• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimate Criteria

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A Study on the Optimal Discriminant Model Predicting the likelihood of Insolvency for Technology Financing (기술금융을 위한 부실 가능성 예측 최적 판별모형에 대한 연구)

  • Sung, Oong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.183-205
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    • 2007
  • An investigation was undertaken of the optimal discriminant model for predicting the likelihood of insolvency in advance for medium-sized firms based on the technology evaluation. The explanatory variables included in the discriminant model were selected by both factor analysis and discriminant analysis using stepwise selection method. Five explanatory variables were selected in factor analysis in terms of explanatory ratio and communality. Six explanatory variables were selected in stepwise discriminant analysis. The effectiveness of linear discriminant model and logistic discriminant model were assessed by the criteria of the critical probability and correct classification rate. Result showed that both model had similar correct classification rate and the linear discriminant model was preferred to the logistic discriminant model in terms of criteria of the critical probability In case of the linear discriminant model with critical probability of 0.5, the total-group correct classification rate was 70.4% and correct classification rates of insolvent and solvent groups were 73.4% and 69.5% respectively. Correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify the present sample. However, the actual correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify a future observation. Unfortunately, the correct classification rate underestimates the actual correct classification rate because the data set used to estimate the discriminant function is also used to evaluate them. The cross-validation method were used to estimate the bias of the correct classification rate. According to the results the estimated bias were 2.9% and the predicted actual correct classification rate was 67.5%. And a threshold value is set to establish an in-doubt category. Results of linear discriminant model can be applied for the technology financing banks to evaluate the possibility of insolvency and give the ranking of the firms applied.

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Model Between Lead and ZPP Concentration of Workers Exposed to Lead (직업적으로 납에 노출된 근로자들의 혈액중 납과 ZPP농도와의 관계)

  • Park, Dong-Wook;Paik, Nam-Won;Choi, Byung-Soon;Kim, Tae-Gyun;Lee, Kwang-Yong;Oh, Se-Min;Ahn, Kyu-Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 1996
  • This study was conducted to establish model between lead and ZPP concentration in blood of workers exposed to lead. Workers employed in secondary smelting manufacturing industry showed $85.1{\mu}g/dl$ of blood lead level, exceeding $60{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Removal defined by Occupational Safety and Health Act of Korea. Average blood lead level of workers in the battery manufacturing industry was $51.3{\mu}g/dl$, locating between $40{\mu}g/dl$ and $60{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Requiring Medical Removal. Blood lead level of in the litharge and radiator manufacturing industry was below $40{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria Requiring Temporary Medical Removal. Blood lead levels of workers by industry were Significantly different(p<0.05). 50(21 %) showed blood lead levels above $60{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Removal and 66(27.7 %) showed blood lead levels between the Criteria for Requiring Medical Removal, $40-60{\mu}g/dl$. Thus, approximately 50 percent of workers indicated blood lead levels above $40{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria Requiring Temporary Medical Removal and should receive medical examination and consultation including biological monitoring. Average ZPP level of workers employed in the secondary smelting industry was $186.2{\mu}g/dl$, exceeding above $150{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Removal. Seventy seven of all workers(32.3 %) showed ZPP level above $100-150{\mu}g/dl$, the Criteria for Requiring Medical Removal. The most appropriate model for predicting ZPP in blood was log-linear regression model. Log linear regression models between lead and ZPP concentrations in blood was Log ZPP(${\mu}g/dl$) = -0.2340 + 1.2270 Log Pb-B(${\mu}g/dl$)(standard error of estimate: 0,089, ${\gamma}^2=0.4456$, n=238, P=0.0001), Blood-in-lead explained 44.56 % of the variance in log(ZPP in blood).

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Korea Academy of Prosthodontics criteria for longevity studies of dental prostheses (보철물 수명 연구를 위한 대한치과보철학회 표준 방안: KAP Criteria)

  • Yoon, Joon-Ho;Park, Young-Bum;Youn, Seung-Hwan;Oh, Nam-Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.341-353
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The most important factor in longevity studies of dental prostheses is objective and consistent evaluation of the prosthesis. The Korean Academy of Prosthodontics suggested developing a standardized method for longevity studies of dental prostheses. The purpose of this study is to evaluate previously-used criteria and to develop new criteria, in the form of a procedure flowchart and an evaluation sheet. These new criteria may be able to provide a unified standard for future longevity studies of dental prostheses. Materials and methods: A literature review was performed about the evaluation of dental prostheses. Taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of previously used criteria, a novel, intuitive and objective method was developed for assessment of dental prostheses. Then, a pilot survey was performed with the newly developed flowchart and evaluation sheet to determine problems and implement possible improvements. Results: Thirty cases of fixed dental prosthesis (FDP), 25 cases of removable dental prosthesis (RDP), and 13 cases of implant supported prosthesis (ISP) were evaluated. The average life expectancy estimate was 12.82 years for FDP, 5.96 years for RDP, and 4.82 years for ISP with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Additionally, possible improvements discovered by the pilot survey were reflected in the flowchart and evaluation sheet. Conclusion: The newly developed KAP criteria, flowchart and evaluation sheet enabled objective and consistent results in trial longevity studies of dental prostheses. It is expected that future studies will not only use the KAP criteria but also further improvement will be made on them.

Development of an Inundation Risk Evaluation Method Based on a Multi Criteria Decision Making (다기준 의사결정기법을 기반으로 하는 침수위험 평가기법의 개발)

  • Park, Moo-Jong;Choi, Sung-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.365-377
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    • 2008
  • In this study, PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) which is one of the multi criteria decision making methods is applied to estimate the relative inundation risk of the urban subcatchment. For this purpose, several factors which have an effect on the inundation risk are selected and used to perform PROMETHEE. Those are elevation average, slope average, density of conduit, population and sediment yields per unit area of each subcatchment. Based on them, PROMETHEE is performed and the relative inundation risk for each subcatchment is estimated. For the validation of the suggested method, the results from the suggested method are compared with the historical inundation records occured on 1998 and the relative inundation risk estimated by the method considering sediment yields per unit area only. From the comparison, it is found that the suggested method may generate better results to estimate the relative inundation risk of each subcatchment than the method considering sediment yields per unit area only. Also, it can be applied to establish a rehabilitation order of subcatchments for mitigating the inundation risk.

Performance of Turbo Coded OFDM Systems in W-CDMA Wireless Communication Channel (W-CDMA 무선통신 채널에서 터보 부호를 적용한 OFDM 시스템의 성능 분석)

  • Shin, Myung-Sik;Yang, Hae-Sool
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2010
  • In the recent digital communication systems, the performance of Turbo Code used as the error correction coding method depends on the interleaver size influencing the free distance determination and the iterative decoding algorithms of the turbo decoder. However, some iterations are needed to get a better performance, but these processes require a large time delay. Recently methods of reducing the number of iteration have been studied without degrading original performance. In this paper, the new method of combining ME (Mean Estimate) stopping criterion with SDR (sign difference ratio) stopping criterion among previous stopping criteria is proposed, and the fact of compensating each method's missed detection is verified. Faster decoding is realized that about 1~2 time iterations to reduced through adopting this method into serially concatenated both decoders. System Environments were assumed W-CDMA forward link system with intense MAI (multiple access interference).

Ultimate strength estimation of composite plates under combined in-plane and lateral pressure loads using two different numerical methods

  • Ghannadpour, S.A.M.;Shakeri, M.;Barvaj, A. Kurkaani
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.785-802
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, two different computational methods, called Rayleigh-Ritz and collocation are developed to estimate the ultimate strength of composite plates. Progressive damage behavior of moderately thick composite laminated plates is studied under in-plane compressive load and uniform lateral pressure. The formulations of both methods are based on the concept of the principle of minimum potential energy. First order shear deformation theory and the assumption of large deflections are used to develop the equilibrium equations of laminated plates. Therefore, Newton-Raphson technique will be used to solve the obtained system of nonlinear algebraic equations. In Rayleigh-Ritz method, two degradation models called complete and region degradation models are used to estimate the degradation zone around the failure location. In the second method, a new energy based collocation technique is introduced in which the domain of the plate is discretized into the Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto points. In this new method, in addition to the two previous models, the new model named node degradation model will also be used in which the material properties of the area just around the failed node are reduced. To predict the failure location, Hashin failure criteria have been used and the corresponding material properties of the failed zone are reduced instantaneously. Approximation of the displacement fields is performed by suitable harmonic functions in the Rayleigh-Ritz method and by Legendre basis functions (LBFs) in the second method. Finally, the results will be calculated and discussions will be conducted on the methods.

Efficiency evaluation of water leakage management methods in local small and medium cities (지방중소도시의 누수관리방법에 대한 효율성 평가)

  • Hwang, Jinsoo;Choi, Taeho;Kim, Kibum;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2021
  • This study set up the estimates of leakage management efficiency evaluation and leakage management goal that could be used in local water distribution networks efficiency business and modernization business. The data were analyzed using data envelopment analysis and multiple regression analysis. To this end, with leakage management input indices concerning leakage reduction activities (e.g., aged pipe replacement, water meter replacement, leakage restoration, and leakage detection) and leakage management calculation indices (e.g., the increase of revenue water ratio and the reduction of leakage ratio), the data on 22 K-water consignment local water supply systems were analyzed for the years from 2004 through 2018. Using the results of efficiency analysis by data envelopment analysis, the other DMUs (Decision Making Unit) benchmarked the DMU with the highest efficiency to maximize the leakage management efficiency for all DMUs. Through this, leakage management goal estimates were drawn with the input indices of four leakage reduction activities and calculation indices of the increase of revenue water ratio and the reduction of leakage ratio by multiple regression analysis for each group based on the revenue water ratio and leakage ratio. The correlation coefficients of the leakage management goal estimate for the criteria for the revenue water ratio amounted to 0.553 and 0.771. The correlation coefficients of the leakage management goal estimate for the criteria for leakage ratio were 0.397 and 0.865. Accordingly, we estimated the quantity and priority of four leakage reduction activities for the target leakage ratio and revenue water ratio.

Determination of Shelf Life for Butter and Cheese Products in Actual and Accelerated Conditions

  • Park, Jung-Min;Shin, Jin-Ho;Bak, Da-Jeong;Kim, Na-Kyeong;Lim, Kwang-Sei;Yang, Cheul-Young;Kim, Jin-Man
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.245-251
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    • 2014
  • The aim of this study was to estimate the shelf life of butter and cheese products, with shelf life being a guide used to determine the storage period of food before deterioration. Butter and cheese samples stored at $10^{\circ}C$ and $15^{\circ}C$ had a shelf life of 221 d, while those stored at $25^{\circ}C$ and $35^{\circ}C$ had a shelf life of 109 d. Quality changes, including total cell count, coliform counts, Listeria monocytogenes counts, acid value, moisture content, pH, acidity and overall sensory evaluation, were monitored. In order to pass the overall sensory evaluation, a quality score of 5 points on a 9-point scale was required. For other quality criteria, legal quality limits were established based on the "Process Criteria and Ingredient Standard of Livestock Products" by the Animal, Plant and Fisheries Quarantine and Inspection Agency (Republic of Korea). The nonlegal quality limit was estimated by regression analysis between non-quality criteria (y) and overall sensory evaluation (x). The shelf life was estimated based on the number of days that the product passed the quality limit of the quality criteria. The shelf life of samples stored at $10^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$ and $35^{\circ}C$ was 21.94, 17.18, 6.10 and 0.58 mon, respectively, for butter and 10.81, 9.47, 4.64 and 0.20 mon, respectively, for cheese.

Development of Failure Criterion for Asphalt Concrete Pavement Based on AASHTO Design Guide (AASHTO 설계법을 이용한 아스팔트 콘크리트 포장체의 피로파괴준식 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Soo Il;Lee, Kwang Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 1991
  • Failure criteria for asphalt concrete pavements are developed combining the AASHTO design equation and the multi-layered elastic theory. Thickness range including typical layer thicknesses of four-layer Korea highway structures are employed for pavement structure models. Total of 2430 pavement models with different layer thicknesses and moduli are analyzed. Models with crushed stone and asphalt stabilized base courses are equally included in the analysis. Number of load repetition and the maximum tensile strain at the bottom of asphalt layer are computed from the AASHTO design equation with terminal PSI=2.5 and multi-layered elastic computer program, SINELA, respectively. Failure criteria are developed through the regression analysis. From the analysis, failure criteria for the asphalt concrete pavements with 50% and 95% reliability levels are developed. It is found that the failure criterion of 95% reliability level gives similar results with existing fatigue failure criteria whose terminal performance condition is crack development when compared in a graphical form an equation to estimate failure criterion for a specific reliability level is also proposed.

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The Estimation of Non-Working days for the Construction Project in Incheon Region (기후요소를 고려한 인천지역의 작업불가능일수 산정)

  • Shin Jong-Hyun;Lee Jin-Ah;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.1 s.23
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    • pp.58-64
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    • 2005
  • We should consider climatic factors influencing construction works in order to estimate construction time correctly. This study is to analyze climate elements affecting construction duration and to calculate non-working days far Inchoen territorial region. Through surveying literatures and examining several existing criteria we suggest a Proper criteria for each climate elements which would be used for estimating non-working days. The criteria is made on the raw climate data of Meteorological Administration during the last 30 years(1974-2003) far Incheon region. In case of rainfall, it is estimated as non-working days when daily precipitation is expected more than 10mm, its number of days for Incheon is 29 days. In case of low temperature, the number of non-working days for the concrete works(its criteria be below $4^{\circ}C$ average) and the finishing works(below $0^{\circ}C$ average) is 97 days, 52 days, respectively. In case of high temperature, it is three days when daily highest temperature is expected going over $32^{\circ}C$