• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimates

Search Result 6,478, Processing Time 0.041 seconds

Estimation of Genetic Variations and Selection of Superior Lines from Diallel Crosses in Layer Chicken (산란계종의 잡종강세 이용을 위한 유전학적 기초연구와 우량교배조합 선발에 관한 연구)

  • 오봉국;한재용;손시환;박태진
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-14
    • /
    • 1986
  • The subject of this study was to obtain some genetic information for developing superior layer chickens. Heterosis and combining ability effects were estimated with 5,759 progenies of full diallel crosses of 6 strains in White Leghorn. Fertility, hatchability, brooder-house viability, rearing- house viability, laying-house viability, age at 1st egg laying, body weight at 1st egg laying, average egg weight, hen-day egg production, hen-housed egg production, and feed conversion were investigated and analyzed into heterosis effect, general combining ability, specific combining ability and reciprocal effect by Grilling's model I. The results obtained were summarized as follows; 1. The general performance of each traits was 94.76% in fertility, 74.05% in hatchability, 97.47% in brooder-house viability, 99.72% in rearing-house viability, 93.81% in laying-house viability, 150 day in the age at 1st egg laying, 1,505g in the body weight at 1st egg laying, 60.08g in average egg weight, 77.11% in hen-day egg production, 269.8 eggs in hen-housed egg Production, and 2.44 in feed conversion. 2. The heterosis effects were estimated to -0.66%, 9.58%, 0.26%, 1.83%, -3.87%, 3.63%, 0.96%, 4.23%, 6.4%, and -0.8%, in fertility, hatchability, brooder-house viability, laying-house viability, the age at 1st egg laying, the body weight at 1st egg laying, average egg weight, hen-day egg Production, hen-housed egg production and feed conversion, respectively. 3. The results obtained from analysis of combining ability were as follows ; 1) Estimates of general combining ability, specific combining ability and reciprocal effects were not high in fertility. It was considered that fertility was mainly affected by environmental factors. In the hatchability, the general combining ability was more important than specific combining ability and reciprocal effects, and the superior strains were K and V which the additive genetic effects were very high. 2) In the brooder-house viability and laying-house viability, specific combining ability and reciprocal effects appeared to be important and the combinations of K${\times}$A and A${\times}$K were very superior. 3) In the feed conversion and average egg weight, general combining ability was more important compared with specific combining ability and reciprocal effects. On the basis of combining ability the superior strains were F, K and B in feed conversion, F and B in the average egg weight. 4) General combining ability, specific combining ability and reciprocal effects were important in the age at 1st egg laying and the combination of V ${\times}$F, F${\times}$K and B${\times}$F were very useful on the basis of these effects. In the body weight at 1st egg laying, general combining ability was more important than specific combining ability and reciprocal effects, relatively. The K, F and E strains were recommended to develop the light strain in the body weight at 1st egg laying. 5) General combining ability, specific combining ability and reciprocal effects were important in the hen-day egg production and hen-housed egg production. The combinations of F${\times}$K, A${\times}$K, and K${\times}$A were proper for developing these traits. 4. In general, high general combining ability effects were estimated for hatchability, body weight at 1st egg laying, average egg weight, hen-day egg production, hen-housed egg production, and feed conversion and high specific combining ability effects for brooder-house viability, laying house viability, age at 1st egg laying, hen-day egg production and hen-housed egg production, and high reciprocal effects for the age at 1st egg laying.

  • PDF

A Model for Health Promoting Behaviors in Late-middle Aged Woman (중년후기 여성의 건강증진행위 모형구축)

  • Park, Chai-Soon
    • Women's Health Nursing
    • /
    • v.2 no.2
    • /
    • pp.298-331
    • /
    • 1996
  • Recent improvements in living standard and development in medical care led to an increased interest in life expectancy and personal health, and also led to a more demand for higher quality of life. Thus, the problem of women's health draw a fresh interest nowadays. Since late-middle aged women experience various physical and socio-psychological changes and tend to have chronic illnesses, these women have to take initiatives for their health control by realizing their own responsibility. The basic elements for a healthy life of these women are understanding of their physical and psychological changes and acceptance of these changes. Health promoting behaviors of an individual or a group are actions toward increasing the level of well-being and self-actualization, and are affected by various variables. In Pender's health promoting model, variables are categorized into cognitive factors(individual perceptions), modifying factors, and variables affecting the likelihood for actions, and the model assumes the health promoting behaviors are affected by cognitive factors which are again affected by demographic factors. Since Pender's model was proposed based on a tool broad conceptual frame, many studies done afterwards have included only a limited number of variables of Pender's model. Furthermore, Pender's model did not precisely explain the possibilities of direct and indirect paths effects. The objectives of this study are to evaluate Pender's model and thus propose a model that explains health promoting behaviors among late-middle aged women in order to facilitate nursing intervention for this group of population. The hypothetical model was developed based on the Pender's health promoting model and the findings from past studies on women's health. Data were collected by self-reported questionnaires from 417 women living in Seoul, between July and November 1994. Questionnaires were developed based on instruments of Walker and others' health promotion lifestyle profile, Wallston and others' multidimensional health locus of control, Maoz's menopausal symptom check list and Speake and others' health self-rating scale. IN addition, items measuring self-efficacy were made by the present author based on past studies. In a pretest, the questionnaire items were reliable with Cronbach's alpha ranging from .786 to .934. The models for health promoting behaviors were tested by using structural equation modelling technique with LISREL 7.20. The results were summarized as follows : 1. The overall fit of the hypothetical model to the data was good (chi-square=4.42, df=5, p=.490, GFI=.995, AGFI=.962, RMSR=.024). 2. Paths of the model were modified by considering both its theoretical implication and statistical significance of the parameter estimates. Compared to the hypothetical model, the revised model has become parsimonious and had a better fit to the data (chi-square =4.55, df=6, p=.602, GFI=.995, AGFI=.967, RMSR=.024). 3. The results of statistical testing were as follows : 1) Family function internal health locus of control, self-efficacy, and education level exerted significant effects on health promoting behaviors(${\gamma}_{43}$=.272, T=3.714; ${\beta}_[41}$=.211, T=2.797; ${\beta}_{42}$=.199, T=2.717; ${\gamma}_{41}$=.136, T=1.986). The effect of economic status, physical menopausal symptoms, and perceived health status on health promoting behavior were insignificant(${\gamma}_{42}$=.095, T=1.456; ${\gamma}_{44}$=.101, T=1.143; ${\gamma}_{43}$=.082, T=.967). 2) Family function had a significance direct effect on internal health locus of control (${\gamma}_{13}$=.307, T=3.784). The direct effect of education level on internal health locus of control was insignificant(${\gamma}_{11}$=-.006, T=-.081). 3) The directs effects of family functions & internal health locus of control on self-efficacy were significant(${\gamma}_{23}$=.208, T=2.607; ${\beta}_{21}$=.191, T=2.2693). But education level and economic status did not exert a significant effect on self-efficacy(${\gamma}_{21}$=.137, T=1.814; ${\beta}_{22}$=.137, T=1.814; ${\gamma}_{22}$=.112, T=1.499). 4) Education level had a direct and positive effect on perceived health status, but physical menopausal symptoms had a negative effect on perceived health status and these effects were all significant(${\gamma}_{31}$=.171, T=2.496; ${\gamma}_{34}$=.524, T=-7.120). Internal health locus and self-efficacy had an insignificant direct effect on perceived health status(${\beta}_{31}$=.028, T=.363; ${\beta}_{32}$=.041, T=.557). 5) All predictive variables of health promoting behaviors explained 51.8% of the total variance in the model. The above findings show that health promoting behaviors are explained by personal, environmental and perceptual factors : family function, internal health locus of control, self-efficacy, and education level had stronger effects on health promoting behaviors than predictors in the model. A significant effect of family function on health promoting behaviors reflects an important role of the Korean late-middle aged women in family relationships. Therefore, health professionals first need to have a proper evaluation of family function in order to reflect the family function style into nursing interventions and development of strategies. These interventions and strategies will enhance internal health locus of control and self-efficacy for promoting health behaviors. Possible strategies include management of health promoting programs, use of a health information booklets, and individual health counseling, which will enhance internal health locus of control and self-efficacy of the late-middle aged women by making them aware of health responsibilities and value for oneself. In this study, an insignificant effect of physical menopausal symptoms and perceived health status on health promoting behaviors implies that they are not motive factors for health promoting behaviors. Further analytic researches are required to clarify the influence of physical menopausal symptoms and perceived health status on health promoting behaviors with-middle aged women.

  • PDF

Methods for Integration of Documents using Hierarchical Structure based on the Formal Concept Analysis (FCA 기반 계층적 구조를 이용한 문서 통합 기법)

  • Kim, Tae-Hwan;Jeon, Ho-Cheol;Choi, Joong-Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.63-77
    • /
    • 2011
  • The World Wide Web is a very large distributed digital information space. From its origins in 1991, the web has grown to encompass diverse information resources as personal home pasges, online digital libraries and virtual museums. Some estimates suggest that the web currently includes over 500 billion pages in the deep web. The ability to search and retrieve information from the web efficiently and effectively is an enabling technology for realizing its full potential. With powerful workstations and parallel processing technology, efficiency is not a bottleneck. In fact, some existing search tools sift through gigabyte.syze precompiled web indexes in a fraction of a second. But retrieval effectiveness is a different matter. Current search tools retrieve too many documents, of which only a small fraction are relevant to the user query. Furthermore, the most relevant documents do not nessarily appear at the top of the query output order. Also, current search tools can not retrieve the documents related with retrieved document from gigantic amount of documents. The most important problem for lots of current searching systems is to increase the quality of search. It means to provide related documents or decrease the number of unrelated documents as low as possible in the results of search. For this problem, CiteSeer proposed the ACI (Autonomous Citation Indexing) of the articles on the World Wide Web. A "citation index" indexes the links between articles that researchers make when they cite other articles. Citation indexes are very useful for a number of purposes, including literature search and analysis of the academic literature. For details of this work, references contained in academic articles are used to give credit to previous work in the literature and provide a link between the "citing" and "cited" articles. A citation index indexes the citations that an article makes, linking the articleswith the cited works. Citation indexes were originally designed mainly for information retrieval. The citation links allow navigating the literature in unique ways. Papers can be located independent of language, and words in thetitle, keywords or document. A citation index allows navigation backward in time (the list of cited articles) and forwardin time (which subsequent articles cite the current article?) But CiteSeer can not indexes the links between articles that researchers doesn't make. Because it indexes the links between articles that only researchers make when they cite other articles. Also, CiteSeer is not easy to scalability. Because CiteSeer can not indexes the links between articles that researchers doesn't make. All these problems make us orient for designing more effective search system. This paper shows a method that extracts subject and predicate per each sentence in documents. A document will be changed into the tabular form that extracted predicate checked value of possible subject and object. We make a hierarchical graph of a document using the table and then integrate graphs of documents. The graph of entire documents calculates the area of document as compared with integrated documents. We mark relation among the documents as compared with the area of documents. Also it proposes a method for structural integration of documents that retrieves documents from the graph. It makes that the user can find information easier. We compared the performance of the proposed approaches with lucene search engine using the formulas for ranking. As a result, the F.measure is about 60% and it is better as about 15%.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.135-149
    • /
    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Phenotypic Correlation between Carcass Traits and Serum Profiles taken Before and After Slaughter of Hanwoo Bulls and Steers (가축에서 시기별 혈액 성분과 도체 형질에 대한 표현형 상관에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon G. J.;Choy Y. H.;Cho K. H.;Kim M. J.;Kim H. C.;Choi J. G.;Lee C. W.;Hwang J. M.;Kim J. B.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-253
    • /
    • 2005
  • Serum concentrations of Hanwoo steers and bulls as possible indicators of beef quality were analyzed to estimate their correlations with carcass traits. Blood samples were taken 2 months and right before shipping to abattoir and at the time of slaughter. And phenotypic correlation coefficients between serum concentrations and carcass traits were estimated. Beef yield index of steers was positively correlated with serum concentrations of total Protein (0.23), albumin (0.26), and calcium (0.31). But it was negatively co..elated with BUN (-0.30). Loin eye area was positively correlated with BUN (0.17) or with globulin (0.16). Back fat thickness was positively correlated with BUN (0.42) and inorganic phosphorus (0.20) being negatively correlated with total protein (-0.23), albumin (-0.33) and calcium (-0.33). Marbling score in the scale of 1 (scarcely marbled) through 9 (extremely marbled) was positively correlated with BUN (0.28) and negatively with IGF-I and calcium concentrations. Phenotype correlation coefficient of loin eye area with total protein concentration in the serum taken from steers right before shipment was estimated to be -0.16 and that with BUN was estimated to be -0.15. Serum concentrations of IGF, glucose, creatinine and on organic phosphorus from steers measured right before shipment were negatively correlated with respective correlation coefficient estimates as -0.21, -0.21, -0.19 and -0.18. Marbling score was negatively co..elated with serum creatinine (-0.16) measured at that time. Beef yield index of steers was positively correlated (0.31) with age adjusted calcium concentration in the serum taken at the time of slaughter. Correlation between body weight and BUN at slaughter was 0.17 At slaughter, loin eye area was negatively correlated with albumin (-0.19) and back fat thickness was also negatively correlated with age adjusted calcium concentration (-0.38). Marbling was negatively correlated with age adjusted calcium concentration(-0.17). Serum concentrations of testosterone, calcium and inorganic phosphorus taken in 2 months before slaughter were negatively but highly correlated with yield index(0.71, 0.67 and -0.71), respectively. Body weight at slaughter was positively was negatively correlated (0.67) with calcium level while dressing percentage was negatively (-0.69) correlated with serum glucose concentration, 2 months prior to slaughter. Correlation coefficients between back fat thickness and cortisol, between back fat thickness and inorganic phosphate were both positive (0.29 and 0.69). Marbling score was negatively correlated with creatinine (-0.81) and positively with BUN (0.87). Body weight loss during shipping was positively correlated with albumin and inorganic phosphate (0.77, 0.83). Yield index of bulls was positively correlated with serum testosterone concentration (0.66). Dressing percentage was positively and highly correlated with globulin (0.73). Back fat thickness of bulls, however, was negatively correlated with testosterone (-0.60). Loin eye area of bull carcasses was positively correlated with testosterone (0.40). Mar-blaine was negatively co..elated with creatinine (-0.55). Yield index of bulls and age adjusted HDLC concentration at slaughter was negatively correlated (-0.71). Dressing percentage of bulls was positively and highly correlated with globulin concentration (0.70). Back fat thickness was also positively correlated with HDLC (0.69) in the serum taken at slaughter. Correlation coefficients between carcass weight and triglyceride, between loin eye are and testosterone and between marbling score and creatinine or glucose were 0.51, -0.91 and -0.58, respectively.

Inhomogeneity correction in on-line dosimetry using transmission dose (투과선량을 이용한 온라인 선량측정에서 불균질조직에 대한 선량 보정)

  • Wu, Hong-Gyun;Huh, Soon-Nyung;Lee, Hyoung-Koo;Ha, Sung-Whan
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.139-147
    • /
    • 1998
  • Purpose: Tissue inhomogeneity such as lung affects tumor dose as well as transmission dose in new concept of on-line dosimetry which estimates tumor dose from transmission dose using the new algorithm. This study was carried out to confirm accuracy of correction by tissue density in tumor dose estimation utilizing transmission dose. Methods: Cork phantom (CP, density $0.202\;gm/cm^3$) having similar density with lung parenchyme and polystyrene phantom (PP, density $1.040\;gm/cm^3$) having similar density with soft tissue were used. Dose measurement was carried out under condition simulating human chest. On simulating AP-PA irradiation, PPs with 3 cm thickness were placed above and below CP, which had thickness of 5, 10, and 20 cm. On simulating lateral irradiation, 6 cm thickness of PP was placed between two 10 cm thickness CPs additional 3 cm thick PP was placed to both lateral sides. 4, 6, and 10 MV x-ray were used. Field size was in the range of $3{\times}3$ cm through $20{\times}20$ cm, and phantom-chamber distance (PCD) was 10 to 50 cm. Above result was compared with another sets of data with equivalent thickness of PP which was corrected by density. Result: When transmission dose of PP was compared with equivalent thickness of CP which was corrected with density, the average error was 0.18 (${\pm}0.27$) % for 4 MV, 0.10 (${\pm}0.43$) % for 6 MV, and 0.33 (${\pm}0.30$) % for 10 MV with CP having thickness of 5 cm. When CP was 10 cm thick, the error was 0.23 (${\pm}0.73$) %, 0.05 (${\pm}0.57$) %, and 0.04 (${\pm}0.40$) %, while for 20 cm, error was 0.55 (${\pm}0.36$) %, 0.34 (${\pm}0.27$) %, and 0.34 (${\pm}0.18$) % for corresponding energy. With lateral irradiation model, difference was 1.15 (${\pm}1.86$) %, 0.90 (${\pm}1.43$) %, and 0.86 (${\pm}1.01$) % for corresponding energy. Relatively large difference was found in case of PCD having value of 10 cm. Omitting PCD with 10 cm, the difference was reduced to 0.47 (${\pm}$1.17) %, 0.42 (${\pm}$0.96) %, and 0.55 (${\pm}$0.77) % for corresponding energy. Conclusion When tissue inhomogeneity such as lung is in tract of x-ray beam, tumor dose could be calculated from transmission dose after correction utilizing tissue density.

  • PDF

Economic Sanction and DPRK Trade - Estimating the Impact of Japan's Sanction in the 2000s - (대북 경제제재와 북한무역 - 2000년대 일본 대북제재의 영향력 추정 -)

  • Lee, Suk
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.32 no.2
    • /
    • pp.93-143
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

  • PDF

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.19-32
    • /
    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Heritabilities and Genetic Correlations on Egg Compositions in Layers (난용계의 난구함분에 관한 유전력 및 유전상관)

  • 상병찬;한성욱;정선부
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.83-89
    • /
    • 1989
  • This study was conducted to estimate heritabilities, genetic and phenotypic correlations on egg compositions in layers. The data analysis were a total of 6,097 eggs in S. C. W. Leghorn and R. I. Red from March 1, 1980 to July 31, 1981. The results obtained are summarized as follows; 1. The average albumen weight at first egg, 300 and 500 days of age were 28.67, 36.25 and 37.51g in the S. C. W. Leghorn, and 28.95, 36.01 and 36.85g in the R. I. Red, respectively. The yolk weigh at first egg ,300 and 500 days were 9.21, 15.94 and17.86g in the S. C. W. Leghorn,9.46, 16.43 and 18.54g in the R. I. Red, respectively. The shell weight at first egg, 300 and 500 days were 4.04, 5.39 and 5.40g in the S. C. W. Leghorn, and 3.66, 5.13 and 5.28g, respectively. 2. The heritability estimates based on the variance of sire and dam components were 0.631-0.164 and 0.412-0.496 in the S. C. W. Leghorn,0.234-0.563 and 0.477-0.610 in the R. I. Red for albumen weight; 0.213-0.530 and 0.343-0.613 in the S. C. W. Leghorn, 0.253-0.437 and 0.389-0.477 in the R. I. Red for yolk weight; 0.427-0.602 and 0.336-0.409 in the S. C. W. Leghorn, 0.141-0.281 in the R. I. Red for shell weight, respectively. 3. The genetic correlation coefficients of egg compositions were as follows; In the S. C. W. Leghorn and R. I. Red, the coefficients between albumen weight and yolk weight, 0.082-0.339 and 0.142-0.465; between albumen weight and shell weight, 0.674-0.952 and 0.216-0.546; between yolk weight and shell weight,0.173-0.171 and 0.121-0.749, respectively.

  • PDF

Effects of insulin and IGF on growth and functional differentiation in primary cultured rabbit kidney proximal tubule cells - Effects of IGF-I on Na+ uptake - (초대배양된 토끼 신장 근위세뇨관세포의 성장과 기능분화에 대한 insulin과 IGF의 효과 - Na+ uptake에 대한 IGF-I의 효과 -)

  • Han, Ho-jae;Park, Kwon-moo;Lee, Jang-hern;Yang, IL-suk
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.783-794
    • /
    • 1996
  • It has been suggested that ion transport systems are intimately involved in mediating the effects of growth regulatory factors on the growth of a number of different types of animal cells in vivo. The functional importance of the apical membrane $Na^+/H^+$ antiporter in the renal proximal tubule is evidenced by estimates that this transporter mediates the reabsorption of approximately one third of the filtered load of sodium and the bulk of the secretion of hydrogen ions. This study was designed to investigate the pathway utilized by IGF-I in regulating sodium transport in primary cultured renal proximal tubule cells. Results were as follows : 1. $Na^+$ was observed to accumulate in the primary cells as a function of time. Raising the concentration of extracellular NaCl induced an decrease in $Na^+$ uptake compared with control cells in a dose dependent manner. The rate of $Na^+$ uptake into the primary cells was about two times higher in the absence of NaCl($40.11{\pm}1.76pmole\;Na^+/mg\;protein/min$) than in the presence of 140mM NaCl($17.82{\pm}0.94pmole\;Na^+/mg\;protein/min$) at the 30 minute uptake. 2. $Na^+$ uptake was inhibited by IAA($1{\times}10^{-4}M$) or valinomycin($5{\times}10^{-6}M$) treatment($50.51{\pm}4.04$ and $57.65{\pm}2.27$ of that of control, respectively). $Na^+$ uptake by the primary proximal tubule cells was significantly increased by ouabain($5{\times}10^{-5}M$) treatment($140.23{\pm}3.37%$ of that of control). When actinomycin D($1{\times}10^{-7}M$) or cycloheximide($4{\times}10^{-5}M$) was applied, $Na^+$ uptake was decreased to $90.21{\pm}2.39%$ or $89.64{\pm}3.69%$ of control in IGF-I($1{\times}10^{-5}M$) treated cells, respectively. 3. Extracellular cAMP decreased $Na^+$ uptake in a dose-dependent manner($10^{-8}-10^{-4}M$). IBMX($5{\times}10^{-5}M$) also inhibited $Na^+$ uptake. Treatment of cells with pertussis toxin(50pg/ml) or cholera toxin($1{\mu}g/ml$) inhibited $Na^+$ uptake. Extracellular PMA decreased $Na^+$ uptake in a dose-dependent manner(1-100ng/ml). 100 ng/ml PMA concentration significantly inhibited $Na^+$ uptake in IGF-I treated cells. However, staurosporine($1{\times}10^{-7}M$) had no effect on $Na^+$ uptake. When PMA and staurosporine were added together, the inhibition of $Na^+$ uptake was not observed. In conclusion, sodium uptake in primary cultured rabbit renal proximal tubule cells was dependent on membrane potentials and intracellular energy levels. IGF-I stimulates sodium uptake through mechanisms that involve some degree of de novo protein and/or RNA synthesis, and cAMP and/or PKC pathway mediating the action mechanisms of IGF-I.

  • PDF