• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• v.4 no.6
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• pp.12-19
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary conditions in various failure pressure models published for the estimation of failure pressure. Furthermore, this approach is extended to the failure prediction with the aid of a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect in buried pipelines for long exposure period with unit of years. A failure probability model based on the von-Mises failure criterion is adapted. The log-normal and standard normal probability functions for varying random variables are adapted. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically investigated for the corrosion pipeline by using an adapted failure probability model and varying failure pressure model.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.147-161
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• 2008

In this paper, fine attitude estimation using low-cost sensors for attitude pointing missions of spacecraft is addressed. Attitude kinematics and gyro models including bias models are in general utilized to estimate spacecraft attitude and angular rate. However, a linearized model and a transition matrix are derived in this paper from nonlinear spacecraft dynamics with external disturbances. A Kalman filtering technique is applied and offers relatively high estimation accuracy under dynamic uncertainties. The proposed approach is demonstrated using numerical simulations.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.258-258
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• 2012

In frequency analyses of hydrological data, it is necessary for the interested variables to be homogenous and independent. However, recent evidences have shown that the occurrence of extreme hydro-meteorological events is influenced by large-scale climate variability, and the assumption of homogeneity does not generally hold anymore. Therefore, in order to associate the non-homogenous characteristics of hydro-meteorological variables, we propose the parameter estimation method of probability models using meta-heuristic algorithms, specifically harmony search. All the weather stations in South Korea were employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approaches. The results showed that the proposed parameter estimation method using harmony search is a comparativealternative for the probability distribution of the non-homogenous hydro-meteorological variables data.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.293-301
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• 2001

This paper reviews three methods to compute a pointwise confidence interval of neuro-fuzzy models and compares their estimation perfonnanee through simulations. The eOITl.putation methods under consideration include stacked generalization using cross-validation, predictive error bar in regressive models, and local reliability measure for the networks employing a local representation scheme. These methods implemented on the neuro-fuzzy models are applied to the problems of simple function approximation and chaotic time series prediction. The results of reliability estimation are compared both quantitatively and qualitatively.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.52 no.5
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• pp.1-9
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• 2010

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the basic components of the hydrologic cycle and is essential for estimating irrigation water requirements. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) models for reference crop evapotranspiration ($ET_0$) estimation were developed on a monthly basis (May~October). The models were trained and tested for Suwon, Korea. Four climate factors, daily maximum temperature ($T_{max}$), daily minimum temperature ($T_{min}$), rainfall (R), and solar radiation (S) were used as the input parameters of the models. The target values of the models were calculated using Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation. Future climate data were generated using LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator), stochastic weather generator, based on HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A1B scenario. The evapotranspirations were 549.7 mm/yr in baseline period (1973-2008), 558.1 mm/yr in 2011-2030, 593.0 mm/yr in 2046-2065, and 641.1 mm/yr in 2080-2099. The results showed that the ANN models achieved good performances in estimating future reference crop evapotranspiration.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.89-97
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• 2007

Simple regression models for pollutants load estimation of paddy developed by the Ministry of Environment in 1995 were tested with the data (T-N, T-P, $COD_{Mn}$, and SS) collected from Yeongsan and Seomjin river watersheds, and improvement measures were suggested. Overall, the simulated values showed a great difference from the measured values except for T-P according to the statistical analyses (RMSE, root mean square error; RMAE, root mean absolute error; RB, relative bias; EI, efficiency index). Such difference was assumed due to the fact that the models use only hydrologic factors (quantity factor) associated with precipitation and run-off as input parameters, but do not consider other factors which are likely to affect pollutant concentration (quality factor) including days after fertilization. In addition, in terms of accessibility of the models, some parameters in the models such as run-off depth and run-off amount which can not be obtained from the weather database but should be collected by on-site measurements need to be replaced with other variables.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.337-350
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• 2013

The sensitivity of compressive strength of no-slump concrete to its ingredient materials and proportions, necessitate the use of robust models to guarantee both estimation and generalization features. It was known that the problem of compressive strength prediction owes high degree of complexity and uncertainty due to the variable nature of materials, workmanship quality, etc. Moreover, using the chemical and mineral additives, superimposes the problem's complexity. Traditionally this property of concrete is predicted by conventional linear or nonlinear regression models. In general, these models comprise lower accuracy and in most cases they fail to meet the extrapolation accuracy and generalization requirements. Recently, artificial intelligence-based robust systems have been successfully implemented in this area. In this regard, this paper aims to investigate the use of optimized support vector machine (SVM) to predict the compressive strength of no-slump concrete and compare with optimized neural network (ANN). The results showed that after optimization process, both models are applicable for prediction purposes with similar high-qualities of estimation and generalization norms; however, it was indicated that optimization and modeling with SVM is very rapid than ANN models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.895-906
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• 2015

Diffusion is a mathematical tool to explain the fluctuation of financial assets and the movement of particles in a micro time scale. There are ongoing statistical trials to develop an estimation method for diffusion models based on likelihood. When we estimate diffusion models by applying the maximum likelihood estimation method on data observed at discrete time points, we need to know the transition density of the diffusion. In order to approximate the transition densities of diffusion models, we suggests the method to approximate the path integral of the random process with normal random variables, and compare the numerical properties of the method with other approximation methods.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.6B
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• pp.399-406
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• 2012

The objective of this research is to develop greenhouse gas generation models and estimation method of their parameters for solid waste landfills. Two models obtained by differentiating the Modified Gompertz and Logistic models were employed to evaluate two parameters of a first-order decay model, methane generation potential ($L_0$) and methane generation rate constant (k). The parameters were determined by the statistical comparison of predicted gas generation rate data using the two models and actual landfill gas collection data. The values of r-square obtained from regression analysis between two data showed that one model by differentiating the Modified Gompetz was 0.92 and the other model by differentiating the Logistic was 0.94. From this result, the estimation methods showed that $L_0$ and k values can be determined by regression analysis if landfill gas collection data are available. Also, new models based on two models obtained by differentiating the Modified Gompertz and Logistic models were developed to predict greenhouse gas generation from solid waste landfills that actual landfill generation data could not be available. They showed better prediction than LandGEM model. Frequency distribution of the ratio of Qcs (LFG collection system) to Q (prediction value) was used to evaluate the accuracy of the models. The new models showed higher accuracy than LandGEM model. Thus, it is concluded that the models developed in this research are suitable for the prediction of greenhouse gas generation from solid waste landfills.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.223-236
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• 2016

The objective of this study was to construct Italian ryegrass (IRG) dry matter yield (DMY) estimation models in South Korea based on climatic data by locations. Obviously, the climatic environment of Jeju Island has great differences with Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, many data points were from Jeju Island in the prepared data set. Statistically significant differences in both DMY values and climatic variables were observed between south areas of Korean Peninsula and Jeju Island. Therefore, the estimation models were constructed separately for south areas of Korean Peninsula and Jeju Island separately. For south areas of Korean Peninsula, a data set with a sample size of 933 during 26 years was used. Four optimal climatic variables were selected through a stepwise approach of multiple regression analysis with DMY as the response variable. Subsequently, via general linear model, the final model including the selected four climatic variables and cultivated locations as dummy variables was constructed. The model could explain 37.7% of the variations in DMY of IRG in south areas of Korean Peninsula. For Jeju Island, a data set containing 130 data points during 17 years were used in the modeling construction via the stepwise approach of multiple regression analysis. The model constructed in this research could explain 51.0% of the variations in DMY of IRG. For the two models, homoscedasticity and the assumption that the mean of the residuals were equal to zero were satisfied. Meanwhile, the fitness of both models was good based on most scatters of predicted DMY values fell within the 95% confidence interval.