• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemic

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A Study on the Impact of the Epidemic Disease on the Number of Books Checked Out of the Public Libraries: Based on the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (유행성 질병이 공공도서관의 대출책수에 미치는 영향: 메르스 사태를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Wan-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.273-287
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    • 2015

  • This study aimed to investigate the impact of the epidemic disease including Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS) on the usage of public libraries. Such disease yields anxiety throughout the nation and discourages social activities in general. 18,711,453 records from 303 public libraries were examined with "big data retrieval & analysis platform for public libraries" located in Sejong National Library. The results are as follows. First, in 2015, when MERS was prevalent, the daily mean of books checked out was 64,645.05, showing decrease of 6,300 per day compared to that of 2014. Second, in 2014, the daily mean of books checked out from July 5th to August 19th was greater than that of from April 4th to May 19th and that of from May 20th to July 4th, implying the impact of summer vacation on the increase in books checked out in public libraries. Third, in 2015, the daily mean of books checked out from July 5th was greater than during MERS outbreak(from May 20th to July 4th), while it did not show statistically significant difference with that of before the outbreak. Fourth, the daily mean of books checked out did not show statistically significant difference between 2014 and 2015 before and during the outbreak, while it showed statistically significant difference between 2014 and 2015 after the epidemic period. The results indicate that MERS and the anxiety it brought nationwide had an impact on the daily mean of books checked out in public libraries after the epidemic period rather than during the outbreak.

  • https://doi.org/10.3743/KOSIM.2015.32.4.273 인용 PDF KSCI

A study of epidemic model using SEIR model (SEIR 모형을 이용한 전염병 모형 예측 연구)

  • Do, Mijin;Kim, Jongtae;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2017

  • The epidemic model is used to model the spread of disease and to control the disease. In this research, we utilize SEIR model which is one of applications the SIR model that incorporates Exposed step to the model. The SEIR model assumes that a people in the susceptible contacted infected moves to the exposed period. After staying in the period, the infectee tends to sequentially proceed to the status of infected, recovered, and removed. This type of infection can be used for research in cases where there is a latency period after infectious disease. In this research, we collected respiratory infectious disease data for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERSCoV). Assuming that the spread of disease follows a stochastic process rather than a deterministic one, we utilized the Poisson process for the variation of infection and applied epidemic model to the stochastic chemical reaction model. Using observed pandemic data, we estimated three parameters in the SIER model; exposed rate, transmission rate, and recovery rate. After estimating the model, we applied the fitted model to the explanation of spread disease. Additionally, we include a process for generating the Exposed trajectory during the model estimation process due to the lack of the information of exact trajectory of Exposed.

  • https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2017.28.2.297 인용 PDF KSCI

Volatility Spillover Effects between BDI with CCFI and SCFI Shipping Freight Indices (BDI와 CCFI 및 BDI와 SCFI 운임지수 사이의 변동성 파급 효과)

  • Meng-Hua Li;Sok-Tae Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.127-163
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    • 2023

  • The objective of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover effects among BDI, CCFI and SCFI. This paper will divide the empirical analysis section into two periods to analyze and compare the differences in volatility spillover effect between shipping freight indices before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 separately. First, in order to compare the mean spillover impact and index lead-lag correlations in BDI and CCFI indices, along with BDI and SCFI indices before and after COVID-19, the co-integration analysis and the test of Granger causality built on the VAR model were utilized. Second, the impulse response and variance decomposition are employed in this work to investigate how the shipping freight index responds to shocks experienced by itself and other freight indices in a short period. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the results demonstrated that the BDI freight index is the Granger cause of the variable CCFI freight index. But the BDI and CCFI freight indices have no apparent lead-lag relationships after COVID-19, and this empirical result echoes the cointegration test result. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the SCFI index leads the BDI index. This study employs the VAR-BEKK-GARCH joint model to explore the volatility spillover results between dry bulk and container transport markets before and after COVID-19. The empirical results demonstrate that after COVID-19, fluctuations in the BDI index still affect the CCFI index in the maritime market. However, there is no proof of a volatility spillover relationship between the BDI and SCFI after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will provide an insight into the volatility relationship among BDI, CCFI and SCFI before and after the the COVID-19 epidemic occurred.

  • https://doi.org/10.22659/KTRA.2023.48.1.127 인용 PDF