• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
• /
• v.38 no.5
• /
• pp.11-25
• /
• 2018

The Ln-least method is commonly used to estimate the Weibull parameters from the observed wind speed data. In previous studies, the bin method has been used to calculate the cumulative frequency distribution for the Ln-least method. The purpose of this study is to obtain better performance in the Ln-least method by applying probability plotting position(PPP) instead of the bin method. Two types of the wind speed data were used for the analysis. One was the observed wind speed data taken from three sites with different topographical conditions. The other was the virtual wind speed data which were statistically generated by a random variable with known Weibull parameters. Also, ten types of PPP formulas were applied which were Hazen, California, Weibull, Blom, Gringorten, Chegodayev, Cunnane, Tukey, Beard and Median. In addition, in order to suggest the most suitable PPP formula for estimating Weibull parameters, two accuracy tests, the root mean square error(RMSE) and $R^2$ tests, were performed. As a result, all of PPPs showed better performances than the bin method and the best PPP was the Hazen formula. In the RMSE test, compared with the bin method, the Hazen formula increased estimation performance by 38.2% for the observed wind speed data and by 37.0% for the virtual wind speed data. For the $R^2$ test, the Hazen formula improved the performance by 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively. In addition, the performance of the PPP depended on the frequency of low wind speeds and wind speed variability.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.517-533
• /
• 2012

This study calculated wind speed at the height of 10 m using a disaster prediction model(Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, FPHLM) that was developed and used in the United States. Using its distributions, a usable information of surface wind was produced for the purpose of disaster prevention when the typhoon attack. The advanced research version of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) was used in this study, and two domains focusing on South Korea were determined through two-way nesting. A horizontal time series and vertical profile analysis were carried out to examine whether the model provided a resonable simulation, and the meteorological factors, including potential temperature, generally showed the similar distribution with observational data. We determined through comparison of observations that data taken at 700 hPa and used as input data to calculate wind speed at the height of 10 m for the actual terrain was suitable for the simulation. Using these results, the wind speed at the height of 10 m for the actual terrain was calculated and its distributions were shown. Thus, a stronger wind occurred in coastal areas compared to inland areas showing that coastal areas are more vulnerable to strong winds.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.351-366
• /
• 2016

Nowadays, wind energy is the most rapidly developing technology and energy source and it is reusable. Due to its cleanliness and reusability, there have been rapid developments made on transferring the wind energy systems to electric energy systems. Converting the wind energy to electrical energy can be done only with the wind turbines. So installing a wind turbine depends on the wind speed at that location. The expected wind power can be estimated using a perfect probability distribution. In this paper Weibull and Weibull distribution with multiple parameters has been used in deriving the mathematical expression for estimating the wind power. Statistically the parameters of Weibull and Weibull distribution are estimated using the maximum likelihood techniques. We derive a probability distribution for the power output of a wind turbine with given rated wind speeds for the regions where the wind speed histograms present a bimodal pdf and compute the first order moment of this distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.9-14
• /
• 2010

Recent increase in the strength and frequency of typoons due to climate change claims reconsideration of the design wind load in existing design codes for civil engineering structures in which the basic wind speed is estimated based on meteorological data by mid 1990s. In this paper, based on wind speed data at 76 observatories in Korea from 1961 through 2008, the basic wind speeds which can be utilized in designing civil engineering structures including buildings and bridges are estimated using the statistical process. The return period of the wind speed for each location is determined using the Gumbel distribution. The results for considered locations are compared to the existing design codes. Also, for design applications, the wind speed map, which classifies the country into four basic wind speed zones, is proposed using the resulting basic wind speeds.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2007.02a
• /
• pp.85-89
• /
• 2007

Data of the typhoon affecting Korean peninsula from 1951 to 2005 are obtained from the RSMC best track and six climatological characteristics of the typhoons are examined. Local wind speeds are obtained by the physical model for wind fields. Typhoons are generated by the Monte Carlo simulation and their wind speeds are distributed using Weibull CDF. Simulated typhoon wind speeds are used to obtain different wind speeds corresponding their mean recurrence intervals.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.64 no.1
• /
• pp.107-112
• /
• 2015

This paper introduces an evolutionary nonlinear regression based compensation technique for the short-range prediction of wind speed using AWS(Automatic Weather Station) data. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, but a linear regression based MOS is hard to manage an irregular nature of weather prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP(Genetic Programming) is suggested for a development of MOS wind forecast guidance. Also FCM(Fuzzy C-Means) clustering is adopted to mitigate bias of wind speed data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation by a GP based nonlinear MOS for 3 days prediction of wind speed in South Korean regions. This method is then compared to the UM model and has shown superior results. Data for 2007-2009, 2011 is used for training, and 2012 is used for testing.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2009.04a
• /
• pp.145-149
• /
• 2009

High-resolution atmospheric numerical system was set up to simulate the motion of the atmosphere and to produce the wind map on land. The results of several simulations were improved compare to the past system, because of using the fine geographical data, such as terrain height and land-use data, and the meteorological data assimilation. To estimate surface maximum wind speed when a typhoon is expected to strike the Korea peninsula, wind information at the upper level atmosphere was applied. Using 700hPa data, wind speed at the height of 300m was estimated, and surface wind speed was estimated finally considering surface roughness length. This study used formula from other countries and estimated RMW but RMW estimation formula apt to Korea should be developed for future.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.67-77
• /
• 2017

In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of flow around the Daeyeon automatic weather station (AWS 942) and established formulas estimating inflow wind speeds at a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model domain for the area around Pukyong national university using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Simulated wind directions at the AWS 942 were quite similar to those of inflows, but, simulated wind speeds at the AWS 942 decreased compared to inflow wind speeds except for the northerly case. The decrease in simulated wind speed at the AWS 942 resulted from the buildings around the AWS 942. In most cases, the AWS 942 was included within the wake region behind the buildings. Wind speeds at the inflow boundaries of the CFD model domain were estimated by comparing simulated wind speeds at the AWS 942 and inflow boundaries and systematically increasing inflow wind speeds from $1m\;s^{-1}$ to $17m\;s^{-1}$ with an increment of $2m\;s^{-1}$ at the reference height for 16 inflow directions. For each inflow direction, calculated wind speeds at the AWS 942 were fitted as the third order functions of the inflow wind speed by using the Marquardt-Levenberg least square method. Estimated inflow wind speeds by the established formulas were compared to wind speeds observed at 12 coastal AWSs near the AWS 942. The results showed that the estimated wind speeds fell within the inter quartile range of wind speeds observed at 12 coastal AWSs during the nighttime and were in close proximity to the upper whiskers during the daytime (12~15 h).

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.8-13
• /
• 2015

In this paper, a simple algorithm is proposed to estimate wind speed and direction which can significantly improve the landing performance of an unmanned parafoil. The proposed algorithm is applied to flight test data along with other known algorithms and the results are compared and discussed. The proposed algorithm shows comparable performance while it can still be applied to the parafoil under control.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.28 no.4A
• /
• pp.431-438
• /
• 2008

An updated Monte Carlo procedure for Typhoon simulation is presented to estimate the extreme wind speed at typhoon prone southern and western coasts in Korea. The reconstructed wind field model for typhoon in this study is compared with measured typhoon data for validation. The fitness of the proposed probability distribution models for typhoon parameters are tested by using data for the typhoon passed near the specific site. The simulated maximum wind speed associated with various return periods along southern and western coasts indicate that the extreme wind speed gradually increases inversely according to latitude of the coast, and that the basic wind speeds given in Korea Bridge Design Code are excessive compared with present results.