• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.103-115
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• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• 대기
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.367-379
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• 2022

In this paper, the evaluation of the performance of Korea Meteorological Administratio (KMA) Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) is presented by assessing the effects of larger ensemble size and carrying out the test using different initial conditions for hindcast in sub-seasonal to seasonal scales. The number of ensemble members increases from 3 to 7. The Ratio of Predictable Components (RPC) approaches the appropriate signal magnitude with increase of ensemble size. The improvement of annual variability is shown for all basic variables mainly in mid-high latitude. Over the East Asia region, there are enhancements especially in 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind fields. It reveals possibility to improve the performance of East Asian monsoon. Also, the reliability tends to become better as the ensemble size increases in summer than winter. To assess the effects of using different initial conditions, the area-mean values of normalized bias and correlation coefficients are compared for each basic variable for hindcast according to the four initial dates. The results have better performance when the initial date closest to the forecasting time is used in summer. On the seasonal scale, it is better to use four initial dates, where the maximum size of the ensemble increases to 672, mainly in winter. As the use of larger ensemble size, therefore, it is most efficient to use two initial dates for 60-days prediction and four initial dates for 6-months prediction, similar to the current Time-Lagged ensemble method.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.763-770
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• 2002

The objective of the study was to investigate skin temperature responses of Hanbok when it was worn. Two healthy females(average 21 years, 155cm and 60kg were exposed to a climatic chamber(Room Temp. $21{\pm}1^{\circ}C,\;52{\pm}2%R.H.$, 0.15m/s). During the experiment, rectal temperature, skin temperature of 9 areas, clothing microclimate, subjective sensation were measured. Chima and Jogory to be made of silk nobang(SN) or Ramie were worn for summer. Polyester(P) Chima and Jogori(R) could be wort for spring and autumn. For winter, silk Chima, Jogori(S) and Durumagi(D) were commonly worn. Rectal temperature was high in order of naked(N), R, SN, P, S, D. However Mean skin temperature was reversely high in order of D, S, SN, R, P, naked. In naked, skin temperature was high in order of head, trunk upper extremity and lower extremity. But on wearing of Hanbok, it was the highest at the chest except head regardless of kinds of clothing ensembles. Skin temperature of upper arm was secondly highest on wearing the silk ensemble and the Durumagi ensemble, but skin temperature of buttock was secondly highest on wearing the silk nobang ensemble and the ramie ensemble. Skin temperature on wearing the silk ensemble was generally higher than those on other clothing ensembles. Local and mean skin temperatures on wearing the silk ensemble and the Durumagj ensemble were generally higher than on other clothing ensembles. Heat resistance of the fabric might have affected on the local skin temperature.

• 대기
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.103-113
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• 2020

In this study, we analyzed and developed the monitoring system in order to confirm the effect of observations on forecast sensitivity on ensemble-based data assimilation. For this purpose, we developed the Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to observation (EFSO) monitoring system based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system coupled with Korean Integrated Model (KIM). We calculated 24 h error variance of each of observations and then classified as beneficial or detrimental effects. In details, the relative rankings were according to their magnitude and analyzed the forecast sensitivity by region for north, south hemisphere and tropics. We performed cycle experiment in order to confirm the EFSO result whether reliable or not. According to the evaluation of the EFSO monitoring, GPSRO was classified as detrimental observation during the specified period and reanalyzed by data-denial experiment. Data-denial experiment means that we detect detrimental observation using the EFSO and then repeat the analysis and forecast without using the detrimental observations. The accuracy of forecast in the denial of detrimental GPSRO observation is better than that in the default experiment using all of the GPSRO observation. It means that forecast skill score can be improved by not assimilating observation classified as detrimental one by the EFSO monitoring system.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제13권10호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2022

Purpose: Support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble has been proposed to improve classification performance of Credit risk recently. However, currently used fusion strategies do not evaluate the importance degree of the output of individual component SVM classifier when combining the component predictions to the final decision. To deal with this problem, this paper designs a support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble method based on fuzzy integral, which aggregates the outputs of separate component SVMs with importance of each component SVM. Research design, data, and methodology: This paper designs a personal credit risk evaluation index system including 16 indicators and discusses a support vector machines (SVMs) ensemble method based on fuzzy integral for designing a credit risk assessment system to discriminate good creditors from bad ones. This paper randomly selects 1500 sample data of personal loan customers of a commercial bank in China 2015-2020 for simulation experiments. Results: By comparing the experimental result SVMs ensemble with the single SVM, the neural network ensemble, the proposed method outperforms the single SVM, and neural network ensemble in terms of classification accuracy. Conclusions: The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher classification accuracy than other classification methods, which confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

• Journal of Korea Artificial Intelligence Association
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.7-14
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• 2024

In this paper, we explore the application of RNA-sequencing data and ensemble machine learning to predict lung cancer and treatment strategies for lung cancer, a leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The research utilizes Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM models to analyze gene expression profiles from extensive datasets, aiming to enhance predictive accuracy for lung cancer prognosis. The methodology focuses on preprocessing RNA-seq data to standardize expression levels across samples and applying ensemble algorithms to maximize prediction stability and reduce model overfitting. Key findings indicate that ensemble models, especially XGBoost, substantially outperform traditional predictive models. Significant genetic markers such as ADGRF5 is identified as crucial for predicting lung cancer outcomes. In conclusion, ensemble learning using RNA-seq data proves highly effective in predicting lung cancer, suggesting a potential shift towards more precise and personalized treatment approaches. The results advocate for further integration of molecular and clinical data to refine diagnostic models and improve clinical outcomes, underscoring the critical role of advanced molecular diagnostics in enhancing patient survival rates and quality of life. This study lays the groundwork for future research in the application of RNA-sequencing data and ensemble machine learning techniques in clinical settings.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.290-297
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• 2024

We investigate the efficacy of ensemble learning methods, specifically the soft voting technique, for enhancing heart disease prediction accuracy. Our study uniquely combines Logistic Regression, SVM with RBF Kernel, and Random Forest models in a soft voting ensemble to improve predictive performance. We demonstrate that this approach outperforms individual models in diagnosing heart disease. Our research contributes to the field by applying a well-curated dataset with normalization and optimization techniques, conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis of different machine learning models, and showcasing the superior performance of the soft voting ensemble in medical diagnosis. This multifaceted approach allows us to provide a thorough evaluation of the soft voting ensemble's effectiveness in the context of heart disease prediction. We evaluate our models based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the soft voting ensemble technique achieves higher accuracy and robustness in heart disease prediction compared to individual classifiers. This study advances the application of machine learning in medical diagnostics, offering a novel approach to improve heart disease prediction. Our findings have significant implications for early detection and management of heart disease, potentially contributing to better patient outcomes and more efficient healthcare resource allocation.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.139-157
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• 2016

앙상블 분류기란 개별 분류기보다 더 좋은 성과를 내기 위해 다수의 분류기를 결합하는 것을 의미한다. 이와 같은 앙상블 분류기는 단일 분류기의 일반화 성능을 향상시키는데 매우 유용한 것으로 알려져 있다. 랜덤 서브스페이스 앙상블 기법은 각각의 기저 분류기들을 위해 원 입력 변수 집합으로부터 랜덤하게 입력 변수 집합을 선택하며 이를 통해 기저 분류기들을 다양화 시키는 기법이다. k-최근접 이웃(KNN: k nearest neighbor)을 기저 분류기로 하는 랜덤 서브스페이스 앙상블 모형의 성과는 단일 모형의 성과를 개선시키는 데 효과적인 것으로 알려져 있으며, 이와 같은 랜덤 서브스페이스 앙상블의 성과는 각 기저 분류기를 위해 랜덤하게 선택된 입력 변수 집합과 KNN의 파라미터 k의 값이 중요한 영향을 미친다. 하지만, 단일 모형을 위한 k의 최적 선택이나 단일 모형을 위한 입력 변수 집합의 최적 선택에 관한 연구는 있었지만 KNN을 기저 분류기로 하는 앙상블 모형에서 이들의 최적화와 관련된 연구는 없는 것이 현실이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 KNN을 기저 분류기로 하는 앙상블 모형의 성과 개선을 위해 각 기저 분류기들의 k 파라미터 값과 입력 변수 집합을 동시에 최적화하는 새로운 형태의 앙상블 모형을 제안하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 방법은 앙상블을 구성하게 될 각각의 KNN 기저 분류기들에 대해 최적의 앙상블 성과가 나올 수 있도록 각각의 기저 분류기가 사용할 파라미터 k의 값과 입력 변수를 유전자 알고리즘을 이용해 탐색하였다. 제안한 모형의 검증을 위해 국내 기업의 부도 예측 관련 데이터를 가지고 다양한 실험을 하였으며, 실험 결과 제안한 모형이 기존의 앙상블 모형보다 기저 분류기의 다양화와 예측 성과 개선에 효과적임을 알 수 있었다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.93-116
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• 2010

불법현금융통 적발모형 개발에 앙상블 접근방법을 사용하였다. 불법현금융통은 국내 신용카드사의 손익에 영향을 미치며 최근 국제화되고 있음에도 불구하고 학문적인 접근이 이루어지지 않았다. 부정행위 적발모형(Fraud Detection Model, FDM)은 데이터 불균형 문제로 인하여 좋은 성능을 얻기 어려운데, 다수의 모형을 결합하는 앙상블이 대안으로 제시되어 왔다. 앙상블에 포함된 모형들의 다양성이 보장된다면 단일모형에 비해 더 좋은 성능을 보인다는 점은 이미 인정되고 있으며, 최근 연구 결과는 학습된 모든 기본모형들을 사용하는 것보다 적절한 기본모형들만 선택하여 앙상블에 포함시키는 것이 바람직하다는 것이다. 본 논문에서는 효과적인 불법현금융통 적발을 위하여 축소된 앙상블 기법을 사용하는데, 정확성과 다양성 척도를 사용하여 앙상블에 참여할 기본모형을 선택하는 것이다. 다양성은 앙상블을 구성하는 기본모형들 사이의 불일치 (Disagreement or Ambiguity)를 의미하는데, FDM에 내재된 데이터 불균형문제를 고려하여 두 가지 측면에 중점을 두었다. 첫째, 학습 자료의 추출 과정에서 다양성을 확보하기 위한 소수 범주의 과잉추출 방법과 적절한 훈련 방법에 대해 설명하였다. 둘째, 소수범주에 초점을 맞추어 기존의 다양성 척도를 효과적인 척도로 변형시키고, 전진추가법과 후진소거법의 동적 다양성 계산법을 도입하여 앙상블에 참여할 기본모형을 평가하였다. 실험에 사용된 학습 알고리즘은 신경망, 의사결정수와 로짓 회귀분석이었으며, 동질적 앙상블과 이질적 앙상블을 구성하여 성능평가를 하였다. 실험결과 불법현금융통 적발모형에 있어 축소된 앙상블은 모든 기본모형이 포함된 앙상블과 성능 차이가 없었다. 축소된 앙상블은 앙상블 구성의 복잡성을 감소시키고 구현을 용이하게 한다는 점에서 FDM에서도 유력한 모형 수립 접근방법이 될 수 있음을 보였다.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2022

알고리즘을 이용하여 금융 상품을 거래하는 알고리즘 트레이딩은 시장의 많은 요인들로 인해 그 결과가 안정적이지 못한 문제가 있다. 이 문제를 완화시키기 위해 트레이딩 알고리즘들을 조합한 앙상블 기법들이 제안되었다. 하지만 이 앙상블 방법에도 여러 문제가 존재한다. 첫째, 앙상블의 필요 요건인 앙상블에 포함된 알고리즘의 최소 성능 요건(랜덤 이상)을 만족시키도록, 트레이딩 알고리즘을 선택하지 못할 수 있다는 점이다. 둘째, 과거에 우수한 성능을 보인 앙상블 모델이 미래에도 우수한 성능을 보일 것이라는 보장이 없다는 점이다. 이 문제점들을 해결하기 위해 앙상블 모델에 포함되는 트레이딩 알고리즘들을 선택하는 방법을 다음과 같이 제안한다. 과거의 데이터를 기반으로 상위 성능의 앙상블 모델들에 포함된 트레이딩 알고리즘들의 기여도를 측정한다. 그러나 이 과거 데이터에만 기반 된 기여도들은 과거의 데이터가 충분히 많지 않고 과거 데이터의 불확실성이 반영되어 있지 않기 때문에 디리클레 분포를 사용하여 기여도 분포를 근사시키고, 기여도 분포에서 기여도 값들을 샘플하여 불확실성을 반영한다. 과거 데이터로부터 구한 트레이딩 알고리즘의 기여도 분포를 기반으로 Transformer을 훈련하여 미래의 기여도를 예측한다. 예측된 미래 기여도가 높은 트레이딩 알고리즘들을 앙상블 모델에 선택하여 포함시킨다. 실험을 통하여 제안된 앙상블 방법이 기존 앙상블 방법들과 비교하여 우수한 성능을 보임을 입증하였다.