• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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Comparison of Benefit Estimation Models in Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Case of Chronic Hypertension Management Programs

  • Lim, Ji-Young;Kim, Mi-Ja;Park, Chang-Gi;Kim, Jung-Yun
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.750-757
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Cost-benefit analysis is one of the most commonly used economic evaluation methods, which helps to inform the economic value of a program to decision makers. However, the selection of a correct benefit estimation method remains critical for accurate cost-benefit analysis. This paper compared benefit estimations among three different benefit estimation models. Methods: Data from community-based chronic hypertension management programs in a city in South Korea were used. Three different benefit estimation methods were compared. The first was a standard deterministic estimation model; second, a repeated-measures deterministic estimation model; and third, a transitional probability estimation model. Results: The estimated net benefit of the three different methods were $1,273.01, $-3,749.42, and $-5,122.55 respectively. Conclusion: The transitional probability estimation model showed the most correct and realistic benefit estimation, as it traced possible paths of changing status between time points and it accounted for both positive and negative benefits.

A methodology to extract landuse properties in urban areas and its application using GIS (GIS를 이용한 도시유역 토지이용특성 추출과 활용방안)

  • Shin, Min-Chul;Jun, Hwan-Don;Park, Moo-Jong
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02a
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    • pp.207-210
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    • 2007
  • The accurate estimation of the area of individual landuse in each subbasin is crutial. However, because of the complication in landuse of an urban watershed, it is almost impossible to estimate the area of individual landuse in each subbasin by manual ways. For this reason, in this study, a systematic methodology is suggested to estimate individual landuse area of each subbasin using GIS. To construct data for applying GIS, CAD data including sewer layout and landuse are collected and converted into the GIS data such as shape files. An urban watershed, then, is divided into subbasins with respect to sewer layout and landuse. For each subbasin, the area of individual landuse including road areas are estimated by applying several GeoProcessing functions. The proposed methodology is applied to the Goon-Ja watershed in Seoul to demonstrate its applicability and it is concluded that the proposed methodology can estimate individual landuse properties efficiently and accurately.

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On Teaching of Computer-Software Field Using Smoothing Methodology (평활 방법론이 적용될 수 있는 컴퓨터-소프트웨어 교육분야 제안)

  • Lee Seung-Woo
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2006
  • We investigate the mathematical background, statistical methodology, and the teaching of computer-software field using smoothing methodology in this paper. Also we investigate conception and methodology of histogram, kernel density estimator, adaptive kernel estimator, bandwidth selection based on mathematics and statistics.

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Windborne debris risk analysis - Part I. Introduction and methodology

  • Lin, Ning;Vanmarcke, Erik
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.191-206
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    • 2010
  • Windborne debris is a major cause of structural damage during severe windstorms and hurricanes owing to its direct impact on building envelopes as well as to the 'chain reaction' failure mechanism it induces by interacting with wind pressure damage. Estimation of debris risk is an important component in evaluating wind damage risk to residential developments. A debris risk model developed by the authors enables one to analytically aggregate damage threats to a building from different types of debris originating from neighboring buildings. This model is extended herein to a general debris risk analysis methodology that is then incorporated into a vulnerability model accounting for the temporal evolution of the interaction between pressure damage and debris damage during storm passage. The current paper (Part I) introduces the debris risk analysis methodology, establishing the mathematical modeling framework. Stochastic models are proposed to estimate the probability distributions of debris trajectory parameters used in the method. It is shown that model statistics can be estimated from available information from wind-tunnel experiments and post-damage surveys. The incorporation of the methodology into vulnerability modeling is described in Part II.

Detector Evaluation Scheme Including the Concept of Confidence Interval in Statistics (통계적 신뢰구간 개념을 도입한 검지기 성능평가)

  • Jang, Jin-Hwan;Kim, Byung-Hwa
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a new test technique for evaluating performance of vehicle detectors with interval estimation, not the conventional point estimation, for presenting statistical confidence interval. The methodology is categorized into three parts; sampling plan, analysis on the characteristic of evaluation indices, and the expression of evaluation results. Even though many statistical sampling plans exist, stratified random sampling is regarded as the most appropriate one, considering the detector performance characteristics that varies with traffic, illumination, and meteorological conditions. No magic bullet exists for evaluation index for detector evaluation, hence the characteristics of evaluation indices were thoroughly analyzed and a reasonable process for choosing the best evaluation index is proposed. Finally, the methodology to express the result of detector evaluation for the entire evaluation period and individual analysis interval is represented, respectively. To overcome the existing drawbacks in point estimation, interval estimation by which statistical confidence interval can be represented is introduced for enhancing statistical reliability of traffic detector evaluation. This research can make vehicle detector scheme improve one step forward.

Demand Estimation Methodology for a New Air Route (신규 항공노선에 대한 수요 예측 모델 연구)

  • Choi, Jong Haea;Yoo, Kwang Yui;Lee, Sang Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 2015
  • A network connectivity has been regarded as a key element to strengthen a business competitive power in the aviation industry, so many airport authorities try to attract the new airlines and scheme out new air routes. With this trend, a study for an induced travel demand estimation methodology is needed. This study introduces a demand estimation method, especially for a new air route to a promising destination. With the results of previous studies, the derived demand is classified into four types - Local, Beyond, Behind and Bridge. The explanatory variables are established for each type of demand and the main independent variables are composed of distance, ratio of detour, and relative capacity compared with other airports. The equations using such variables and statistically significant coefficients are suggested as the model to make an estimation of derived demand for a new route. Therefore this study will be expected to take an initial step for all related parties to be involved more deeply into developing new air routes to enhance network connectivity.

Problems in methodology for estimating cost of milk production and its improvement (우유생산비 조사 및 계산상의 문제점과 합리화방안 연구)

  • Chun, Ryong;Seo, Seong-Won;Park, Jong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.227-242
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    • 2012
  • Accurate estimation of milk production cost is very important for dairy farmers in establishing strategies for business management (e.g. planning a program for milk production, deciding the size of business and investment, determining the milk price for sale). Since the estimated cost of milk production is used as an important index to determine the basal price of milk in Korea, there has been much interest and debate on the method used to estimate milk production cost among the stakeholder. This study was thus carried out to identify problems in the current methodology for estimating cost of milk production, and to find a better way to improve it. We propose several alternatives and better ways to improve the current method for estimating cost of milk production. Estimation of the income and cost per head should be based on the number of cattle converted to grown cows. Cost estimation per liter of milk should be made for both whole milk and 3.4% milk fat corrected milk. The value of purchased cows and raised replacement heifers should be the same as their market value. The productive life span of cows should be less 4 years, and the terminal or salvage value of cows needs to be 30 to 40% less than her initial value. When calculating depreciation of cows over the productive life span, however, the salvage value should be 0 or 1 Korean won. On calculating labor costs, the farm labor wage corresponding to the average wage of nonfarm industrial workers should be assumed. Beside of these, better estimation procedures for other items are also given. The proposed methods from this study should improve the accuracy of estimation of milk production cost and help to achieve consensus among the stakeholder.

A Study on Damage Detection of Production Riser (생산 라이저의 손상 탐지에 대한 연구)

  • Je, Hyun-Min;Park, Soo-Yong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.179-184
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to provide appropriate methodology to ensure the safety and integrity of the production riser in offshore structure. In order to select integrity estimation methodology for production riser, level I and II Non-destructive Damage Evaluation (NDE) methods that were applied to existing structures are classified and reviewed. Numerical analysis is performed to verify the applicability and capability on damage detection of reviewed methods. As a result, the damage detection methodology using modal strain energy is more sensitive in detection of the damage than other methods. In practice, the number of sensors is limited due to the environmental and financial conditions. The impact on damage detection performance by reducing the number of sensors is systematically investigated through a series of numerical analyses and the results are discussed. The optimal number of sensor for the integrity estimation of production riser is recommended.

Development and Application of Carbon Emissions Estimation Methodology During the Life Cycle of Road (도로의 전과정 탄소배출량 산정방법 개발 및 적용)

  • Kwak, In-Ho;Park, Kwang-Ho;Hwang, Young-Woo;Park, Ji-Hyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.382-390
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    • 2012
  • Global warming has been hot issue world wide. Korea has been dealing with the global issue under the slogan of low carbon and green-growth such as setting national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and allocation to each industrial sector. Infrastructure construction, in which enormous social overhead capital (SOC) is input, has great role as one of the actions. Road is one of the representative infrastructure and large amount of resources is utilized in its construction, operation and maintenance stage. The estimation methodology of life cycle carbon emissions was developed and applied to a case study of highway currently under construction in this study. Also, total carbon emissions of all the highway in South Korea at present (2009) and cumulative carbon emissions from 2009 to 2020 were estimated using the results of case study.