• 제목/요약/키워드: Estimate Criteria

검색결과 626건 처리시간 0.025초

다양한 평가 지표와 최적화 기법을 통한 오염부하 산정 회귀 모형 평가 (Evaluation of Regression Models with various Criteria and Optimization Methods for Pollutant Load Estimations)

  • 김종건;임경재;박윤식
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.448-448
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the regression models (Load ESTimator and eight-parameter model) were evaluated to estimate instantaneous pollutant loads under various criteria and optimization methods. As shown in the results, LOADEST commonly used in interpolating pollutant loads could not necessarily provide the best results with the automatic selected regression model. It is inferred that the various regression models in LOADEST need to be considered to find the best solution based on the characteristics of watersheds applied. The recently developed eight-parameter model integrated with Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Gradient Descent Method (GDM) were also compared with LOADEST indicating that the eight-parameter model performed better than LOADEST, but it showed different behaviors in calibration and validation. The eight-parameter model with GDM could reproduce the nitrogen loads properly outside of calibration period (validation). Furthermore, the accuracy and precision of model estimations were evaluated using various criteria (e.g., $R^2$ and gradient and constant of linear regression line). The results showed higher precisions with the $R^2$ values closed to 1.0 in LOADEST and better accuracy with the constants (in linear regression line) closed to 0.0 in the eight-parameter model with GDM. In hence, based on these finding we recommend that users need to evaluate the regression models under various criteria and calibration methods to provide the more accurate and precise results for pollutant load estimations.

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교차검증과 SVM을 이용한 도시침수 위험기준 추정 알고리즘 적용성 검토 (Applicability study on urban flooding risk criteria estimation algorithm using cross-validation and SVM)

  • 이한승;조재웅;강호선;황정근
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제52권12호
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    • pp.963-973
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 도시침수 위험기준이 산정되지 않은 지역의 예·경보 기준을 예측하기 위해 유역특성 자료와 피해이력 기반으로 산정된 한계강우량을 활용하여 도시침수 위험기준을 추정하는 모델을 검토하였다. 위험기준 추정모델은 머신러닝 알고리즘의 하나인 Support Vector Machine을 이용하여 설계하였으며, 학습자료는 지역별 한계강우량과 유역특성으로 구성하였다. 학습자료는 정규화 한 후 SVM 알고리즘에 적용하였으며, SVM에 적용시 Leave-One-Out과 K-fold 교차검증 알고리즘을 이용하여 절대평균오차와 표준편차를 계산한 후 모델의 성능을 평가하였다. Leave-One-Out의 경우 표준편차가 작은 모델이 최적모델로 선정되었으며, K-fold의 경우 fold의 개수가 적은 모델이 선정되었다. 선정된 모델의 지속시간별 평균 정확도는 80% 이상으로 나타나 침수 위험기준 추정을 위해 SVM을 활용가능 할 것으로 판단된다.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOCA PSA MODEL USING A BEST-ESTIMATE THERMAL-HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS

  • Lee, Dong Hyun;Lim, Ho-Gon;Yoon, Han Young;Jeong, Jae Jun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.541-546
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    • 2014
  • Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has been widely used to estimate the overall safety of nuclear power plants (NPP) and it provides base information for risk informed application (RIA) and risk informed regulation (RIR). For the effective and correct use of PSA in RIA/RIR related decision making, the risk estimated by a PSA model should be as realistic as possible. In this work, a best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) for the Hanul Nuclear Units 3&4 is first carried out in a systematic way. That is, the behaviors of peak cladding temperature (PCT) were analyzed with various combinations of break sizes, the operating conditions of safety systems, and the operator's action time for aggressive secondary cooling. Thereafter, the results of the thermal-hydraulic analysis have been reflected in the improvement of the PSA model by changing both accident sequences and success criteria of the event trees for the LOCA scenarios.

재관수 실증실험과 TRACE 코드를 활용한 모델 변수의 불확실도 정량화 (Uncertainty Quantification of Model Parameters Using Reflood Experiments and TRACE Code)

  • 유선오;이경원
    • 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 2024
  • The best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies for loss-of-coolant accident analyses make use of the best-estimate codes and relevant experimental databases. Inherently, best-estimate codes have various uncertainties in the model parameters, which can be quantified by the dedicated experimental database. Therefore, this study was devoted to establishing procedures for identifying the input parameters of predictive models and quantifying their uncertainty ranges. The rod bundle heat transfer experiments were employed as a representative reflood separate effect test, and the TRACE code was utilized as a best-estimate code. In accordance with the present procedure for uncertainty quantification, the integrated list of the influential input parameters and their uncertainty ranges was obtained through local sensitivity calculations and screening criteria. The validity of the procedure was confirmed by applying it to uncertainty analyses, which checks whether the measured data are within computed ranges of the variables of interest. The uncertainty quantification procedure proposed in this study is anticipated to provide comprehensive guidance for the conduct of uncertainty analyses.

A Proposal of Repair Cost Estimating Criteria for Persistent Defects in Apartment Houses

  • Lee, Hae-Jin;Lim, Nam-Gi
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.597-608
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    • 2011
  • 공동주택의 건설 분쟁(Claim)발생 시 지속적으로 발생하는 하자의 보수비용 산정 방안에 대한 객관적 기준이 없어 건설전문가들도 각자의 경험과 성향에 따라 다양하게 판단하게 되므로 문제점을 발생 시키고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이에 대한 분석을 통하여 보수비용 산정기준과 방안을 제시한 후 건축물 하자관련 담당자들에게 합리적인 하자 판단기준을 제안 하고자 한다. 연구결과, 실적공사비를 우선 적용하며 실적공사비에 없는 항목은 표준품셈을 활용하여 산정한다. 지속형 하자 유형인 법규위반 하자의 보수비용 산정은 위반 건물부위만 철거하여 재시공하는 비용을 산정하고, 진행성(확대)하자는 건물 준공의 경과연수에 비례하여 기여율로 산정하며, 반복성 하자는 하자를 최소화시키는 방법의 설비공법을 대안으로 강구하여 산정하고, 가치감소 하자는 내용연수대비 하자보증기간의 비율로 산정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 이중 가치감소하자 보수비용의 산정은 향후 보다 많은 연구가 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

교육시설의 개념단계 공사비예측을 위한 인공신경망모델 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Model of Artificial Neural Network for Construction Cost Estimation of Educational Facilities at Conceptual Stage)

  • 손재호;김청융
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구는 신축 교육시설 프로젝트의 개념단계에서 공사비를 예측하기 위한 인공신경망모델의 제안을 목적으로 한다. 현행 공공 교육시설의 개념단계 공사비예측에는 기본인자인 연면적에 의한 단일변수 모델이 적용되고 있다. 그러나 개념단계에서 단일변수 공사비예측모델을 적용하여 예측된 공사비는 그 오차범위가 크고, 실시설계 완료 후 물량산출에 의해 산정된 상세공사비와 비교하여 큰 차이를 보일 경우 프로젝트의 수정이 불가피하며, 이는 프로젝트의 비용을 증가시키고 공기를 지연시킨다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 교육시설 프로젝트의 사업계획 수립 및 예산확보 과정에서 공사비예측에 적용이 가능한다 변수 인공신경망모델을 제안하였다. 개발된 모델을 평가한 결과 평균오차율이 6.82%로써, 평균 93.18%의 정확도를 기록하였다. 제안된 인공신경망모델은 지난 5년간 신축된 교육시설의 공사예정금액을 실적자료로 사용하여 학습되었기 때문에, 차후 교육시설 신축공사의 예산편성에 그 활용이 기대된다.

알루미늄 박판 미세 V-notching 가공부위의 성형 Parameter 관한 연구 (Study on Design Parameter of Aluminum Micro V-notched Component with Thin Sheet Metal)

  • 김상목;박중원;이현민;구태완;김정;강범수
    • 한국소성가공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소성가공학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.249-252
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    • 2008
  • Micro V-notching process has been used to manufacturing the safety component in Li-Ion battery. These kinds of safety component in Li-Ion battery plays an important role in the explosion from excessive overheating. Therefore, it is very crucial to estimate accurately the working pressure range of the safety component with micro V-notch. In this study, the relationship with the working internal pressure in Li-Ion battery and fracture phenomenon in micro V-notch was investigated through the numerical analysis. The numerical analysis is especially adopted the finite element method with ductile fracture criteria.

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A Performance Comparison of Block-Based Matching Cost Evaluation Models for FRUC Techniques

  • Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Jae-Gon
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제9권6호
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    • pp.671-675
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    • 2011
  • DVC (Distributed Video Coding) and FRUC (Frame Rate Up Conversion) techniques need to have an efficient motion compensated frame interpolation algorithms. Conventional works of these applications have mainly focused on the performance improvement of overall system. But, in some applications, it is necessary to evaluate how well the MCI (Motion Compensated Interpolation) frame matches the original frame. For this aim, this paper deals with the modeling methods for evaluating the block-based matching cost. First, several matching criteria, which have already been dealt with the motion compensated frame interpolation, are introduced and then combined to make estimate models for the size of MSE (Mean Square Error) noise of the MCI frame to original one. Through computer simulations, it is shown that the block-based matching criteria are evaluated and the proposed model can be effectively used for estimating the MSE noise.

저속 40%오프셋 충돌시험을 통한 차량의 손상성 .수리성 및 안전성에 관한연구 (Damageability , Repairability and Safety of Vehicles at Low Speed 40% Offset Crash Test)

  • 박인송;허승진;정태용
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제7권9호
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 1999
  • The research committee for automobile repairs (RCAR), an international body of insurance research centers, has adopted the typical low speed crash test based on an average damage level in crash accidents to estimate the damageability , repairability and safety. The characteristics of body acceleration and the probability of injury are investigated based on damaged components, accelerations of body and injured dummy to analyze damageability and the driver's safety under low speed crash environment. It is found from the experimental results that the probability of head and thorax injuries are very low comparing to the injury criteria of FMVSS No.208. Furthermore, it is suggested that the deployment of airbag may not be necessary at RCAR low speed frontal crash test.

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프랙탈의 고등학교 수학교육과정에의 도입가능성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Possibility of Introduction of Fractals to the High School Mathematics Curriculum)

  • 최정숙;신인선
    • 한국수학교육학회지시리즈A:수학교육
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.115-138
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    • 1998
  • We seek the possibility of introduction of Fractals to the high school math. curriculum through identifying Fractals teaching programs appropriate for the scopes and sequences in math. education for the high school students. We presented the contents of Fractal theory suitable for the high school students. The following subjects were chosen to be introduced; self-similarity, Fractal dimension, Cantor set, Sierpinsky triangle, Sierpinsky carpel Koch curve, Koch island, perimeter estimate of rugged profiles drawn on paper, and chaos game. We developed the working papers and the criteria for appraisal. Each working paper focuses on the activities in which students can solve the given problems, understanding the characteristics and ideas of Fractals. The working papers were given to the second year students who take science course, and the degree of achievements were analyzed based on the appraisal criteria. The results show that it is possible to introduce Fractals to the high school students.

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