• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemics

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An Empirical Model for Forecasting Alternaria Leaf Spot in Apple (사과 점무늬낙엽병(斑點落葉病)예찰을 위한 한 경험적 모델)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe;Cho, Won-Dae;Kim, Seung-Chul
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.25 no.4 s.69
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 1986
  • An empirical model to predict initial disease occurrence and subsequent progress of Alternaria leaf spot was constructed based on the modified degree day temperature and frequency of rainfall in three years field experiments. Climatic factors were analized 10-day bases, beginning April 20 to the end of August, and were used as variables for model construction. Cumulative degree portion (CDP) that is over $10^{\circ}C$ in the daily average temperature was used as a parameter to determine the relationship between temperature and initial disease occurrence. Around one hundred and sixty of CDP was needed to initiate disease incidence. This value was considered as temperature threshhold. After reaching 160 CDP, time of initial occurrence was determined by frequency of rainfall. At least four times of rainfall were necessary to be accumulated for initial occurrence of the disease after passing temperature threshhold. Disease progress after initial incidence generally followed the pattern of frequency of rainfall accumulated in those periods. Apparent infection rate (r) in the general differential equation dx/dt=xr(1-x) for individual epidemics when x is disease proportion and t is time, was a linear function of accumulation rate of rainfall frequency (Rc) and was able to be directly estimated based on the equation r=1.06Rc-0.11($R^2=0.993$). Disease severity (x) after t time could be predicted using exponential equation $[x/(1-x)]=[x_0/(1-x)]e^{(b_0+b_1R_c)t}$ derived from the differential equation, when $x_0$ is initial disease, $b_0\;and\;b_1$ are constants. There was a significant linear relationship between disease progress and cumulative number of air-borne conidia of Alternaria mali. When the cumulative number of air-borne conidia was used as an independent variable to predict disease severity, accuracy of prediction was poor with $R^2=0.3328$.

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Integrated Rotary Genetic Analysis Microsystem for Influenza A Virus Detection

  • Jung, Jae Hwan;Park, Byung Hyun;Choi, Seok Jin;Seo, Tae Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2013.08a
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    • pp.88-89
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    • 2013
  • A variety of influenza A viruses from animal hosts are continuously prevalent throughout the world which cause human epidemics resulting millions of human infections and enormous industrial and economic damages. Thus, early diagnosis of such pathogen is of paramount importance for biomedical examination and public healthcare screening. To approach this issue, here we propose a fully integrated Rotary genetic analysis system, called Rotary Genetic Analyzer, for on-site detection of influenza A viruses with high speed. The Rotary Genetic Analyzer is made up of four parts including a disposable microchip, a servo motor for precise and high rate spinning of the chip, thermal blocks for temperature control, and a miniaturized optical fluorescence detector as shown Fig. 1. A thermal block made from duralumin is integrated with a film heater at the bottom and a resistance temperature detector (RTD) in the middle. For the efficient performance of RT-PCR, three thermal blocks are placed on the Rotary stage and the temperature of each block is corresponded to the thermal cycling, namely $95^{\circ}C$ (denature), $58^{\circ}C$ (annealing), and $72^{\circ}C$ (extension). Rotary RT-PCR was performed to amplify the target gene which was monitored by an optical fluorescent detector above the extension block. A disposable microdevice (10 cm diameter) consists of a solid-phase extraction based sample pretreatment unit, bead chamber, and 4 ${\mu}L$ of the PCR chamber as shown Fig. 2. The microchip is fabricated using a patterned polycarbonate (PC) sheet with 1 mm thickness and a PC film with 130 ${\mu}m$ thickness, which layers are thermally bonded at $138^{\circ}C$ using acetone vapour. Silicatreated microglass beads with 150~212 ${\mu}L$ diameter are introduced into the sample pretreatment chambers and held in place by weir structure for construction of solid-phase extraction system. Fig. 3 shows strobed images of sequential loading of three samples. Three samples were loaded into the reservoir simultaneously (Fig. 3A), then the influenza A H3N2 viral RNA sample was loaded at 5000 RPM for 10 sec (Fig. 3B). Washing buffer was followed at 5000 RPM for 5 min (Fig. 3C), and angular frequency was decreased to 100 RPM for siphon priming of PCR cocktail to the channel as shown in Figure 3D. Finally the PCR cocktail was loaded to the bead chamber at 2000 RPM for 10 sec, and then RPM was increased up to 5000 RPM for 1 min to obtain the as much as PCR cocktail containing the RNA template (Fig. 3E). In this system, the wastes from RNA samples and washing buffer were transported to the waste chamber, which is fully filled to the chamber with precise optimization. Then, the PCR cocktail was able to transport to the PCR chamber. Fig. 3F shows the final image of the sample pretreatment. PCR cocktail containing RNA template is successfully isolated from waste. To detect the influenza A H3N2 virus, the purified RNA with PCR cocktail in the PCR chamber was amplified by using performed the RNA capture on the proposed microdevice. The fluorescence images were described in Figure 4A at the 0, 40 cycles. The fluorescence signal (40 cycle) was drastically increased confirming the influenza A H3N2 virus. The real-time profiles were successfully obtained using the optical fluorescence detector as shown in Figure 4B. The Rotary PCR and off-chip PCR were compared with same amount of influenza A H3N2 virus. The Ct value of Rotary PCR was smaller than the off-chip PCR without contamination. The whole process of the sample pretreatment and RT-PCR could be accomplished in 30 min on the fully integrated Rotary Genetic Analyzer system. We have demonstrated a fully integrated and portable Rotary Genetic Analyzer for detection of the gene expression of influenza A virus, which has 'Sample-in-answer-out' capability including sample pretreatment, rotary amplification, and optical detection. Target gene amplification was real-time monitored using the integrated Rotary Genetic Analyzer system.

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The Study of Effectiveness of MERS on the Law and Remaining Task (국내 메르스(MERS) 사태가 남긴 과제와 법률에 미친 영향에 대한 소고(小考))

  • Yoon, Jong Tae
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.263-291
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    • 2015
  • In May, 2015, a 68 years old man, who has been Middle East Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, had high fever, muscle aches, cough and shortness of breath. he went two local hospital near his house and the S Medical Center emergency center. He was diagnosed MERS(Middle East respiratory syndrome) and the diseases had put South Korea the fear of epidemics for three months. Especially, this disease has firstly reported in Middle East Asia in September 2012 and spreaded to twenty-six countries. In 21, July, 2015, European Center for disease prevention and control reported 533 people were died and in South Korea, 186 people were infected, 36 people were died and 16,693 people were isolated from MERS. South Korea government were faced into epidemic control and blamed from public. Especially, hospital acquired infection, disease control chain, opening of information, ventilation, lack of isolation bed, the problem of function of local health center, the issue of reparation for hospital and insurance cover rate, the classification of disease, the role of Korea Centers for disease control and prevention, the culture of visiting hospital to see sick people, the issue of hospital multiple room and other related social support policy. it is time to study and discuss to solve these problems. South Korea citizens felt fear and fright from MERS. What is wore, they thought the dieses were out of their government control. It was unusual case for word except Middle East Asia. numerous tourists canceled visiting korea. South korea economic were severly damaged especially, tourism industry. South korea government should admit that they had failed initial action against MERS and take full reasonability from any damages. The government have to open information to public in terms of epidemic diseases and try to prevent any other epidemic diseases and try to work with local governments.

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Clinical Characteristics of Pediatric Patients With the Coronavirus Disease 2019 During the Third and Fourth Waves of the Epidemic in Korea: A Single Center Retrospective Study (국내 코로나바이러스감염증-19 유행 제3-4기 소아청소년 환자의 임상적 특성: 단일기관 후향적 연구)

  • Gawon Moon;Donghyun Shin;Soo-Han Choi
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.131-140
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have emerged, and distinct epidemic waves of COVID-19 have occurred for an extended period. This study aimed to analyze the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of children with COVID-19 from the third wave to the middle of the fourth epidemic wave in Korea. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of hospitalized patients aged ≤18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. The study periods were divided into the third wave (from November 13, 2020 to July 6, 2021) and the fourth wave (from July 7 to October 31, 2021). Results: Ninety-three patients were included in the analysis (33 in the third and 60 in the fourth waves). Compared with the third wave, the median age of patients was significantly older during the fourth wave (6.7 vs. 2.8 years, P=0.014). Household contacts was reported in 60.2% of total patients, similar in both periods (69.7 vs. 55.0%, P=0.190). Eighty-one (87.1%) had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among these, 10 (12.3%) had no respiratory symptoms. Anosmia or ageusia were more commonly observed in the fourth epidemic wave (10.7 vs. 34.0%, P=0.032). Most respiratory illness were upper respiratory tract infections (94.4%, 67/71), 4 had pneumonia. The median cycle threshold values (detection threshold, 40) for RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and envelope (E) genes of SARS-CoV-2 were 21.3 and 19.3, respectively. There was no significant difference in viral load during 2 epidemic waves. Conclusions: There were different characteristics during the two epidemic waves of COVID-19.

Epidemiological Changes and Clinical Features of Hepatitis A in Children, Living in Kyung-gi Province, Since 1988 to 1998 (최근 10년간(1988~1998) 경기지역 소아에서 A형 간염의 역학적 변화 및 임상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun;Kim, Jong Hyun;Kim, Dong Un;Hur, Je Kyun;Lee, Won Bae;Seo, Byung Kyeu;Kang, Jin-Han
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.230-238
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : Worldwidely, the incidence of the hepatitis A has been markedly decreased in the past years. Also in Korea, there has been only a few sporadic cases without evidence of epidemics since the mid 1980s. However, the incidence of the hepatitis A in young adults and childen has been in trends of increasing since 1996. So, we retrospectively performed the study on the epidemiolgical changes and the clinical feature of hepatitis A in childen, living in Kyung-gi province, since 1988 to 1998. Methods : The four affiliated hospitals of the Catholic University of Korea, Our lady of Mercy's hospital, Holy family hospital, Eui-Jung-bu St. Mary's hospital, and St. Vincent hospital, were enrolled in this study. We conducted statistical analysis on the incidence of hepatitis A since 1988 to 1998, concerning with the period (monthly, annually), age, sex and related epidemiological property, by reviewing the hospital records of the patients with hepatitis A. We simultaneously performed the study concerning with the clinical characteristics of hepatitis A. Results : 1) During the study period, 46 children was diagnosed as hepatitis A, and among them 28 children (60.1%) developed sporadically in the 1998. And sex ratio was 1.2(male):1(female). 2) Most of the patients developed between March and July, and hepatitits A were mainly developed in the patients above the 10 year old ages(37 patients; 80.4%). 3) The socioeconomic and educational status of the patient's parents was almostly below the middle and low class. Although, we could not find the etiological factors in most cases, but we found the evidence of interfamilial transmission in one family. 4) The patients complained the symptoms of nausea and vomiting, jaundice, poor appetite, mild fever, fatigueness, abdominal pain, URI symptom, dyspepsia, dark urine, headache and diarrhea in order, and findings of jaundice, hepatomegaly, RUQ tenderness, splenomegaly and LLQ tenderness in order were seen. 5) All patients showed abnormal findings of the liver function tests, and the pattern of cholestatic hepatitis were seen in most cases, but these findings were normalized within the 2~4 weeks. The findings of the gall bladder wall thickening, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly and ascites were seen on abodominal sonogram. 6) The prognosis of all patients were good without complications, except in one case who had the episode of transient recuurence. And the mean hospitalization dates were 11.1 days. Conclusion : We found that the incidence of hepatitis A showed the increasing trend, and peaked in the 1998 in Kyung-gi province children. And hepatitis A mainly developed in children above the 10 year old ages. The scioeconomic and educational status of patient's family was almostly below the middle class. All of them showed abnormal liver function, and clinically cholestatic hepatitis features were seen in most cases. But, the prognosis was excellent without complication in all cases.

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Study about Vaccination of Patients Diagnosed by Antimeasles Antibody in Measles Out break between 2000 and 2001 (2000~2001년 홍역 유행시 홍역 항체 유무로 진단된 환아의 홍역백신 접종 여부에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Kye Wool;Yoon, Hwa Jun;Park, Seok Won;Kim, Hwang Min;Kim, Jong Soo
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Despite of the appropriate measles vaccination programs, epidemics occur every 2~3 years and especially occurred in large group in late of 2000 and early of 2001. To evaluate the effect of the vaccination, needs for revaccination and to determine the optimal age for revaccination, we examined measles specific IgG and IgM in mealses patients and investigated different antibody appearance according to vaccination history. Methods : Anti-measles antibodies were checked in sera of 201 patients(male : 117, female : 84) that are responsible for Criteria for Disease Control among 298 patients that are suspicious of measles including inpatients and outpatients in Wonju Christian Hospital from June in 2000 to June in 2001. They were checked by immunofluorescent assay. Then we classified them according to sex, month, distribution of age due to vaccination and appearance of measles antibody. Results : The ratio of male and female was 1.4 : 1. The maximum incidence was 38 cases(18.9%) in May in 2001. Incidence was increased from November in 2000 to January in 2001 and decreased in February and March in 2001. Thereafter it was increased from April in 2001 again and decreased from June. There were 93 cases(46.3%) in vaccinated group and 108 cases(53.7%) in unvaccinated group. In the distribution according to age in vaccinated group, there were 54 cases(58.1%) in more than 10 years old, 15 cases(16.0%) between 7 and 10 years old, 12 cases(12.9%) between 15 months and 3 years old, 6 cases (6.5%) between 4 and 6 years old and 6 cases(6.5%) between 6 months and 14 months old. In the distribution according to age in unvaccinated group, there were 88 cases(81.5%) between 6 months and 14 months old, 9 cases(8.3%) between 15 months and 3 years old, 7 cases(6.5%) less than 6 months old, 3 cases(2.8%) more than 10 years old and 1 case(0.9%) between 7 and 10 years old. In the distribution of measles specific IgG and IgM, 78 cas (87.6%) were IgG(+), IgM(+) and 11 cases(12.4%) are IgG(+), IgM(-) in vaccinated group. In unvaccinated group, there were 69 cases(63.9%) of IgG(+), IgM(+) and 39 cases (36.1%) of IgG(-), IgM(+). Con c lu s i on s : We thought that measles incidence was peaked between 6 months and 14 months old in unvaccinated group because of maximum decrement of transplacental matenal antibody and was peaked in more than 10 years old in vaccinated group because of maximum decrement of measles specific IgG. We think that measles revaccination as well as vaccination and especially optimal age for revaccination is very important to prevent measles successfully.

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