• 제목/요약/키워드: Epidemic

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다 집단 구획모델을 적용한 지역 간 감염모델 (Interregional Epidemic Model with Multi-Group Compartmental Model)

  • 곽승현
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2021
  • 코로나바이러스감염증-19의 지역 간 감염확산을 설명하기 위해 단일 집단의 구획모델(compartmental model)인 SEIQRD 모델을 응용하여 다 집단(multi-group) 구획모델을 설계하였다. 이 모델은 구획을 세분화하여 잠복기 및 무증상자와 같은 숨은 감염자에 대한 설명이 가능하며 각 지역 간 감염지수와 검사율을 비교할 수 있다. 이를 통해 2020년 8월 2차 대유행과 11월 3차 대유행 시기에 어느 지역을 중심으로 전파가 이뤄졌는지 추정해보았다. 대한민국 국민 전체를 모집단으로 두었을 때 하위집단(subgroup)을 서울, 경기+인천, 비수도권으로 설정하였다. 데이터는 보건복지부의 '코로나 19국내발생 현황'을 참고하여 격리중인 인원, 누적 사망인원, 완치(격리해제)인원을 적합시켜 지역 간 감염지수와 지역별 감염자들의 평균 검사율, 지역별 평균 완치기간, 지역별 예상되는 숨은 감염자 수를 추정하였다.

스마트계약 기반 회의용 키 분배 기법 (The Smart Contract based Conference Key Distribution Scheme)

  • 윤성현
    • 사물인터넷융복합논문지
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2020
  • 최근 코로나 19 확산으로 비대면 화상회의에 대한 수요가 급증하고 있다. 기존의 줌, 구글 미트와 같은 서버-클라이언트 기반의 화상회의 시스템에서 서버는 회의키를 이용하여 회의 멤버 및 회의 내용을 제어한다. 만약 서버를 신뢰할 수 없다면 서버에 의한 조작 및 부정이 가능하기 때문에 회의 멤버들의 프라이버시는 보장되지 않는다. 따라서, 서버의 도움 없이 모든 참여자가 신뢰할 수 있는 회의키 생성 및 분배 기법의 개발이 필수적이다. 스마트계약은 블록체인에 저장되는 프로그램으로 블록체인의 특성상 수정될 수 없고 누구나 그 실행 결과를 검증할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 스마트계약 기반의 회의용 키 분배 기법을 제안한다. 제안한 방법은 키 분배를 위한 스마트계약 발행, 회의키 생성 및 검증 단계로 구성된다. 스마트계약은 기존의 신뢰할 수 있는 서버의 역할을 대체하며, 회의 멤버들은 스마트계약에 구현된 프로토콜에 따라서 회의키를 생성한다. 제안한 방법은 화상회의 시스템에 적용할 수 있으며, 회의 멤버 이외의 다른 사용자들은 회의키에 접근할 수 없다.

펜데믹 상황시 정부의 대응 정책 비교: 코로나-19, 사스, 메르스를 중심으로 (Comparison of Domestic and International Government Policies in Pandemic Circumstances and Crises: Based on COVID-19, SARS, MERS)

  • 김석만;박상용;이민우;강철웅
    • 대한물리의학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.123-141
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    • 2021
  • PURPOSE: Focusing on the factors that influence the infectious disease emergency response policy (approached by dividing the factors into health policy management and economic policies), both SARS and MERS cases were based on the legal system, manpower, and budget, but there has not been enough learning from the epidemic. This study focused on infectious disease emergency governance, which various studies have neglected despite its social and academic importance. METHODS: The research is based on an analysis of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 and compares global policies. In this study, infectious disease emergency governance was divided into health policy management and economic factors. This study focused on planning and leadership before and after the outbreak of infectious diseases and how cooperation was achieved to monitor and respond to infectious diseases successfully. RESULTS and CONCLUSION: The limit of this study was that COVID-19 is a currently ongoing infectious disease with high uncertainty. Because it is an ongoing problem, only some data and statistics are reflected, and many limitations prevent a proper comparison under the same criteria as other infectious diseases. In addition, because continuous changes are expected, there is also room for infectious diseases to develop in a completely different pattern from the current situation, and continuous research must be accompanied in the future.

An Empirical Analysis of Sino-Russia Foreign Trade Turnover Time Series: Based on EMD-LSTM Model

  • GUO, Jian;WU, Kai Kun;YE, Lyu;CHENG, Shi Chao;LIU, Wen Jing;YANG, Jing Ying
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권10호
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 2022
  • The time series of foreign trade turnover is complex and variable and contains linear and nonlinear information. This paper proposes preprocessing the dataset by the EMD algorithm and combining the linear prediction advantage of the SARIMA model with the nonlinear prediction advantage of the EMD-LSTM model to construct the SARIMA-EMD-LSTM hybrid model by the weight assignment method. The forecast performance of the single models is compared with that of the hybrid models by using MAPE and RMSE metrics. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the weight assignment approach can benefit from the hybrid models. The results show that the SARIMA model can capture the fluctuation pattern of the time series, but it cannot effectively predict the sudden drop in foreign trade turnover caused by special reasons and has the lowest accuracy in long-term forecasting. The EMD-LSTM model successfully resolves the hysteresis phenomenon and has the highest forecast accuracy of all models, with a MAPE of 7.4304%. Therefore, it can be effectively used to forecast the Sino-Russia foreign trade turnover time series post-epidemic. Hybrid models cannot take advantage of SARIMA linear and LSTM nonlinear forecasting, so weight assignment is not the best method to construct hybrid models.

미국 극에 나타난 에이즈 정치학 (AIDS Politics in American Drama)

  • 백승진
    • 영어영문학
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.259-292
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    • 2009
  • When AIDS evolved into a narrative, there were lots of mythologies on AIDS. Among them, the one that AIDS is a gay plague was accepted without any special rejection. Now AIDS is no longer a gay-related disease. At the beginning of the epidemic, however, AIDS was said to be a gay plague and gays were blamed for their life styles. Although AIDS was new, it had been in the mind of people. That is, the truths about AIDS were distorted and misunderstood. The social aspects of AIDS were based not on real scientific facts but on the prejudice and the practices which heterosexual society had invented for homosexuals. Here the AIDS crisis is said to be politicized. The socio-political responses to AIDS were effected by the dominance of Reaganism. So this paper investigates the effects of AIDS on the gay community and the reactions of the Reagan administration through analyzing ten American AIDS plays. Four issues are discussed to develop the paper's main idea: the meaning of AIDS, the past to be remembered, the new family system, and the indifference of President Reagan and the silence of media. AIDS means death; the relation between homosexuality and AIDS cannot be separated. Under these social circumstances AIDS becomes a symbol for moral corruption and the person with AIDS is thought to be punished. But a gay person can overcome the fear of death through regaining promiscuous sex and confirming his identity as a gay. Also to survive in the heterosexual society a gay has to make a new family system. Finally the indifference of the Reagan administration and the virtual silence of the media make the crisis more serious. In the conclusion homosexuals are compared to the Jewish people and the responsibility of gay community is also discussed. The important thing is that facing the AIDS crisis, the gay community has spiritually grown up.

RCS 웜 시뮬레이션을 위한 Hybrid 모델링 방법 (A Hybrid Modeling Method for RCS Worm Simulation)

  • 김정식;박진호;조재익;최경호;임을규
    • 정보보호학회논문지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2007
  • 인터넷에 대한 의존도가 증가하면서 인터넷 웜에 대한 연구의 필요성이 증가하게 되었다. 인터넷 웜을 연구하는 데 가장 많이 사용하는 방법 중의 하나는 시뮬레이션인데, 대규모 네트워크상에서 동작하는 웜을 시뮬레이션 하는 데에는 성능, 확장성 등의 문제가 발생한다. 이에 본 논문에서는 대규모 인터넷 웜, 특히 RCS(Random Constant Spreading) 특성을 갖는 웜을 시뮬레이션 할 때 발생하는 문제점을 줄여, 효율적인 시뮬레이션이 가능하도록 하는 hybrid 모델링 방법을 제안하였다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 hybrid모델은 epidemic모델과 유체 모델을 사용한 모델링 네트워크와 패킷 네트워크의 연동을 통하여 시뮬레이션을 수행하도록 하였으며, 이로 인하여 일반적인 모델링 기법의 장점인 빠른 수행 시간을 가짐과 동시에 패킷 네트워크를 이용하여 동적으로 인자값을 업데이트할 수 있게 되었다. 또한, 한 번의 시뮬레이션을 통해 모델링 네트워크로부터 거시적인 정보와 패킷 네트워크로부터 세부적인 정보를 모두 얻을 수 있다. 그리고 본 논문에서는 RCS 특성을 가지는 웜의 한 종류인 코드레드 웜에 대한 실험을 수행하여 hybrid 모델의 적합성을 보여주었다.

위험사회 재난 안전 분야 대응을 위한 AI 조력자 (AI Advisor for Response of Disaster Safety in Risk Society)

  • 이용학;강윤희;이민호;박성호;강명주
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2020
  • 4차 산업혁명은 초기 단순 제조업 혁신에서 사회 및 경제분야에서 다양한 기술적 융합 방향을 이끄는 메가 트랜드로서 국가별로 진행하고 있다. COVID-19와 같은 감염병의 유행은 디지털 중심의 비대면 비즈니스를 경제 운영에서 전환되고 있으며 온라인화 확산을 위해서는 개인 맞춤형서비스를 위한 AI와 빅데이터 기술의 활용은 필수적이다. 이 논문에서는 4차산업혁명을 주요한 기술 특징 및 정부에서 추진하는 디지털 뉴딜의 효과적 이행을 위해 핵심 기술인 인공지능기술의 적용을 중심으로 사례를 분석하고 재난대응 분야에서의 활용 사례를 기술한다. 재난대응 활용사례로서 AI 조력자는 긴급호출에서 신고자의 상태에 따른 적절한 대응책들을 제시한다. 이를 위해 AI 조력자는 적응적 대응을 위한 음성인식 데이터 기반 분석 및 변환 텍스트의 재난 분류를 제공한다.

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Development of sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for a large-scale detection of porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus in feces

  • Oh, Yeonsu;Lee, Sang-Joon;Cho, Ho-Seong;Tark, Dongseob
    • 한국동물위생학회지
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    • 제43권4호
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2020
  • Porcine transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE) has been a significant cause of economic losses in pig farming industry since 1950s. Although transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) has declined in recent years, it should not be excluded because of its characteristics; the frequency of gene mutation, the mortality in piglets, and the possibility for sudden incidence. Therefore, the herd-level monitoring of the virus is important to prevent further circulation of TGE. The aim of this study is to develop a large-scale sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with high specificity to rapidly detect TGEV in feces by using monoclonal antibodies (Mabs). The TGEV specific Mabs were produced in hybridoma cells. Among the Mabs belonged to the IgG class developed by this study, the final selected 8H6, 1B7, 4G3, and 1F8 were identified to have the neutralization ability against TGEV. The sandwich ELISA was established using 8H6 as a reporter antibody and 1B7 and the reported 5C8 as a capture antibody. The developed sandwich ELISA was able to distinguish TGEV from other pathogenic diarrheal agents (porcine rotavirus, porcine reovirus, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), E. coli, and C. perfringens) in tissue culture as well as fecal samples. And the detection rate of TGEV in feces was 80% compared with RT-PCR. The results suggested that the developed sandwich ELISA may be useful in the herd-level monitoring for effective preventive measures due to the early diagnosis of TGEV using a large amount of samples.

Maternal high-fructose intake during pregnancy and lactation induces metabolic syndrome in adult offspring

  • Koo, Soohyeon;Kim, Mina;Cho, Hyun Min;Kim, Inkyeom
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.160-172
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    • 2021
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Nutritional status and food intake during pregnancy and lactation can affect fetal programming. In the current metabolic syndrome epidemic, high-fructose diets have been strongly implicated. This study investigated the effect of maternal high-fructose intake during pregnancy and lactation on the development of metabolic syndrome in adult offspring. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Drinking water with or without 20% fructose was administered to female C57BL/6J mice over the course of their pregnancy and lactation periods. After weaning, pups ate regular chow. Accu-Chek Performa was used to measure glucose levels, and a tail-cuff method was used to examine systolic blood pressure. Animals were sacrificed at 7 months, their livers were excised, and sections were stained with Oil Red O and hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. Kidneys were collected for gene expression analysis using quantitative real-time Polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Adult offspring exposed to maternal high-fructose intake during pregnancy and lactation presented with heavier body weights, fattier livers, and broader areas under the curve in glucose tolerance test values than control offspring. Serum levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in the maternal high-fructose group were higher than that in controls. However, there were no significant differences in mRNA expressions of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system genes and sodium transporter genes. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that maternal high-fructose intake during pregnancy and lactation induces metabolic syndrome with hyperglycemia, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in adult offspring.

COVID-19로 인해 발생한 업무의 피로도와 직무소진의 상관관계 및 직무스트레스와의 회귀분석 연구 -물리치료사를 대상으로- (Correlation Between Work Fatigue Caused by COVID-19 and Occupational Burnout -Regression Analysis of Occupational Stress in Physiotherapists-)

  • 이상열;최수홍;김인균;오강오;윤성영;석힘;허재석
    • PNF and Movement
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.225-231
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate the type of physical therapist response work and its intensity, along with the prolonged prevalence of COVID-19, to determine the impact on physical therapists' occupational stress and occupational burnout. Methods: An online survey was conducted with 118 physiotherapists and collected the participants' gender, final educational background, clinical work experience, workplace type, additional workload, and fatigue associated with COVID-19. After excluding one participant who submitted an incomplete questionnaire, 117 respondents were included in the final data. Results: Additional COVID-19-related workloads and response reliability for fatigue, occupational burnout, and occupational stress were shown to have Cronbach's alpha measures of 0.76, 0.89, and 0.87, respectively. Groups who had experienced a new epidemic in the past showed higher fatigue levels (3.06±0.94) than those groups who had no such experience (2.49±0.84; p < 0.05). Correlation analysis of COVID-19 work fatigue and occupational burnout scales showed a positive correlation (r = 0.19; p < 0.05). The regression of occupational burnout and occupational stress showed a regression model of Y = 20.00+0.43X1 (X1: job stress; p< 0.05) and an explanatory power of 24.8% with an adj.R2 = 0.25. Conclusion: Based on the results, it is suggested that various institutions, such as medical institutions, educational institutions, and physiotherapists' associations, should seek ways to manage and alleviate physiotherapists' stress.