 관련성을 판단하여 사건 네트워크를 구축함으로써 독자들에게 현시적이고 요약적인 사건정보를 제공하는 기법을 제안하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 2016년 3월에서 2017년 3월까지의 한국 정치 및 사회 기사를 수집하였고, 전처리과정에서 NPMI와 Word2Vec 기법을 활용하여 고유명사 및 합성명사와 이형동의어 추출의 정확성을 높였다. 그리고 LDA 토픽 모델링을 실시하여 날짜별로 주제 분포를 계산하고 주제 분포의 최고점을 찾아 사건을 탐지하는 데 사용하였다. 또한 사건 네트워크를 구축하기 위해 탐지된 사건들 간의 관련성을 측정을 위하여 두 사건이 같은 뉴스 기사에 동시에 등장할수록 서로 더 연관이 있을 것이라는 가정을 바탕으로 코사인 유사도를 확장하여 관련성 점수를 계산하는데 사용하였다. 최종적으로 각 사건은 각의 정점으로, 그리고 사건 간의 관련성 점수는 정점들을 잇는 간선으로 설정하여 사건 네트워크를 구축하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 사건 네트워크는 1년간 한국에서 발생했던 정치 및 사회 분야의 주요 사건들이 시간 순으로 정렬되었고, 이와 동시에 특정 사건이 어떤 사건과 관련이 있는지 파악하는데 도움을 주었다. 또한 일련의 사건들의 시발점이 되는 사건이 무엇이었는가도 확인이 가능하였다. 본 연구는 텍스트 전처리 과정에서 다양한 텍스트 마이닝 기법과 새로이 주목받고 있는 Word2vec 기법을 적용하여 봄으로써 기존의 한글 텍스트 분석에서 어려움을 겪고 있었던 고유명사 및 합성명사 추출과 이형동의어의 정확도를 높였다는 것에서 학문적 의의를 찾을 수 있다. 그리고, LDA 토픽 모델링을 활용하기에 방대한 양의 데이터를 쉽게 분석 가능하다는 것과 기존의 사건 탐지에서는 파악하기 어려웠던 사건 간 관련성을 주제 동시출현을 통해 파악할 수 있다는 점에서 기존의 사건 탐지 방법과 차별화된다.

대규모 행사 이후 교통정체 해소방안 - 계룡대 장교 합동임관식 사례를 중심으로 - (The Traffic Congestion Solution after a Large Scale Event - Based on the Case of ROK Joint Officer Commissioning Ceremony -)

  • 장선기;박승환;정경원
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 대규모 행사 이후 발생하는 교통정체 문제를 계룡대 장교 합동임관식 행사를 중심으로 다루었으며, 문헌조사와 Arena를 활용한 분석을 통해 교통정체를 해소할 수 있는 개선방안을 제시하였다. 연구대상 행사는 매년 7,400여 대의 차량이 한정된 주차장과 도로로 유입되고, 행사 후에 동시 집중적으로 출차함에 따라 극심한 정체현상이 발생되고 있다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 주차장을 가용한 범위에서 분산 운용하고, 집중되는 차량 진출방향과 노선을 분산시키는 대안을 제시하였다. 그 결과 교통정체 시간이 150분에서 64분으로 86분 단축되었으며, 2017년 행사에 준용하여 교통정체 해소에 기여하였다.

대형 수소 액화 플랜트의 정량적 위험도 평가에 관한 연구 (Study on a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Large-scale Hydrogen Liquefaction Plant)

  • 도규형;한용식;김명배;김태훈;최병일
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.609-619
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    • 2014
  • In the present study, the frequency of the undesired accident was estimated for a quantitative risk assessment of a large-scale hydrogen liquefaction plant. As a representative example, the hydrogen liquefaction plant located in Ingolstadt, Germany was chosen. From the analysis of the liquefaction process and operating conditions, it was found that a $LH_2$ storage tank was one of the most dangerous facilities. Based on the accident scenarios, frequencies of possible accidents were quantitatively evaluated by using both fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. The overall expected frequency of the loss containment of hydrogen from the $LH_2$ storage tank was $6.83{\times}10^{-1}$times/yr (once per 1.5 years). It showed that only 0.1% of the hydrogen release from the $LH_2$ storage tank occurred instantaneously. Also, the incident outcome frequencies were calculated by multiplying the expected frequencies with the conditional probabilities resulting from the event tree diagram for hydrogen release. The results showed that most of the incident outcomes were dominated by fire, which was 71.8% of the entire accident outcome. The rest of the accident (about 27.7%) might have no effect to the population.

다중 난이도를 갖는 시각적 Oddball 작업 수행 시 사상관련전위의 독립요소분석 (Independent Component Analysis of the Event-Related Potential during Visual Oddball Tasks with Multiple Difficulty Levels)

  • 김자현;윤진;김경환
    • 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to observe the brain activity patterns during visual oddball tasks with two difficulty levels by the analysis of high-density event-related potential (ERP). Along with conventional statistical analysis of averaged ERP waveforms, we applied independent component analysis (ICA) for the individual, single-trial analysis and verified its effectiveness. We could identify multiple ERP components such as early visual components (P1, N1), and two components which seem to be important task-related components and showed difficulty-dependent variability (P2, P300). The P2 was found around central region at $180{\sim}220ms$, and the P300 was found globally at $300{\sim}500ms$ poststimulus. As the task became difficult, the P2 amplitude increased, and the P300 amplitude decreased. After single-trial ERPs were decomposed into multiple independent components (ICs), several ICs resulting from P2 and P300 sources were identified. These ICs were projected onto scalp electrodes and the projected ICs were statistically compared according to two task difficulties. For most subjects, the results obtained from single-trial/individual analysis using ICA gave the tendencies of amplitude change that are similar to the averaged ERP analysis for most subjects. The temporal pattern and number of ICs corresponding to ${\mu}$ rhythm was not dependent on the task difficulty. It seems that the motor response was not affected by the task difficulty.

Cavitation Mode Analysis of Pump Inducer

  • Lee, Seungbae;Jung, Keun-Hwa;Kim, Jin-Hwa;Kang, Shin-Hyoung
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • 제16권11호
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    • pp.1497-1510
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    • 2002
  • The onset of cavitation causes head and efficiency of a main pump to be reduced significantly and generates vibration and noise. In order to avoid these phenomena, the inlet of the pump is fitted with a special rotor called an inducer, which can operate satisfactorily with extensive cavitation. The motivation of this study is to find out cavitation modes from the inducer inlet pressure signals and event characteristics from outlet ones at various operating conditions. The cavitation modes are analyzed by using a cross-spectral density of fluctuating pressures at the inducer inlet. The time-frequency characteristics of wall pressures downstream of the inducer are presented in terms of event frequency, its duration time, and number of events by using the Choi-Williams distribution.

Analysis of MBLOCA and LBLOCA success criteria in VVER-1000/V320 reactors: New proposals for PSA Level 1

  • Elena Redondo-Valero;Cesar Queral;Kevin Fernandez-Cosials;Victor Hugo Sanchez-Espinoza
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.623-639
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    • 2023
  • The specific configuration of the safety systems in VVER-1000/V320 reactors allows a comprehensive study of the Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). In the present paper, a verification of the success criteria of the event trees headers for the medium and large break LOCA sequences is conducted. A detailed TRACEV5P5 thermal-hydraulic model of the reactor has been developed, including all safety systems. When analyzing the results of all sequences, some conservatism is observed in certain specific configurations as the success criterion of some headers is not consistent with the classic PSA level 1. Therefore, new proposals for the LOCA event trees are performed based on a reconfiguration of LOCA break ranges and the use of the expanded event trees approach.