• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.151-167
• /
• 2004

Traditional traffic forecast has employed regression analysis or time-series analysis based on past trends of explanatory variables. However, not existing but planned port facilities do not have historical data for traffic estimation. Consequently, arbitrary traffic allocation has been subject to researcher's intuition. In this paper, container throughput at New Incheon Outer-South Port will be estimated using stated preference(SP) and sample enumeration methodology on the basis of survey data about the choice behaviors of port users in a theoretical situation. In the SP survey, shippers, freight forwarders and carriers were required to answer a choice between two alternative ports: Busan and Incheon. Although total 27 scenarios of questionnaires were constructed with 3 levels of 3 explanatory variables, each interviewee was asked to answer for just 9 scenarios chosen at random. A binary choice logit model was applied to the survey data. The elasticity of travel time is estimated to be very high, implying that building New Incheon Outer-South Port could be effective in relieving the congestion of the Kyungin corridor. The analysis result shows that increasing service level at Incheon Port would bring in the substantial diversion of container cargo in the Capital region to Incheon Port from Busan Port.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.40 no.2
• /
• pp.57-65
• /
• 2016

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.478-485
• /
• 2018

Aids to Navigation (AtoN) is one of the marine traffic safety facilities that promotes the safety of maritime traffic and enhance ship's operational efficiency. However, functional failure of AtoN due to ship's collision or bad weather conditions leads to inconvenience or navigational risk to various users such as the ship operators. For insstance, the largest container port in Korea, Busan Port has experienced a total of 400 AtoN accidents in the past 12 years (2006-2017).Therefore, an average of 20.6 days of recovery time is required, which increases the maritime safety anxiety for AtoN users. is the objective of this study was to present the quantitative support of the users for the prevention of AtoN accidents and the improvement of the feasibility of implementing more efficient management in Korea. A survey was conducted on the users of Busan port areas to investigate general perception of AtoN in general and the accidents that have happened, and to estimate the economic value of navigational risk reduction by implementing effective AtoN management measure. Using the representative non-market valuation method for environmental or public goods known as contingent valuation method (CVM), the economic value granted to users for the AtoN services in Busan port was estimated to at least 16 billion won. Therefore, these finding could be used by AtoN managers and/or policy makers as a valuable data to identify the users' need of various AtoN services including Busan Port and to establish and implement more efficient management plan.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.31 no.3 s.119
• /
• pp.205-212
• /
• 2007

Due to the construction of Incheon Grand Bridge, there is driven a necessity for rearranging the function of Inner Port with the development of Outer South Port. In this paper, I'd like to simulate the port operation levels of Lock Gate in Inner Port with estimating the traffic volumes of 2011 and 2015, which will reveal the Demurrage Cost and the Accumulation Cost of Freight in Inner Port. Finally I will evaluate the economic movement effects of the container ship's calling from Inner port to South Port/Outer South Port from 2011 to 2015. The results are as followings ; (1) The average utilization of Lock Gates are reduced by $7\sim8$ percentage point. (2) The mean queueing value are saved by 25 percentage point. (3) The Demurrage Cost and the Accumulation Cost of Freight except Lock Gate charges and the Benefit of Routeing Reduction are saved about 800 million Won annually.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.41-46
• /
• 2011

The port of Busan is the fifth busiest container port in the world in terms of total mass of 20-foot equivalent units transported. Yet no attempts have been made to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the port of Busan by accounting for all port-related activities of the various transportation modes. With these challenges in mind, this study estimates the first activity-based GHG emissions inventory in the port of Busan, which consists of four transportation modes: marine vessels, cargo-handling equipment, heavy-duty trucks, and railroad locomotives. The estimation results based on the most recent and complete port-related activity data are as follows. First, the average annual transportation GHG emission in the port of Busan during the analysis period from 2000 to 2007 was 802 Gg $CO_2$-eq, with a lower value of 773 Gg $CO_2$-eq and an upper value of 813 Gg $CO_2$-eq. Second, the increase in the transportation-related GHG emissions in the port of Busan during the analysis period can be systematically explained by the amount of cargo handled ($R^2$=0.98). Third, about 64% of total GHG emissions in the port of Busan were from marine vessels because more than 40% of all maritime containerized trade flows in the port were transshipment traffic. Fourth, approximately 22% of the total GHG emissions in the port of Busan were from on-road or railroad vehicles, which transport cargo to and from the port of Busan. Finally, the remaining 14% of total GHG emissions were from the cargo handling equipment, such as cranes, yard tractors, and reach stackers.