• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.45-71
• /
• 1997

There has been considerable research recently on uncertainty handling in the fields of artificial intelligence and knowledge-based system. Various numerical and non-numerical methods have been proposed for representing and propagating uncertainty in knowledge-based system. The Bayesian method, the Dempster-Shafer's Evidence Theory, the Certainty Factor model and the Fuzzy Set Theory are most frequently appeared in the knowledge-based system. Each of these four methods views uncertainty from a different perspective and propagates it differently. There is no single method which can handle uncertainty properly in all kinds of knowledge-based systems' domain. Therefore a knowledge-based system will work more effectively when the uncertainty handling method in the system fits to the system's environment. This paper proposed a framework for selecting proper uncertainty handling methods in knowledge-based system with respect to characteristics of problem domain and cognitive styles of experts. A schema with strategic/operational and unstructured/structured classification is employed to differenciate domain. And a schema with systematic/intuitive and preceptive/receptive classification is employed to differenciate experts' cognitive style. The characteristics of uncertainty handling methods are compared with characteristics of problem domains and cognitive styles respectively. Then a proper uncertainty handling method is proposed for each category.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.51 no.3
• /
• pp.419-434
• /
• 2023

Purpose: Measurement results obtained under non-ideal measurement environment conditions may contain uncertain factors. As a result, the reliability of measurement results may be deteriorated. In this study, we tried to find ways to improve quality by evaluating and applying measurement uncertainty based on GUM. Methods: In the flatness measurement of semiconductor parts, uncertainty factors that could occur under actual environmental conditions of workers were derived, and measurement uncertainties were calculated, and methods for minimizing the main factors affecting the measurement results were analyzed. Results: Depending on the part and the coordinate measuring machine, it was shown that the effect of dispersion caused by repeated measurements as type A uncertainty and the effect of the calibration results of equipment as type B uncertainty have the main influence. Conclusion: Depending on the uncertainty factors of type A and type B and the influence of the total expanded uncertainty, the central value and confidence interval of the initial measurement results showed fluctuations. It is considered that analysis and measures for the main uncertainty factors are needed as quality improvement in the industrial field.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.331-341
• /
• 2018

Hazardous air pollutants(HAPs) in the atmosphere are regulated as major air pollutants in Korea by the Air Pollution Control Act. In order to manage and control HAPs, accurate standards, which are traceable to the International System of Units(SI), are required. In this study, primary standard gas mixtures(PSMs) of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) which are specified as HAPs were developed at $1{\mu}mol/mol$ levels. The selected fourteen VOCs include Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, m-Xylene, Styrene, o-Xylene, Chloroform, 1,1,2-Trichloroethane, Trichloroethylene, Tetrachloroethylene, 1,1-Dichloroethane, Carbon tetrachloride, 1,3-Butadiene, and Dichloromethane. The HAPs PSMs were gravimetrically prepared in aluminum cylinders and their consistency was verified within the relative expanded uncertainty of 0.71% (k=2). Potential adsorption loss onto the internal surface of cylinders was estimated by cylinder-to-cylinder division method. No adsorption loss was observed within the uncerainty of 0.53%. The long-term stability of the HAPs PSMs was evaluated comparing with freshly prepared HAPs PSMs. The HAPs PSMs were stable for one year within the uncertainty of 0.38%. The final uncertainty of the PSMs was determined by combining the preparation uncertainty, verification uncertainty, and stability uncertainty. Finally, traceable and stable HAPs PSMs at $1{\mu}mol/mol$ levels were developed with the uncertainty of less than 0.76% in high-pressure aluminum cylinders.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.176-182
• /
• 2012

This paper presents a new approach to risk comparison in uncertain environment. Based on the uncertainty theory, some uncertain risk measures and risk comparison rules are proposed. Afterward the bridges are built between uncertain risk measures and risk comparison rules. Finally, several comparable examples are given.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.361-368
• /
• 2015

This paper reports an unscented Kalman filter approach for localization of a mobile robot in an indoor environment. The method proposes a new model of measurement uncertainty which adjusts the error covariance according to the measured distance. The method also uses non-zero off diagonal values in error covariance matrices of motion uncertainty and measurement uncertainty. The method is tested through experiments in an indoor environment of 100*40 m working space using a differential drive robot which uses Laser range finder as an exteroceptive sensor. The results compare the localization performance of the proposed method with the conventional method which doesn't use adaptive measurement uncertainty model. Also, the experiment verifies the improvement due to non-zero off diagonal elements in covariance matrices. This paper contributes to implementing and evaluating a practical UKF approach for mobile robot localization.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
• /
• v.30
• /
• pp.12.1-12.7
• /
• 2015

Objectives In South Korea, health insurance data are used as material for the health insurance of national whole subject. In general, health insurance data could be useful for estimating prevalence or incidence rate that is representative of the actual value in a population. The purpose of this study was to apply the concept of episode of care (EoC) in the utilization of health insurance data in the field of environmental epidemiology and to propose an improved methodology through an uncertainty assessment of disease course and outcome. Methods In this study, we introduced the concept of EoC as a methodology to utilize health insurance data in the field of environmental epidemiology. The characterization analysis of the course and outcome of applying the EoC concept to health insurance data was performed through an uncertainty assessment. Results The EoC concept in this study was applied to heat stroke (International Classification of Disease, 10th revision, code T67). In the comparison of results between before and after applying the EoC concept, we observed a reduction in the deviation of daily claims after applying the EoC concept. After that, we categorized context, model, and input uncertainty and characterized these uncertainties in three dimensions by using uncertainty typology. Conclusions This study is the first to show the process of constructing episode data for environmental epidemiological studies by using health insurance data. Our results will help in obtaining representative results for the processing of health insurance data in environmental epidemiological research. Furthermore, these results could be used in the processing of health insurance data in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.14-28
• /
• 2020

Future climate change may affect the hydro-thermal and biogeochemical characteristics of dam reservoirs, the most important water resources in Korea. Thus, scientific projection of the impact of climate change on the reservoir environment, factoring uncertainties, is crucial for sustainable water use. The purpose of this study was to predict the future water temperature and stratification structure of the Soyanggang Reservoir in response to a total of 42 scenarios, combining two climate scenarios, seven GCM models, one surface runoff model, and three wind scenarios of hydrodynamic model, and to quantify the uncertainty of each modeling step and scenario. Although there are differences depending on the scenarios, the annual reservoir water temperature tended to rise steadily. In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the upper water temperature is expected to rise by 0.029 ℃ (±0.012)/year and 0.048 ℃ (±0.014)/year, respectively. These rise rates are correspond to 88.1 % and 85.7 % of the air temperature rise rate. Meanwhile, the lower water temperature is expected to rise by 0.016 ℃ (±0.009)/year and 0.027 ℃ (±0.010)/year, respectively, which is approximately 48.6 % and 46.3 % of the air temperature rise rate. Additionally, as the water temperatures rises, the stratification strength of the reservoir is expected to be stronger, and the number of days when the temperature difference between the upper and lower layers exceeds 5 ℃ increases in the future. As a result of uncertainty quantification, the uncertainty of the GCM models showed the highest contribution with 55.8 %, followed by 30.8 % RCP scenario, and 12.8 % W2 model.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.39-55
• /
• 2006

Pioneer brand and follower brand show differences in their perception of the environmental uncertainty. Market pioneer brand companies think that the environment is relatively simple and doesn't change much, whereas follower bland companies think that the environment is complicated and changes a lot. For market pioneer brand companies, among dynamism on the environment lever, there was less potential for the environment and parts, and government restrictions compared to follower brand companies. Also the complexity of the environment level complicated compared to the follower brand companies in areas such as competition for consumers with rival companies, materials, resources of equipment and parts, government restrictions, and the amount of change of the market's preference of the product.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.191-201
• /
• 2016

Stern bearing is a key component of marine propulsion plant. Its environment is diverse, working condition changeable, and condition severe, so that stern bearing load is of strong time variability, which directly affects the safety and reliability of the system and the normal navigation of ships. In this paper, three affecting factors of the stern bearing load such as hull deformation, propeller hydrodynamic vertical force and bearing wear are calculated and characterized by random theory. The uncertainty mathematical model of stern bearing load is established to research the relationships between factors and uncertainty load of stern bearing. The validity of calculation mathematical model and results is verified by examples and experiment yet. Therefore, the research on the uncertainty load of stern bearing has important theoretical significance and engineering practical value.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.94-101
• /
• 2013

It is well known that uncertainty associated with soil sampling is bigger than that with analysis. In this research, uncertainties for soil sampling when assessing TPH and BTEX concentration in soils were quantified based on actual field data. It is almost impossible to assess exact contamination of the site regardless how carefully devised for sampling. Uncertainties associated with sample reduction for further chemical analysis were quantified approximately 10 times larger than those associated with core sampling on site. Bigger uncertainties occur when contamination level is low, sample quantity is small, and soil particle is coarse. To minimize the uncertainties on field, homogenization of soil sample is necessary and its procedures are proposed in this research as well.