• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.371-400
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• 2018

Although asset price is an important factor in determining changes in external balances, no studies have investigated it from the Chinese perspective. In this study, I empirically examine the underlying driving forces of China's trade balances, particularly the role of asset price and the real exchange rate. To this end, I estimate a sign-restricted structural vector autoregressive model with quarterly time series data for China, using the Bayesian method. The results show that changes in asset price affect China's trade balances through private consumption and investment. Also, an appreciation of the real exchange rate tends to deteriorate trade balances in China. Furthermore, forecast error variance decomposition results indicate that changes in asset price (stock price and housing price) explain about 20% variability of trade balances, while changes in the real exchange rate can explain about 10%.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.403-413
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• 2012

The modifications suggested in Uhm et al. (2011) are studied using a partly parametric version of Aalen's additive risk model. A follow-up time period is partitioned into intervals, and hazard functions are estimated as a piecewise constant in each interval. A maximum likelihood estimator by iteratively reweighted least squares and variance estimates are suggested based on the model as well as evaluated by simulations using mean square error and a coverage probability, respectively. In conclusion the modifications are needed when there are a small number of uncensored deaths in an interval to estimate the piecewise constant hazard function.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics S
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• v.35S no.3
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• pp.166-175
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• 1998

When we make a speaker adapted model using MAPE (maximum a posteriori estimation), the adapted model has one mixture in each state. This is because we cannot estimate a number of a priori distribution from a speaker-independent model in each state. If the model is represented by one mixture in each state, it is not well adadpted to specific speaker because it is difficult to represent various speech informationof the speaker with one mixture. In this paper, we suggest the method using several mixtures to well represent various speech information of the speaker in each state. But, because speaker-specific training dat is not sufficient, this method can't be used in every state. So, we make the number of mixtures in each state variable in proportion to the number of frames and to the determinant ofthe variance matrix in the state. Using the proposed method, we reduced the error rate than methods using one branch in each state.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.151-165
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• 2006

It is important to estimate the true misclassification rate of a given classifier when an independent set of test data is not available. Cross-validation and bootstrap are two possible approaches in this case. In related literature bootstrap estimators of the true misclassification rate were asserted to have better performance for small samples than cross-validation estimators. We compare the two estimators empirically when the classification rule is so adaptive to training data that its apparent misclassification rate is close to zero. We confirm that bootstrap estimators have better performance for small samples because of small variance, and we have found a new fact that their bias tends to be significant even for moderate to large samples, in which case cross-validation estimators have better performance with less computation.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.399-406
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• 1996

This paper presents a method of hierarchical state estimation of the time-varying linear systems via Block-pulse function(BPF). When we estimate the state of the systems where noise is considered, it is very difficult to obtain the solutions because minimum error variance matrix having a form of matrix nonlinear differential equations is included in the filter gain calculation. Therefore, hierarchical approach is adapted to transpose matrix nonlinear differential equations to a sum of low order state space equation from and Block-pulse functions are used for solving each low order state space equation in the form of simple and recursive algebraic equation. We believe that presented methods are very attractive nd proper for state estimation of time-varying linear systems on account of its simplicity and computational convenience. (author). 13 refs., 10 figs.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.175-189
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• 2019

The problem of the estimation of quantitative sensitive variable using the item sum technique (IST) on successive occasions has been discussed. IST difference, IST regression, and IST general class of estimators have been proposed to estimate quantitative sensitive variable at the current occasion in two occasion successive sampling. The proposed new estimators have been elaborated under Trappmann et al. (Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 2, 58-77, 2014) as well as Perri et al. (Biometrical Journal, 60, 155-173, 2018) allocation designs to allocate long list and short list samples of IST. The properties of all proposed estimators have been derived including optimum replacement policy. The proposed estimators have been mutually compared under the above mentioned allocation designs. The comparison has also been conducted with a direct method. Numerical applications through empirical as well as simplistic simulation has been used to show how the illustrated IST on successive occasions may venture in practical situations.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.35-42
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• 2022

The paper aims to examine the impact of exports on the growth of Vietnamese manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by exploring the information of 36,053 enterprises across 24 manufacturing sectors from the Vietnam Annual Enterprise Survey (VAES) in the period 2014-2019. To deal with the problem of variable variance, autocorrelation, and endogeneity of the model, the paper uses the OLS regression method with a strong standard error method and system GMM. Export participation by SMEs is positively associated with business growth in terms of sales and total assets, according to the findings. The GMM estimate shows that the rate of sales growth among exporters is 36.5 percent greater than that of non-exporting enterprises in the case of the sales growth measure. Exporters' average total asset growth rate is 19% greater than the rate estimated for non-exporting businesses. The study's findings indicate the need of adopting policies that promote SMEs in transition economies like Vietnam to engage in exporting activities. Furthermore, the findings show that financial assistance and suitable ownership would enable SMEs to take advantage of export opportunities to increase sales and total assets.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on Trading Volume of Container of Korea, and to induce policy implication in the contex of GARCH and regression model. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to the structural model to estimate dynamic short run behavior of variables. The major empirical results of the study show that the increase in exchange rate volatility exerts a significant negative effect on Trading Volume of Container in long run. The results Granger causality based on an error correction model indicate that uni-directional causality between trading volume of container and exchange rate volatility is detected. This study applies impulse response function and variance decompositions to get additional information regarding the Trading Volume of Container to shocks in exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the impact of exchange rate volatility on Trading Volume of Container is negative and converges on a stable negative equilibrium in short-run. Th exchange rate volatility have a large impact on variance of Trading Volume of Container, the effect of exchange rate volatility is small in very short run but become larger with time. We can infer policy suggestion as follows; we must make a stable policy of exchange rate to get more Trading Volume of Container

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.12 no.9
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• pp.357-368
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impact of enterprise R&D investment on international trade in Korea under the new Normal Era. In order to test whether the time series data of trade variables are stationary or not, we put in operation unit root test and cointegration test. Based on VECM (Vector Error Correction Model), we also apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to estimate the dynamic effects in the short-run and long-run. The results show that the relationship between enterprise R&D investment and international trade (export and import) exists in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The results of applying impulse response functions and variance decomposition also indicate that the impact of enterprise R&D investment on international trade is positive, and a significant portion of fluctuations in the trade variable is explained by enterprise R&D investment. Therefore, enterprise R&D investment must be continuously increased to improve economic growth with promoting trading competition power in Korea under the new Normal Era.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.102 no.4
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• pp.467-476
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• 2013

Site index information given from forest site map only exist in the sampled locations. In this study, site index for unsampled locations were estimated using kriging interpolation method which can interpolate values between point samples to generate a continuous surface. Site index of Pinus densiplora in Danyang area were calculated using Chapman-Richards model by plot unit. Then site index for unsampled locations were interpolated by theoretical variogram models and ordinary kriging. Also in order to assess parameter selection, cross-validation was performed by calculating mean error (ME), average standard error (ASE) and root mean square error (RMSE). In result, gaussian model was excluded because of the biggest relative nugget (37.40%). Then spherical model (16.80%) and exponential model (8.77%) were selected. Site index estimates of Pinus densiplora throughout the entire area in Danyang showed 4.39~19.53 based on exponential model, and 4.54~19.23 based on spherical model. By cross-validation, RMSE had almost no difference. But ME and ASE from spherical model were slightly lower than exponential model. Therefore site index prediction map from spherical model were finally selected. Average site index from site prediction map was 10.78. It can be expected that regional variance can be considered by site index prediction map in order to estimate forest biomass which has big spatial variance and eventually it is helpful to improve an accuracy of forest carbon estimation.