• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Unit

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A Study on Water Demand Forecasting Methods Applicable to Developing Country (개발도상국에 적용 가능한 물수요 예측 방법 연구)

  • Sung-Uk Kim;Kye-Won Jun;Wan-Seop Pi;Jong-Ho Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2023
  • Many developing countries face challenges in estimating long-term discharge due to the lack of hydrological data for water supply planning, making it difficult to establish a rational water supply plan for decision-making on water distribution. The study area, the Bandung region in Indonesia, is experiencing rapid urbanization and population concentration, leading to a severe shortage of freshwater. The absence of water reservoir prediction methods has resulted in a water supply rate of approximately 20%. In this study, we aimed to propose an approach for predicting water reservoirs in developing countries by analyzing water safety and potential water supply using the MODSIM (Modified SIMYLD) network model. To assess the suitability of the MODSIM model, we applied the unit hydrograph method to calculate long-term discharge based on 19 years of discharge data (2002-2020) from the Pataruman observation station. The analysis confirmed alignment with the existing monthly optimal operation curve. The analysis of power plant capacity revealed a difference of approximately 0.30% to 0.50%, and the water intake safety at the Pataruman point showed 1.64% for Q95% flow and 0.47% for Q355 flow higher. Operational efficiency, compared to the existing reservoir optimal operation curve, was measured at around 1%, confirming the potential of using the MODSIM network model for water supply evaluation and the need for water supply facilities.

Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

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Estimation of the Amount of Soil toss and Main Sources of Riverbed Sediments in Each Tributary Basin of the Seomjin River in Sunchang Area, Korea (순창지역 섬진강 지류별 토양유실량 산정과 하상퇴적물의 주공급원에 관한 고찰)

  • Kwak Jae-Ho;Yang Dong-Yoon;Lee Hyun-Koo;Kim Ju-Yong;Lee Seong-Gu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.6 s.175
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    • pp.607-622
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out in order to evaluate where the soil loss was mainly occurred, .and to verify how riverbed sediments in the tributaries of the Seomjin River were related to their source rocks distributed in Sunchang area. The study area including the Seomjin River with 4 tributaries of Kyeongcheon, Okgwacheon, Changjeong-cheon and Ipcheon was divided into 10 watershed. The RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) was estimated for all the grids (10 m cells) in the corresponding watershed. The amount of soil loss per unit area was calculated as follows: dry fold (53,140.94 tons/ha/year), orchard (25,063.38 tons/ha/year), paddy field (6,506.7 tons/ha/year) and Idlest (6,074.36 tons/ha/year). The differences of soil loss per unit area appear to be depends on areas described earlier. Soil erosion hazard zones were generally distributed within dry fields. Several thematic maps such as land use maps, topographical maps and soil maps were used as a data to generate the RUSLE factors. The amount of soil loss, computed by using the RUSLE, showed that soil loss mainly occurred at the regions where possible source rocks were distributed along the stream. Based on the this study on soil loss and soil erosion hazard zone together with chondrite-normalized REE patterns that were previously analyzed in same study area, a closed relationship between riverbed sediments and possible source rocks is formed. Especially in the Okgwacheon that are widely distributed by various rocks, chondrite-normalized REE pattern derived from the riverbed sediments, source rock and soil is expected to have a closed relationship with the distribution of soil loss.

Activity and Survival of the Natural Bacteria under the Stressed Conditions Detected by Bioluminescent Phenotype (스트레스 하의 자연세균의 활성 및 생존의 발광표현형을 이용한 탐지)

  • Park, Kyoung-Je;Yoon, Hye-Young;Chun, Se-Jin;Lee, Ho-Sa;Lee, Dong-Hun;Jahng, Deokjin;Lee, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.154-161
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    • 1998
  • To investigate whether the introduced genetic marker is useful to detect the survivalship and activity of the natural bacteria under the stressed conditions, one Gram-negative isolate, KP964 was transformed to the luminous phenotype by transferring luxAB gene. Under the starvation-stress this luminous bacterial culturability (determined by colony-forming-units [CFU] on agar plate) decreased rapidly below the detection limit by 37 days, while its total cell number (determined by AODC) remained almost the same as its initial inocular size. At that time period, the viable cell number was estimated to be 1400 times higher than its CFU number. The bioiuminescence (determined by relative light units [RLU]) produced under the same condition was also monitored and found to decrease more rapidly than the culturability by 5-fold. Under the other stresses, e.g., osmotic shocks, acid shock, and exposure to toxic chemicals, this bacterial strain did not show the reliable correlation between CFU and RLU. These results might not suggest the direct estimation of bioiuminescence from the stressed bacteria be an index of both the survivalship and its activity. However, when the stressed bacterial cells were incubated under the favorable condition by relieving from the existing stress, the potential bioiuminescence (the lag periods before the increase of bioiuminescence, the increase rates of bioiuminescence, and the maximal levels of bioiuminescence) was shown to be highly dependent upon the strengths of the stresses exposed to the bacterial cells. Therefore, analysis of the potential bioiuminescence from the stressed bacteria revealed good relationships with survival as well as activity.

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Study on the Heat Transfer Phenomenon around Underground Concrete Digesters for Bigas Production Systems (생물개스 발생시스템을 위한 지하매설콘크리트 다이제스터의 열전달에 관한 연구)

  • 김윤기;고재균
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 1980
  • The research work is concerned with the analytical and experimental studies on the heat transfer phenomenon around the underground concrete digester used for biogas production Systems. A mathematical and computational method was developed to estimate heat losses from underground cylindrical concrete digester used for biogas production systems. To test its feasibility and to evaluate thermal parameters of materials related, the method was applied to six physical model digesters. The cylindrical concrete digester was taken as a physical model, to which the model,atical model of heat balance can be applied. The mathematical model was transformed by means of finite element method and used to analyze temperature distribution with respect to several boundary conditions and design parameters. The design parameters of experimental digesters were selected as; three different sizes 40cm by 80cm, 80cm by 160cm and l00cm by 200cm in diameter and height; two different levels of insulation materials-plain concrete and vermiculite mixing in concrete; and two different types of installation-underground and half-exposed. In order to carry out a particular aim of this study, the liquid within the digester was substituted by water, and its temperature was controlled in five levels-35。 C, 30。 C, 25。 C, 20。C and 15。C; and the ambient air temperature and ground temperature were checked out of the system under natural winter climate conditions. The following results were drawn from the study. 1.The analytical method, by which the estimated values of temperature distribution around a cylindrical digester were obtained, was able to be generally accepted from the comparison of the estimated values with the measured. However, the difference between the estimated and measured temperature had a trend to be considerably increased when the ambient temperature was relatively low. This was mainly related variations of input parameters including the thermal conductivity of soil, applied to the numerical analysis. Consequently, the improvement of these input data for the simulated operation of the numerical analysis is expected as an approach to obtain better refined estimation. 2.The difference between estimated and measured heat losses was shown to have the similar trend to that of temperature distribution discussed above. 3.It was found that a map of isothermal lines drawn from the estimated temperature distribution was very useful for a general observation of the direction and rate of heat transfer within the boundary. From this analysis, it was interpreted that most of heat losses is passed through the triangular section bounded within 45 degrees toward the wall at the bottom edge of the digesten Therefore, any effective insulation should be considered within this region. 4.It was verified by experiment that heat loss per unit volume of liquid was reduced as the size of the digester became larger For instance, at the liquid temperature of 35˚ C, the heat loss per unit volume from the 0. 1m$^3$ digester was 1, 050 Kcal/hr m$^3$, while at for 1. 57m$^3$ digester was 150 Kcal/hr m$^3$. 5.In the light of insulation, the vermiculite concrete was consistently shown to be superior to the plain concrete. At the liquid temperature ranging from 15。 C to 350 C, the reduction of heat loss was ranged from 5% to 25% for the half-exposed digester, while from 10% to 28% for the fully underground digester. 6.In the comparison of heat loss between the half-exposed and underground digesters, the heat loss from the former was fr6m 1,6 to 2, 6 times as much as that from the latter. This leads to the evidence that the underground digester takes advantage of heat conservation during winter.

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An Experimental Study for Recycling of the Waste PET Bottle as a Fine Aggregate for Lightweight Concrete (폐 PET 병을 경량콘크리트용 잔골재로 재활용하기 위한 실험적 연구)

  • Choi Yun-Wang;Moon Dae-Joong;Jung Moon-Young;Cho Sun-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.16 no.1 s.79
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2004
  • The qualify of lightweight aggregate made from waste PET bottle(WPLA) and the workability, the unit weight and strength property of concrete with WPLA were investigated for the purpose of recycling the waste PET bottles as lightweight concrete fine aggregate. This study indicated a good result that WPLA should be replaced with less than $50\%$ of natural fine aggregate. When WPLA was replaced with $50\%$ of natural fine aggregate, the specific gravity and water absorption of mixed fine aggregate were greatly reduced about 23 and $75\%$ respectively in comparison with those of river sand. The quality of WPLA affected on the properties of lightweight aggregate concrete. The workability of fresh concrete with WPLA(WPLAC) was improved with increasing the replacement ratio of WPLA and water cement ratio. Slump increasing ratio of the former showed about $45 {\~} 120\%$ because that a specific gravity of fine aggregate was decreased from 2.6 to 1.7. The unit weight of concrete with $75\%$ WPLA was decreased about $17\%$ in comparison with that of control concrete. Furthermore, the compressive strength of concrete with 25 and $50 \%$ WPLA at the age of 28 days increased higher than 30 MPa regardless with water cement ratio (W/C=45, 49 and $53\%$) of this study. Specific strength of concrete with $25\%$ WPLA, $15.11{\times}10^3 MPa{\cdot}m^3/kg$, was higher than that of contro concrete in water cement ratio of $49\%$. The compressive strength-splitting tensile strength ratio and compressive strength-modulus of elasticity ratio of WPLAC were similar to that of nomal lightweight aggregate concrete. This results showed a good estimation that WPLA will be able to recycled as a fine aggregate for lightweight concrete.

A Knowledge-based Approach for the Estimation of Effective Sampling Station Frequencies in Benthic Ecological Assessments (지식기반적 방법을 활용한 저서생태계 평가의 유효 조사정점 개수 산정)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Jung, Hoe-In;Lee, Yong-Woo;Lee, Man-Woo;Lee, Chang-Gun;Jin, Sung-Ju;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Hong, Jae-Sang
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2011
  • Decision making in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Consultation on the Coastal Area Utilization (CCAU) is footing on the survey reports, thus requires concrete and accurate information on the natural habitats. In spite of the importance of reporting the ecological quality and status of habitats, the accumulated knowledge and recent techniques in ecology such as the use of investigated cases and indicators/indices have not been utilized in evaluation processes. Even the EIA report does not contain sufficient information required in a decision making process for conservation and development. In addition, for CCAU, sampling efforts were so limited that only two or a few stations were set in most study cases. This hampers transferring key ecological information to both specialist review and decision making processes. Hence, setting the effective number of sampling stations can be said as a prior step for better assessment. We introduced a few statistical techniques to determine the number of sampling stations in macrobenthos surveys. However, the application of the techniques requires a preliminary study that cannot be performed under the current assessment frame. An analysis of the spatial configuration of sampling stations from 19 previous studies was carried out as an alternative approach, based on the assumption that those configurations reported in scientific journal contribute to successful understanding of the ecological phenomena. The distance between stations and number of sampling stations in a $4{\times}4$ km unit area were calculated, and the medians of each parameter were 2.3 km, and 3, respectively. For each study, approximated survey area (ASA, $km^2$) was obtained by using the number of sampling stations in a unit area (NSSU) and total number of sampling stations (TNSS). To predict either appropriate ASA or NSSU/TNSS, we found and suggested statistically significant functional relationship among ASA, survey purpose and NSSU. This empirical approach will contribute to increasing sampling effort in a field survey and communicating with reasonable data and information in EIA and CCAU.

Developing Fire-Danger Rating Model (산림화재예측(山林火災豫測) Model의 개발(開發)을 위(爲)한 연구(硏究))

  • Han, Sang Yeol;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.80 no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 1991
  • Korea has accomplished the afforestation of its forest land in the early 1980's. To meet the increasing demand for forest products and forest recreation, a development of scientific forest management system is needed as a whole. For this purpose the development of efficient forestfire management system is essential. In this context, the purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation of forestfire danger rating system. In this study, it is hypothesized that the degree of forestfire risk is affected by Weather Factor and Man-Caused Risk Factor. (1) To accommodate the Weather Factor, a statistical model was estimated in which weather variables such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, duration of sunshine were included as independent variables and the probability of forestfire occurrence as dependent variable. (2) To account man-caused risk, historical data of forestfire occurrence was investigated. The contribution of man's activities make to risk was evaluated from three inputs. The first, potential risk class is a semipermanent number which ranks the man-caused fire potential of the individual protection unit relative to that of the other protection units. The second, the risk sources ratio, is that portion of the potential man-caused fire problem which can be charged to a specific cause. The third, daily activity level is that the fire control officer's estimate of how active each of these sources is, For each risk sources, evaluate its daily activity level ; the resulting number is the partial risk factor. Sum up the partial risk factors, one for each source, to get the unnormalized Man-Caused Risk. To make up the Man-Caused Risk, the partial risk factor and the unit's potential risk class were considered together. (3) At last, Fire occurrence index was formed fire danger rating estimation by the Weather Factors and the Man-Caused Risk Index were integrated to form the final Fire Occurrence Index.

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Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Estimation of Productivity and Organic Hanwoo Carrying Capacity per Unit Area of Whole Crop Wheat and Triticale by Application of Organic Fertilizer and Legumes-Mixed Sowing (유기질비료 시용과 콩과 사료작물의 혼파에 따른 총체밀과 트리트케일의 생산성과 단위면적당 유기 한우 사육능력 추정)

  • Jo, Ik-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.207-217
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to estimate organic Hanwoo carrying capacity when whole crop wheat and triticale as winter forage crops were grown on different applying sources (no fertilizer, organic fertilizer or cattle slurry), and mixed sowing in combination with hairy vetch and forage pea at the level of 50% cattle slurry application during the period of 2009~2011. The experimental plots were consisted of 5 treatments. Each treatment was triplicates and allocated in the randomized complete block design. For whole crop wheat, annual mean dry matter (DM) yield was significantly (P<0.05) higher for fertilizer application treatments than for no fertilizer treatment, and crude protein (CP) yield was significantly (P<0.05) higher for forage pea and hairy vetch-mixed sowing treatments than for no fertilizer and organic ferilizer treatments. Mean CP, total digestible nutrients (TDN) and relative feed value (RFV) contents of legumes-mixed sowing treatments was significantly (P<0.05) higher than those of other treatments. As diets replaced with 70% whole crop wheat were provided for 450kg of Hanwoo heifers, legumes-mixed sowing treatments could raise more heifers than organic fertilizer and no fertilizer treatments. For triticale, annual mean DM, CP and TDN yields were significantly (P<0.05) higher for fertilizer application treatments than for no fertilizer treatment, and CP content of legumes-mixed sowing and cattle slurry application treatments was significantly (P<0.05) higher than that of other treatments. When 450kg of Hanwoo heifers were fed on diets replaced with 70% triticale, it was estimated that legumes-mixed sowing treatments at the level of 50% cattle slurry application could rear average 3.3~3.4 heads/ha/year, which was significantly (P<0.05) higher than no fertilizer treatment (2.5 heads/ha/year). It was indicated that DM yields of whole crop wheat and triticale were much more effective in cattle slurry application than organic fertilizer, and Legumes-mixed sowing at the level of 50% cattle slurry application rather than whole crop wheat or triticale alone increased yields per unit area and nutritional value such as CP content. In conclusion, it is conceived that whole crop wheat or triticale produced in the manner above can be used instead of grains imported as dietary protein sources in the organic Hanwoo feeding regimen.