• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.55-75
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• 2009

Price discounts presupposing churn-in are important tools of competition in many industries such as mobile telecommunication services and newspaper. In this case, consumers can get discount only through changing the provider. For analyzing this kind of competitions, we should consider the incentive of utilizing iterative switching. Hence, in this paper, we consider multi-stage equilibrium and can find that equilibria are different from one stage discount. In particular, when consumers' decisions are for maximizing multi-stage utility, discounts can bring about churn-out as well as churn-in and firms lose the incentive of discounts.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1610-1618
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• 2015

This study is aimed to estimate price interactions between wild caught fish and farmed fish on the Korean seafood market, using multivariate cointegration analysis. Major commercially important four wild caught fish (chub mackerel, hairtail, yellow croaker and spanish mackerel) and two farmed fish(oliver flounder and black rockfish) are selected as analytical target fish species. Between 2000 and 2013, monthly production and price data are used in this study. The results of cointegration test showed that there would be a long-term equilibrium relationship among 4 wild caught fish and 2 farmed fish. However, the results of exclusion test indicated that farmed fish might not contribute significantly to the long-run relationship, suggesting that farmed fish might be only a weak substitute for wild caught fish, but no significant interaction could be found.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.51-69
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries Outlook" monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.47-55
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• 2016

The proliferation of the Internet and related technologies has led to a new form of distribution channels, namely online retailers. The conventional offline and the new online retailers have different transaction costs perceived by the consumers in the following perspectives: the accessibility to the product information, the traffic cost and the opportunity cost for the time to visit the store, the delivery time and the possibility of 'touch and feel' to test the quality of the product. In particular, the online retailers have lower distribution cost structure in that they do not have physical stores, which results in lower selling price. Thus they continuously offer price competition against offline retailers using the lower selling cost as competitive weapon. Moreover the emergence of the social commerce is likely to intensify the competition between the online and offline retailers. To survive in this fierce competition, the offline retailers are trying to defend their business interests by sticking to offline transaction in anticipation of increased customer loyalty, customer's preference for 'touch and feel' style shopping, and others. Despite of these efforts, customers who touch and feel a product in an offline store but purchase the product through an online retailer are increasing. To protect such customers, recently, some of the offline retailers began to provide the mobile discount service (MDS) which enables the offline customers to purchase a product at a discounted price through the mobile applications. In business competitions, the price discount strategy is usually considered to secure more market share at the cost of lower profit. In this study, however, we analyze the effect of MDS as a weapon for securing more profit. To do this, we set up a game model between the online and offline retailers which incorporates the effect of the MDS. By numerically analyzing the Nash equilibrium of the game, some managerial implications for using the MDS for more profit are discussed.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제107권3호
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• pp.305-315
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• 2018

이 연구의 목적은 "목재의 지속가능한 이용에 관한 법률"에 근거하여 불법목재의 교역을 제한하는 제도 시행에 앞서 국내 목재시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 수행하였다. 시나리오 작성을 위해 부패인식지수를 활용하였고 이를 바탕으로 균형대체방정식 모형을 이용하여 정책실험을 수행하였다. 원목의 균형가격 변화율은 0.066%~0.071% 범위에서 상승할 것으로 분석되었다. 원목가격의 상승은 파생수요의 관계에 있는 제재목의 생산비에 반영되어 제재목의 공급량을 감소시킨다. 상품유형별로 대체효과에 의한 국산재 수요 확대와 국내 가격상승에 의한 공급량 확대를 감안하여 분석한 결과, 국산 제재목 가격 변화율의 범위는 0.885%~4.179%에서 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며 이에 따라 국산 제재목의 공급량은 적어도 5.367% 증가될 것으로 나타났다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.107-131
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• 2013

본고는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 자산가격 버블의 이해에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있는 여건을 감안하여 우리나라 주가에 펀더멘털과 무관한 I(1)인 비정상 확률적 추세(stochastic trend)가 존재하는지의 여부를 주가 배당금의 2변수 VAR 모형에서 검정하고 이를 추정하여 보았다. 이 추세는 주가의 합리적 버블을 추정하기 어려운 점을 감안하여 도입한 것으로, 공적분 및 오차수정모형을 해석하는 경우 양자 간에 유사성이 있음을 설명한다. 한편, 분석 모형에서 주가와 배당은 모두 I(1)인 시계열이며 서로 Engle-Granger 공적분 관계인 것으로 가정한다. 이런 이론적 틀에서 배당금 충격(펀더멘털)의 추세와 통계적으로 상관관계가 없는 주가 내 추세의 추정이 잘 알려진 베버리지-넬슨 분해(Beveridge-Nelson decomposition)를 통해 가능함을 보인다. 또한 이의 검정은 표준적인 t-검정을 통해 쉽게 수행될 수 있음도 보인다. 이러한 추세가 주가에 존재할 경우 일단 발생한 충격은 영구히 지속되며 경제적 영향 역시 항구적일 수 있다. 실증분석에서 1976~2012년 중 연간 실질 KOSPI 지수와 배당 자료를 분석한 결과, 한국주가에 '펀더멘털과 무관한 추세가 존재하지 않는다'는 귀무가설을 기각할 수 없는 것으로 나타났으나, 올림픽 이후 기간의 경우에는 부분적으로 주가변동을 견인하는 것으로 추정된다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.75-91
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• 2015

With the increasing improvement of living standard, people pay more attention to the quality and security of their food. There is an increase in the consumption of aquatic products and a vast prospect of its trade. Fisheries as a major one of the traditional industries in China have significant price advantages and natural resources. However, marine pollution in China is more and more serious and the expecting of aquatic products has been seriously influenced by green barriers in the recent years. This paper tries to examine the effect of Chinese marine pollution on export of aquatic products in China. This paper utilizes cointegration test to estimate long-run equilibrium between marine pollution and fisheries products export. The results indicate that real exchange rate and income variable have positive effects and fish price has negative effect on China's fisheries export to Korea. However, marine pollution variable has no statistically significant effect on dependant variable. And according to the result of China's fisheries export to Japan, exchange rate has positive effect and both fish price and marine pollution variable have negative effects on export. Lastly, marine pollution and income level have effects on dependant variable in the case of Hong Kong, but exchange rate and price variable have no significant effect on aquatic products export from China to Hong Kong. In a word, marine pollution of China is a serious problem and it has negative effect on Chinese export of aquatic products.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.1480-1491
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• 2015

In new deregulated electricity market, short-term price forecasting is key information for all market players. A better forecast of market-clearing price (MCP) helps market participants to strategically set up their bidding strategies for energy markets in the short-term. This paper presents a new prediction strategy to improve the need for more accurate short-term price forecasting tool at spot market using an artificial neural networks (ANNs). To build the forecasting ANN model, a three-layered feedforward neural network trained by the improved Levenberg-marquardt (LM) algorithm is used to forecast the locational marginal prices (LMPs). To accurately predict LMPs, actual power generation and load are considered as the input sets, and then the difference is used to predict price differences in the spot market. The proposed ANN model generalizes the relationship between the LMP in each area and the unconstrained MCP during the same period of time. The LMP calculation is iterated so that the capacity between the areas is maximized and the mechanism itself helps to relieve grid congestion. The addition of flow between the areas gives the LMPs a new equilibrium point, which is balanced when taking the transfer capacity into account, LMP forecasting is then possible. The proposed forecasting strategy is tested on the spot market of the Nord Pool. The validity, the efficiency, and effectiveness of the proposed approach are shown by comparing with time-series models

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.125-135
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• 2022

This study is to analyze the economic effects of tariff reduction using computable general equilibrium(CGE) model. We set up the social accounting matrix for five-base equilibrium year. Our main findings are as follows. First, the impact of tariff reduction on GDP was different from time to time. It meas that the differentiated economics structure was affected by tariff reduction. As our economic grew up, the impact of tariff reduction was measured much higher. Second, until 1995 the impact of tariff reduction on total export and import was increased, then while 1995 the increase was dropped. This is because we reduced the tariff by the WTO negotiations. Third, the tariff reduction affected the price of imported goods, so it contributed to substitute effects between domestic and imported goods. According to these results, we found out the importance of the linkage between the tariff reduction and economic structure.

• 한국잠사곤충학회지
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• 12호
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• pp.47-50
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• 1970

우리나라 잠업을 발전시킴에 있어 하나의 기본요소는 생산업자의 생산활동을 자극할 수 있는 가격수준이다. 본 분석에서는 잠업의 대회적 제한요인인 국제사가를 상한으로 하여 양잠과 제사부문을 균형적으로 발전시킬 수 있는 균형가격수준의 결정방법에 대한 대체안을 제시코자 하였다. 한국은행의 군민소득회계를 위한 중간집계자료를 주 자료로 각종잠사류관계 자료를 수집분석 하였으나 자료의 제한성이 컸다. 이와 같은 잠업시책연구를 위하여 과학적표본계산에 입각한 자료수집활동의 강화가 절실히 요청된다. 제한된 자료의 범위내에서 분석된 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1. 현재의 생산기술체제하에서 제사부문은 대규모 생산의 상대적 유리성이 인정되며 따라서 대규모의 자본집약적 생산체제로 발전될 가능성이 클 것으로 예상된다. 2. 양잠부문에서는 대규모생산의 유리성이 인정되지 않으며 따라서 현재의 소규모 노동집약적 생산체제로 유지될 것이 예상된다. 새로운 기술체제가 도입되지 않는 한 우리나라 농업이 상업적 영농으로 발전됨에 따라 수익성이 높은 여지의 상품생산으로 전환될 가능성도 없지 않다. 3. 잠사류의 가격변동에 따라 생산에 미치는 영향력은 양잠부문이 제사부문보다 크며 따라서 가격인상에 따라 국민총생산에 미치는 영향은 양잠부문이 제사부문보다 클 것이 예상된다. 4. 우리나라 잠업의 균형적 발전을 위한 잠사류의 균형가격수준은 1963∼69년의 추세로 보아 잠견가격을 8∼16％로 조정인상 하던가 또는 기준가격수준을 6∼8％로 인상하는 것이 합리적이었을 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 생사제조판매비와 잠견의 가격비가 28％ 대 72％로 책정하는 것이 투입된 자원의 생산력을 일치시키는 균형가격비로 분석되었다.