• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Models

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Development of a Biophysical Rice Yield Model Using All-weather Climate Data (MODIS 전천후 기상자료 기반의 생물리학적 벼 수량 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Jihye;Seo, Bumsuk;Kang, Sinkyu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.5_2
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    • pp.721-732
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    • 2017
  • With the increasing socio-economic importance of rice as a global staple food, several models have been developed for rice yield estimation by combining remote sensing data with carbon cycle modelling. In this study, we aimed to estimate rice yield in Korea using such an integrative model using satellite remote sensing data in combination with a biophysical crop growth model. Specifically, daily meteorological inputs derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution imaging Spectroradiometer) and radar satellite products were used to run a light use efficiency based crop growth model, which is based on the MODIS gross primary production (GPP) algorithm. The modelled biomass was converted to rice yield using a harvest index model. We estimated rice yield from 2003 to 2014 at the county level and evaluated the modelled yield using the official rice yield and rice straw biomass statistics of Statistics Korea (KOSTAT). The estimated rice biomass, yield, and harvest index and their spatial distributions were investigated. Annual mean rice yield at the national level showed a good agreement with the yield statistics with the yield statistics, a mean error (ME) of +0.56% and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.73%. The estimated county level yield resulted in small ME (+0.10~+2.00%) and MAE (2.10~11.62%),respectively. Compared to the county-level yield statistics, the rice yield was over estimated in the counties in Gangwon province and under estimated in the urban and coastal counties in the south of Chungcheong province. Compared to the rice straw statistics, the estimated rice biomass showed similar error patterns with the yield estimates. The subpixel heterogeneity of the 1 km MODIS FPAR(Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) may have attributed to these errors. In addition, the growth and harvest index models can be further developed to take account of annually varying growth conditions and growth timings.

A Study on the Structural Characteristics and Estimation of Refrigerating. Load for the Fruit Storage (청과물저장고의 구조특성 및 냉각부하량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • 이석건;고재군
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.4038-4051
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    • 1976
  • This study was intended to provide the basic design creteria for the refrigerated storage, and to estimate the required optimum capacity of refrigerator for the different sizes and kinds of the existing fruit storage. The structural characteristics of the existing fruit storages in Pyungtaek-khun of Kyungki-do were surveyed. The average out-door air temperature during the expected storage life after harvesting, was obtained by analyzing the weather information. The heat transfer rates through the different models of storage walls were estimated. The refrigerating load required for different models of fruit storage was analyzed in the basis of out-door air temperature. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. The fruit storages surveyed were constructed on-ground, under-ground and sub-ground type buildings. The majority of them being the on-ground buildings are mostly made of earth bricks with double walls. Rice hull was mostly used as the insulating materials for their walls and ceilings. About 42% of the buildings were with the horizontal ceiling, 22% with sloped ceiling, and about 36% without ceiling. About 60% of the storage buildings had floor without using insulated material. They were made of compacted earth. 2. There is no difference in heat transfer among six different types of double walls. The double wall, however, gives much less heat transfer than the single wall. Therefore, the double wall is recommended as the walls of the fruit storage on the point of heat transfer. Especially, in case of the single wall using concrete, the heat transfer is about five time of the double walls. It is evident that concrete is not proper wall material for the fruit storage without using special insulating material. 3. The heat transfer through the storage walls is in inverse proportion to the thickness of rice hull which is mostly used as the insulating material in the surveyed area. It is recommended that the thickness of rice hull used as the insulating material far storage wall is about 20cm in consideration of the decreasing rate of heat transfer and the available storage area. 4. The design refrigerating load for the on-ground storages having 20 pyung area is estimated in 4.07 to 4.16 ton refrigeration for double walls, and 5.23 to 6.97 ton refrigeration for single walls. During the long storage life, however, the average daily refrigerating load is ranged from 0.93 to 0.95 ton refrigeration for double walls, and from 1.15 to 1.47 ton refrigeration for single walls, respectively. 5. In case of single walls, 50.8 to 61.4 percent to total refrigerating load during the long storage life is caused by the heat transferred into the room space through walls, ceiling and floor. On the other hand, 39.1 to 40.7 percent is for the double walls. 6. The design and average daily refrigerating load increases in linear proportion to the size of storage area. As the size increases, the increasing rate of the refrigerating load is raised in proportion to the heat transfer rate of the wall. 7. The refrigerating load during the long storage life has close relationship to the out-door air temperature. The maximum refrigeration load is shown in later May, which is amounted to about 50 percent to the design refrigerating load. 8. It is noted that when the wall material having high heat transfer rate, such as the single wall made of concrete, is used, heating facilities are required for the period of later December to early February.

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Estimation of Primal Cuts Yields by Using Body Size Traits in Hanwoo Steer (한우 후대검정우의 체척형질을 통한 부분육 생산량 추정)

  • Lee, Jae Gu;Lee, Seung Soo;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Cho, Chungil;Choy, Yun Ho;Choi, Jae Gwan;Park, Byoungho;Na, Chong Sam;Roh, Seung Hee;Do, Changhee;Choi, Taejeong
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 2013
  • The study aimed to develop prediction models of primal cut yield using body measurements of Hanwoo steers in Korea. The progeny of 874 steers at Hanwoo Improvement Main Center from 2008 to 2010 were recorded. Pearson's correlation coefficients for primal cuts and other traits were estimated. Primal cuts were adjusted for slaughter date and age using the SAS GLM procedure. Afterwards, a stepwise regression was performed on each primal cut by fitting body measurement traits. An independent covariable was selected at the highest coefficient of determination with the greater fitness model using Mallows's Cp statistic. Results showed that primal cuts were significantly influenced by slaughter date (P<0.01). The age at slaughter, however, was only significant for the top round (P<0.05). There was a moderate to high correlation between chest girth and tenderloin (0.54), loin (0.74), and rib (0.80). Most primal cut percentages were negatively related to BFT. Similar negative to low positive correlations were observed for primal cut percentage and body size traits. In addition, a correlation of 0.21 was observed between rib percentage and chest girth. The regression of body measurements on the adjusted primal cuts were significant for later traits. Regression estimates revealed that wither height, body length, rump length, hip bone width, and chest girth are important for primal cut weight and percentage determination. In particular, chest girth was always important for primal cut weight estimates.

The Heterogeneity of Flow Distribution and Partition Coefficient in [15O-H2O] Myocardium Positron Emission Tomography ([15O-H2O] 심근 양전자 단층 촬영에서 혈류 분포의 비균일성과 분배계수)

  • Ahn, Ji Young;Lee, Dong Soo;Kim, Kyung Min;Jeong, Jae Min;Chung, June-Key;Shin, Seung-Ae;Lee, Myung Chul;Koh, Chang-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.32-49
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    • 1998
  • For estimation of regional myocardial blood flow with O-15 water PET, a few modifications considering partial volume effect based on single compartment model have been proposed. In this study, we attempted to quantify the degree of heterogeneity and to show the effect of tissue flow heterogeneity on partition coefficient(${\lambda}$) and to find the relation between perfusable tissue index(PTI) and ${\lambda}$ by computer simulation using two modified models. We simulated tissue curves for the regions with homogeneous and heterogeneous blood flow over a various flow range(0.2-4.0ml/g/min). Simulated heterogeneous tissue composed of 4 subregions of the same or different size of block which have different homogeneous flow and different degree of slope of distribution of blood flow. We measured the index representing heterogeneity of distribution of blood flow for each heterogeneous tissue by the constitution heterogeneity(CH). For model I, we assumed that tissue recovery coefficient ($F_{MME}$) was the product of partial volume effect($F_{MMF}$) and PTI. Using model I, PTI, flow, and $F_{MM}$ were estimated. For model II, we assumed that partition coefficient was another variable which could represent tissue characteristics of heterogeneity of flow distribution. Using model II, PTI, flow and ${\lambda}$ were estimated. For the simulated tissue with homogeneous flow, both models gave exactly the same estimates, of three parameters. For the simulated tissue with heterogeneous flow distribution, in model I, flow and $F_{MM}$ were correctly estimated as CH was increased moderately. In model II, flow and ${\lambda}$ were decreased curvi-linearly as CH was increased. The degree of underestimation of ${\lambda}$ obtained using model II, was correlated with CH. The degree of underestimation of flow was dependent on the degree of underestimation of ${\lambda}$. PTI was somewhat overestimated and did not change according to CH. We conclude that estimated ${\lambda}$ reflect the degree of tissue heterogeneity of flow distribution. We could use the degree of underestimation of ${\lambda}$ to find the characteristic heterogeneity of tissue flow and use ${\lambda}$ to recover the underestimated flow.

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Estimation of Long-term Water Demand by Principal Component and Cluster Analysis and Practical Application (주성분분석과 군집분석을 이용한 장기 물수요예측과 활용)

  • Koo, Ja-Yong;Yu, Myung-Jin;Kim, Shin-Geol;Shim, Mi-Hee;Akira, Koizumi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.8
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    • pp.870-876
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    • 2005
  • The multiple regression models which have two factors(population and commercial area) have been used to forecast the water demand in the future. But, the coefficient of population had a negative value because proper regional classification wasn't performed, and it is not reasonable because the population must be a positive factor. So, the regional classification was performed by principal component and cluster analysis to solve the problem. 6 regional characters were transformed into 4 principal components, and the areas were divided into two groups according to cluster analysis which had 4 principal components. The new regression models were made by each group, and the problem was solved. And, the future water demands were estimated by three scenarios(Active, moderate, and passive one). The increase of water demand ore $89.034\;m^3/day$ in active plat $49,077\;m^3/day$ in moderate plan, and $19,996\;m^3/day$ in passive plan. The water supply ability as scenarios is enough in water treatment plant, however, 2 reservoirs among 4 reservoirs don't have enough retention time in all scenarios.

Agroclimatology of North Korea for Paddy Rice Cultivation: Preliminary Results from a Simulation Experiment (생육모의에 의한 북한지방 시ㆍ군별 벼 재배기후 예비분석)

  • Yun Jin-Il;Lee Kwang-Hoe
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.47-61
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    • 2000
  • Agroclimatic zoning was done for paddy rice culture in North Korea based on a simulation experiment. Daily weather data for the experiment were generated by 3 steps consisting of spatial interpolation based on topoclimatological relationships, zonal summarization of grid cell values, and conversion of monthly climate data to daily weather data. Regression models for monthly climatological temperature estimation were derived from a statistical procedure using monthly averages of 51 standard weather stations in South and North Korea (1981-1994) and their spatial variables such as latitude, altitude, distance from the coast, sloping angle, and aspect-dependent field of view (openness). Selected models (0.4 to 1.6$^{\circ}C$ RMSE) were applied to the generation of monthly temperature surface over the entire North Korean territory on 1 km$\times$l km grid spacing. Monthly precipitation data were prepared by a procedure described in Yun (2000). Solar radiation data for 27 North Korean stations were reproduced by applying a relationship found in South Korea ([Solar Radiation, MJ m$^{-2}$ day$^{-1}$ ] =0.344 + 0.4756 [Extraterrestrial Solar Irradiance) + 0.0299 [Openness toward south, 0 - 255) - 1.307 [Cloud amount, 0 - 10) - 0.01 [Relative humidity, %), $r^2$=0.92, RMSE = 0.95 ). Monthly solar irradiance data of 27 points calculated from the reproduced data set were converted to 1 km$\times$1 km grid data by inverse distance weighted interpolation. The grid cell values of monthly temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation were summed up to represent corresponding county, which will serve as a land unit for the growth simulation. Finally, we randomly generated daily maximum and minimum temperature, solar irradiance and precipitation data for 30 years from the monthly climatic data for each county based on a statistical method suggested by Pickering et a1. (1994). CERES-rice, a rice growth simulation model, was tuned to accommodate agronomic characteristics of major North Korean cultivars based on observed phenological and yield data at two sites in South Korea during 1995~1998. Daily weather data were fed into the model to simulate the crop status at 183 counties in North Korea for 30 years. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to score the suitability of the county for paddy rice culture.

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Development of a TBM Advance Rate Model and Its Field Application Based on Full-Scale Shield TBM Tunneling Tests in 70 MPa of Artificial Rock Mass (70 MPa급 인공암반 내 실대형 쉴드TBM 굴진실험을 통한 굴진율 모델 및 활용방안 제안)

  • Kim, Jungjoo;Kim, Kyoungyul;Ryu, Heehwan;Hwan, Jung Ju;Hong, Sungyun;Jo, Seonah;Bae, Dusan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2020
  • The use of cable tunnels for electric power transmission as well as their construction in difficult conditions such as in subsea terrains and large overburden areas has increased. So, in order to efficiently operate the small diameter shield TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the estimation of advance rate and development of a design model is necessary. However, due to limited scope of survey and face mapping, it is very difficult to match the rock mass characteristics and TBM operational data in order to achieve their mutual relationships and to develop an advance rate model. Also, the working mechanism of previously utilized linear cutting machine is slightly different than the real excavation mechanism owing to the penetration of a number of disc cutters taking place at the same time in the rock mass in conjunction with rotation of the cutterhead. So, in order to suggest the advance rate and machine design models for small diameter TBMs, an EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM having 3.54 m diameter cutterhead was manufactured and 19 cases of full-scale tunneling tests were performed each in 87.5 ㎥ volume of artificial rock mass. The relationships between advance rate and machine data were effectively analyzed by performing the tests in homogeneous rock mass with 70 MPa uniaxial compressive strength according to the TBM operational parameters such as thrust force and RPM of cutterhead. The utilization of the recorded penetration depth and torque values in the development of models is more accurate and realistic since they were derived through real excavation mechanism. The relationships between normal force on single disc cutter and penetration depth as well as between normal force and rolling force were suggested in this study. The prediction of advance rate and design of TBM can be performed in rock mass having 70 MPa strength using these relationships. An effort was made to improve the application of the developed model by applying the FPI (Field Penetration Index) concept which can overcome the limitation of 100% RQD (Rock Quality Designation) in artificial rock mass.

A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

Estimation of the Optimum Number of Machines and Equipments for Professional Dairy Farm (낙농 전업농의 기계장치 최적 규모 추정)

  • 유병기;이용범;장진택;이동현;권두중;기광석;성시흥;이대원
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 1996
  • A survey was conducted for dairy farmer to estimate the optimum number of machine and equipment in 1994. Labor hours, operation costs and operation methods for each dairy processing were investigated and analyzed for the farmers to find the expected numbers of machine and equipment on the basis of the desired farm scale. And also, the estimated models were compared and analyzed with the conventional models which more than half dairy farmers used bucket milker in tie stall barn. Some of the results are as follows : 1. Analysis results of conventional model showed that a dairy farm could raise to 15 heads of dairy cow with family labor of 1.5 men, labor hours of 2, 700 in you and total operation costs of 734 thousand won per head. 2. The result, used in conjunction with minimum operation costs in tie stall barn, showed that 28 dairy cows could be raised by using concentrates feeding by hoppers, water supply by water cups, milking by pipeline milker, and manure cleaning by barn cleaner with total operation costs of 520 thousands won per head. 3. The total operation costs of a loose barn system is higher than those of tie stall barn system to raise about 30 heads. For the loose barn system, the herringbone parlour was used for milking, concentrate feeding by automatic concentrate feeder, water supply by thermal insulation feeder, and manure cleaning by scraper with total operation costs of 582 thousands won per head every year.

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Estimation of sediment deposition rate in collapsed reservoirs(wetlands) using empirical formulas and multiple regression models (경험공식 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 붕괴 저수지(습지) 비퇴사량 추정)

  • Kim, Donghyun;Lee, Haneul;Bae, Younghye;Joo, Hongjun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.287-295
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    • 2021
  • As facilities such as dam reservoir wetlands and agricultural irrigation reservoir wetlands are built, sedimentation occurs over time through erosion, sedimentation transport, and sediment deposition. Sedimentation issues are very important for the maintenance of reservoir wetlands because long-term sedimentation of sediments affects flood and drought control functions. However, research on resignation has been estimated mainly by empirical formulas due to the lack of available data. The purpose of this study was to calculate and compare the sediment deposition rate by developing a multiple regression model along with actual data and empirical formulas. In addition, it was attempted to identify potential causes of collapse by applying it to 64 reservoir wetlands that suffered flood damage due to the long rainy season in 2020 due to reservoir wetland sedimentation and aging. For the target reservoir, 10 locations including the GaGog reservoir located in Miryang city, Gyeongsangnam province in South Korea, where there is actual survey information, were selected. A multiple regression model was developed in consideration of physical and climatic characteristics, and a total of four empirical formulas and sediment deposition rate were calculated. Using this, the error of the sediment deposition rate was compared. As a result of calculating the sediment deposition rate using the multiple regression model, the error was the lowest from 0.21(m3km2/yr) to 2.13(m3km2/yr). Therefore, based on the sediment deposition rate estimated by the multi-regression model, the change in the available capacity of reservoir wetlands was analyzed, and the effective storage capacity was found to have decreased from 0.21(%) to 16.56(%). In addition, the sediment deposition rate of the reservoir where the overflow damage occurred was relatively higher than that of the reservoir where the piping damage occurred. In other words, accumulating sediment deposition rate at the bottom of the reservoir would result in a lack of acceptable effective water capacity and reduced reservoir flood and drought control capabilities, resulting in reservoir collapse damage.