• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimates

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Using Synoptic Data to Predict Air Temperature within Rice Canopies across Geographic Areas (종관자료를 이용한 벼 재배지대별 군락 내 기온 예측)

  • 윤영관;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to figure out temperature profiles of a partially developed paddy rice canopy, which are necessary to run plant disease forecasting models. Air temperature over and within the developing rice canopy was monitored from one month after transplanting (June 29) to just before heading (August 24) in 1999 and 2001. During the study period, the temporal march of the within-canopy profile was analyzed and an empirical formula was developed for simulating the profile. A partially developed rice canopy temperature seemed to be controlled mainly by the ambient temperature above the canopy and the water temperature beneath the canopy, and to some extent by the solar altitude, resulting in alternating isothermal and inversion structures. On sunny days, air temperature at the height of maximum leafages was increased at the same rate as the ambient temperature above the canopy after sunrise. Below the height, the temperature increase was delayed until the solar noon. Air temperature near the water surface varied much less than those of the outer- and the upper-canopy, which kept increasing by the time of daily maximum temperature observed at the nearby synoptic station. After sunset, cooling rate is much less at the lower canopy, resulting in an isothermal profile at around the midnight. A fairly consistent drop in temperature at rice paddies compared with the nearby synoptic weather stations across geographic areas and time of day was found. According to this result, a cooling by 0.6 to 1.2$^{\circ}C$ is expected over paddy rice fields compared with the officially reported temperature during the summer months. An empirical equation for simulating the temperature profile was formulated from the field observations. Given the temperature estimates at 150 cm above the canopy and the maximum deviation at the lowest layer, air temperature at any height within the canopy can be predicted by this equation. As an application, temperature surfaces at several heights within rice fields were produced over the southwestern plains in Korea at a 1 km by 1km grid spacing, where rice paddies were identified by a satellite image analysis. The outer canopy temperature was prepared by a lapse rate corrected spatial interpolation of the synoptic temperature observations combined with the hourly cooling rate over the rice paddies.

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Genetic Analysis of Carcass Traits in Hanwoo with Different Slaughter End-points (세가지 도축 종료 시점을 공변량으로 하는 한우 도체형질에 대한 유전능력 분석모형)

  • Choy, Y.H.;Yoon, H.B.;Choi, S.B.;Chung, H.W.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.703-710
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    • 2005
  • Data from Hanwoo steers and bull calves were analyzed to see the phenotypic and genetic relationships between carcass traits from four different covariance models. Four models fit test station and test period as fixed effect of contemporary group and sire as random effect assuming paternal half-sib relationships among animals. Each model fits one of linear covariate (s) of different slaughter end points-age at slaughter in the first order, age at slaughter in the first and second order, slaughter weight or back fat thickness at 12-13th rib of cold carcass. Age at slaughter in its second order was not significant. Age at slaughter accounted for signifi- cant amount of genetic variances and covariances of carcass traits. Heritability estimates of back fat thickness, rib eye area, carcass weight, marbling score and dressing percentage were 0.34, 0.22, 0.24, 0.42 and 0.18, respectively at constant age basis. The genetic correlation between carcass weight and the other variables were all positive and low to high in magnitude. Genetic correlations between back fat thickness and rib eye area and between marbling score and dressing percentage were low but negative. Variance and covariance structure between these traits were shifted to a great extent when these variables were regressed on slaughter weight or on back fat thickness. These two covariates counteracted to each other but they adjusted each carcass variable or their interrelationship according to differential growth of body components, bone, muscle and fat. Slaughter weight tended to decrease genetic variances and covariances of carcass weight and between component traits and back fat thickness tended to increase those of rib eye area and between rib eye area and carcass weight.

The Application of Computer Program for Determination of Fluid Properties and P-T Condition from Microthermometric Data on Fluid Inclusions (유체포유물의 생성시 온도-압력 조건과 유체포유물의 물리화학적 특성연구에 있어서의 컴퓨터 프로그램이용)

  • Oh, Chang-Whan;Choi, Sang-Hoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 1993
  • Fluid inclusion has been widely used to study the origin and physiochemical conditions of ore deposits. However, it is difficult to get the accurate physiochemical data from fluid inclusion study due to the error of microthermometric data and the complexity of calculation of density and isochore of fluid inclusion. The computer programs HALWAT, $CO_2$, and CHNACL written by Nicholls and Crowford (1985) partly contributed to improve the accuracy of physiochemical data by using complicated equations. These programs are applied to determine the densities and isochores of fluid inclusions for the Cretaceous Keumhak mine using Choi and So's data (1992) and for the Jurassic Samhwanghak mine using Yun's data (1990). The estimated PoT for Keumhak mine from calculated isochores of coexisting fluid inclusions are $230^{\circ}{\sim}290^{\circ}C$ and 500~800 bar which matche well to the poT estimated by Choi and So ($280^{\circ}{\sim}360^{\circ}C$ and 500~800 bar, 1992). However, the poT for Samwhanghak mine estimated in this study by combining the calculated isochores and sulfur isotope geothermometer data by Yun (1990) are about 4~7 kb at $329{\pm}50^{\circ}{\sim}344{\pm}55^{\circ}C$ which are quite different form the P-T estimates by Yun ($255^{\circ}{\sim}294^{\circ}C$ and 1.2~1.9kb, 1990). This discrepancy caused by misinterpretation of homogenization temperature (Th) of fluid inclusion and by application of inappropriate isochores. The application of homogenization temperature and/or inappropriately selected isochore to determine the trapping PoT condition of ore-deposits should be avoided, particularly for ore-deposits formed at pressures higher than 1~2 kb.

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Effects of Raising Farm on Genetic Evaluation for Carcass Traits in Hanwoo Cows (사육농가의 효과가 한우 암소의 도체형질 유전 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Chang-Woo;Lee, Cheong-Mook;Lee, Sung-Jin;Song, Young-Han;Lee, Jeong-Koo;Kim, Jong-Bok
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2011
  • This research was conducted to analyze the effects of raising farm on the heritability and breeding values of Hanwoo cows for their carcass traits, including cold carcass weight (CWT), back-fat thickness (BFT), eye-muscle area (EMA) and marbling score (MAR). The carcass data and pedigree data were collected from steers raised on Hanwoo farms in Pyeongchang-gun, Gangwon-do, South Korea. Three analytical models were applied for the estimation of heritabilities and breeding values. The first model (model 1) included slaughter house-year-month combination as fixed effects and age at slaughter was fitted as linear and quadratic covariates. The second model (model 2) was similar to model 1, but raising farm was additionally included as random effect. The third model (model 3) was similar to model 1 but farm effects were additionally included as fixed effect. The comparisons between the model 1 and the models including farm effect (model 2 and model 3) revealed that heritability estimates from model 2 or model 3 were smaller to those from model 1 for all carcass traits. Especially, obvious decrease of heritability was observed in CWT where heritability was 0.23 from model 1, 0.15 from model 2 and 0.18 from model 3. The maximum log likelihood of the model 2 and 3 were higher than those of model 1 for all traits. In model 2 that raising farm was included as a random effect, the ratio of farm variance to the total phenotypic variance were ranged from 4% (EMA) to 18% (CWT). Top 10% and bottom 10% of female cows were selected based on the breeding values from model 1, and the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients among models were estimated for each trait within selected group. The correlation coefficients were ranged from 0.57 to 0.95 in top 10% group and from 0.68 to 0.95 in bottom 10% group. These results show that the discrepancies in the rankings of breeding values can be based on the models applied. In conclusion, the results obtained in this study suggest that the herd effect or farm effect should be included in the analytical model when breeding values are estimated with the purpose of improvement of carcass traits of Hanwoo breeding cows.

Research of Statistical Model for Genetic Evaluation of Hanwoo Carcass Traits (한우 도체형질의 유전능력평가를 위한 통계모형 탐색)

  • Koo, Yang-Mo;Kim, Si-Dong;Kim, Jung-Il;Song, Chi-Eun;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Jeoung, Yeoung-Ho;Lee, Jae-Youn;Jang, Hyun-Gi;Park, Byoung-Ho;Choi, Te-Jong;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Lee, Seung-Soo;Lee, Jung-Gyu;Kim, Hyo-Sun
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.283-288
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to study the environment effects on live weight, carcass weight, dressing percentage, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, and marbling score, which are the carcass traits of Hanwoo, based on the estimates and all the possible regression for the selection of variable and significance test for 231,382 heads that underwent the carcass measurements. The average and standard deviation for the live weight, carcass weight, dressing percentage, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, and marbling score were 654.79${\pm}$91.61 kg, 362.30${\pm}$67.15 kg, 59.52${\pm}$0.03%, 81.79${\pm}$12.21 $cm^2$, 11.39${\pm}$5.40 mm, 4.38${\pm}$2.29, respectively. The live weight, carcass weight, dressing percentage, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, and marbling score for cow were 532.79${\pm}$78.38 kg, 313.40${\pm}$44.90 kg, 56.50${\pm}$0.03%, 75.24${\pm}$10.69 $cm^2$, 11.82${\pm}$5.10 mm, 4.30${\pm}$2.06, respectively, while for bull were 619.74${\pm}$93.27 kg, 376.89${\pm}$48.62 kg, 58.61${\pm}$0.02%, 85.61${\pm}$10.46 $cm^2$, 5.64${\pm}$2.71 mm, 1.41${\pm}$0.83, respectively, and for steer were 681.78${\pm}$70.72 kg, 415.23${\pm}$49.43 kg, 60.19${\pm}$0.02%, 88.29${\pm}$10.27 $cm^2$, 12.71${\pm}$5.23 mm, 5.42${\pm}$1.99, respectively. In the environmental variables selection based on the variables selection method, the examination by carcass traits suggested that the most appropriate model could be determined when five variables were selected for the live weight, carcass weight, dressing percentage, eye muscle area, and four variables for backfat thickness, and marbling score. When they were considered at a time altogether based on multiple traits, it was deemed to be desirable to insert all five variables into the variables for analysis. In addition, high significance was found by carcass traits.

The Relationship Between Measurements of Color and Water-Holding Capacity in Pork Loin (돈육 등심의 육색과 보수력 측정치 사이의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Sang-Hun;Jeong, Jin-Yeon;Kim, Gap-Don;Cho, In-Cheol;Jeon, Jin-Tae;Joo, Seon-Tea;Park, Gu-Boo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.329-336
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between measurements of color and water-holding capacity (WHC) in pork loin. A total of 419 pork loins were sampled from crossbred (Landrace$\times$Jeju native black pig) F2 pigs at a commercial slaughter house. Meat color measurements (CIE $L^*$, $a^*$, $b^*$), chroma ($C^*$) and hue angle (h) were measured with the Minolta Chromameter and WHC was measured by filter paper fluid, drip loss and cooking loss. Also pH, moisture content and crude fat content were measured at 24 hr postmortem. CIE $L^*$, $b^*$ and h values had positive correlation with drip loss (r=0.52, 0.42), but CIE $a^*$ and $C^*$ values were not related to drip loss. Results showed that CIE $L^*$, $b^*$, and h color system was better than CIE $L^*$, $a^*$, $b^*$ color system to predict WHC, especially drip loss. pH was negatively correlated to drip loss (-0.42) and CIE $L^*$ (-0.67). Although CIE $L^*$ and pH were correlated to drip loss, the accuracy of their estimates for drip loss was 27% and 17%, respectively. Consequently, it was confirmed that meat color and WHC were not perfectly related and suggested that CIE $L^*$, $b^*$, and h color space should not be used independently to predict WHC of pork loin.

Pollutant Loading Estimate from Yongdam Watershed Using BASINS/HSPF (BASINS/HSPF를 이용한 용담댐 유역의 오염부하량 산정)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.2 s.116
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2006
  • A mathematical modeling program called Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) was applied to the Yongdam Watershed to examine its applicability for loading estimates in watershed scale. It was run under BASINS (Better Assessment Science for Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources) program, and the model was validated using monitoring data of 2002 ${\sim}$ 2003. The model efficiency of runoff was high in comparison between simulated and observed data, while it was relatively low in the water quality parameters. But its reliability and performance were within the expectation considering complexity of the watershed and pollutant sources and land uses intermixed in the watershed. The estimated pollutant load from Yongdam watershed for BOD, T-N and T-P was 1,290,804 kg $yr{-1}$, 3,753,750 kg $yr{-1}$ and 77,404 kg $yr{-1}$,respectively. Non-point source (NPS) contribution was high showing BOD 57.2%, T-N 92.0% and T-P 60.2% of the total annual loading in the study area. The NPS loading during the monsoon rainy season (June to September) was about 55 ${\sim}$ 72% of total NPS loading, and runoff volume was also in a similar rate (69%). However, water quality was not necessarily high during the rainy season, and showed a decreasing trend with increasing water flow. Overall, the BASINS/HSPF was applied to the Yongdam watershed successfully without difficulty, and it was found that the model could be used conveniently to assess watershed characteristics and to estimate pollutant loading in watershed scale.

A Study on the Stock Assessment and Management Implications of the Korean Aucha perch (Coreoperca herzi) in Freshwater: (1) Estimation of Population Ecological Characteristics of Coreoperca herzi in the Mid-Upper System of the Seomjin River (담수산 어류 꺽지 (Coreoperca herzi)의 자원 평가 및 관리 방안 연구: 섬진강 중.상류 수계에서 꺽지의 개체군 생태학적 특성치 추정 (1))

  • Jang, Sung-Hyun;Ryu, Hui-Seong;Lee, Jung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.82-90
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    • 2010
  • The ecological characteristics of the Korean Aucha perch, Coreoperca herzi, were determined in order to estimate stock of the mid-upper system of the Seomjin River. The age was determined by counting the otolith annuli. The oldest fish observed in this study was 5 years old. Relationships between body length (BL) and body weight (BW) were $BW=0.0195BL^{3.08}$ ($R^2=0.966$) (p<0.01). Relationships between the otolith radius (R) and body length (BL) were BL=3.882R+1.66 ($R^2=0.944$). The von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated from a non-linear regression method were $L_{\infty}=19.68\;cm$, $W_{\infty}=188.64\;g$, $K=0.17\;year^{-1}$ and $t_0=-1.46$ year. Therefore, growth in length of the fish was expressed by the von Bertalanffy's growth equation as $L_t=19.68$ ($1-e^{-0.17(t+1.46)}$) ($R^2=0.997$). The annual survival rate (S) was estimated to be $0.666\;year^{-1}$. The instantaneous coefficient of natural mortality (M) of estimated from the Zhang and Megrey method was $0.346\;year^{-1}$, and instantaneous coefficient of fishing mortality (F) was calculated $0.061\;year^{-1}$. From the estimates of survival rate (S), the instantaneous coefficient of total mortality(Z) was estimated to be $0.407\;year^{-1}$.

Consistency in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply and Social Costs (전력수급기본계획의 정합성과 사회적 비용)

  • LEE, Suil
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.55-93
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    • 2012
  • In Korea, energy policies are actualized through various energy-related plans. Recently, however, as high-ranking plans, which are very vision-oriented, continually set higher sector-by-sector goals, subordinate action plans, which require consistency, encounter distortions in their establishment process. Also, each subordinate action plan reveals limitations in terms of securing flexibility of the plan in responding to uncertainties of the future. These problems pose potential risks such as causing huge social costs. In this regard, with an aim to provide empirical evidence for discussions on improving the procedure for developing and executing Korea's energy plans, this study mainly analyzes the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply-one of the most important subordinate action plans-in order to explain the problems of the Basic Plan in a logical manner, and potential problems that could occur in the process of sustaining consistency between the Basic Plan and its higher-ranking plans. Further, this paper estimates the scale of social costs caused by those problems assuming realistic conditions. According to the result, in the case of where maximum electric power is estimated to be 7% (15%) less than the actual amount in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, the annual generation cost will rise by 286 billion won and (1.2 trillion won) in 2020. Such social costs are found to occur even when establishing and executing the Basic plan according to the target goal set by its higher-ranking plan, the National Energy Master Plan. In addition, when another higher-ranking GHG reduction master plan requires the electricity sector to reduce emissions by additional 5% in the GHG emissions from the right mix in electricity generation with 'zero' cost of carbon emission, the annual generation cost will rise by approximately 915 billion won in 2020. On the other hand, the analysis finds that since economic feasibility of electric powers in Korea varies significantly depending on their type, Korea is expected to face very small potential social costs caused by uncertainties over the future price of carbon dioxide in the process of establishing the Basic Plan.

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The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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