• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation error analysis

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Development of a Hydrograph Triggered by Earth-Dam-Break for Compiling a Flood Hazard Map (홍수위험지도 작성을 위한 댐 붕괴 지점에서의 유량곡선 산정)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sung-Wook;Yu, Soonyoung;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Jinwoo;Kim, Jin-Man
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 2013
  • In compiling flood hazard maps for the case of dam-failure, a scenario-based numerical modeling approach is commonly used, involving the modeling of important parameters that capture peak discharge, such as breach formation and progress. In this study, an earth-dam-break model is constructed assuming an identical mechanism and hydraulic process for all dam-break processes. A focus of the analysis is estimation of the hydrograph at the outlet as a function of time. The constructed hydrograph then serves as an upper boundary condition in running the flood routing model downstream, although flood routing is not considered here. Validation was performed using the record of the Tangjishan dam-break in China. The results were satisfactory, with a coefficient of determination of 0.974, Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSC) of 0.94, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of $610m^3/sec$. The proposed model will contribute to assessments of potential flood hazards caused by dam-break.

The Relationship between Parameters of the SWAT Model and the Geomorphological Characteristics of a Watershed (SWAT 모형의 매개변수와 유역의 지형학적 특성 관계)

  • Lee, Woong Hee;Lee, Ji Haeng;Park, Ji Hun;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2016
  • The correlation relationships and their corresponding equations between the geomorphological parameters and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model parameters by Sequential Uncertainty Fitting - version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm of SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) were developed at the Seom-river experimental watershed. The parameters of the SWAT model at the Soksa-river experimental watershed were estimated by the developed equations. The SWAT model parameters were estimated by SUFI-2 algorithm of SWAT-CUP with rainfall-runoff data from the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007. Rainfall-runoff simulation of the SWAT model was carried out at the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007 for the applicability of the estimated parameters by the developed equations. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between the observed and the simulated rainfall-runoffs using the estimated parameters by developed equations of correlation analysis and the optimum parameters by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP were $1.09m^3/s$ and $0.93m^3/s$ respectively at the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007. Therefore, it is considered that the parameter estimation of the SWAT model by the geomorphological characteristics parameters has applicability.

Nondestructive Estimation of Lean Meat Yield of South Korean Pig Carcasses Using Machine Vision Technique

  • Lohumi, Santosh;Wakholi, Collins;Baek, Jong Ho;Kim, Byeoung Do;Kang, Se Joo;Kim, Hak Sung;Yun, Yeong Kwon;Lee, Wang Yeol;Yoon, Sung Ho;Cho, Byoung-Kwan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.1109-1119
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we report the development of a nondestructive prediction model for lean meat percentage (LMP) in Korean pig carcasses and in the major cuts using a machine vision technique. A popular vision system in the meat industry, the VCS2000 was installed in a modern Korean slaughterhouse, and the images of half carcasses were captured using three cameras from 175 selected pork carcasses (86 castrated males and 89 females). The imaged carcasses were divided into calibration (n=135) and validation (n=39) sets and a multilinear regression (MLR) analysis was utilized to develop the prediction equation from the calibration set. The efficiency of the prediction equation was then evaluated by an independent validation set. We found that the prediction equation - developed to estimate LMP in whole carcasses based on six variables - was characterized by a coefficient of determination ($R^2_v$) value of 0.77 (root-mean square error [RMSEV] of 2.12%). In addition, the predicted LMP values for the major cuts: ham, belly, and shoulder exhibited $R^2_v$ values${\geq}0.8$ (0.73 for loin parts) with low RMSEV values. However, lower accuracy ($R^2_v=0.67$) was achieved for tenderloin cuts. These results indicate that the LMP in Korean pig carcasses and major cuts can be predicted successfully using the VCS2000-based prediction equation developed here. The ultimate advantages of this technique are compatibility and speed, as the VCS2000 imaging system can be installed in any slaughterhouse with minor modifications to facilitate the on-line and real-time prediction of LMP in pig carcasses.

Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

  • Kim, Sun-Young;Yi, Seon-Ju;Eum, Young Seob;Choi, Hae-Jin;Shin, Hyesop;Ryou, Hyoung Gon;Kim, Ho
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.29
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    • pp.12.1-12.8
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    • 2014
  • Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to $10{\mu}m$ in diameter ($PM_{10}$) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared ($R^2$) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and $66.0{\mu}g/m^3$ (standard deviation=2.40 and $9.51{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively). Cross-validated $R^2$ values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had $R^2$ values of zero. The national model produced a higher cross-validated $R^2$ (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate $PM_{10}$ source characteristics.

Autonomous Mobile Robot System Using Adaptive Spatial Coordinates Detection Scheme based on Stereo Camera (스테레오 카메라 기반의 적응적인 공간좌표 검출 기법을 이용한 자율 이동로봇 시스템)

  • Ko Jung-Hwan;Kim Sung-Il;Kim Eun-Soo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.1C
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    • pp.26-35
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, an automatic mobile robot system for a intelligent path planning using the detection scheme of the spatial coordinates based on stereo camera is proposed. In the proposed system, face area of a moving person is detected from a left image among the stereo image pairs by using the YCbCr color model and its center coordinates are computed by using the centroid method and then using these data, the stereo camera embedded on the mobile robot can be controlled for tracking the moving target in real-time. Moreover, using the disparity map obtained from the left and right images captured by the tracking-controlled stereo camera system and the perspective transformation between a 3-D scene and an image plane, depth information can be detected. Finally, based-on the analysis of these calculated coordinates, a mobile robot system is derived as a intelligent path planning and a estimation. From some experiments on robot driving with 240 frames of the stereo images, it is analyzed that error ratio between the calculated and measured values of the distance between the mobile robot and the objects, and relative distance between the other objects is found to be very low value of $2.19\%$ and $1.52\%$ on average, respectably.

An Estimation Model for the Replacement Parts based on the Operational Availability of Hi-Pass System (하이패스 운용가용도를 이용한 부품의 교체 추정 모델)

  • Hwang, Eui-duk;Heo, Seo Jeong;Kim, Chang Suk;Cheul, Son Dong
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2015
  • FTMS, TCS, ITS equipment such as high-pass highway are just a situation that does not lack traceability and passive surveillance is related to fault DB has so far consisted of an integrated operations management to maximize utilization of the facility. In addition, there is no replacement parts are replaced when a failure occurs, increasing the number of parts and repair time I have trouble growing, and becoming a service interruption whenever you replace each time. In this study, proactively manage the failure history of a highway facility ITS tries to preventive maintenance. Therefore, the error history is based on the reliability of the high-pass facilities theory to calculate the reliability of the system through a systematic statistical analysis Operational Availability. The fault number and the time the replacement period through the estimate decreases and can reduce the budget expenses by securing the spare parts quantity, establish a management plan in part by improving the quality of the system through constant preventive maintenance, quality of service at all times It may direct the non-stop operation state of the available state.

A Study on the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Korean Macro Economic Activities : An EGARCH and VECM Approach (국제유가의 변동성이 한국 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석 : EGARCH 및 VECM 모형의 응용)

  • Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

Sensitivity Analysis of Generalized Parameters on Concrete Creep Effects of Composite Section (합성단면의 콘크리트 크리프 효과에 대한 일반화 매개변수의 민감도 분석)

  • Yon, Jung-Heum;Kim, Eui-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.629-638
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, the existing formulas of the step-by-step method were generalized for effective estimation of responses of complicated composite sections due to long-term deformation of concrete. The initial transformed section properties of the composite section were derived from material and section properties of concrete section and sections which confine the longterm deformation of concrete. The transformed section properties at each step were derived from the effective modulus of elasticity considered the creep coefficient variation. Improved formulas of the step-by-step method for generalized responses were derived by introducing 5 generalized parameters. The formulas can be more simplified by applying constant increment of creep coefficient at each step. The constant increment of creep coefficient at each step can also reduce computing time and make equal computing error of each step. The generalized responses for axial elastic strain of concrete section were most sensitive to the area rate of concrete section, and the ratio of the second moment of the confining section area was more sensitive than that of the concrete section. Those for elastic curvature of concrete section were most sensitive to the ratio of the second moment of concrete section area.

Modeling Residual Chlorine and THMs in Water Distribution System (배급수계통에서 잔류염소 및 THMs 분포 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jae-Chan;Lee, Su-Won;Rho, Bang-Sik;Choi, Young-Jun;Choi, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyo-Il;Park, Tae-Jun;Park, Chang-Min;Park, Hyeon;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.706-714
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    • 2007
  • This study suggested a method for prediction of residual chlorine and THMs in water distribution system by measurement of residual chlorine, THMs, and other parameters, estimation of chlorine decay coefficients and THM formation coefficients, and simulation of water qualities using pipe network analysis. Bulk decay coefficients of parallel first-order were obtained by bottle tests, and pipe wall decay coefficients of first-order were estimated through evaluation of 5 models, which showed the lowest values of 0.03 for MAE(mean absolute error) and 0.037 MAE in comparison with the observed in field. And bottle tests were conducted to model first-order reaction of THM formation by nonlinear least square regression and the resultant coefficients were compared with the observed in field. As a result, the coefficients of determination$(R^2)$ for the observed and the predicted values were 0.98 in September and 0.82 in November, and the formation of THMs was predicted by modeling.

Performance Evaluation of Underwater Acoustic Communication in Frequency Selective Shallow Water (주파수 선택적인 천해해역에서 수중음향통신 성능해석)

  • Park, Kyu-Chil;Park, Jihyun;Lee, Seung Wook;Jung, Jin Woo;Shin, Jungchae;Yoon, Jong Rak
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2013
  • An underwater acoustic (UWA) communication in shallow water is strongly affected by the water surface and the seabed acoustical properties. Every reflected signal to receiver experiences a time-variant scattering in sea surface roughness and a grazing-angle-dependent reflection loss in bottom. Consequently, the performance of UWA communication systems is degraded, and high-speed digital communication is disrupted. If there is a dominant signal path such as a direct path, the received signal is modeled statistically as Rice fading but if not, it is modeled as Rayleigh fading. However, it has been known to be very difficult to reproduce the statistical estimation by real experimental evaluation in the sea. To give an insight for this scattering and grazing-angle-dependent bottom reflection loss effect in UWA communication, authors conduct experiments to quantify these effects. The image is transmitted using binary frequency shift keying (BFSK) modulation. The quality of the received image is shown to be affected by water surface scattering and grazing-angle-dependent bottom reflection loss. The analysis is based on the transmitter to receiver range and the receiver depth dependent image quality and bit error rate (BER). The results show that the received image quality is highly dependent on the transmitter-receiver range and receiver depth which characterizes the channel coherence bandwidth.